have we determined which side of the island was the impact side?
To be fair, we haven't determined anything. All we can do is look at the available clues - which may or may not have anything to do with the plane in the pond - and make guesses. With respect to which side of the island was the impact side, we have four types of clues:
• The location of possible evidence of impact with the island.
• The location of artifacts found.
• The location of artifacts seen but not recovered.
• The location of magnetic anomalies detected in the September 2021 drone magnetometry survey.
Let's take them one at a time.
• The location of possible evidence of impact with the island.
When Mark Smith and I were at the pond last November, Mark got excellent low-altitude aerial photos of the island with his drone. There's no discernible disturbance to the rocks on the island itself except for the construction of a cairn (stack of rocks), hard to see in this overhead shot, someone built at some time after 1970. The rocks in the shallow water surrounding the island seem to be fairly uniform in distribution except for one small area at the southeast edge where there appears to be a hole maybe 2 meters in diameter. It's entirely possible the hole is natural, but rocks don't heal. If an impact created a hole 95 years ago it would still be there.
• The location of artifacts found.
Most of the early witnesses say only that the pieces they saw were on or near the island but Anthony McGrath told me the three-foot long piece he recovered was on the “NW center of the island. The artifact I recovered in 1992 was just off the southern tip of the island. The two artifacts I found in September 2021 were under the edge of the big rock at the SE edge of the island.
• The location of artifacts seen but not recovered.
In May 1994, two TIGHAR divers saw objects on the bottom from the surface they felt sure were not rocks and might be aircraft debris, but they were unable to re-locate them for further investigation so we have only a general idea of where they were.
• The location of magnetic anomalies detected in the September 2021 drone magnetometry survey.
The contractor identified four spots where high magnetic return is outside areas of intense geologic magnetic activity. They may or may not be manmade ferrous objects. (Target #4 was only of medium intensity and was well north of Target #1.)