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Would Amelia Earhart have made an in air radio broadcast saying she was going to land on an island?

Very high probability
- 2 (66.7%)
High probability
- 1 (33.3%)
Possibly
- 0 (0%)
Probably not
- 0 (0%)
Absolutely not
- 0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 3

Voting closed: December 27, 2016, 06:40:48 PM


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Author Topic: The last hour+  (Read 3166 times)

Alfred Hendrickson

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #15 on: April 24, 2017, 01:56:57 PM »

Jeffrey, no disrespect intended.

Below, I have underlined where you are making guesses:

"I believe most would agree that Amelia Earhart would have made a radio broadcast from the Electra while the Electra was in the air announcing she was going to land on an island. TIGHAR suggests that island would be Gardner Island. Her life simply depended on getting this announcement out before a landing. I believe it is correct to say that an announcement of this kind was not heard by the Itasca off Howland Island. If a test was performed by the best people possible  to recreate the radio broadcasts made by Amelia Earhart during at least the last hour or so of her flight I believe the results of the test could determine whether or not Amelia Earhart actually landed on an island, i.e. Gardner Island according to TIGHAR. If the test results show that an in air announcement by Amelia Earhart would have been heard at Howland Island this would indicate that Amelia Earhart did not make the in air announcement because it would have been received if she had and therefore in all probability would mean Amelia Earhart did not land on an island, i.e. Gardner Island."

As others have pointed out, the test you suggest is not even possible.

Alfred
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Jeffrey Pearce

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #16 on: April 27, 2017, 06:03:33 AM »

Alfred,

I shall try one more time to address your remarks. If I fail to satisfy you, Alfred, I want you and others to understand that I will not try again. Perhaps someone else would be able to communicate with you better than I can.

Have you seen the poll in this thread? The results of the poll indicate people believe Amelia Earhart would have made an in air broadcast to announce she was going to land on an island. Furthermore, TIGHAR support staff have informed me they believe Amelia Earhart would have made an in air broadcast announcing she was going to land on an island, i.e. Gardner Island.

Alfred, for the moment, put yourself in Amelia Earhart's position. You have seen an island in the distance. You have decided to try to land on the island. You have some time at your disposal before you arrive at the island. Before you attempt a landing on the island you think to yourself do you want mankind to know that you are going to land on an island or do you not want mankind to know that you are going to land on an island? You decide that you want mankind to know that you are going to land on an island. You want mankind to know as much as possible what has happened to you and where you are. You want someone to come and get you. You want to live, Alfred!

The fourth sentence in my April 23 post begins a description of one process of discovery, and right now the only process of discovery that comes to my mind, that simply and briefly outlines the steps that could be taken in order to reveal whether or not Amelia Earhart's in air radio broadcast would have been heard by the Itasca just off Howland Island or heard by someone else. Alfred, there is absolutely no guesswork involved or required concerning sentence #4 and the process of discovery I briefly outline after sentence #4.

Thank you, Alfred. I hope you have a good day!

« Last Edit: April 27, 2017, 06:06:23 AM by Jeffrey Pearce »
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Ted G Campbell

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #17 on: April 27, 2017, 10:01:11 PM »

Jeffrey and Alfred,

If I had to guess – and that’s all it is, a guess – AE/FN saw Gardner and each were trying to find some chart to get the name of the island.

Not knowing if they found a chart that had a name associated with what they were seeing the internal cockpit discussion would normally change:
   - “we are running low on gas and we need to land”
   - AE/FN “do you see any place to land?”
   - “is the reef flat smooth enough to land on?  Let’s fly down the reef flat so we              can survey the surface”
   -  “hang on we are going in”

Bottom line, once they saw Gardner no further external broadcast was made until they were on the ground and they were able to calm down.

Ted Campbell
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Jeffrey Pearce

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #18 on: April 28, 2017, 03:21:25 PM »

Ted,

If there was no in air broadcast announcing an intention to land on an island, this could possibly indicate a landing on an island, i.e. Gardner Island, did not occur. To say that "no further external broadcast was made" can signify that an island landing may not have happened.
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #19 on: April 28, 2017, 04:22:36 PM »

If there was no in air broadcast announcing an intention to land on an island, this could possibly indicate a landing on an island, i.e. Gardner Island, did not occur. To say that "no further external broadcast was made" can signify that an island landing may not have happened.

The unstated structure of your argument is:

If a broadcast is made, it is always heard.

No broadcast was heard.

Therefore, no broadcast was made.

Therefore, they did not land at Gardner.


The problem is in the very first assumption you are making--that all broadcasts are heard.

We have evidence that AE's broadcasts on her "daytime frequency" were not heard for four hours after takeoff.

