Hi! I'm a new member. I'm also inexperienced in using forums, so please excuse me if this question has been addressed elsewhere before.
I'm curious to know how TIGHAR responds to the fact that dozens of elderly residents in the Marshall Islands told Fred Goerner and other researchers that they remembered seeing a caucasian female pilot and a male companion in the custody of Japanese soldiers there in the summer of 1937. These reports seem too numerous to have been contrived or part of some conspiracy. Who else but Earhart and Noonan could the two aviators have been? TIGHAR's theory is reasonable and fascinating, but it's undermined by the apparent credibility of a Marshall Islands crash landing. Any comments?
For me the biggest argument against this theory is the lack of official written evidence. ...
For me the biggest argument against this theory is the lack of official written evidence.
For me the biggest argument against this theory is the lack of official written evidence. ...
But that's the greatest strength of any conspiracy theory whatsoever.
The less evidence there is of a coverup, the greater evidence that very absence of evidence provides about the power wielded by the conspirators! 8)
We have a major conspiracy unfolding right here, Marty! Gerry Bruder claims to be a newbie, and his post count reads 1. But (and here is the conspiracy part) his title is "Administrator", JUST LIKE YOURS! What are you guys trying to pull here? Hmmm?
We have a major conspiracy unfolding right here, Marty! Gerry Bruder claims to be a newbie, and his post count reads 1. But (and here is the conspiracy part) his title is "Administrator", JUST LIKE YOURS! What are you guys trying to pull here? Hmmm?
Ah yes the big coverup by the men in black!!
Buffalo Rose!
1. why would the US send AE/FN on a spying mission without some form of training and equipment to boot (+ an audit trail of official documents)
I think a lot of people believe the spy theory also because that AE and her husband talked to the government, or something like that. If they did, I'm sure it was no more than what to do if she were to get lost.
Hi! I'm a new member. I'm also inexperienced in using forums, so please excuse me if this question has been addressed elsewhere before. I'm curious to know how TIGHAR responds to the fact that dozens of elderly residents in the Marshall Islands told Fred Goerner and other researchers that they remembered seeing a caucasian female pilot and a male companion in the custody of Japanese soldiers there in the summer of 1937. These reports seem too numerous to have been contrived or part of some conspiracy. Who else but Earhart and Noonan could the two aviators have been? TIGHAR's theory is reasonable and fascinating, but it's undermined by the apparent credibility of a Marshall Islands crash landing. Any comments? Thanks.
Gerry Bruder
Several points. First, many of the folks who subscribe to the Japanese-capture theory don't think that AE and FN were spying, but rather simply that the two crash-landed in the Japanese-controlled Marshalls (while trying to find the British-held Gilbert Islands) and were picked up.
The Japanese may have thought they were spies or knew they were just innocent, lost aviators. Either way, the Japanese would have been reluctant to let the two go or even to announce the rescue/detention to the world. Remember, Japan was illegally fortifying the Marshalls and other islands in the South Pacific, in violation of an official World War I mandate. The Japanese would not have wanted AE and FN to return to the States with information about soldiers, airfields, etc. It would have been safer, the theory goes, to secretly detain the two indefinitely and let the world assume they had died at sea.
According to researchers' books, island residents volunteered descriptions of AE and FN. It wasn't a case of researchers asking leading questions such as, "did you see a tall, slender, caucasian, short-haired female pilot and a male companion in the custody of Japanese soldiers in the summer of 1937?" Islanders reported various, sometimes conflicting details about the fliers, which is understandable; the first researchers arrived 30 years after the disappearance, and by then memories would have been hazy. News of the capture spread quickly and drew dozens of curious onlookers. The Japanese moved AE and FN to various detention centers, and eventually to a prison on Saipan, the regional headquarters. That's why different islanders saw the two in different places.
The point is, reports of the fliers in Japanese custody are too numerous to be dismissed as imagination or overly eager cooperation.
Finally, as a retired commercial pilot, I can assure you that the two had some back-up plan in case they couldn't find Howland Island. No sane pilot continues searching for a destination until the fuel runs out. Instead, pilots save enough fuel to hightail it to an alternate. Was AE's and FN's intended alternate the Gilbert Islands or the Phoenix Group?
