TIGHAR
Amelia Earhart Search Forum => The Islands: Expeditions, Facts, Castaway, Finds and Environs => Topic started by: Alan Williams on March 31, 2011, 06:12:44 AM
-
Isn't much that hasn't been addressed elsewhere as I'm sure this has, just woke up wondering...
After breaking down in rising tide and surf, what if the buoyancy of empty tanks allowed a majority of the Electra to float some distance off-shore, that is, out of the upcoming search zone before sinking? Hm, to what extent would that contradict historical eye-witness accounts of a wreck on the reef?
Anyhow, let's say accepting the greater Niku hypothesis, what if there was a final unfortunate twist to the mystery in 1937 with key pieces of the plane floating out of the upcoming underwater search area yet again denying the "smoking gun" discovery?
-
Tough question and, of course, no hard and fast answer. All we can do is speculate. If the "Nessie" photo shows a landing gear strut torn off and left behind on the reef edge, that could be the wreckage seen by Emily. A gear leg tearing free would not, in itself, damage the buoyancy of the aircraft. How long and how far might a mostly intact, buoyant aircraft float before sinking? A Model 10E with standard fuel tanks ditched off Cape Cod in 1967 and floated for about eight minutes. NR16020 would probably float longer. If it floated well out to sea before sinking in very deep water we're probably screwed. However, if that is what happened we should have no further evidence or reports of airplane wreckage on the island beyond the Nessie photo and Emily's account - but we do. We have photographic evidence of a debris field of light colored metal on the reef in 1953. We numerous anecdotal recollections of wreckage seen strewn on the reef and beach in the 1950s. We have scraps of aircraft components used for local purposes that we have found in the abandoned village that are consistent with the Model 10 and do not appear to be consistent with any other type. So to embrace a "floated away" hypothesis we must discount evidence that something else happened.
Think about this. If the surf is strong enough to tear the plane free from a gear leg, the sea is by no means calm. What's going to happen to the suddenly free-floating Electra? Is it going to drift serenely out to sea? Or is the next wave going to slam it back against the reef edge only for the plane to be sucked out again when the wave retreats? The cycle repeats until the battered hulk sinks in the relatively shallow water just seaward of the reef edge. Over ensuing years and storms, various components break free and wash ashore to be found and used. Heavier components make their way down the reef slope and over the edge into deep water.
-
Excellent description.
Re.: potential "smoking gun" discovery - as devil's advocate, couple questions:
I believe I've read the most likely candidate representing the "smoking gun" would be an engine, that along with a heavier item like landing strut (anything else that would have been big/heavy enough to have survived and be locatable at the bottom now?) Also, wouldn't the wings have been mostly tanks? Is it possible pounding surf could have separated the wings from the craft leaving the thinner, lighter materials of the fuselage on the reef then floated the engines further out? Related, wasn't there a report of a helicopter crew recovering what might have been a radial engine from a reef on an island that might have been Niku? Ha - if that were accurate wouldn't that be one engine gone, one remaining?
Oh well, just thinking out loud... we know from all the twists and turns this mystery is slippery and isn't giving up easily. With logic pointing to it, it is easy to imagine the next Niku expedition breaking out the champagne on the first afternoon of deep-water surveying... but then again, equally easy to imagine a return empty handed. Just one tough mystery.
-
Alan,
without referencing any links (sure i'll get a slapped wrist) when i re read Amelia Earharts Shoes the update version the Kanton engine was still a mystery of sorts. The engine is in land fill so a back hoe would have to get it out. The pilot Bruce thinks it was from a Phoenix island other than Kanton but other records make this unlikely but not financialy testable. But i could be wrong in my sumation :)
-
A place to begin reading about the "Canton Engine" is the Ameliapedia article (http://tighar.org/wiki/Kanton_(Canton)_Island). It contains links to articles in TIGHAR Tracks, etc.
-
Yes but i'd also recommend shoes the book as well
-
Thanks Bruce and Chris for pointing out the Kanton reference. I've read everything in the wiki and looks like the Kanton possibility remains unresolved and historical efforts ended in a somewhat unsatisfying way. Chris, without spoiling the story can you tell me how the book reference differs from the wiki?
***
Updated: after reading the account of the Kanton mission and seeing the reasons given for not pursuing the Kanton lead, it seems a non-trivial reason for not pursuing Kanton was that no located helo pilots seemed to remember picking up and transporting a radial engine as claimed. Could it be, let's say if the story were accurate, that the pilot would be hesitant to come forward due to being cast in the negative light of having used the ship in such a frivolous/non-approved/potentially dangerous way?
