Accepting all evidence presented:
1. The engine did not end up in the same location as other wreckage (the island) or we would have found the engine.
2. The plane very likely did not come apart in the air and, if it did, the engine could be located a very great distance from the island or even from the pond. We should discount this unlikely scenario for the current search.
3. Given that aircraft wreckage (not including the engine) was found at or near the island and the engine was not, it is thus very likely that the airplane came apart during the landing at some distance from the island. The engine will likely be found near there. This scenario is supported by the removal of the wingtip floats and the very high likelihood of a failed landing due to catching a wingtip.
4. Given the absence of an electrical system, the three explosions (if the explosions were the fuel tanks) would likely have been the result of a spark caused by a metal part of the aircraft penetrating one tank during the crash. The other tanks would likely have exploded in quick succession due to metal parts of the first tank penetrating the second, etc.
5. How buoyant would the wreckage have been with the engine and fuel tanks removed? Much of the remainder of the plane was wood. Could it have “flown,” coasted, drifted or been blown (or carried by ice) to or onto the island? If it did, the location of the wreck (and the engine) could easily be some distance from the island. I suggest some attention be paid to the magnetic anomalies in the pond that are located some distance to the the south of the island.
6. The scenario of the engine becoming a projectile, especially given the likely crash scenario of the aircraft catching a wingtip and suddenly rotating nose-in, seems improbable. It is only possible if the plane landed VERY long and almost immediately hit the island dead-on. That seems much less likely than the above scenario, which would have almost certainly have occurred UNLESS they hit the island immediately. The scenario I describe above would have occurred over a massively much broader range of touchdown points.
7. Is it possible that the pilot was aiming for or near the island and the deeper water around it, confidently expecting to land safely, but with a failing engine that would prohibit taxiing later to shore? Did the White Bird carry a dingy?
Thanks,
Jon