TIGHAR

Amelia Earhart Search Forum => Celestial choir => Topic started by: Jeff Victor Hayden on July 12, 2012, 08:29:22 AM

Title: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Jeff Victor Hayden on July 12, 2012, 08:29:22 AM
I have recently been investigating why Itasca decided to search NW of Howland Island. Obviously there must have been a reason or, a number of reasons based upon the known facts at the time, to go charging off in a certain direction ASAP. I must be missing something because all I have found so far is that 'the North West was the area with least visibility' I.e. The most cloudy.
Where am I going wrong, there must be a more logical reason.
I don't know if it has been discussed before, if not it might be worth a new thread.
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on July 12, 2012, 09:24:08 AM
... all I have found so far is that 'the North West was the area with least visibility' I.e. The most cloudy.

Where am I going wrong? There must be a more logical reason.

The place to begin is with "The 1937 Search: The First 24 Hours." (http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Research/ResearchPapers/first24hours.html) 

I would like to quibble about whether "there must be a more logical reason."  I don't think there is an axiom (self-evident or derived from self-evident axioms) from which you can reach this conclusion.   ;)
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Jeff Victor Hayden on July 12, 2012, 09:42:37 AM
I have read that Marty thanks. I just find it hard to believe that the search North West of Howland by Itasca in the first 24 hours was instigated because it was deemed to be the place with 'visibility issues'?
I was looking for more substantial reasons I.e. Radio transmission indications, direction finding indications, reported position indications, range of transmission indications.
Something more substantial that indicated where to head towards other than the visibility issue that Itasca quoted.
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Jeff Victor Hayden on July 12, 2012, 10:00:08 AM
Most intriguing is that Thompson never stated to anyone outside of the Itasca crew as to why he chose the NW until July 16, when the US Navy search leader asked Itasca about probable drift patterns and where plane was most likely to have come down. The reason was that visibility was clear in all directions, except to the north and west at approximately 50 nm range, near the limits of Itasca’s observations.

Seems a bit thin, the reason to search NW of Howland in the first 24 hours?
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Jeff Victor Hayden on July 12, 2012, 10:39:16 AM
5. Commander Warner K. Thompson of the Itasca radioed at the time that CONDITIONS END OF FLIGHT CLEAR BLUE SKY SOUTH AND EAST OF HOWLAND HEAVY CLOUD BANKS APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES NORTH AND WEST OF HOWLAND PERIOD ITASCA LAID HEAVY SMOKE SCREEN FOR TWO HOURS WHICH HAD NOT DISINTEGRATED AND CLEARLY VISIBLE FROM SOUTH AND EAST FOR 40 OR MORE MILES AT ALTITUDE 1000 FT PERIOD DOUBTFUL IF VISIBLE FROM OVER 20 MILES FROM NORTH AND WEST . . . CLOUDY WEATHER AND EVIDENTLY FLYING IN CLOUDS UNTIL LAST FEW MINUTES OF FLIGHT . . . COULD NOT HAVE FAILED TO SEE SMOKE SCREEN IF SHE PASSED SOUTH PERIOD.

Again, the search to the North West of Howland was based upon assumptions that the TIGHAR forum members have questioned recently.
The smokescreen visibility?
The timing of making smoke?
How close they actually were to Howland?
How the cloud cover might have been a factor in not locating Howland
How a search pattern, even a small one, would have brought them into the visibility ranges stated above, even if they were to the North West


Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Jeff Victor Hayden on July 12, 2012, 11:01:17 AM
This situation reminds me of the famous chandelier episode from 'only fools and horses'. A simple task of removing a chandelier for cleaning is scuppered due to lack of communication and assumptions.
Take a look...
  http://youtu.be/Nkx-UNhkedc   (http://youtu.be/Nkx-UNhkedc)
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: JNev on July 12, 2012, 11:09:54 AM
By what I can understand of it all, the visibility rationale may have been the most quantifiable reason Thompson could record.  After reading the account I am left with a sense that NW was the strongest instinct to the commander of the Itasca.  Sitting at Howland after the airplane was believed out of fuel probably was not a defendable option - something had to be done.  Maybe that's the seaman's first urge - do something to save a soul lost at sea, the best that you can. 

A best-direction had to be chosen since there could only be one direction.  The flight could have terminated in any direction - but given what he heard from AE's observations, her failure to see Itasca or Howland, and by Itasca's own observations from the Howland area, the direction of poorest visibility was perhaps something to hang his hat on, IMHO.

