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Tim Mellon

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Malaysian Flight 370
« on: March 15, 2014, 08:50:49 PM »

Sorry, Ric, for posting this in the wrong thread. I was responding to Richie's query about the flight path of the Malaysian B777.

My best guess so far:

Route WMKK (Kuala Lumpur) to IGARI at FIR boundary with Vietnam, sharp left turn, over Malaya, up the channel and then direct SABDI, followed by a right turn direct to Chah Bahar airbase in Southeastern Iran (Google view attached). After overflying Malaya, minimum radar coverage for the entire balance of the route. Less than 3500 NM, well within the fuel load that was required for an IFR flight to Beijing. Length of Rwy 9L/27R at OIZC is 13,595 feet, way sufficient for a light B777. There is no hangar large enough at OIZC to contain a B777, but it is certainly possible that the aircraft could have been unloaded, refueled and re-dispatched elsewhere in no more than two hours if this scenario had been well planned. 7.5 hours of flight from KL, it would still have been night time when the aircraft departed OIZC for elsewhere.
Tim
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« Last Edit: March 15, 2014, 09:43:41 PM by Tim Mellon »
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Jeff Victor Hayden

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2014, 11:45:51 PM »

A comprehensive guide to the missing flight from the BBC news...

Malaysia Airlines: What we know about flight MH370

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26503141
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #2 on: March 16, 2014, 09:10:04 AM »

Assuming for the moment that current speculation that the flight was diverted by either the crew or others is correct, what was the motivation?  What was the purpose?
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Jeff Victor Hayden

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #3 on: March 16, 2014, 10:53:19 AM »

Someone aboard was very proficient in switching off the various tracking and identification systems, the only one left functioning 'They report that a satellite system operated by London-based telecommunications company Inmarsat received an automated signal from flight MH370 at least five hours after the plane was reported lost.' required a more technical means of deactivation. Would hijackers have been aware of all of these systems? would that leave the crew as the most knowledgeable and likeliest?
A real mystery.




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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2014, 10:55:39 AM »

In either case, this appears to have been a well-planned sophisticated operation.  Why?  What was the purpose?
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Jeff Victor Hayden

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2014, 11:15:37 AM »

CNN have a page on the missing plane and the search area, huge now, plus the range with the available fuel on board and the satellite tracking data...

http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2014/03/world/malaysia-flight-map/index.html?iid=article_sidebar
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Monty Fowler

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2014, 12:32:31 PM »

Here's my take on it:

This was a human-caused event, most likely by either the pilot or co-pilot. Not all that hard to do with the highly-automated airliners of today. Either the pilot or co-pilot disables/kills the other in the cockpit. They are behind a locked door, so no one else can see what's going on. The passengers and flight attendants are handled by depressurizing the aircraft. The emergency oxygen systems back there are only good for about 10-15 minutes. All the pilot or co-pilot has to do is keep the plane above 10,000-12,000 feet for an hour or so and everyone in the back of the aircraft is either dead or beyond help. Then it's just a matter of setting the course to terminate in an empty area of ocean while methodically switching off all of the electronic locating systems. Remember, it was night when all this was going on, so there was little if any chance for anyone to actually see anything.

As to motivation, well ... the human mind is capable of unthinkable depravities towards other human beings. There is precedent for the pilot or co-pilot taking the aircraft and all aboard with them in a final suicidal plunge. There is also precedent for airliners flying for some time with everyone disabled from lack of oxygen.

Answers will only come when, and if, some floating wreckage can be found that will give a clue as to the terminal point of this flight.

LTM, who doesn't like to think the unthinkable,
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« Last Edit: March 16, 2014, 12:49:21 PM by Monty Fowler »
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Dale O. Beethe

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2014, 01:28:03 PM »

I wouldn't assume it crashed.  What if some rogue nation or a terrorist group has a nuclear or biological weapon that it wants to use on the U.S. (presumably, since every problem in the world is evidently our fault) but no delivery system.  A long range airliner might be quite usable as a delivery system.  I'd say we'd best be extremely vigilant.
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #8 on: March 16, 2014, 01:29:29 PM »

I agree that at least of the pilots was complicit but if your only objective is to kill the passengers why not just dive it into the ocean? 
There's much more going on here than a simple suicide mission.  Somebody took great pains took make the airplane disappear and then flew for several hours.  Unless we're looking at rank insanity (which is a possibility) the perpetrator(s) were on their way somewhere.  Someone was waiting for them to arrive.  Whether they arrived or not is presently unknown. 