Gerry, just FYI: There is a short discussion of this topic in the FAQ section:
http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/forum/FAQs/captured.htm
IF Japanese Naval vessels were in the area of the "landing", they could have been picked up and taken to the Marshalls, and/or other places, which might account for the sightings.In my view, it is much easier to suppose that the Helpful Witness sightings were all wrong rather than to imagine a Japanese fleet on patrol between the Marshall Islands and Howland. If they rescued America's First Lady of the Air near Howland, why would they imprison her?
On another note----any Electra parts discovered in the ROV missions?
... In my mind, finding evidence of the plane off the reef would end the speculation that she "landed" there, and didn't arrive there by other means.
... Wasn't there a commercial Japanese ship in the area early on?
Wasn't there in the past a theory by someone that the ayatolha (sp) had got the French to lift the plane of NikU and send it to Iran?
It was more complicated than that. AE helped Vidal get and keep his job in FDR's government.
Has Wayne Green's story been checked out?
While I find it logical the government would ask for surveillance favors (my missionary grandparents were occasionally asked for the same), referring to the wrong plane is hardly the path to credibility (for Green or me!).
Thank you, and I'll do more fact-checking next time.
To be fair to Mr. Green, I just found another quote (http://www.waynegreen.com/wayne/news.html):
"We moved from Philly across the river to Merchantville, NJ, to be closer to the airport. I'd often ride my bike to the airport after school and play around the planes…including Amelia Earhart's Lockheed Vega. Well, I think is was the Vega, but it may have been the Lockheed Orion. It was the nicest plane at the airport."
I'll start fact-checking some of the other details ...
I should probably add that even though this has ended up under "capture" theories, I don't necessarily think a possible government surveillance component to her flight precludes crashing onto Niku.
... I have spent some time in Asia and have been told by more than a few Asians that we (Americans) all look alike to them, as most Asians looked very similar to me until I had been there for some time. I don't believe the Asians had seen many Europeans (just guessing) so someone of European descent would stick out in there mind but I doubt they could pick any specific one out a line-up then but is even stretched further to think they could 30 years later.
Conspiracy Theories normally throw out evidence that doesn't support their case. TIGHAR does not, to wit: publishing the fact that they found shell casing in the 7 site proving that others (the Coasties) could well of been the source of the evidence.
Lastly TIGHAR is not close minded about the other theories, as they pitched in on the grave dig in Saipan (https://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Tinian/tigharstinian.htm) which is completely against the Niku theory. Lastly, their theory evolves as the evidence mounts such as where on the reef the plane landed and such.
I'm probably racking up muck here but was nosing around the web and came accross this site.
LEGERDEMAIN With the latest startling revelation regarding the fate of Amelia Earhart! (http://davidkbowman.com/)
Another link that you may or may not be aware of Amelia Earhart's Survival and Repatriation: Myth or Reality? (2005)by Alex Mandel (http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Amelia_Earhart's_Survival_and_Repatriation:_Myth_or_Reality%3F), quite a lot to read on the subject. Done a search on his name on the forum and nothing comes up.
I'm probably racking up muck here but was nosing around the web and came accross this site.
LEGERDEMAIN With the latest startling revelation regarding the fate of Amelia Earhart! (http://davidkbowman.com/)
OK, I've added the title to "Alternative Theories." (http://tighar.org/wiki/Alternative_theories)
Have you read the book? Got a review of it somewhere? How should it be classified?
Date: Wed, 12 Dec 2007 21:24:53
From: Karen Hoy
Subject: Re: Bolam theory
For William Webster-Garman,
Your theory makes perfect sense. It's all the fault of cute aliens
(isn't everything?)
Jokes aside, there is a published book entitled "Legerdemain" which
is described as "a startling new book on the disappearance of Amelia
Earhart."
This is an extremely badly written, edited and indexed rehash of the
Bolam theory, by David Bowman, who needs to be sent back to 4th grade
to learn how to write coherently.
It seems that everything, from the 1938 Hawaii Clipper crash to a
French message in a bottle, were really connected to Earhart's
disappearance. And AE was really Irene!