-
Thanks Bruce and Chris for pointing out the Kanton reference. I've read everything in the wiki and looks like the Kanton possibility remains unresolved and historical efforts ended in a somewhat unsatisfying way.
Art Rypinski did a masterful presentation on the Kanton Engine (http://tighar.org/wiki/Kanton_%28Canton%29_Island) at EPAC in 2003. He did an analysis of the helicopter traffic in the Phoenix Islands, reported on logs, tracked down personnel who were there are the same time that Bruce Yoho was, and, if I remember correctly, brought in one of the pilots to talk with us. I was somewhat distracted because I was thinking more about the report that Roger and I were to give on Bones II (http://tighar.org/wiki/Bones_II), so I didn't take careful notes, but at the end of Art's presentation I felt that he had shown beyond reasonable doubt that the engine had to have come from the wreck of the C-87 on Canton. It was like the climax of a Nero Wolfe novel where all the evidence pro and con was reviewed, given its due weight, and then fit into an overall picture that fits all of the facts.
I don't know why Art hasn't written up a report. It is a beautiful piece of detective work. When I drafted the Ameliapedia article, I was hoping that Art would fill in the missing pieces and complete the story. I'll add the last sentence from this 2007 summary to the article shortly:
"About this time, another story cropped up that seemed worth investigating. Supposedly, in 1970, the crew of a helicopter supporting USAF operations at Kanton Island, 200 miles northeast of Nikumaroro, spotted a radial aircraft engine on the western reef. Out of curiosity, the crew reportedly airlifted the engine back to Kanton where it eventually ended up in a dump. We inspected the dump but found that it had been bulldozed and filled in. Whatever was there in 1970 was now buried under several tons of coral rubble. Subsequent investigation revealed the story to be, although well intentioned, almost certainly apocryphal" (TIGHAR Tracks, July 2007). (http://tighar.org/Publications/TTracks/2007Vol_23/2302.pdf)
Could it be, let's say if the story were accurate, that the pilot would be hesitant to come forward due to being cast in the negative light of having used the ship in such a frivolous/non-approved/potentially dangerous way?
Well, yes, of course, people do hesitate to confess stupid and potentially self-destructive behavior. We didn't take a vote after Art's presentation, but I would say there wasn't one person in the room who thought the Kanton hypothesis was even remotely possible after he finished speaking. It's far simpler to think that Bruce Yoho got confused than to imagine a pilot agreeing to sling the engine all the way from Niku to Kanton. From one side of Canton to the other, no problem--not embarrassing, not dangerous, not a big deal. I seem to remember Art telling us a story about the guys hauling an old cannon from one place to another just for the heck of it until some officer decided to put an end to the shenanigans by deep-sixing the cannon altogether.
-
["About this time, another story cropped up that seemed worth investigating. Supposedly, in 1970, the crew of a helicopter supporting USAF operations at Kanton Island, 200 miles northeast of Nikumaroro, spotted a radial aircraft engine on the western reef. Out of curiosity, the crew reportedly airlifted the engine back to Kanton where it eventually ended up in a dump. We inspected the dump but found that it had been bulldozed and filled in. Whatever was there in 1970 was now buried under several tons of coral rubble. Subsequent investigation revealed the story to be, although well intentioned, almost certainly apocryphal"
Were there really helicopters operating out there over such vast expanses of open water back then?
-
Were there really helicopters operating out there over such vast expanses of open water back then?
Yes.
Niku was the furthest from Canton, if I remember correctly, and strained the helis to their limit.
That's why it is so highly improbable that anyone would sling an engine from Niku's reef to
Canton. But picking one out of the surf and hauling it to base on Canton would be a piece
of cake.
-
Were there really helicopters operating out there over such vast expanses of open water back then?
The Air Force contractors used the HH-3 Jolly Green Giant. It had a range of about 700 miles and could sling an R1340 engine that weighed 800 pounds the 200 miles from Gardner to Canton.
-
Could it be, let's say if the story were accurate, that the pilot would be hesitant to come forward due to being cast in the negative light of having used the ship in such a frivolous/non-approved/potentially dangerous way?
Don't know how much things changed from them days to the 20 years I served but I can tell you that whenever we were low on coffee when I was stationed in Panama someone always found a way to schedule a "training mission" with a stop in Bogota which included an upload of 10-20 cases of Columbian coffee. This also included anyone who put boots on ground getting harzardous duty pay because of the gorilla operations of FARC and the likes ongoing in Columbia at the time.