I can see why one might feel that is weak - but as Marty noted, what other factors were there that could be seen as stronger?  There were not many distinctly good choices, at least as I see it.

LTM -
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Jeff Victor Hayden on July 12, 2012, 11:18:36 AM
That's a good summary of the position the Itasca found themselves in Jeff. Now add the search pattern calculations we have been looking at recently to the Itasca visibility ranges for seeing their smoke in the weather conditions at the time in different directions and it comes apart.
IMHO of course
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on July 12, 2012, 11:35:08 AM
I just find it hard to believe that the search North West of Howland by Itasca in the first 24 hours was instigated because it was deemed to be the place with 'visibility issues'?

OK.  But now we enter the world of speculation, cut loose from the ties of contemporary documentation.  Maybe we can divine something in the Captain's mind that he didn't mention; maybe not.

Taking your list first:
Additional reasoning: AE said she was "low on fuel" ("30 minute" message disputed).  If she was within 100 miles and was running out of gas, she would have to be in a relatively searchable area, wouldn't she?
I don't think Thompson made a bad decision, given the information he had available that morning.  He wanted to get out of the "visibility zone" of the Itasca and start searching for the downed and possibly drowning aviators.  Since they were coming from the west, the western side of that zone made sense.  He couldn't search everywhere, so he had to choose somewhere. 

What other thought should have kept him from heading NW? 

What other data came in later that morning that should have kept him on station?

[Oooooooh.  Suppose AE and FN stayed in the air, doing a LaPook search from the south while the Itasca headed northwest.  The absence of the ship and the smoke (however useful it might have been) would reduce the visibility of Howland.  It wouldn't be hard to get the endpoint of the LaPook search within five miles of Howland.  Gack!  ??? ]
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Anthony Allen Roach on July 12, 2012, 11:38:34 AM
When I was composing my last post yesterday in the category for "Black Smoke,"  I got the sense that Commander Thompson was really in the dark about the capabilities of the Electra.  It seemed that he thought the Electra could travel much faster than it could, and there was obviously confusion over the communications and direction finding plan.  I don't blame Commander Thompson.  (Some internet commentators have called him negligent.)  In reviewing the primary source authority in "Finding Amelia" and on this site, I got the sense that Commander Thompson was dispatched at the last minute and not given very good information.  It seems that he based his search plan on the information that he had in his possession at the time.
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Jeff Victor Hayden on July 12, 2012, 11:49:43 AM
Itasca played the percentages based upon the best information they had, Exactly! So wouldn't we do the same? don't waste any more fuel and head toward the bigger percentages.
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Jeff Victor Hayden on July 12, 2012, 01:10:23 PM
Gary was kind enough to work out a typical search pattern that they might have considered...

At 1912 Z they have a four hour reserve of fuel and they know that they must have missed Howland. Noonan passes a note to Earhart.

"Turn left now to 067 degrees and maintain that heading until 1932 Z.
Then turn left to 337 degrees and maintain that heading until 1952 Z.
Then turn left to 247 degrees and maintain that heading until 2032 Z.
Then turn left to 157 degrees and maintain that heading until 2112 Z.
Then turn left to 067 degrees and maintain that heading until 2212 Z.
Then turn left to 337 degrees and maintain that heading until 2312 Z."

The first two legs take 20 minutes and cover 40 NM, twice the visibility. The next two legs take 40 minutes and cover 80 NM, four times visibility, the next two legs take 60 minutes and cover 120 NM, six times visibility. At the end of the four hours of fuel they have searched a box 160 NM on a side covering 25,600 square nautical miles, basically 80 NM in each direction from the starting position.


Now, just as a scenario let's place them 200 miles NW of Howland with this search pattern up and running. We now have Itasca heading NW towards them thus improving the chances of the search pattern. Also with the additional bonus of a ships wake as well as the ship to be seen. And of course they would be heading into the area where the ditching would have taken place, if it was actually that area.
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Gary LaPook on July 12, 2012, 01:57:26 PM
I have read that Marty thanks. I just find it hard to believe that the search North West of Howland by Itasca in the first 24 hours was instigated because it was deemed to be the place with 'visibility issues'?
I was looking for more substantial reasons I.e. Radio transmission indications, direction finding indications, reported position indications, range of transmission indications.
Something more substantial that indicated where to head towards other than the visibility issue that Itasca quoted.
Well, in which direction would you have searched based only on the information that Thompson had available at the time?

There was a famous correspondence between Liebniz and Issac Newton about the character of space. Liebniz's argument was that if space was everywhere uniform, as Newton believed, then God, who is perfect, would not be able to decide in what part of that space to create the universe.

