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Author Topic: Did Earhart carry parachutes on the flight to Howland  (Read 332312 times)

Ric Gillespie

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Re: Did Earhart carry parachutes on the flight to Howland
« Reply #105 on: February 09, 2012, 11:52:50 AM »

Could the parachute explain the white arrowhead feature that was never resolved?

We think we located the area in 2007 and searched it with metal deterctors.  Nothing there.
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Tom Swearengen

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Re: Did Earhart carry parachutes on the flight to Howland
« Reply #106 on: February 09, 2012, 12:07:15 PM »

Well harry, I'm not a nuclear physist, so Im just asking the question. WE are talking about navigating in 1937, not 2012. no GPS, no DF, and apparently no real data  for Noonan because of the clouds. Ric is right, and that was the point to my question----you dont know where you are along that 157/337 line. And probably the shape of Gardner wasnt what he had on his maps----so there we are. back to the stone ages, and very unprepared. 
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: Did Earhart carry parachutes on the flight to Howland
« Reply #107 on: February 09, 2012, 12:36:50 PM »


Tom
My initial comment was prefaced by IMHO and was just that, an opinion.  It wasn't directed at your questions which are well founded and to the point and are questions that we all have asked.

I was directing my post to express my opinion that kicking into "survival mode" , assuming that they( AE/FN) had expected to be searched for and rescued in a not too distant future, wasn't their first order of business.  I think that their first order of business  was to find and fix whatever it was that,apparently, had  prevented them from hearing the Itasca.
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Tom Swearengen

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Re: Did Earhart carry parachutes on the flight to Howland
« Reply #108 on: February 09, 2012, 01:40:50 PM »

My Bust Harry--
not having been in a 'survival 'situation due to a forced landing on a deserted Atoll in the pacific ocean, I would think I would first survive. ( kinda like --aviate. navigate , communicate)
The had to be aware that they were at least a day or 2 from being sighted at the best case scenario. (Since the Itasca was 20+ hours at full speed).
I have to think that having to go into survival mode was the last thing on AE's mind when preparing to leave Lae. With Fred apparently injured, she was probably on her own to figure out what to do. They may even have stayed in the Electra at nite, and stayed under the trees  during the day. WE know that somewhere between July 6 and 9, the Electra went to whereever, so part part of there shelter did too. I say this, because the Colorado flight didnt see anything. So there after, AE or both of them were in full survival mode. But ---their preparations cost them. My theory of course.
Tom
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Did Earhart carry parachutes on the flight to Howland
« Reply #109 on: February 09, 2012, 03:08:23 PM »

Well harry, I'm not a nuclear physist, so Im just asking the question. WE are talking about navigating in 1937, not 2012. no GPS, no DF, and apparently no real data  for Noonan because of the clouds. Ric is right, and that was the point to my question----you dont know where you are along that 157/337 line. And probably the shape of Gardner wasnt what he had on his maps----so there we are. back to the stone ages, and very unprepared.
I've explained this navigation before, they would know how far south of Howland they were, see prior post here.

gl
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Did Earhart carry parachutes on the flight to Howland
« Reply #110 on: February 09, 2012, 05:07:20 PM »

I've explained this navigation before, they would know how far south of Howland they were, see prior post here.

Quoting from your previous post:

"...they would not have proceeded more than 110 NM south from the D.R. position  ..."
"Noonan knew how far they had flown since the last fix and would have allowed the appropriate offset for the intercept point on the sunline LOP."
"...then Noonan would have aimed 110 NM,...."
"They would then fly 220 NM south-southeast ..."
"...they would still not proceed more than 110 NM further to the south-southeast ..."
"...they would have had to have been an additional 58 NM off to the right of the DR ..."
"Using this LOP, Noonan would have known how far he was north or south ..."
" ... Noonan could have determined how far they were south of Howland and so would have let them know that they had to turn around ..."

