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[Don Yee]

Wondering if anyone has done a scale model test of a properly weighted Electra model to see if it would "float and fly" vs. sink. Given that Ballard didn't find anything near the shore the other hypothesis could be that it's much further off the shore if it "flew".
Don...

[Ric Gillespie]

The flying-underwater thing has never made sense to me.  Water, like air, is a fluid so the wings of an intact airplane sinking nose-first, so the theory goes, should generate "lift" and the aircraft could "glide" for a considerable distance from where it sank before reaching the bottom. 
Let's try an experiment.  Fire up your airplane and climb to whatever altitude suits you.  Now shut off the engine, take your hands and feet off the controls, and don't touch the trim.  Nothing good will happen.   Flying machines remain under control only through human guidance. The Wrights figured that out a long time ago.

[Don Yee]

Personally I never imagined it "flying" underwater, but instead I had always thought that when folks were referencing the "flying" of the plane they meant on the surface. So the tide takes out the landing gear which puts the belly of the plane on the surface of the water. The wings and fuselage allow it to "fly" along the surface of the water. The plane is carried out to sea where it eventually sinks in the way you suggest. I guess float vs. sink might be a more apt comparison. So perhaps a better question would be has anyone tested to see how quickly the plane would have sunk? I guess the longer it's on the surface the farther it could be carried out to sea before it sank.
Don...
 

[Ric Gillespie]

So perhaps a better question would be has anyone tested to see how quickly the plane would have sunk?

A Lockheed 10E that ditched off Cape Cod in 1967 floated for eight minutes, but it didn't have the large fuel tanks Earhart's airplane had.  How long NR16020 would float would depend on ow intact it was when it went over the reef edge.  The tanks had drain valves on the bell and vents in the filler ports, so if scraping along the reef on its belly compromised the drain valves the tanks would fill quickly.  When the plane slid on its belly in the Luke Field accident it came to stop in a big puddle of gasoline that, fortunately, was quickly washed down by the fire truck that was following the plane.  Bob Brandenburg calculated that with just the two 102 gallon wing tanks compromised the plane would float for 18 minutes.

To wash the airplane into the ocean there had to be a lot of water running across the reef, so it seems safe to assume there was heavy surf at the reef edge when it happened.  Anything that goes over the edge under those conditions does not peacefully float away.  Even on a calm day, a diver in the water at the reef edge gets slammed against the coral.  Having seen that environment first-hand many times, it's hard for me to imagine that airplane not sinking almost immediately in the relatively shallow water near the reef edge.