But in real life people have to make real decisions, and people are not perfect. If you are in the exact center of a room with doors on each side of the room that are all exactly the same distance from you and the room is on fire, according to Liebniz you would die there because you couldn't make a logical decision about which door to use to escape the fire. But real, imperfect, people will choose one of those doors and get away from the fire.

Thompson had Earhart's report that they were on the 157°-337° LOP which, by standard navigational methods, is centered on the destination, Howland island. With just this piece of information Thompson had the choice of either 157° or 337° to search, any other direction is a less likely place for the plane to be. If the plane was on the 157° line SSE of Howland then the plane would have been flying in clear skys where Noonan could be taking observations of the sun and moon (Thompson could see ol' mister moon shinning up there in the sky) and doing accurate navigation and so should have had no trouble finding Howland. Looking NNW up the 337° branch of the LOP, Thompson saw clouds that could be preventing Noonan doing accurate navigation so, logically, they were more likely to be in that direction to the NNW of Howland.

So, back to my question to you, "Well, in which direction would you have searched based only on the information that Thompson had available at the time?" and why?

gl 
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: JNev on July 12, 2012, 03:02:26 PM
...Thompson had Earhart's report that they were on the 157°-337° LOP which, by standard navigational methods, is centered on the destination, Howland island. With just this piece of information Thompson had the choice of either 157° or 337° to search, any other direction is a less likely place for the plane to be. If the plane was on the 157° line SSE of Howland then the plane would have been flying in clear skys where Noonan could be taking observations ...Looking NNW up the 337° branch of the LOP, Thompson saw clouds that could be preventing Noonan doing accurate navigation so, logically, they were more likely to be in that direction to the NNW of Howland.

Gary, I'm not positive but that may be the first time you have ever stated NR16020's proximity to the 157°-337° LOP as a reasonable probability, with regard to near the end of the flight anyway...  ;)

Quote
So, back to my question to you, "Well, in which direction would you have searched based only on the information that Thompson had available at the time?" and why?

gl

I would agree that 'NW' makes sense.

I am left wondering, however - why would Thompson have not had a greater sense of the possibility of NR16020 complicating that picture by believing she was engaged in a box search, as you have believed probable?  It seems, as discussed here, there was no information present at the time suggesting that possibility.

Would that be simply because Thompson just wasn't familiar with the techniques Noonan would have likely used?

LTM -
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: John Hart on July 12, 2012, 03:18:54 PM
I'm with Gary on this one. I might add, before someone brings it up, that because Itasca went NNW and AE and FN did not see it does not mean they were not NW of Howland. Tiny ship on a big ocean with WX. It was interesting to read the report from Colorado skipper. Paints a clearer picture of WX and vis. CU N and W out at 50 NM and smoke vis 40 NM from S and E. less from N and W as I mentioned under smoke thread. Makes me believe more that they gave up well short of Howland and were W and or NW.  I still believe they search to a decision fuel then pressed SE probably on about a 140 heading aiming at middle of PIs to account for location uncertainty. From anywhere within 60NM of Howland that would take them to PIs. How long they would have searched depends on fuel state when they started. I doubt they did a full rectangle. If W and NW throughout that evolution they would have been affected by WX the whole time and chances of finding tiny Howland and Baker slim.

My opinion, stated enough so agree or disagree as you wish.

I wish I had more time to browse. That excerpt from Colorado is very useful to understand conditions better. Unfortunately back at the grindstone and no time for fun.

The world still wonders with baited breath.

JB
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: John Ousterhout on July 12, 2012, 04:25:42 PM
Jeff, I think you came close to answering your own question - the Itasca didn't have any better 'substantial reasons' to base their search on.  The captain looked around, could not imagine AE missing the island/ship/smoke unless her view was obscured by clouds, so he headed towards the only heavily clouded area he could see.  He may have considered Gary's point about the LOP as well, which would give him two reasons to look in that direction, and no good reasons to look in any other direction.
Here we are, 75 years later, and still trying to guess where to search based on 'would have, should have' reasoning.
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: JNev on July 12, 2012, 04:52:45 PM
I'm with Gary on this one.

I certainly agree - already made same point.

Quote
I might add, before someone brings it up, that because Itasca went NNW and AE and FN did not see it does not mean they were not NW of Howland. Tiny ship on a big ocean with WX. It was interesting to read the report from Colorado skipper. My opinion, stated enough so agree or disagree as you wish.

