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Would Amelia Earhart have made an in air radio broadcast saying she was going to land on an island?

Very high probability
- 2 (66.7%)
High probability
- 1 (33.3%)
Possibly
- 0 (0%)
Probably not
- 0 (0%)
Absolutely not
- 0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 3

Voting closed: December 27, 2016, 06:40:48 PM


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Author Topic: The last hour+  (Read 3594 times)

Jeffrey Pearce

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The last hour+
« on: December 13, 2016, 06:40:48 PM »

Would Amelia Earhart have made an in air radio broadcast announcing she was going to land on an island?
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #1 on: December 13, 2016, 06:47:34 PM »

Yes.

She probably made a lot of transmissions, following the transmission schedule she had prepared beforehand.

The next question, of course, is: If Amelia did transmit her intentions to land on a reef next to an island, did anyone hear her?

As people often say, singing in unison with Carl Sagan, "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence."
LTM,

           Marty
           TIGHAR #2359A
 
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Jeffrey Pearce

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #2 on: December 13, 2016, 06:52:09 PM »

Yes, Marty. That would be my next question, or, poll. Would her radio broadcast have been heard? This is a question I will leave for the experts.

Jeff
Member 3396S
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Jeffrey Pearce

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #3 on: December 17, 2016, 06:07:22 AM »

In the last few days I have reread chapter 13-The Itasca and Howland Island-of Elgin Long's book. I also reread some of chapter 14-The Search for Earhart. I wanted to see if by what Long said there could have been a last minute south bound run that could have ended with a landing at Gardner Island. Earhart made a broadcast  at 0803 ISTGardner Island?(Itasca Ship Time) that he said "was very loud and sounded even closer than before."  So, Earhart was still getting closer to Howland Island. Her next broadcast was at 0843 IST. Long states "She was loud, at the same strength she had been an hour earlier at 0742 IST". However, Long shortly thereafter says "For the first time, her signal was not quite as strong as the preceding signal had been.". Was Earhart on her way southward toward Gardner Island? and getting further away from Howland Island?  Nothing was heard from Earhart again.
 
Would the 40 minutes between 0803 IST and 0843 IST be enough to result in a landing at Gardner Island? One could add some additional minutes to these 40 minutes but I don't think it would be logical to go beyond that. How about 20 minutes more for a total of one hour flying time to Gardner Island. At 0742 IST Earhart said she had only one hour of fuel left. That one hour ended at the time of her last broadcast at 0843 IST.

One could work one's way back from Gardner Island and find a starting point or points for Earhart's run to a Gardner Island landing utilizing a projected aircraft speed she may have used in the run to Gardner.

Concerning whether or not a possible in air announcement by Earhart was made announcing she was going to land on an island, it would be interesting to conduct a test of in air radio reception by placing like equipment at Howland Island and in a plane south of Howland Island(identical equipment would be ideal) at the times and date, July 2 give or take a few days, and remake her known announcements along with additional testing after her last 0843 IST broadcast to see what would be learned. Or, would expert testimony suffice in lieu of such a test?

Jeff
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« Last Edit: December 18, 2016, 02:49:15 PM by Jeffrey Pearce »
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Matt Revington

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #4 on: December 17, 2016, 04:11:54 PM »

The relationship between apparent strength of radio signal and proximity to Howland is not a simple correlation, there has been research done previously by Tighar on this
Ie https://tighar.org/Publications/TTracks/2008Vol_24/donut.pdf
« Last Edit: December 17, 2016, 04:19:26 PM by Matt Revington »
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Jeffrey Pearce

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #5 on: April 19, 2017, 01:33:06 PM »

It is only logical to consider whether or not an in air radio broadcast made by Amelia Earhart announcing she was going to land on an island, i.e. Gardner Island, would be heard at Howland Island.
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Jeffrey Pearce

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2017, 03:02:53 PM »

Amelia Earhart would want to announce that she was going to land on an island, i.e. Gardner Island, before she landed. Her life was at stake and she would want to get her announcement out before a landing.
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Alfred Hendrickson

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2017, 09:50:39 PM »

I'm trying to understand this thread. Help me out, please. What is the point?

