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Author Topic: Betty and Bob  (Read 90761 times)

Leon R White

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Re: Betty and Bob
« Reply #30 on: March 28, 2013, 05:19:03 PM »

This is probably the wrong place but i can't find it in the topics.  Has any attempt been made to theorize as to what the rest of Betty's transcribed Amelia notes mean?  If not, should this be the start of the topic?  It would seem to be important if any of the other text corroborated something and I thought sure that someone would have taken a whack already.

thnks
Leon
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Betty and Bob
« Reply #31 on: March 28, 2013, 07:57:48 PM »

Do we know if it was "one-fifty-eight" or "one-five-eight" or even "one-hundred-fifty-eight" ?

No, we don't know and asking Betty now would not give us a reliable answer.
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Ted G Campbell

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Re: Betty and Bob
« Reply #32 on: March 28, 2013, 08:44:46 PM »

Ric,

I rarely disagree with you and your opinions but here I do.  You are a pilot, as am I, and we have been taught how to use the radio with regard to transmitting information.

I know times have changed since the 1930’s but I doubt that the basic communication skills have change very much over the years.  If you were to report a heading, distance, waypoint, etc. in any form other then digit by digit ATC would be all over you.

Betty, on the other hand was a young girl without pilot training (this is an assumption on my part) and therefore would not know the proper protocol regarding radio communications.  Today Betty may not know the proper protocol but if she responded to the question of “how did the numbers come across” and she said digit by digit I think that would be significant.  On the other hand if she responded the numbers came across as a “value – all run together” that also would be significant.

If all run together – no harm done and no further inquiry necessary.  If digit by digit – one more reason to believe the record is legitimate (not proof) but an added level of confidence.

Asking has no harm as I see it.

Ted Campbell
 
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Betty and Bob
« Reply #33 on: March 29, 2013, 01:12:50 AM »

Asking has no harm as I see it.

Anything Betty tells us now is a recollection of an event that happened over 75 years ago.
If I ask Betty she will probably give us an answer and it would be her best attempt to recall what she heard but there would be no way for us to know whether her recollection was accurate. That is true of everything she has told us that elaborates upon what is written down in the notebook.  What she wrote in July 1937 is a reliable record of what she heard, or thought she heard. Anything she wrote or said later, or may say now, is based on memory - and memory is not reliable.  Some of the passages in her notebook are explanations and clarifications that she added years later.  They are based on memory and, as such, are less reliable than the original transcription, but we tend to accept them as equal in reliability to what she wrote when she was sitting in front of her radio. They are not. They are valuable because they are explanations and clarifications that predate her association with TIGHAR and her knowledge of our hypothesis, but they do not carry the same weight as the original transcription.  Similarly, the explanations and clarifications that she provided in the 2000 videotaped interview are valuable but there is no way to know how accurate they are.
So if I ask her now whether the numbers she wrote down were heard as separate digits or whole numbers, whatever she says will be used to draw conclusions that are built on sand.
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Dan Swift

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Re: Betty and Bob
« Reply #34 on: March 29, 2013, 06:37:54 AM »

Back to the accuracy of the date, what did Betty's Dad do for a living?  I am sure that has been discussed but I missed it.  That 'could' help determine if he worked on Saturday or Sunday.  And school was out for summer for Betty.  And the only difference in any day was whether your parent(s) were home or at work.  The days could run together when out of school for three months, but IF you father did or did not work on a particular day such as a weekend day, then it would be memorable. 
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William R Davis

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Re: Betty and Bob
« Reply #35 on: March 29, 2013, 07:50:14 AM »

I thought I might offer what I viewed about tides. I grew up on Cape Cod driving my Jeep out on the large sand flats on the north side. At low tide and the wind is off shore, the flats can often extend out much farther than when the wind is on shore. If the wind is brisk and on shore, it can reduce the flats considerably. Yet sky can be blue and clear. There is this link that may explain better:

http://noc.ac.uk/f/content/using-science/Info_Tides_and_meteorological_effects.pdf