I wish I had more time to browse. That excerpt from Colorado is very useful to understand conditions better. Unfortunately back at the grindstone and no time for fun.

The world still wonders with baited breath.

JB

What your comment about "I might add..." makes me realize is that my playful jab at Gary about the search pattern, etc. put me into relative 'thread drift' - unintended.

So, what's to disagree with?  As to the topic, I well agree with the rationale we seem to have about why Thompson did as he did.  I don't see how I'd do differently if in his shoes, by all I can understand.

But woe to any who think they have a lock on where the bird was, or wasn't, or could not be.  We will always be stuck with so much that is ambiguous in the whole big picture.  They could have slipped right by the ship within a few miles, hit the LOP, done a cursory north-north-west, then reversed and flown 157 right into oblivion for all we know; or, Itasca may have sailed right over NR16020's shattered remains a couple of miles beneather her keel for that matter.

One thing is for certain: Itasca never found a trace of her despite Thompson's best and worthy efforts.

LTM -
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: John Hart on July 12, 2012, 05:14:26 PM
Jeff,

You are exactly right. I hope those who have read my COAs realize that any one of them could have been chosen. I have my beliefs and I use that word purposely not to get caught up in Marty and Malcolm's debate. I stated the COA I think they chose. I am more committed to it now having a better picture of the WX. If they were at 1000 feet under CU I think FN would have said "to Hell with this..." quicker than if in the clear.

That being said there is another possibility that I have not brought up yet as it isn't a COA and doesn't change the outcome from the "searching till run out of gas" theory as the airplane winds up in the big ocean never to be found.

That is the possibility that she got so focused on looking she flew right into the water. We call it distraction. A failure in proper task management. There are USAF time to impact tables derived for different airspeeds and descent rates precisely to show us how quick we can die from inattention at low alt. controlled flight into the ground is the USAF term and accounts for a significant number of accidents.

This theory has no more application to TIGHAR efforts than any of the alternative theories do as it places the airplane at an unfindable place given current technology and funding. Even if you could map the entire ocean floor in the S Pacific can you imagine how many twin engine airplanes are down there?  So, as Dr Ballard said, you look where the odds are good for finding. Otherwise you don't look at all.

JB
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: john a delsing on July 12, 2012, 11:04:34 PM
John Hart,
   A couple of ‘fun’ questions if you don’t mind:  If you had to land your f16 or f4 at Gardner (no bailing allowed) which would you choose and why? Where would you put it, lagoon, beach, reef, ocean? What else would you try to do with the plane, gear up, speed, etc? What kind of odds would you give your self of a walk away ( or swim away).  Don’t bother comparing these with the Electra and Amelia as we all know there is quite a difference.
    Thanks,  Johnny D.
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Jeff Victor Hayden on July 13, 2012, 06:38:46 AM
Sometimes when you look at the rationale behind decisions it gives you a clearer picture of what was happening at the time. I can see the reasons for heading off to the NW of Howland...
It was the area of least visibility and most cloud plus...
'we are on the line 157-337' 'we are running on line North and South'
So the decision was made that the most likely area to search first would be North of the line 157-337, toward the area of least visibility.
A good decision by Itasca for sure and, the only logical one they could come up with given the evidence they had to go on, so no blame on their part for failing to find them.
There is of course the option that the 'we must be on you' and '200' miles out and '100' miles out plus, the estimates of how close they were based on signal strength could apply to any points of the compass surrounding Howland. Including the '157-337' '... South'
The decision to head North may in fact have taken the Itasca further away from them, it was a 50/50 decision which had North as the 'apparently' best choice of 'running North and South on the line 157-337.
In hindsight I know

Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: John Hart on July 13, 2012, 06:45:19 AM
Johnny D,

That would be way off thread. Will take it to extraneous to discuss today vs 1937.

JB
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Jeff Victor Hayden on July 13, 2012, 08:38:58 AM
I have a certain amount of confidence in the chances of Itasca finding the Electra and, of AE and FN in finding the Itasca, why?
1. Well Itasca headed toward the area most likely to contain the Electra
2. They were close, based on signal strength
3. Fred would have implemented a search pattern
4. SAR tables show a high probability of a plane at 1000 ft seeing a White ship+wake+smoke
5. Itasca new they were running North and South of a LOP
6. Itasca estimated the visibility in the NW sector where they headed to be 20 miles

Of course this all amounts to a hill of beans if the Electra wasn't NW of Howland
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: John Hart on July 13, 2012, 09:09:28 AM
I am with you on items 1-3. But I diverge on 4 and 6.