Replace all those "woulds" and would haves" with "could" or "could have" or "might" or "might have" and it becomes clear that your post is pure speculation.  Based on your own considerable knowledge and experience, the actions you describe are what you believe Noonan could have or perhaps even should have done- and I'm not saying he didn't do them - but to then say with certainty that they would know how far south of Howland they were is patently false.
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Tom Swearengen

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Re: Did Earhart carry parachutes on the flight to Howland
« Reply #111 on: February 09, 2012, 07:04:34 PM »

Gary----I'm not trying to be a dumb ass---one of the first radio messages stated "weather cloudy". And where did she pass over the Ontario for a fix? Did I miss that? Seems to me if she overflew the Ontario, she would have had some communication about that, at least to let someone know that she was on course. I understand DR, and you adjust your course by taking a fix on a landmark and compare it to your heading. BUT---what landmarks are there in the middle of the pacific? And---if it was cloudy, how was Noonan going to shoot a star sight? Last I saw, flying over the ocean at nite was pretty dark.
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Irvine John Donald

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Re: Did Earhart carry parachutes on the flight to Howland
« Reply #112 on: February 09, 2012, 07:47:27 PM »

Gary. Seems that you're in the "woulds".  You need to get out on the green where you "could" drive for the hole. Get in the game Gary. LOL
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Did Earhart carry parachutes on the flight to Howland
« Reply #113 on: February 09, 2012, 09:02:54 PM »

Gary----I'm not trying to be a dumb ass---one of the first radio messages stated "weather cloudy". And where did she pass over the Ontario for a fix? Did I miss that? Seems to me if she overflew the Ontario, she would have had some communication about that, at least to let someone know that she was on course. I understand DR, and you adjust your course by taking a fix on a landmark and compare it to your heading. BUT---what landmarks are there in the middle of the pacific? And---if it was cloudy, how was Noonan going to shoot a star sight? Last I saw, flying over the ocean at nite was pretty dark.
Yes, you did miss it.
At about 1030 Z it was reported that Earhart was heard on the radio saying "ship is sight." Some believe it was the Ontario and some believe it was the Myrtlebank. It is 1100 NM from the reported position of Ontario to Howland so the DR uncertainty is 10% of the distance traveled, 110 NM. There is also a disputed report that she reported seeing the lights of Nauru at about the same time. It is only 990 NM from Nauru to Howland which would reduce the DR uncertainty to 99 NM.

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“A Ship in Sight Ahead”
AE reported seeing “…a ship in sight ahead…” at about 1030 GMT, according to Harold J. Barnes, officer in charge of the radio station at Nauru Island who copied Earhart’s message.(70)

In a letter from Mr. T. H. Cude, Director of Police, Nauru Island, to Dr. Francis Holbrook of Fordham University, he stated he heard AE broadcasting to Harold Barnes, Chief Wireless Operator at Nauru Island, several times between 10-11 PM that she could see the lights on Nauru Island. The lights she referred to were the flood-lights strung out along the two 1,000-foot cableways situated on top of the island to permit mining at night. (71)

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,555.msg9489.html#msg9489

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
You apparently do not understand DR, since what you described is "pilotage" and there are no landmarks in the middle of the ocean so you cannot navigate by pilotage, you must DR between celestial fixes.

At 1623 Z Earhart reported "partly cloudy" which is good enough for celestial observations. Also, just because she reported overcast at one point, that report does not prove that it was continuously overcast, especially since the weather forecast did not forecast any storms on that part of the leg to Howland.

From 1623 Z to 1912 Z the plane traveled only about 360 NM, 10% of which is 36 NM plus the uncertainty of the celestial fix of 10 NM makes the total DR uncertainty at 1912 Z only 46 NM if a fix was obtained about 1623 Z. See my more complete explanation here.