From that page:

"I will foolishly tread forward here. Perhaps the phenomenon of 'skip zone' was responsible [for no further transmissions being heard after 8:43 AM, when Earhart switched to her daytime frequency of 6210 kHz]: too far for good reception of ground wave, or direct wave, and not far enough away to receive her signal via skip propagation (sky wave.) I think i have seen old propagation charts which actually give distances for the skip zone, a dead zone of no reception, around the transmitting station."

Hue Miller, 23 February 2009 Forum



LTM,

           Marty
           TIGHAR #2359A
 
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Jeffrey Pearce

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #20 on: April 30, 2017, 10:30:38 AM »

Marty,

Thank you for your information. I must, however, tell you that, and using your words, "If a broadcast is made, it is always heard." I believe you are stating that I believe this is true. Marty, I have never said this.

Then, you go on to say "The problem is in the very first assumption you are making--that all broadcasts are heard." Again, Marty, I have never said that. That is just too simplistic a statement and thought. I do hope that others understand this.

I will not waiver from the thoughts I have expressed in this thread. These thoughts, I believe, speak for themselves.

I know I am a person who believes that facts are what is important. The facts are what I am seeking.

Thank you once again, Marty. It is my pleasure to have this dialogue with you.

Jeff


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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #21 on: April 30, 2017, 11:14:57 AM »

http://tighar.org/wiki/Frequency,_wavelength,_and_antenna_tuning#Daytime.2Fnighttime_frequencies
Thank you for your information. I must, however, tell you that, and using your words, "If a broadcast is made, it is always heard." I believe you are stating that I believe this is true. Marty, I have never said this.

I didn't say that you SAID it.

I said that this premise is essential for the argument you are making.

- No broadcast was received.
- Therefore, no broadcast was made.
- Therefore, the plane went down in the ocean.

It is a fact that no broadcast was logged in any logs to which we have access.

Reasoning from this fact depends on understanding the nature of radio transmissions.

Wrong assumptions (premises) about radio transmissions will lead to wrong conclusions about the meaning of the fact on which we agree.

That people often make broadcasts that are not heard is a matter of fact.

"Radio propagation is the behavior of radio waves as they travel, or are propagated, from one point to another, or into various parts of the atmosphere. As a form of electromagnetic radiation, like light waves, radio waves are affected by the phenomena of reflection, refraction, diffraction, absorption, polarization, and scattering. Understanding the effects of varying conditions on radio propagation has many practical applications, from choosing frequencies for international shortwave broadcasters, to designing reliable mobile telephone systems, to radio navigation, to operation of radar systems."

The reflective qualities of the ionosphere change as the sun rises.  This affects propagation.  Amelia was heard loud and clear on her "nighttime frequency" (3105 kHz).  In her last intelligible message, she indicated that she was changing to her "daytime frequency" (6210 kHz).  The Coast Guard never heard anything on that frequency at all.  Some people think that means that the ship went down after that last transmission.  TIGHAR believes that she did what she said she would and that the transmissions on her daytime frequency were not heard--just as they had not been heard the day before for the first four hours of her flight away from Lae.

That no intelligible transmissions were heard after Earhart announced she was changing frequencies could mean that they crashed in the ocean; it could also mean that the atmospheric conditions were not conducive to reception at Howland Island on that day at that time.

It is meaningless to try to perform an experiment by broadcasting from a replica of the Electra using replica transmitters to try to reach a replica of the Itasca and of the station on Howland Island.  Experimental method requires "controlling the variables."  It is impossible to know exactly what equipment was on board the aircraft; it is impossible to know exactly what equipment was on the Itasca; it is impossible to duplicate the antennas on the aircraft and on the two receiving stations at Howland; it is impossible to know the atmospheric conditions on 2 July 1937; it is impossible to arrange to duplicate those conditions today; it is impossible to know where the Electra was when AE's transmissions were received; it is impossible to fly a replica aircraft on the course that she took on 1-2 July 1937.

These, too, are matters of fact.
LTM,

           Marty
           TIGHAR #2359A
 
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Greg Daspit

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #22 on: April 30, 2017, 11:35:44 AM »

If the test results show that an in air announcement by Amelia Earhart would have been heard at Howland Island this would indicate that Amelia Earhart did not make the in air announcement because it would have been received if she had and therefore in all probability would mean Amelia Earhart did not land on an island, i.e. Gardner Island.

Jeffrey, this is just one place where you made the assumption. I used the quote function so you can see it is your own words and can identify where we are seeing it.

3971
 
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Jeffrey Pearce

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #23 on: April 30, 2017, 12:14:02 PM »

Greg,

I have no problem with the quote you have included. Thank you, Greg.

My membership, I believe, is due to expire today. I have decided not to renew my membership. I believe this decision is in order as far as I am concerned. It is out of respect for TIGHAR that I have decided to do this.

Thank you, TIGHAR, for the opportunity to get involved concerning the disappearance of Amelia Earhart.

Sincerely,

Jeff Pearce
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