4.  At 1000' the look angle out to 10 NM is 1 degree. Under CU there is haze. The more acute your look angle through haze the less you see. A white ship, like a white cloud, looks grey to black on the down sun side. Shadows and light areas under those clouds further complicate the view. A wake is good just not sure how much she made. Small ship one screw electric drive. I'm sure if I looked her specs would be on here somewhere.

6.  I have mentioned vis ship to sky is different to aircraft to surface. Especially if one were looking W and the other looking E.

We have worked with Navy and CG ships. Hard to see even when radar, etc help you find them.

Big sky, big ocean theories apply here. A better discussion might be sound as aircraft engines would have been sound focused under clouds. But not sure what blowers etc on Itasca would be like. Probably loud making hearing A/C difficult. Perhaps one of you Navy types would know.

As I said earlier, just because they did not find each other does not mean they were not somewhere NW at some point.

JB
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Jeff Victor Hayden on July 13, 2012, 09:30:15 AM
Good points on 4 and 6 John and your last sentence which brings me to my final point. They may very well have been in that area and not seen each other as you say.
1. Itasca didn't find any signs of a ditched/crashed plane NW of Howland despite heading there straight away
2. Electra wasn't NW of Howland, opposite direction of the running North and South on LOP?

Be interesting to find information on the wake put out by Itasca, there must be photos of Itasca under way somewhere. Even if it was only a couple of hundred yards it would help would it not?
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on July 13, 2012, 09:43:03 AM
A wake is good just not sure how much she made. Small ship one screw electric drive. I'm sure if I looked her specs would be on here somewhere.

Not that I know of.  There is a link to the Wikipedia article (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USCGC_Itasca_%281929%29), which has lots of information.
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Anthony Allen Roach on July 13, 2012, 01:02:38 PM
Quote
But not sure what blowers etc on Itasca would be like. Probably loud making hearing A/C difficult. Perhaps one of you Navy types would know.

That Air Force pilot sure knows a lot!  The forced draft blowers on the Duluth made an awful racket.  We had two boilers, and each boiler had one electric for light off, and two steam powered blowers once steam was up.  The steam blowers were turbines, powered by 600 auxiliary steam.  They were enclosed in sound proof booths on the upper level of the enginerooms.  If you were inside the booth, you had to wear double hearing protection (foam plugs plus mickey mouse headsets.)  I think an industrial survey rated the noise at around 120 dB.

Once you left the engineroom, the sound diminished until you were topside around the boat deck and the gun deck.  Those areas were close to the stacks, and the whine could be heard.  It was similar to the sound of a jet aircraft at idle.  When I read "Finding Amelia" I wondered if Chief Bellarts would have heard the sound of an approaching propeller aircraft if he was topside near the stack and any a/c sound was drowned out by those blowers.
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Jeff Victor Hayden on July 13, 2012, 01:13:23 PM
When I read "Finding Amelia" I wondered if Chief Bellarts would have heard the sound of an approaching propeller aircraft if he was topside near the stack and any a/c sound was drowned out by those blowers.

Once again, a good point Anthony. I haven't seen this point mentioned in any of the reports I have read, so far. It sure is a good example of what can be achieved with a good debate. IMHO noise from Itasca would have been a factor in not hearing an approaching airplane.
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: John Hart on July 13, 2012, 01:47:33 PM
Just found the track chart for Itasca on here. Wow you got a lot of stuff. Will I ever see it all?

Itasca didn't go that far NNW before turning E then NNE and then return to Howland to await inbound PBY. Tells me the WX observation to N was probably good. CU 50 NM north but probably estimated to W. WX may have been closer than 50 W. I can't imagine them being more than 50 short. That's a big error in GS. If WX was 30-40 W I could believe they would be searching 157/337 headings at 1000 under CU and never see island or ship. If they had come E of the WX I would expect them to climb to extend visible range. That would also facilitate some nav work by FN. I suspect WX was closer to W and their search visible range was poor. You all know what I think they did after a while of doing that so I won't repeat it.

Long before I was an AF pilot I was an avid historian with both nautical and aviation interests. When in HS I wanted to go to USNA to fly off carriers to combine both passions. But flying was at the top so when I found out all USAFA grads can fly but lower percentage at USNA I went west young man. I know as much about naval and land warfare in WWII as I do aerial. Would never go down in one but know a lot about WWII subs.  But I'll stick to flying aspects here. Been pounded enough trying to talk navigatorese.