This was a sophisticated operation sponsored by somebody who has significant assets.
•  That airplane was on it's way somewhere and somebody was waiting for it to arrive, land, taxi into a big hanger, close the doors, and the airplane is gone.
•  If the plane is going to remain hidden you have to control the local environment.  That is best accomplished if it's on a military airfield.  That means the operation is probably state-sponsored.
•  It's not about hostages.  Hostages are no good to you if nobody knows you have them and hostages are not worth this much effort. Killing the passengers was probably the first thing they did.  Put on your mask and de-pressurize the cabin.
•  The airplane is probably not what they're after.  It's not new technology and if you just want to make a flying bomb it's a lot easier to steal an old 727.
•  Seems to me there must have been something aboard that airplane that was worth stealing.  Somebody knew it would be aboard that flight long in advance.  The Malaysians have not been forthcoming about what was in the cargo hold.  Or it could be as simple as a diplomat's laptop, although there are easier ways to do that.

The template for something like this has been around since 1965. It was called Thunderball.

BTW, I see no reason to see Iran as the culprit.  Most of the passengers were Chinese.  Why would Iran want to piss off China?
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Dale O. Beethe

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #9 on: March 16, 2014, 01:34:27 PM »

I'd agree it would probably be easier to steal an old 727, but it looks as if someone has stolen this one, so it was obviously possible.  I hadn't considered stealing it for what's on it.  It would be interesting to know exactly what was aboard.
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Jeff Victor Hayden

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #10 on: March 16, 2014, 01:40:07 PM »

According to the fuel load figures the plane had enough fuel for a further 2,500 miles from it's last point of contact. From that information certain destinations can be ruled out. Malaysian military radar tracked the plane so it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that other countries had the ability to do so as well, but nothing, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, India, Sri Lanka, nothing.



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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #11 on: March 16, 2014, 06:33:22 PM »

Malaysian military radar tracked the plane so it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that other countries had the ability to do so as well, but nothing, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, India, Sri Lanka, nothing.

Fly low enough and you're invisible to all radar (done that) but at those altitudes the 777 has nothing like 2,500 miles ( 6 hours) of range.  But the pings from the engines suggest that the engines continued to run for 6 hours which would suggest that the plane was flying at an efficient altitude in an area where there was no radar coverage (open ocean). If I'm the thief, that's exactly what I want you to think.

We already know that whoever did this is intimately familiar with the airplane.  If they have the expertise to disable the automated reporting systems that can be accessed in flight they certainly know about the engine system they can't do anything about.  Land the airplane somewhere within the low level range but leave the engines running at reduced power creating the illusion that the plane is still in flight and diverting searches to areas far from where you really are.

If I was running the search I'd be looking at military airfields with at least 4,000 feet of runway and a big hangar within maybe a thousand miles of the last known point.  It would be interesting to know whether the USS Kidd now in the Straight of Malacca has SEALs aboard.
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Dale O. Beethe

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #12 on: March 16, 2014, 07:37:16 PM »

I would guess there's all sorts of preparations being made to deal with whatever the situation turns out to be, most of them being fairly violent.  Not to rattle sabers, but some things need to be resolved with extreme prejudice.  Thank God we still have some young lions willing to go in harm's way.
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Mark Appel

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #13 on: March 16, 2014, 07:54:56 PM »

I note this evening of reports the pilot had obsessive national political views. He was (is) an allegedly ardent supporter of an opposition leader, convicted of sodomy no less, a mere 5 hours before 370 flight time. The expertise required for the maneuvers and calculated behaviors witnessed thus far may give the illusion of a well-thought out plan. On the other hand, it may actually be a pattern executed by an expert, but deranged intelligence...
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Tim Mellon

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #14 on: March 16, 2014, 08:56:55 PM »

According to the fuel load figures the plane had enough fuel for a further 2,500 miles from it's last point of contact.

Jeff, what was the takeoff fuel load? Where did this data come from?

Tim
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