Yes, it is pretty dark over the ocean at night, give it a try sometime.
gl

« Last Edit: February 09, 2012, 09:45:20 PM by Gary LaPook »
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Did Earhart carry parachutes on the flight to Howland
« Reply #114 on: February 09, 2012, 09:50:03 PM »


Gary
Am I to believe that they landed and immediately kicked into "survival" on  a deserted island mode?
Yes, that's what everybody else would do in that situation. The plane is knee deep in the Pacific, there is some wave action, Noonan has heard of "tides" Get everything off the plane and safely ashore because you can't be sure it won't be washed away or the stuff damaged if you put off carrying everything ashore.

gl
« Last Edit: February 09, 2012, 11:46:15 PM by Gary LaPook »
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: Did Earhart carry parachutes on the flight to Howland
« Reply #115 on: February 09, 2012, 10:25:42 PM »


Gary
Sorry, but I don't buy it. 
They thought that they would  see the Itasca  arrive within about 20 hours, at or soon after daybreak.   Of course, we know that didn't happen.

At what point in their efforts to unload the plane do you think they would have soughht out the problem with the radio?  Sought out a fix?  Began radio distress calls?  Tied off tghe Plane to prevent it from sliding off the reef?

I think that these actions would carry higher priority than kicking into "survival" mode.
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Did Earhart carry parachutes on the flight to Howland
« Reply #116 on: February 09, 2012, 11:03:49 PM »

I've explained this navigation before, they would know how far south of Howland they were, see prior post here.

Quoting from your previous post:

"...they would not have proceeded more than 110 NM south from the D.R. position  ..."
"Noonan knew how far they had flown since the last fix and would have allowed the appropriate offset for the intercept point on the sunline LOP."
"...then Noonan would have aimed 110 NM,...."
"They would then fly 220 NM south-southeast ..."
"...they would still not proceed more than 110 NM further to the south-southeast ..."
"...they would have had to have been an additional 58 NM off to the right of the DR ..."
"Using this LOP, Noonan would have known how far he was north or south ..."
" ... Noonan could have determined how far they were south of Howland and so would have let them know that they had to turn around ..."

Replace all those "woulds" and would haves" with "could" or "could have" or "might" or "might have" and it becomes clear that your post is pure speculation.  Based on your own considerable knowledge and experience, the actions you describe are what you believe Noonan could have or perhaps even should have done- and I'm not saying he didn't do them - but to then say with certainty that they would know how far south of Howland they were is patently false.
Ric, this issue has come up innumerable times in our correspondence over the years.

I'm a lawyer (I'll pause here for a moment to allow the hissing and booing to die down.................still need a few more seconds?.........) so I approach these questions as a lawyer. "What facts do I have to prove at trial and what admissible evidence do I have to prove them with." The courts and the various legislatures have developed rules of evidence and standard jury instructions that spell out what kinds of evidence you can use to prove different kinds of facts. Since these regulate the serious business of court trials, with possibly millions of dollars or even lives at stake, they are conservative and if you can meet the standard of proof at trial by following these rules then you can certainly prove something good enough for something less serious, such as the disappearance of a flyer in 1937.

I have written what Noonan did while approaching Howland (including using the "Landfall procedure" of offsetting to the north-northwest) and you always complain that this is just speculation. You complain that I have no evidence of what Noonan did but you are wrong, I have admissible evidence that would stand up in a court of law. To prove what a person did on a particular occasion, that he was acting in conformity with his training and with the normal practices in his field or industry, you can admit evidence relating to his training and also to the customary practices in his industry. One such form of this evidence is "learned treatises" and I have made available many such treatises on my website showing the normal practice of flight navigators for finding islands during the era we are discussing. This evidence is sufficient, all by itself, to prove in a court of law, Noonan's actions on July 2, 1937. So I have proved what Noonan did on that occasion.

