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Author Topic: Japanese Rescue/Capture Theory v Nikumaroro Hypothesis  (Read 6875 times)

Paul Blackman

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Japanese Rescue/Capture Theory v Nikumaroro Hypothesis
« on: July 20, 2017, 07:01:22 AM »

Hi

Have been balancing the various theories on Amelia over the past few days and find there are certain elements of all that are quite compelling. If no one minds I have few questions to throw out there on two of them that might help in shifting the balance in my mind. Apologies if they have been asked before.

The “Captured by the Japanese” Theory & Recent Photo

Photo Date

Do we now have 100 % certainty on date ie. taken pre 1935 or that the dock wasn’t built until 1936?

If the latter then presumably the pair could be Amelia & Fred. I have to admit personally I find the resemblance to Amelia striking. More importantly if the date is 1935 and the pair are not Amelia and Fred, the obvious question is who are the Westerners, looking remarkably like them, in the Marshall Islands at that time? Anyone got any  ideas?

Apart from the date, other arguments I’ve seen against the photo are:

Different Clothing to Take Off

This was the last leg of their flight. Presumably they had a change of smart clothing available for the inevitable public appearances on reaching final destination?

Amelia’s Hair too Long?

Do we know how long it would have taken them to get from Milli Atoll to Jaluit or how long they might have been there when the photo was taken? I suspect from what little I know of Amelia’s character that she would be reluctant to have it cut locally. What do others think?

Not Enough Fuel to Get There

Is there a possibility that she didn’t use pure 100 Octane fuel for the Lae take off and topped that half empty tank off with regular 87 fuel giving a longer range than assumed? Is there any hard evidence on this or just an assumption that she didn't? It might explain the very sluggish take off seen on film if the engine was down on power but up on range ? I often mix 100 Octane with 95 or 98 in my Viper if it's a choice between that and running out of fuel.

Lack of Guards

Well as the Aeroflot steward said to me on a recent flight from Moscow when my dog ran up the aisle on take off – “Sir, we’re on a plane. Where is she going to go?” Why would they need to be guarded anyway? Would they be tempted to dive off the jetty and commandeer a fishing boat? Unlikely. It’s only hearsay they were considered prisoners and they’re pretty much stuck on the island one would imagine.

Photo Not Close Enough / Posed

Well, having crash landed on one Pacific Island, having bent your plane ( for the second time ) and now presumably being stuck on a second island, presumably they wouldn’t be in the mood for a photo opp. Personally I would be inclined to insert the camera somewhere unpleasant. An alternative, is that the photo itself was taken by a Japanese guard / minder which would be consistent with it turning up in a Japanese publication........

Questions on the Nikumaroro Hypothesis

The Plan

Apparently Amelia is on record as saying that if they couldn’t find Howland they would turn back to the Marshall Islands? Can anyone think why they would change that plan? Do we know for sure whether they had a map that showed Gardner Island? Wasn’t there a post loss transmission saying they were on a reef west of Howland or did I dream that?

The Search Party

Just a thought but if they are on Nikumaroro with a woman’s compact and presumably a sextant, why wouldn’t they signal the planes using the sun? Would imagine it would be readily available at most times of the day ?

The Radio Transmissions

Absolutely not an expert but presumably these could also have been made from Milli Atoll? Would there be any difference in tides? Maybe they stopped because either finally the plane ran out of fuel or because they were picked up by the Koshu rather than the plane washing over the reef?

Again, just random thoughts and still think the Nikumaroro Hypothesis has great merit. Would be great to hear what others think on the above.
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John Klier

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Re: Japanese Rescue/Capture Theory v Nikumaroro Hypothesis
« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2017, 07:53:29 AM »

Regarding the photograph. I'm not an expert in facial recognition but I do have significant experience with air photo interpretation and remote sensing.  In my opinion I don't see how there can possibly be enough detail in that photograph to say with any certainty that those individuals are Amelia and Fred. Since that is not my field, I could be wrong. I would like to see references to published articles that show facial recognition is possible with that level of detail rather than just some supposed expert saying - yep that's them, I'm sure.
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Bill Mangus

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Re: Japanese Rescue/Capture Theory v Nikumaroro Hypothesis
« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2017, 08:19:45 AM »

Hi Paul,

I'll take a stab at answering a few of your questions.

Photo Date:  Translations of the book in the Japanese National Archives show it was published in October 1935.  How could a picture supposedly taken in 1937 possiibly be in a book published two years earlier?  Of course I'm assuming the translation(s) were accurate.  As far as I've heard so far, there's no hard documentation on date of construction of any of the port facilities.  Pictures seen on forum so far aren't conclusive as they don't show enough detail. 

Different Clothing Than on Takeoff:  Undoubtly they had changes of clothes.  Remember, though, Howland Island was only intended as an overnight refueling stop.  Different clothes the next day probably.  In all the pictures of AE and FN seen at the various stops before Lae, I've never seen one with them in "whites".

Amelia's Hair Too Long:  Look at her hair in the film of them boarding in Lae.  Very short, up off the neck, shirt collar.  It couldn't have grown that much in a day or so.

Not Enough Fuel:  There are written records from the day of the flight detailing what was put in the tanks.

Lack of Guards:  If they had been 'captured' then any authorized pictures would also show them as under guard/surveillance.  If it was a rescue, same thing, to show what 'good guys' we are.  Unauthorized pictures might be another story but I'd think access to the dock would have been controlled from the time the authorities knew the ship was approaching the dock.  Even in 1935-7 the Japanese were fanatic about security.