The elevation of the reef flats would need to be taken into account. I don't know if it would be possible to get a wind speed and direction for the day in question?
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Betty and Bob
« Reply #36 on: March 29, 2013, 09:33:33 AM »

Back to the accuracy of the date, what did Betty's Dad do for a living?  I am sure that has been discussed but I missed it.  That 'could' help determine if he worked on Saturday or Sunday.  And school was out for summer for Betty.  And the only difference in any day was whether your parent(s) were home or at work.  The days could run together when out of school for three months, but IF you father did or did not work on a particular day such as a weekend day, then it would be memorable.

Ken Klenck worked for the power company in a 9 to 5 weekdays office job.  He also sometimes did pick-up work as a handyman but it seems unlikely that he would be doing that on the 4th of July.
BTW, the reason the Klenck family had a fancy home radio was because employees of the power company got a discount on electric appliances.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2013, 11:17:57 AM by Ric Gillespie »
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Randy Conrad

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Re: Betty and Bob
« Reply #37 on: March 29, 2013, 11:05:01 AM »

In reference to Betty's notebook...is it possible Ric...that the numbers that are running together are in reference to an aeronautical or maritime map coordinates. The reason I say this is because there was a part of her writing that was "fig.8". It almost suggests that she might have been using her map to give her coordinates. And beings how Amelia wasn't quite up to navigating...I believe she went off of what she had at the time. Another thing to think about...is when I was younger some maps went off of alphabetic and numeric sequence to pinpoint certain grids on a map!!! I believe with Betty's notebook that these numbers or digits are in fact genuine, and it proves that Amelia was reading off of something, because Fred was too injured to navigate anything. Also, in this notebook I noticed words like Bob and Uncle....was Amelia trying to speak in military dialogue. Like A..Alpha...B...Bravo....C...Charlie....Just a thought!!!
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Dan Swift

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Re: Betty and Bob
« Reply #38 on: March 29, 2013, 11:09:12 AM »

There you go Ric!  Then it was the 5th. 
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Betty and Bob
« Reply #39 on: March 29, 2013, 11:33:01 AM »

In reference to Betty's notebook...is it possible Ric...that the numbers that are running together are in reference to an aeronautical or maritime map coordinates. The reason I say this is because there was a part of her writing that was "fig.8". It almost suggests that she might have been using her map to give her coordinates. And beings how Amelia wasn't quite up to navigating...I believe she went off of what she had at the time.

I think that is entirely possible.  She doesn't know where she is.  Noonan is out of his head but there are notations on his charts that may mean something to somebody so she reads them into the microphone.

Also, in this notebook I noticed words like Bob and Uncle....was Amelia trying to speak in military dialogue. Like A..Alpha...B...Bravo....C...Charlie....Just a thought!!!

You're referring to phonetic alphabet.  It existed back then but was not in wide use and the phonetic words for the letters were different than they are today.  The phonetic alphabet in 1937 was the one in use since 1927.  "B" was Boy and "U" was Unit.  Earhart's radio call sign, KHAQQ, said according to the phonetic alphabet in use at that time, would be (believe it or not) King Hypo Affirmative Quack Quack.  Can you imagine AE saying that instead of KHAQQ?
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Dan Swift

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Re: Betty and Bob
« Reply #40 on: March 29, 2013, 12:03:20 PM »

"Hypo Affirmative Quack"  Now that makes sense!  LOL! 
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Betty and Bob
« Reply #41 on: March 29, 2013, 12:26:20 PM »

"Hypo Affirmative Quack"  Now that makes sense!  LOL!