The pilots I know would not hesitate to come forward with these exploits after the fact and as a matter of fact have heard much worse bragged about over a few beers at the club. :o
LTM,
Don
-
A minor question does come up: how did the C-87 engine get from a mile-out ditching to the Kanton reef? Does that give us any clues about Electra parts at Niku?
that's a great question actually. looking at the image of the runway on kanton, it skirts along one side of the island. had the plane been a mile out wouldn't he be inline with the runway?? if he was and the engine did manage to wash up on the reef it would wash up on the airport side of the island.
also, I found this on pacific wrecks' site, maybe that c87 isn't the only aircraft lost on canton:
Veteran Ken Barber adds:
"I suspect that B-25 we lost December 5, 1944 is in that lagoon somewhere. As I recall he would have been headed south as I was going in the opposite direction when I saw him buzzing the strip."
-
I also found this:
Thomas F. Equels adds:
"While working for Contractor H&N on Canton Island in 1971, we saw the hull of the troop ship and nearby on the beach was the fuselage of a PBY with a radial engine close by."
so, even if this gentlemen was incorrect in his aircraft type, by his account we have a radial on the beach at canton. btw every account I read says at least two aircraft losses at canton during wwii
-
Could it be, let's say if the story were accurate, that the pilot would be hesitant to come forward due to being cast in the negative light of having used the ship in such a frivolous/non-approved/potentially dangerous way?
Don't know how much things changed from them days to the 20 years I served but I can tell you that whenever we were low on coffee when I was stationed in Panama someone always found a way to schedule a "training mission" with a stop in Bogota which included an upload of 10-20 cases of Columbian coffee. This also included anyone who put boots on ground getting harzardous duty pay because of the gorilla operations of FARC and the likes ongoing in Columbia at the time.
The pilots I know would not hesitate to come forward with these exploits after the fact and as a matter of fact have heard much worse bragged about over a few beers at the club. :o
LTM,
Don
Helicopter sling load operations are not considered as a non approved potentially dangerous activity. Most all medium and heavy lift helicopters have a cargo hook and sling load operations are taught in flight school to both pilots and crew chiefs. Some of the most extensive use of sling load operations were by the 1st Cavalry Division in Vietnam beginning in 1965. Entire artillery batteries were lifted by sling to mountain top fire bases such as LZ Dotty and LZ West. All of their supplies such as food water and ammunition were by sling load. The entire airmobile concept was based on movement by helicopter and sling loads were a major part of that.
By 1970, those pilots on Canton probably did not think twice about hooking up and pulling pitch. It was just all in a days work.
-
Suppose someone did dig up the dump on Canton and actually found one of Amelia's engines. Then the question arises, where did it come from and how did it get there? If Bruce's story is discounted and the engine he hauled is said to come from Canton, would it mean Amelia crashed on Canton when no one was looking? Or did he actually haul it from Niku or even some other Phoenix Island? In other words, it would just lead to more questions and would not prove much of anything except that Amelia crashed on or near SOME Phoenix Island. So why bother digging?
-
by that theory you might as well just say why search anywhere for anything! Anything that could be learned could be useful to fill in other parts of a theory.
One way to find the truth is to disprove as many probabilities as possible until you only have one left to prove right.
In this case, it appears that it is highly likely that the engine in question was not from an electra. Would the ability to go to Canton and locate the actual engine in question be useful to this quest? My guess is probably not. the extremely high probability that it isn't the engine we are looking for make the cost of the trip much better spent in areas that have already yield returns.
-
Thanks for the update on the Kanton engine. I too had been wondering if the logistical challenges of digging through piles of rubble might be more more rewarding than scanning the ocean floor.
To answer the question on floating... non-pressurized airplanes don't make very good boats. I assume that all of the fuel tanks were vented, and even if the aircraft floated for a short period of time I think the surf action would have won out over the airplane just drifting away.
I ran across this analysis the other day. https://www.niar.wichita.edu/CompMechPortal/MainMenuCurrentResearchProjects/AmeliaEarhartsCrashReconstruction/tabid/94/Default.aspx (https://www.niar.wichita.edu/CompMechPortal/MainMenuCurrentResearchProjects/AmeliaEarhartsCrashReconstruction/tabid/94/Default.aspx) Even though the initial assumption isn't aligned with the TIGHAR hypothesis, it is a very thourough analyisis of a possible water landing. Based on the attached article of a Lockheed water landing, they assumed that the Electra would float for 8 minutes.
