An important question in deciding whether the wreckage found by “Mr Fisher” is worth further investigation is that of the routing taken across the English Channel by the Norseman that day. One hypothesis is that Morgan chose to route via Portland Bill and then Cherbourg. As someone who has flown across the channel in light aircraft many times, I have to say I think that is very, very unlikely, because of the poor visibility. It might well be “an easily identifiable landmark in low visibility”, but it would be all too easy to miss.
The best weather report we have for Twinwood that day is a visibility of only one and a half miles, which is still rubbish. If that persisted all the way to the coast there is a good chance that Morgan would miss Portland Bill completely. OK, he would see the coast, but then he would have to fly along it east or west to find his chosen landmark, and it would be hard to know which way to go [similar to Earhart’s problem in the Pacific].
A better bet would be to head south for the Isle of Wight. That is wide enough to make it unlikely to miss, and it would then give a good fix for the leg to Cherbourg. Furthermore the total distance to Villacoublay is less, and crucially the overwater distance is also less. Was there any reason NOT to route via the Isle of Wight? Anti-aircraft defences around Southampton perhaps?
Cheers
Sean