But, of course, this could be overcome by direct evidence that he was not acting in conformity with his training or with the customary practices in his field so this puts the burden on you, Ric, to come up with admissible evidence that Noonan was NOT doing that. If you have a logged radio transmission in which Earhart said "Noonan told me to pass on that he will not use the normal procedures for finding an island but will do something different this time" then you win but without that logged message, I win.

gl
« Last Edit: August 08, 2012, 10:11:17 AM by Gary LaPook »
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Did Earhart carry parachutes on the flight to Howland
« Reply #117 on: February 09, 2012, 11:07:40 PM »


Gary
Sorry, but I don't buy it. 
They thought that they would  see the Itasca  arrive within about 20 hours, at or soon after daybreak.   Of course, we know that didn't happen.

At what point in their efforts to unload the plane do you think they would have soughht out the problem with the radio?  Sought out a fix?  Began radio distress calls?  Tied off tghe Plane to prevent it from sliding off the reef?

I think that these actions would carry higher priority than kicking into "survival" mode.
They had all day do these actions, they are not mutually exclusive. Even with your scenario, they still had to spend at least one night ashore and a parachute provides shelter and they were used that way many times by other crashed aircrews. First they get everything ashore, can't take more than an hour to unload the plane (probably only 15 minutes) leaving six hours before sunset to do what you would have done. As for troubleshooting the radio, based on their level of knowledge all they could do is check the fuse, one minute, see that wire to antenna is connected, 5 minutes, finished trouble shooting, total 6 minutes. They didn't have a tube tester machine with them and, according to the Luke inventory, they didn't carry spare tubes anyway so the troubleshooting of the radios was very limited.

O.K. so let me agree with you, prior to unloading they spent 6 minutes troubleshooting the radio and then they carried everything ashore.

Oh, and what would they use to tie "off the plane to prevent it from sliding off the reef" oh, ya, they could use the parachute lines.

gl
« Last Edit: February 10, 2012, 12:18:16 AM by Gary LaPook »
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Did Earhart carry parachutes on the flight to Howland
« Reply #118 on: February 09, 2012, 11:20:43 PM »

I've explained this navigation before, they would know how far south of Howland they were, see prior post here.

Quoting from your previous post:

"...they would not have proceeded more than 110 NM south from the D.R. position  ..."
"Noonan knew how far they had flown since the last fix and would have allowed the appropriate offset for the intercept point on the sunline LOP."
"...then Noonan would have aimed 110 NM,...."
"They would then fly 220 NM south-southeast ..."
"...they would still not proceed more than 110 NM further to the south-southeast ..."
"...they would have had to have been an additional 58 NM off to the right of the DR ..."
"Using this LOP, Noonan would have known how far he was north or south ..."
" ... Noonan could have determined how far they were south of Howland and so would have let them know that they had to turn around ..."

Replace all those "woulds" and would haves" with "could" or "could have" or "might" or "might have" and it becomes clear that your post is pure speculation.  Based on your own considerable knowledge and experience, the actions you describe are what you believe Noonan could have or perhaps even should have done- and I'm not saying he didn't do them - but to then say with certainty that they would know how far south of Howland they were is patently false.
We can argue around the edges about the level of DR uncertainty but one moon observation line and they did know how far north or south of Howland they were and the weather, as reported by Itasca, allowed moon shots south of Howland.

gl
« Last Edit: February 10, 2012, 12:21:08 AM by Gary LaPook »
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Did Earhart carry parachutes on the flight to Howland
« Reply #119 on: February 09, 2012, 11:23:09 PM »


Gary
I value your opinions greatly and you always express them eloquently (now comes the "however")  however, even though at a younger age (much younger, hehe) I wanted to learn how to jump out of a moving airplane, I got over it!

Like pilot Sullenberg (Sully) said to the NYC Controller, "We'll be in the Hudson", my communication would sound like this   "New York Control, 704 Mike Victor, I'll be in the drink." LOL
There is a big difference between ditching in the flat water of a river and ditching into the waves in the open ocean.

gl
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