LTM
-
Entire artillery batteries were lifted by sling to mountain top fire bases such as LZ Dotty and LZ West. All of their supplies such as food water and ammunition were by sling load. The entire airmobile concept was based on movement by helicopter and sling loads were a major part of that.
When stationed at Howard AFB, Panama, that is how Ft Kolby (which is attached to Howard) transported most of their equipment to the AOR during field operations training. Used to love the double takes from the uninitiated the first time they saw a jeep or artillery piece slung under a helo flying over the base. ???
LTM,
Don
-
To answer the question on floating... non-pressurized airplanes don't make very good boats. I assume that all of the fuel tanks were vented, and even if the aircraft floated for a short period of time I think the surf action would have won out over the airplane just drifting away.
I could have swore that I read somewhere (have searched and searched and can't seem to find the quote) that with the bouyancy of the extra fuel tanks, IFshe had made a sea landing that the Electra could float almost indefinately.
Now granted, if the Electra was being bashed into the reef I would think it would eventually rip open the fuselage and the tanks would float out allowing the Electra to sink. But that begs the question, if that is the case you would think that at least one of them would have washed up on Niku and been put into use by an islander.
LTM,
Don
-
My post of April 1 about why search Kanton was not meant to be written in the "wise guy" tone it sounded like. But finding Amelia's engine in the dump would open up a whole new can of worms. That is, if Bruce was really mistaken and the engine came from Kanton, then she crashed on Kanton. Did anybody look for her there? Was there people there at the time? Now it would be more important to seek out every helicopter pilot that was ever stationed there to see if any one of them ever hauled an engine from anywhere to Kanton. Didn't the pilots have to keep logs? Would they get in trouble if they flew to Niku and someone learned they logged it as hoisting practice on Kanton? In other words falsified their logbook? Of course searching out every pilot who might be alive would be just too much trouble and the guy might well be dead by now. Maybe somebody could tell me if they really did make out accurate logs back then or any logs at all? I acknowledge they wouldn't know which island they were on, anyway.
Also, I just finished reading the reconstruction of Amelia landing in the water. It seems like if they made a nice landing, they would not be injured. That makes sense. The simulation shows 30 ft. of water, I think. But why would they land in the water when according to what I have read, landing on the reef would have been "easy as pie". I admit I'm not a pilot and I know next to nothing about such choices. Somewhere on this website, I don't remember where, I thought I saw somebody state the reef was full of cracks and holes and would not have made a smooth landing.
-
Some clarification about the reconstruction of the plane landing in the water:
That reconstruction was done at the request of National Geographic Television who were doing a television show about the Earhart disappearance that was heavily biased toward the Crashed & Sank Theory. The study is largely meaningless. Its only conclusion is that a well-executed ditching in a Lockheed Electra should be survivable. Duh. With only lap restraints, no shoulder harness, you might bump your head. Duh. No conclusion was drawn about how long the plane might float except to cite the 1967 ditching where an Electra floated for eight minutes. It's not a valid analogy. NR16020 was configured very differently from the airplane that floated for eight minutes. No one knows how the fuselage tanks in NR16020 would affect how long the plane might float. Would the vents allow them to fill quickly, making the plane sink even faster than eight minutes? The tanks sat on the floor in cradles and were only attached to the airplanes structure by thin aluminum straps intended to keep the tanks in place. The straps were never intended for an airplane full of water to be suspended from the tanks as flotation devices. Would the tanks break free, pile up in the rear of the cabin and collapse? There are too many unknowns and variables for anyone to be able to say how long NR16020 might float.
-
Its only conclusion is that a well-executed ditching in a Lockheed Electra should be survivable.
So what was their point? To show that they probably ditched in sea, survived and then met a more gruesome death by drowning or getting eaten by sharks!
LTM,
Don
-
We have a photo of Bruce Yoho and two other guys with shovels standing beside a PBY engine buried in the sand on Canton.
-
A PBY engine would be a twin-row R-1830, wouldn't it? Obvious difference from a single-row R-1340, so surely it wouldn't relate to the "mystery engine" that got flown about the area by helicopter, one would hope?
Yes, it's an R-1830 and it could very well be the engine Bruce remembered many years later as being an R-1340. People remember things wrong. He wanted his recollection of an obscure event to be important. The island needed to be Gardner, not Canton, and the engine needed to be an R-1340. His memory of the event wasn't clear so it was easy for his mind to fill in the desired details.