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Author Topic: Malaysian Flight 370  (Read 238085 times)

manjeet aujla

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #30 on: March 17, 2014, 04:45:06 PM »

One of the earlier accounts had it that we were searching the Malacca Straits before anybody else, and that the USA prolly had the best idea of where this plane went, and so everybody else oughta just follow where the Americans were looking. With us involved at least there is a chance this plane will eventually be found.  Just today one of the guys (Rep King?) on a House Intelligence Subcommittee commented that it was looking more and more like a suicide crash into the southern Indian Ocean.

 
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Monty Fowler

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #31 on: March 17, 2014, 04:53:52 PM »

[ ... Or this could be Grand Theft Airplane for the purpose of obtaining something aboard the plane.  The passengers could be simply collateral damage. 

Hmmm ... possible video game licensing opportunities?

Kidding! But I have to admit, stealing an entire airliner would probably rank right up there with the greatest thefts in recorded history. My money is still on the pilot or co-pilot turning it into a one-way flight.

LTM,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 CER
Ex-TIGHAR member No. 2189 E C R SP, 1998-2016
 
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Tim Mellon

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #32 on: March 17, 2014, 07:38:57 PM »

Purely in terms of 'where'd it go' -

I started this thread suspecting Iran.

Now the Isrealis also suspect Iran.

I think I will trust...the Israelis in this matter.
Tim
Chairman,  CEO
PanAm Systems

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Tim Mellon

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #33 on: March 17, 2014, 08:13:52 PM »

I wouldn't assume it crashed.  What if some rogue nation or a terrorist group has a nuclear or biological weapon that it wants to use on the U.S. (presumably, since every problem in the world is evidently our fault) but no delivery system.  A long range airliner might be quite usable as a delivery system.  I'd say we'd best be extremely vigilant.

You mean on a mission such as is depicted below, Dale? Once over Saudi Arabia, I would doubt very much sophisticated radar coverage in most of Northern Africa. Then, across the Atlantic, a free pass.
Tim
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PanAm Systems

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Dale O. Beethe

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #34 on: March 17, 2014, 08:17:48 PM »

Yes, Tim, something like that.  Scary stuff.  Hope we have people on that potentiality.
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Tim Mellon

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #35 on: March 17, 2014, 08:23:47 PM »

I worry as much about the Iranian ships 200 miles offshore, not to mention the containers shipped in by sea, the Airstream trailers from Canada, and the donkeys coming over our Southern boarder.
Tim
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George Lam

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #36 on: March 17, 2014, 08:28:10 PM »

Summarizing what I've gathered from numerous sources...The purpose of the hourly satellite-to-plane "handshakes" is to allow the satellite to know the approximate location of the aircraft so that it can transmit any messages. For this, the satellite needs to know the angle of the aircraft from the satellite.  The satellite is around 22,000 miles in orbit, west of center of the Indean Ocean at the final "ping" moment, 8:11am.

An aircraft directly under the satellite would be at a 90 degree angle to the satellite and an aircraft at the poles would be at 0 degrees.

In the case of Malaysia Airlines 370, authorities have said, the last message sent was at 40 degrees.  Satellite and accident investigation experts have used that information to determine the possible location of the plane, somewhere in the vicinity of those red lines spanning from Northern Thailand to Southern Kazakhastan, or southern Indonesia to southern Indean Ocean.

If this information is correct and the satellite ping indication of the plane being at 40 degrees from it is correct, how can the plane be anywhere near Iran or adjacent middle east countries?  Could it have landed somewhere, refueled, and flown to the area of one of the red lines within that time frame?  I'm focused more on the northern red line, as the southern red line may point more towards intentional ditching at sea or pilot suicide as others have mentioned.

I have my reservations until more concrete evidence is found, but this is what we have to work with at this point.
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Tim Mellon

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #37 on: March 17, 2014, 08:46:48 PM »


If this information is correct and the satellite ping indication of the plane being at 40 degrees from it is correct, how can the plane be anywhere near Iran or adjacent middle east countries?

The 40o red circle does pass through Northwestern Iran (see attachment). And what is the accuracy of this satellite triangulation anyway, +/- 5o?
Tim
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PanAm Systems

TIGHAR #3372R
 
« Last Edit: March 17, 2014, 08:53:19 PM by Tim Mellon »
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George Lam

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #38 on: March 17, 2014, 09:56:32 PM »

All the news sources citing expert and professional analysis I've read through say the return signal from the plane only lies somewhere on those red lines, not the entire circle representing the 40 degree inclination from the satellite.  I'm sure there is an uncertainty factor, maybe 5 degrees, maybe less, but there is no mention of this tolerance.