JB
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Bruce Thomas on July 13, 2012, 02:04:02 PM
Just found the track chart for Itasca on here. Wow you got a lot of stuff. Will I ever see it all?

John, you probably already have discovered these index pages to the wealth of documentation. 

But, for any others who are still just Googling to find things on tighar.org, try either this index-by-document-type (http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Archives.html) or this index-by-subject (http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Archivessubject.html) in order to keep up with John!  :D
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Jeff Victor Hayden on July 14, 2012, 12:48:46 PM
Here are the actual Itasca deck logs. They contain a wealth of information regarding the conditions in the area at that time as the people who were there saw it.
Interesting to note that the people who were there at that time estimated the visibility better than 7, 8 and above, on all days...
7= Prominent objects not visible at 7 miles.
8= Prominent objects not visible at 20 miles.
9= Prominent objects visible above 20 miles.

http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Documents/Logs/Itascadecklog.pdf (http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Documents/Logs/Itascadecklog.pdf)
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: John Hart on July 14, 2012, 01:40:19 PM
Some interesting stuff. She did not get underway until 1040, two hours after last transmission. In my theory they would have long since been flying SSE.

Very close dry and wet bulb temps and warm water (83-84 degrees). Would have been very humid and hazy.

I see CU and Alto CU but not sure what "moving from" column means as it shows mostly E, NE. I can't imagine that means the puffies were E of them moving W.

More interesting detail to ponder.

TWW...

JB
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Jeff Victor Hayden on July 14, 2012, 05:37:55 PM
Itasca

http://www.uscg.mil/history/webcutters/Itasca_1930.pdf (http://www.uscg.mil/history/webcutters/Itasca_1930.pdf)
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: C.W. Herndon on July 14, 2012, 05:48:06 PM
Very interesting.  ::)
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Jeff Victor Hayden on July 14, 2012, 07:45:46 PM
Was just browsing through the Itasca deck logs and noticed the headings and course changes
Looked kind of strange. I was expecting to see some type of search pattern around the LOP
157/337 to the north.
A quick sketch on a note pad of the course taken by Itasca looked like a drunken fly had crawled around the note pad!
Is there a map somewhere in Tighars archives I can check my headings and route against?
I must be doing something wrong?
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: C.W. Herndon on July 14, 2012, 08:10:17 PM
Jeff, here is a Google Earth Picture that Eric posted in the Thread "Google Earth Coordinates, reply#25".

Hope this helps.   :)
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Jeff Victor Hayden on July 14, 2012, 08:16:50 PM
Thanks Woody, my understanding of the course appears to be correct! Wow!
I can now see how much the poor visibility NW of Howland influenced the search, at the expense of a search pattern around the northern part of the LOP of course.
It was a long shot I guess, assuming that the failure of AE and FN to locate Howland was due to visibility issues but, what else could they do?
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: C.W. Herndon on July 14, 2012, 08:22:30 PM
Here is a later version that Eric published. I'm not sure why he changed it. Probably need to read the whole discussion.  ???
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Bruce Thomas on July 14, 2012, 08:26:15 PM
Was just browsing through the Itasca deck logs and noticed the headings and course changes
Looked kind of strange. I was expecting to see some type of search pattern around the LOP
157/337 to the north.
A quick sketch on a note pad of the course taken by Itasca looked like a drunken fly had crawled around the note pad!
Is there a map somewhere in Tighars archives I can check my headings and route against?
I must be doing something wrong?

Check out all the search maps (http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Research/ResearchPapers/searchmaps/maplist.html).
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: C.W. Herndon on July 14, 2012, 08:32:55 PM
Thanks Bruce. That's Great.  :D
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Gary LaPook on July 15, 2012, 12:15:48 AM
Some interesting stuff. She did not get underway until 1040, two hours after last transmission. In my theory they would have long since been flying SSE.

Very close dry and wet bulb temps and warm water (83-84 degrees). Would have been very humid and hazy.

I see CU and Alto CU but not sure what "moving from" column means as it shows mostly E, NE. I can't imagine that means the puffies were E of them moving W.

More interesting detail to ponder.

TWW...

JB
We also discussed reading the weather code used for reporting the weather which you might find of interest.

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,587.msg9031.html#msg9031

gl
Title: Re: Why did the Itasca search to the Northwest of Howland?
Post by: Jeff Victor Hayden on July 15, 2012, 12:50:42 AM
Thanks for the link Bruce. The map of the combined search area, very interesting from the ditch/crash and sink scenario point of view given the time of arrival on site of each search vessel.