Her radio transmissions, other than the ones that were heard and transcribed, are unknown, and unknowable.
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Matt Revington

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2017, 01:54:37 PM »

Jeff, I for one, and most others I suspect, would agree that it would be reasonable for AE to have sent several radio messages as she flew south and to have sent a message when she saw Niku but no such messages were reported after 8:43 am that day.
  Either she did transmit and for whatever reason/cause was not heard (ie propagation/equipment issues, poor radio practices ) or she did not transmit (already crashed and sank, other unknowable reason).
If you conducted the recreation of the flight that you mentioned above and radio messages were heard at Howland it would not rule out the possibility that AE landed on Niku and if messages were not heard it would not confirm the landing due to the large number of ambiguities and unknowns involved.   Finding physical proof of the presence of the Electra, AE or FN on Niku is still the most definitive way to confirm the hypothesis and where it makes the most sense for Tighar to direct its resources.
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Jeffrey Pearce

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #9 on: April 23, 2017, 02:36:02 PM »

Alfred and Matt,

I believe most would agree that Amelia Earhart would have made a radio broadcast from the Electra while the Electra was in the air announcing she was going to land on an island. TIGHAR suggests that island would be Gardner Island. Her life simply depended on getting this announcement out before a landing. I believe it is correct to say that an announcement of this kind was not heard by the Itasca off Howland Island. If a test was performed by the best people possible  to recreate the radio broadcasts made by Amelia Earhart during at least the last hour or so of her flight I believe the results of the test could determine whether or not Amelia Earhart actually landed on an island, i.e. Gardner Island according to TIGHAR. If the test results show that an in air announcement by Amelia Earhart would have been heard at Howland Island this would indicate that Amelia Earhart did not make the in air announcement because it would have been received if she had and therefore in all probability would mean Amelia Earhart did not land on an island, i.e. Gardner Island.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2017, 02:46:57 PM by Jeffrey Pearce »
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Greg Daspit

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #10 on: April 23, 2017, 07:21:40 PM »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqS9GXM7nag
See this video
This thread probably belongs in Radio Reflections
3971
 
« Last Edit: April 23, 2017, 07:50:46 PM by Greg Daspit »
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Alfred Hendrickson

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #11 on: April 23, 2017, 09:13:00 PM »

There is so much wrong with your thought process, I hardly know where to start.

You have strung together a series of guesses and seek to conclude from it that a landing on Gardner did not occur. You have not convinced me.
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Jeff Lange

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #12 on: April 23, 2017, 10:19:57 PM »

Unfortunately, it is impossible to recreate any transmissions from the Earhart aircraft as we do not/can not know in any perfect sense the exact equipment, and condition of said equipment, especially the antenna(s) at the time of her disappearance. You also cannot duplicate the atmospheric conditions of a previous era due to all the changes that have occurred in our atmosphere in the decades since. Then we come to your line about the, "best people possible" and I am left to wonder by which criteria are we to pick these "best people"? It all sounds like such an easy thing to do, but in all actuality it can't be done.
Jeff Lange

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Greg Daspit

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #13 on: April 24, 2017, 11:14:07 AM »

When they left Lae the morning before(in daylight), they were supposed to transmit every 18 minutes past the hour.  All of these planned transmissions were not heard in the first 4 hours of the flight, all in daylight. Therefore there was likely a problem with hearing them on freq. 6210(their daylight freq.) when less than about 500 miles away. Gardner Island is 350 miles away from Howland.
So based on this likely problem with freq. 6210, the next morning when they switched to it as they said they were going to do, they were too close to hear again. Ric explained this better in the video.

Shortly after Earhart said they were going to change frequencies, Itasca stopped hearing them. However by 1855, when again on 3105, Itasca heard them. “We hear her on 3105 Kcs now, very weak and unreadable/voice.”
https://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Research/ResearchPapers/Brandenburg/signalcatalog2.html

3971
 
« Last Edit: May 03, 2017, 04:34:42 PM by Greg Daspit »
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Jeffrey Pearce

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Re: The last hour+
« Reply #14 on: April 24, 2017, 12:42:57 PM »

Alfred,

Your Reply #11 in all truthfulness is probably undeserving of a response, other recent replies are considerably more informed and respectful, but I felt it necessary to let it be known that I am not, to use your words, "guessing" anything and I am not trying to prove, again using your words, "THAT A LANDING ON GARDNER DID NOT OCCUR". I, along with others with a like understanding of the Amelia Earhart disappearance situation, just want to learn the facts so a determination can possibly be made regarding where the termination point was for Amelia Earhart's flight to Howland Island.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2017, 12:50:11 PM by Jeffrey Pearce »
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