This book makes "Amelia Earhart Lives" look like brilliantly written
research. The only startling thing is that anyone actually bought it.
Goodnight, Irene,
Karen Hoy
This book was mentioned on the old Forum in late 2007 (http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Forum/Forum_Archives/200712.txt) by Karen Hoy: ...
Short's letter to his father (http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Documents/Letters/Short.pdf) is on the TIGHAR website.
The only way to make an Electra do 250 mph would be in a power dive. There was no engine that could be put on the airplane that could make it go that fast.
Short's letter to his father (http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Documents/Letters/Short.pdf) is on the TIGHAR website.There were about 130 different models of the Wasp engine (although some models were never built) and none produced more than the 550 horsepower continuous rating of Earhart's S3H1 engines so there were no more powerful engines that could have been installed. The next more powerful P&W engines had two rows of cylinders, weighed a whole lot more, and anybody would notice the extra row of cylinders and these engines would not fit in the cowlings.
The only way to make an Electra do 250 mph would be in a power dive. There was no engine that could be put on the airplane that could make it go that fast.
Short's letter to his father (http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Documents/Letters/Short.pdf) is on the TIGHAR website.
". . . I wonder how much of these Japanese spy rumors could have come from the planning that lead up to the Battle of Pearl Harbor."
While I beleive that the Nikumaroro Hypthoesis as the most probable, I wonder how much of these Japanese spy rumors could have come from the planning that lead up to the Battle of Pearl Harbor. It wonder how many of these islands were used along the path. See this link: http://marshall.csu.edu.au/Marshalls/html/WWII/SeaPlaneOps.htmlLet's see. From July 2, 1937 to December 7, 1941 is 1,461 days. To put this in perspective, 1,461 days ago the economy was doing fine, the unemployment rate was just 4.9% and the housing bubble had not yet burst. We were not at war with Japan and, if fact, Earhart originally planned to land in Tokyo.
IMHO----I personally think the Japaneese were fortifying the Mandated Islands. Alot of work was going on at Truk, as we have seen. I also think that is someone were to have gone there, and was captured, there would not be any record of their demise.Also see:
With that in mind, IF AE did somehow manage to find herself at Kwajalein, or Truk, or even Saipan, I dont think we would know about it. Even as famous as she was, Japan cerainly would not tell the world that they captured her. Even in 1937, when our military wasnt ready for war.
I dont think she overflew the Marshalls. She was on course, and on schedule as she passed over the Gilberts. To have made a 90* left turn NORTH to fly over the Marshalls, a LONG WAY AWAY, then try to make it back to Howland, stretches even my vivid imagination. NOT to say that she didnt end up at Kwajalein, Truk, or even Saipan, because evena s far fetched as it sounds, anything can be possible, until proven otherwise.
Stephen does bring up and interesting theory on Japaneese testing things. Yes they could have sent ships out, testing the waters so to speak. (Not sure when Truk actually became operational, but I dont think it was in 1937). But, that doesnt mean that Japan wasnt out there. It is possible that AE DID land at Niku, but wasnt there when the search overflight took place. But, I think that IF she were to have been removed from the island, (unless it was on a submarine) a ship would have been noticed by the searchers.
I'm not supposed to speculate---so I wont. But you get the idea--
Tom
Should immagine a lot of the testing was going up north on the China mainland.
If I was testing 'secret' stuff then i'd try and keep it close as the further away you are the more eyes have a chance to see.
It would have been a bit of a publicity coup for the Japanese to capture the Americans pretending to be on a world record flight around the world, Amelia Earhart and Freddie Noonan (1937)
It would have been a bit of a publicity coup for the Soviet Union to capture the American pretending to be on a weather gathering flight, Francis Gary Powers (1960)
The amount of positive publicity and sympathy that the Soviet Union gained from the U2 incident was an excellent example of how to play the undercover war. I am sure the Japanese wouldn't pass up an opportunity to get a little sympathy from the rest of the world either by displaying their capture of 'American spies'.
