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Author Topic: Analogous reasoning: from "I would have ..." to "they must have ..."  (Read 16913 times)

john a delsing

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Re: Analogous reasoning: from "I would have ..." to "they must have ..."
« Reply #15 on: July 13, 2012, 10:12:07 PM »

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If Amelia was alive on July 9th on Gardner Island, she probably wasn't expecting Navy scout planes launched from a battleship to come zipping over.  She was probably expecting the Itasca to come moseying over the horizon

   And after she discovered the navy was searching for her by air why didn’t she place some rocks on the beach in the form of : A E   or just a big  X  on the beach, or any other of a dozen signs she could easily have made for what she had to hope for would be follow up searches.  Some of us believe she was on Gardner because we believe she was transmitting before the Lambrecht flight. Is it at all possible that Amelia might have passed away in the two days between her last transmit ion and the Lambrecht flight?  After the Lambrecht flight, what act (s) did she do, and only her, that makes you so sure it could only have been Amelia and not any of the 100 plus people who were also on Gardner for many years after this flight.
The Earth is Full
 
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Anthony Allen Roach

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Re: Analogous reasoning: from "I would have ..." to "they must have ..."
« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2012, 10:51:51 PM »

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And after she discovered the navy was searching for her by air why didn’t she place some rocks on the beach in the form of : A E   or just a big  X  on the beach, or any other of a dozen signs she could easily have made for what she had to hope for would be follow up searches.

Would those be big river rocks or some pine cones from a nice pine forest, neither of which appear to exist on Nikumaroro?

How do we know she didn't make an X in the sand after the Navy planes left?  They didn't come back.  The next documented visitors were native Gilbertese and a couple of British officers preparing to turn the place into a colony.  Maybe the markers she left were the signs of recent habitation that Lambrecht saw.  Your arguments and my arguments are too speculative to me.

The point of this thread is to point out the fallacies in reasoning with "I would have" to get to "they must have."  My post was simply pointing out that if Amelia Earhart was on Nikumaroro, she was not expecting Navy float planes to zip overhead.  She was expecting Itasca.
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john a delsing

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Re: Analogous reasoning: from "I would have ..." to "they must have ..."
« Reply #17 on: July 14, 2012, 12:26:18 PM »

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Your arguments and my arguments are too speculative to me.


River rocks?  Not  available.  Pine cones? Not available.
 Rocks: available.   Pieces of coral: available.
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Anthony Allen Roach

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Re: Analogous reasoning: from "I would have ..." to "they must have ..."
« Reply #18 on: July 14, 2012, 12:53:16 PM »

The point of this thread is to show that engaging in what you would have done, and extrapolating that they must have done that is a fallacy in logical thinking.  I'm going to give an example, and be prepared to suffer the wrath of others for not using a good example.

Several years ago I watched a program on the Discovery Channel or one of those kinds of channels.  The viewer was presented with survival scenarios based on actual historical fact, and then challenge the viewer to make a decision.  Later in the program, they reveal what the actual survivor did, and what was likely to happen with the other options.  The following case was presented.

On April 26, 1976, Lauren Elder was a passenger in a Cessna 182P on a flight from Oakland to Furnace Creek in Death Valley.  The plane crashed in the Sierra Nevada when the pilot missed Kearsarge Pass.  The wreckage ended up on a ridge above 12,000 feet about a half mile south of Mount Bradley.  The pilot and another passenger were severely injured in the crash, and died the next day.  On the first night, Ms. Elder could see the lights of Owens Valley below, but shear icy cliffs lay in that direction.  In the other direction, was miles of snowy wilderness towards Fresno.  She was dressed in blouse, a wraparound skirt, and boots with 2 inch heels.  At this point, the viewer was offered the option of walking through the woods and mountains to Fresno, or climbing down the dangerous cliff face to the Owens Valley.

I chose the option of walking to Fresno.  I based my decision on my personal experiences, having grown up in the White Mountains of Arizona, and having a lot of experience hunting, fishing, and camping.  Later in the program, the viewer was shown that this would have been a difficult trek, in thawing deep snows through miles of wilderness.

Ms. Elder did not pick my option.  In real life she spent several days climbing down the cliff face and walked into the town of Independence, California.

The point of this example is, what I would have done is not what someone else did do.
"Six the Hard Way."
 
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