Makes you wonder whether the FCC was editorializing when they assigned that call sign.
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jgf1944

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Re: Betty and Bob
« Reply #42 on: March 30, 2013, 01:50:58 PM »

Hi Betty and Bob Bloggers;
   When I study B's Notebook, I do not invest much in the clarifications that Betty made in 2000. For example, toward the end of the notebook observe that she has FN exiting the aircraft with AE to follow. If the exit point was the forward hatch, the departure order is not SOP, which always called for AE out first so she would not be stepped on. Also, check out the important transcription "Waters knee deep -- let me out." Betty associated those words to AE and the man--in here he was yelling. What that literally says is that AE and FN simultaneously said Waters knee deep. Does strike you as accurate? as realistic? If it does not, then you must make your own interpretation, per either AE or FN saying Waters knee deep. But when you do that, you have injected a contaminant into the data. I think B's Notebook can be seductive in terms of what all researchers are looking for: a fount of truth and beauty! Realistically, I think the Notebook has a few of kernels of truth to nourish us on the long journey. Just a thought. All Best, J.G. Ford.     
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Ben Stevens

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Re: Betty and Bob
« Reply #43 on: March 30, 2013, 06:48:37 PM »

We have acknowledged an apparent discrepancy between Brandenburg's water level calculations for a particular point on the reef surface over time and references to knee deep water in transcribed phrases we attribute to Noonan. A number of reasonable explanations have been offered. 

A number of explanations have been offered, but I’m not as convinced as you are that any of these help explain the discrepancy.  Perhaps rather than trying to go through these one by one, I’m wondering, perhaps I can ask Ric  a question: if you were to update the Betty’s Notes in Ameliapedia, what would you give as the one or two best explanations for the Bob/Betty discrepancy?

On the ‘swells at high tide’ issue, there has been little or no commentary so far. Since there has been a lot of intervening commentary, remember that according to Bob’s tide reconstruction, the radio transmitter would have been rendered inoperable due to flooding unless incoming swells/waves were:

- less than ~ 10 inches during the high tide at ~1400 GMT on July 4;

- less than ~12 inches during the high tide at ~ 0300 on July 5;

- and less than ~6 inches during the high tide at 1500 GMT on July 5.

I think that it is fair to say that, unless seas were fortuitously calm for our unfortuitous aviators, many of the post loss transmissions, including the one Betty received, would not have occurred.
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Adam Marsland

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Re: Betty and Bob
« Reply #44 on: March 30, 2013, 06:50:45 PM »

I think it's always important when looking at any of these post-loss messages to think not just phoenetically but in terms of people tending to translate unknown information in terms that fits into their realm of experience.  I.e., if someone said the uncommon word "detritus" most people would not immediately understand it, and would first try to fit it into their own experience (e.g.  "Detroit what?").

I've always thought fig.8 was 58 -- another occurrence of the 158/338 fragments which seem to keep repeating throughout the notebook. 

Back to the topic at hand...this seeming discrepancy, rather than calling things into serious doubt, seems to me to have potential to give us some serious insight as to what happened. 

I know that the current theory is the plane got dragged over the reef.  Is there any reason to assume that this happened all in one day?  Consider, if you will, the possibility that the plane was being dragged a measurable distance towards the reef flat by each receding tide.  If that's possible, then consider the possibility that by the 5th, the plane had gotten so far into the deep water that Earhart started to fear that she was about to lose the plane and that each potential transmission might be her last.  It also contributes mightily to understanding the panicked atmosphere within the plane and the obsession with the water level.  Betty's Notebook, which I tend to believe, did always strike me as being a bit over the top....HOWEVER, if the situation is the plane is getting closer and closer to the reef edge every day and into deeper water, and there's a very real possibility that this transmission might be their last, it explains both the panicked atmosphere and why this particular transmission went on so very long....they might have seen it as their very last chance to transmit.

It also dovetails with what little we know of what happened next.  After July 5, little to no radio activity.  By July 9, there (apparently) is no visible plane and, (again apparently, we don't know for sure) no sign of Earhart and Noonan on the beach, either.  If the plane goes over July 5-6, that gives our heroes 3-4 days to assess their situation, fail to be rescued, and then to possibly decamp. 

It all tracks to me...better, in fact, than it has done up 'til this point.
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