Photo Not Close Enough/Posed:  Eye of the photographer and what he or she was trying to record.  Overall view of the port activities -- people not that important.  If the people were important enough to record their arrival the photographer would have tried for a shot which would prove identification.  The photo tells me the photographer wasn't that interested in the identification of the people.  Were there other shots?  Impossible to know.

The Plan:  Don't know if she said it or not.  Ric will have to address that.  Don't know exactly what maps Fred may have had on board.  The map used by the Colorado/Lexington search effort didn't extend far enough south to show Gardner.  Watch Ric's video from the New England Air Museum for details.

The Search Party:  I don't think the sextant would have been much good as a signaling device.  The compact might be better.  If they were awake when the Colorado's search plane flew over and they heard/saw it, maybe she did signal.  If so, it wasn't seen.

The Radio Transmissions:  Judging from the pictures shown in the HC program, I don't think the aircraft would not be able to make any kind of landing which would have left it capable of sending anything.  Tides would be different; many, many miles away from Gardner/Howland.  Koshu deck logs from time in question still exist.  Ric has commented on them earlier.  She was nowhere near where the picture was taken, when it was supposed to have been taken in 1937.

These are some random thoughts from me.
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Japanese Rescue/Capture Theory v Nikumaroro Hypothesis
« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2017, 08:50:34 AM »

Do we now have 100 % certainty on date ie. taken pre 1935 or that the dock wasn’t built until 1936?
Questions on the Nikumaroro Hypothesis

No evidence has been offered to support the allegation that the dock wasn't built until 1936 and datable photos clearly show that a dock was present well before 1935.  There is no reason to question the pre-1935 date.  The now-infamous photo was taken at least two years before Earhart and Noonan disappeared.  Back-and-forthing about hair, faces, lack of guards, and so on is pointless.

The Plan

Apparently Amelia is on record as saying that if they couldn’t find Howland they would turn back to the Marshall Islands?

Amelia is not "on record" as saying anything about what she would do if unable to find Howland.  Gene Vidal later claimed that AE had told him that she would turn back for the Gilberts, not the Marshals,  but such a plan (if there was such a plan) would be totally unworkable. You can't navigate to anywhere if you don't know where you are to begin with. 

Do we know for sure whether they had a map that showed Gardner Island?

No. How could we possibly know what map(s) they had?  However, IF they did not have a map that included Gardner it would explain why nobody heard her say the name of the island.

Wasn’t there a post loss transmission saying they were on a reef west of Howland or did I dream that?

All of the post-loss messages are at https://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Research/ResearchPapers/Brandenburg/signalcatalog.html

Dana Randolph heard her say, "Ship on reef southeast of Howland."

The Search Party

Just a thought but if they are on Nikumaroro with a woman’s compact and presumably a sextant, why wouldn’t they signal the planes using the sun? Would imagine it would be readily available at most times of the day ?

It's easy to imagine all kinds of "why wouldn’t they" questions, but such speculation is pointless. We have no information about where they were or what their circumstances were at the time the Navy planes flew over.

The Radio Transmissions

Absolutely not an expert but presumably these could also have been made from Milli Atoll? Would there be any difference in tides? Maybe they stopped because either finally the plane ran out of fuel or because they were picked up by the Koshu rather than the plane washing over the reef?

The tides at Mili are probably different but nobody has done the research because they couldn't get to Mili in the first place and there is nowhere at Mili where the aircraft could land and remain intact enough to send radio messages.
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Paul Blackman

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Re: Japanese Rescue/Capture Theory v Nikumaroro Hypothesis
« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2017, 09:30:31 AM »

John / Bill / Ric

Thank you for your indulgence in my "testing the Hypothesis" and the superfast responses, impressive indeed.

On balance I'm inclined to agree with all of you and thank you for pointing out where I was misinformed. For closure, I guess we just need to figure out:

- is there a second copy of the book anywhere and if loosebound does it include the same photo ? Or does it have a stamp ?
- is there any chance that librarians in Japan in the 1930's didn't get a new stamp every year or that someone used the wrong one for whatever reason ?
- who were the people looking remarkably like Amelia and Fred on a dock in Jaluit in 1935/1937/1940 and what were they doing there with "Amelia" staringly wistfully at what looks like a wrecked kite on the back of a barge.
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Japanese Rescue/Capture Theory v Nikumaroro Hypothesis
« Reply #5 on: July 20, 2017, 09:45:34 AM »

- is there a second copy of the book anywhere and if loosebound does it include the same photo ? Or does it have a stamp ?

Would you similarly question the validity of a book in the Library of Congress?

- is there any chance that librarians in Japan in the 1930's didn't get a new stamp every year or that someone used the wrong one for whatever reason ?

Is there any reason at all to think that the National Library of Japan would be that incompetent?

- who were the people looking remarkably like Amelia and Fred on a dock in Jaluit in 1935/1937/1940 and what were they doing there with "Amelia" staringly wistfully at what looks like a wrecked kite on the back of a barge.

There are no people looking remarkably like Amelia and Fred.  There is no barge. There is no airplane.  This is pure pareidolia
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Paul Blackman

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Re: Japanese Rescue/Capture Theory v Nikumaroro Hypothesis
« Reply #6 on: July 20, 2017, 09:55:06 AM »

To the first two questions, on balance probably not. However if the fundamental premise of the Japanese capture theory is a cover up then presumably all bets are off, right ?
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Japanese Rescue/Capture Theory v Nikumaroro Hypothesis
« Reply #7 on: July 20, 2017, 10:03:46 AM »

However if the fundamental premise of the Japanese capture theory is a cover up then presumably all bets are off, right ?

Right.  It's a basic tenet of conspiracy theories that absence of evidence is proof of a cover up. 
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