IMHO
It would have been a bit of a publicity coup for the Japanese to capture the Americans pretending to be on a world record flight around the world, Amelia Earhart and Freddie Noonan (1937)
It would have been a bit of a publicity coup for the Soviet Union to capture the American pretending to be on a weather gathering flight, Francis Gary Powers (1960)
The amount of positive publicity and sympathy that the Soviet Union gained from the U2 incident was an excellent example of how to play the undercover war. I am sure the Japanese wouldn't pass up an opportunity to get a little sympathy from the rest of the world either by displaying their capture of 'American spies'.
IMHO
Jeff,
I don't agree. The Cold War lasted for 15 years when the U2 was shot down. There wasn't a Cold War between USA and Japan in 1937, and the Japanese aren't Soviets. If the Japs got A.E., they would have had more reasons to cover it than to make it public.
If there was a camera in the plane you destroy the film. Then you notify the world how you "rescued" Earhart and accolades all around. Is Amelia going to dispute this story?
I agree with this. For another thing the U-2 was clearly on an aerial photographic spy sortie. And was clearly a military airplane. Earhart and her Electra......well, let's say it would probably have been an embarrassing situation to have "captured" the most well known female aviatrix in the world.
If there was a camera in the plane you destroy the film. Then you notify the world how you "rescued" Earhart and accolades all around. Is Amelia going to dispute this story?
I agree with this. For another thing the U-2 was clearly on an aerial photographic spy sortie. And was clearly a military airplane. Earhart and her Electra......well, let's say it would probably have been an embarrassing situation to have "captured" the most well known female aviatrix in the world.
gl
. . .can anyone shed some light on their overall strategic aim in 37?
Do you think, maybe, that the islands, that just happened to have PAA bases, might have had other strategic value giving Japan a reason to attack them?
Perhaps the most adroit threading of treaty loopholes was Pan American Airways' establishment of regular trans-Pacific airline operations - the "China Clippers". Weekly PAA clipper service from San Francisco to Macau (via Pearl Harbor, Midway, Wake, Guam and Philippines) established a direct link and complete infrastructure from the U.S. to China - straight through the Marianas. Perhaps the best measure of the military value of PAA trans-Pacific ops - on Dec. 7 Japan attacked each and every PAA base across the Pacific.
Do you think, maybe, that the islands, that just happened to have PAA bases, might have had other strategic value giving Japan a reason to attack them?
He went into the house and told the four women that he had just heard that someone had said that Amelia had been a spy.
It doesn't matter from whom Tonsing heard the original story, he was a kid playing outside with other kids, one of them told him, since this only precipitated the event and caused him to ask the question to Amelia's mother, sister and another close cousin. The only thing he was reporting was their response to his question, which is also hearsay, but there are quite a few exceptions to the hearsay rule that allows the introduction of hearsay testimony and the "excited utterance" exception would seem to apply here as well as "statement of personal or family history."QuoteHe went into the house and told the four women that he had just heard that someone had said that Amelia had been a spy.
Gary, who was the first person who made that statement to "someone" who the declarant Professor Tonsing heard it from? I don't have to explain Third Party Hearsay to you. That statement was for lack of a better word ludicrous. I am surprised that a man with a PhD would say something like that. That comment wouldn't pass the smell test in a court of law. As an attorney, didn't you find it kind of strange or want to question him? And of course his immediate family members would scoff at such a comment.
It would have been a bit of a publicity coup for the Japanese to capture the Americans pretending to be on a world record flight around the world, Amelia Earhart and Freddie Noonan (1937)
It would have been a bit of a publicity coup for the Soviet Union to capture the American pretending to be on a weather gathering flight, Francis Gary Powers (1960)
The amount of positive publicity and sympathy that the Soviet Union gained from the U2 incident was an excellent example of how to play the undercover war. I am sure the Japanese wouldn't pass up an opportunity to get a little sympathy from the rest of the world either by displaying their capture of 'American spies'.
IMHO
Jeff,
I don't agree. The Cold War lasted for 15 years when the U2 was shot down. There wasn't a Cold War between USA and Japan in 1937, and the Japanese aren't Soviets. If the Japanese got A.E., they would have had more reasons to cover it than to make it public.