I'm curious how they narrowed down the signal to only those two red segments of the circle.
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John Ousterhout

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #39 on: March 17, 2014, 11:34:14 PM »

Don't confuse geosync satellite orbits (22,000 miles up) with Low Earth Orbits (200-600 miles up "spy" satellites).  Geo-sync are great for communications (your TV satellite antenna points at one), but poor for finding earth locations.  On the other hand, LEO orbits are great for getting earthly data, such as GPS signals and fuzzy camera pictures, but those satellites are only "overhead" for relatively short periods, and seemingly never in good camera range (for those few that actually carry cameras).  Despite what you see in movies, spy satellites don't get to see much as they zip overhead, and what they do get to look at is planned well in advance.  I'm sure that someone has checked to see if by chance any LEO satellite camera systems just happened to catch photos of flight 370, but it would be difficult to verify that was the aircraft they were actually seeing from as much as a few thousand miles away.
The saying I liked was "what you want is knowledge, but what you get is information."
Cheers,
JohnO
 
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Timothy Takemoto

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Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 on Nikumaroro?
« Reply #40 on: March 18, 2014, 12:17:51 AM »

With the tragic disappearance of Malaysian Airways Flight 370 in mind, like other's here, I could not help wondering where the aircraft could have disappeared to.

There has been some comment on the fact that the pilot (and another cabin crew member) both had home flight simulators. The police are analysing virtual flight path's for details.

(As anyone who is unlikely to have read my other two lame suggestions would know) I am interested in analysing images, and the obvious one to analyse now is the image shown behind the captain on his flight simulator, originally from a video posted by the pilot about how to repair an air conditioner

It seems that behind him he has landed his virtual plane on a V-shaped strip of white land, which is at sea level and surrounded by ocean. My first thoughts were of beaches, sand banks and particularly isolated atolls such as Nikumaroro the rare angular atoll where Tighar hypothesises that Amelia Earhart landed her plane, and went unnoticed.

Isolated V-shaped atolls include Moruroa and Caroline island, both of which are even further away. Even to get to Nikumaroro whoever flew the plane would have needed to use ground effect.

Someone has already used the same software to simulate the landing on Nikumaroro and published a video of the simulation of the landing on Nikumaroro here. I admit it looks very different. Good though.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2014, 01:02:32 AM by Timothy Takemoto »
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Bruce Thomas

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Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 on Nikumaroro?
« Reply #41 on: March 18, 2014, 06:21:32 AM »

Someone has already used the same software to simulate the landing on Nikumaroro and published a video of the simulation of the landing on Nikumaroro here. I admit it looks very different. Good though.

No, that video does not simulate a landing on Nikumaroro. Looking at the final scene, one can discern the Coast Guard cutter sitting off-shore, and some imagined buildings and men waiting for AE to alight from her aircraft. These words, in German, appear on the screen, "Amelia Earhart hat dieses Eiland nie erreicht." Translation: "Amelia Earhart never reached this island." The simulated landing is NR16020 coming in to land on Howland Island.

LTM,

Bruce
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JNev

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #42 on: March 18, 2014, 06:40:14 AM »

Purely in terms of 'where'd it go' -

I started this thread suspecting Iran.

Now the Isrealis also suspect Iran.

I think I will trust...the Israelis in this matter.

Good judgment, Tim - in fact, almost eery that you had that thought so early.  This thing does not seem to be over at all.
- Jeff Neville

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JNev

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #43 on: March 18, 2014, 06:43:35 AM »

But this is terrorism any way you put it, and these people do not show any considerations for innocents they may harm.

The purpose of terrorism is to terrorize to some political end.  This doesn't fit that definition - not yet anyway.  Mentally ill mass murders are not terrorists.  Or this could be Grand Theft Airplane for the purpose of obtaining something aboard the plane.  The passengers could be simply collateral damage.  No less despicable, but not "terrorism" per se.

It is looking more and more like your "not yet" statement has considerable weight; we appear to have grand larceny so far - probably throw in mass murder (assuming the thieves had no plans to feed all those passengers...), and of a 'deadly weapon' at that - with assault likely to follow.  IF they can get past now-highly alerted air defenses (not too likely).
- Jeff Neville

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JNev

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #44 on: March 18, 2014, 06:48:51 AM »

I wouldn't assume it crashed.  What if some rogue nation or a terrorist group has a nuclear or biological weapon that it wants to use on the U.S. (presumably, since every problem in the world is evidently our fault) but no delivery system.  A long range airliner might be quite usable as a delivery system.  I'd say we'd best be extremely vigilant.

You mean on a mission such as is depicted below, Dale? Once over Saudi Arabia, I would doubt very much sophisticated radar coverage in most of Northern Africa. Then, across the Atlantic, a free pass.

The Saudi's have AWACS and no love of Tehran, and while north Africa and an Atlantic dash could be it, the low altitude needed for much of that is mileage-killing for any jet.

I suspect we should look to the east for this threat - may not be aimed at us here at all.  If Iran is involved, there are other shadowy routes to Tel Aviv.  I don't think the bird would ever make it across their border though - they could shade Doc Holliday in a bar fight.
- Jeff Neville

Former Member 3074R
 
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