I have proudly been a Tighar member for several years. I consider it an honor to belong; however, for me, the old Tighar hypothesis badly needs updating. Some members might agree with me, and I’m sure many won’t.
1. Amelia found Gardner island by running a LOP of 157/337 One of the reasons I joined TIGHAR was I was told that Amelia’s last words were something to the effect that they were running the 157/337 LOP and that if you drew a line from Howland to Gardner, that angle would be very close to 337 degrees. To the north of Howland on 157 was open water, to the south, besides Gardner island on 337 was the Phoenix group of islands acting like a ‘catcher’s mitt’ so if you missed Gardner there were other islands. This made a lot of sense to me and I became a believer. I since have found out that you can’t run a LOP of 337 from the Howland vicinity and hit Gardner, at least mot at that time of day they were there.
2. Found Gardner instead by ‘ dead reckoning ‘
This of course made sense to me, because as a pilot, I had done some ‘dead reckoning’, and there also was this catcher’s mitt theory to help if they missed Gardner and so again I believed. You probably realize how I felt when I was reminded that you can’t dead reckon to anywhere, if you first don’t know where you are starting from.
3. Catchers Mitt
Then there is the disappearance of the ‘Catcher’s Mitt’ theory ( many islands close enough together that you should run into one of them ). I guess disappearance is not the correct term as something that never was, can’t disappear.
4. Landing at Gardner Island
But the good news is I still think there is a good chance that Amelia did find Gardner, maybe by the box/search method, or maybe by pure luck. And that she landed, probably close to the Norwich wreck.
5. Post Transmits
If Amelia landed at Gardner I think most, if not all, credible transmits are real, and that would certainly include Betty and Mabel’s injuries transmits.
6. The Lambrecht Flight
If I may let me please skip ahead to the Castaway and then return.
7. The Castaway of the Seven Site
By far, in my opinion, the biggest mistake Tighar has made is the acceptance and propagation of what many would call “just another urban legend”. We have spent much money, time and effort on this seven site and everything we have found is more consistent with many other peoples of this island visiting this site than it is to just one castaway and not a single object has been found that we can trace to Amelia.
‘Old school theorists’ are going to be very reluctant to give up on this castaway of the seven site theory. I admit it is very romantic. The seven site offered many promising clues a few years ago, and after much work on our part, not one of the clues have paid off. It is now time to put the castaway theory on the back burner and move forward in more promising areas, such as her base camp for Fred and her first five days.
For those members not willing to give up on the seven site castaway, theory, then start selling the Tighar membership on another trip back to the seven site, this time to dig a little deeper; maybe to the 30 cm level, or possibly to 50 cm; or maybe we should move our search to the north or south of the seven site, we can call them the six site or the eight site, or how about moving to the east or west of the seven site. Does anyone really believe that we can generate much excitement for a ‘dig’ at the 7 west site ?
6. The Lambrecht Flight
If anyone is rethinking the castaway of the seven site being Amelia then I suggest you rethink the Lambrecht flight also. The only reason that Amelia has to be ALIVE during Lambrechts’ flight is so she can be alive and move down to the seven site and become it’s castaway, and spend the next few weeks, or possibly months, hunting, fishing, and building fires in different locations.
Amelia never set foot on the seven site. She and Fred may very well have found Gardner island and landed by the Norwich wreck, got their radio working and transmitted for five days or so, with most, if not all credible transmits being legit, (including the injury ones). Because of lack of survival training, survival preparations (extra water), 120 degree temps, and possible injuries, by weeks end, both Amelia and Fred were dead. Maybe in Amelia’s last hours, in a do a die effort, Amelia struggled to her feet and staged southward down the beach to find help or water. When the sun got too hot to continue, she spotted the shade from a large ren tree; she crawled up to it, closed her eyes and died.
This is the only hypothesis that is short, simple (occam’s razor anyone ?) and fits the evidence Tighar has found about Amelia, her disappearance, the post transmits, and the Lambrecht flights. For those members not wanting to accept this hypothesis, there is always Gary LaPook’s ‘crashed and sank’, but frankly I think that that one sucks.