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Author Topic: Evaluating the Niku hypothesis: conflicting strategies for testing hypotheses  (Read 70349 times)

Malcolm McKay

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Boy...it's a good thing Niku is made of Coral...if not you'd all have me buried up to my neck in the sand!!! Anyway, not implying that this particular jar is the "real" jar of Amelia's But, what I'm trying to say is that all other possibilites don't even touch this theory. Basing this on TIMELINE only!!!

Well for what it's worth, I do not think the freckle cream jar is a "smoking gun" either, simply because in the 30s and 40s, as I remember from my childhood, container designs of all types had relatively long production spans.

None of the items found are "smoking guns", what needs to be found as I have continually pointed out is some part of the Electra as that or, if the miraculous happened, and some more of that skeleton turned up or another one was located, would then enable people to have some solid ground for any arguments that one or two of the stray finds may have possible relations with Earhart. So far that wreckage and that skeletal material has eluded the search. I leave the ramifications of that last sentence to others.

In any case David Billings is off to East New Britain again soon and we wait and see what he will turn up. Nice chap David - no where near as sensitive about honest doubt expressed towards his hypothesis.   
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Malcolm McKay

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If Malcolm hadn't waffled on about the new Britain hypothesis deserves more credit, Based on a Tag that was an engine number, Which they don't even have to back the story,

 Then i find it unfair that he disqualify's every think Tighar has put forward, When he believe's the say so of some army fella

New Britain V Gardner Island

We'll see who is right or wrong in due time init  ;)

Indeed we will Richie and as far as I can see both hypotheses plus "ditched and sank" have equal odds of being correct. However I wouldn't write off a landing in the Gilberts somewhere which, the later Japanese occupation in WW2 and Gilbertese being forced labor transferred to other islands, may explain the rumours coming out of Saipan. The Pacific was a very complicated place in WW2.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2012, 04:03:37 AM by Malcolm McKay »
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Clearly not a smoking gun....howver I am curious as to what other purposes your standard run-of-the-mill freckle cream might have?

We don't know for certain that it is a freckle-cream jar.  The great problem is that all freckle-cream jars found so far are milk glass, not transparent.

If it was a freckle-cream jar, some Coastie might have taken it along to deal with a skin condition (freckles or otherwise).

If it was a freckle-cream jar, it may have been repurposed to store some other skin-care ointment or lotion.  We have become a throwaway society, but I suspect that some people in the 1930s may have had the habit of hanging on to useful containers rather than discarding them immediately (I have about two shelves of "useful containers" in my workshop--the fact that there are so many, and that they are all empty, may be evidence that they are not as "useful" as I think they are).

The jar can't tell us who owned it, how it traveled to the island, or how it ended up in fragments at the Seven Site, some of which fragments may or may not have been used as cutting tools. 

I just don't think we can put too much weight on it at present.  If someone comes up with a photo of AE holding the jar and explaining why it traveled around the world with her, that would help.   :)
LTM,

           Marty
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Mark Pearce

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Clearly not a smoking gun....however I am curious as to what other purposes your standard run-of-the-mill freckle cream might have?

We don't know for certain that it is a freckle-cream jar
If it was a freckle-cream jar, some Coastie might have taken it along to deal with a skin condition (freckles or otherwise).
 

Marty, we are definitely on the same page here.  Ordinary sunburn is the best, most logical, choice for another skin condition Coasties and other visitors to the island had to deal with while based there.  A bit of poking around on the web shows freckle cream was often marketed to both men and women as a sort of stand-in for sun tan lotion way back when.  This ‘notion’ that freckle cream is a “gender specific” item just doesn’t hold up.

Same logic applies in the case of the bottle believed to be a Campana Italian Balm container.  The company did not market or pitch it exclusively to women as claimed here-
 
http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Research/Bulletins/62_LotionBottle/62_LotionBottle.htm

“…Perhaps the most interesting finding of all is that Campana Italian Balm, and hand lotions in general at the time, were marketed solely to women.”

That’s just not the case.  Campana Italian Balm was also marketed - to both men and women- as a hand lotion and as a remedy for sunburn.  The Wiki article on C.I.Balm includes this line- [a bit of an exaggeration I know… but we see that from time to time. :)

"…Campana Balm was carried by every U.S. soldier and serviceman to prevent or heal burns.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Campana_Company
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john a delsing

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As I sit here waiting on Pat's daily report log, I've been reading up on this particular topic and found out like Monty, that some of you seem to have thrown in the towel on this project! Now, granted Malcom you are right in a sense that not all artifacts that have been found are related to Fred/Amelia. We all know that and most rocket scientists will agree with you on this matter. As most of you read this, and most of you who were in DC for the conference will agree that some of the aritifacts shown are not conclusive with Amelia/Fred. Fine example would be the broken plate  and other fine component materials. At the same time, with aritfacts found...we have to draw a timeline picture on what is to believe from the Electra and Fred/Amelia. No questions asked. The freckle cream jar in my eyes is a smoking gun. A jar made from western descent, found in the middle of the pacific on a desolate reef, among fish bones, and cosmetics, and etc. A jar that according to the Hazel Atlas Company was made before 1936, because of its clear state. Therefore, if this is the case...then anything after 1936 and is of a milk glass content is not liable. Therefore, the jar that was found has to stand as a conclusive artifact of Amelia/Fred. Therefore, all it takes is "one" artifact to make a case. Another thing to look at based on timeline is the number of women who were actually on Gardner/Niku from the time the Norwich City ran ashore till the Loran Station shut down. If we look at this account, we will notice that there weren't that many women on Niku (if any) that can actually say they had a bottle of Freckle Cream with them. At the same time, we also have to use the theory based upon timeline, that the women islanders would have never come in contact with the freckle cream because of its own culture. Finally, the Loran Station...which is located on one side of the island and away from the Seventh site most likely never housed women of the military. Now help me out on this...I too could be wrong...but in most eyes I'm probably right! Anyway, certain artifacts found have a certain priority than others, because of their timeline value!!! Another thing to look at is the recent discovery of the landing gear on the Bevington photo. Now granted, that the landing gear is based upon a picture...still makes it a liable valuable piece of the puzzle. If the landing gear continues to show readers that indeed it is that of Lockheed Electra 10E, then we have to take evidential facts, without hardcore artifacts at hand,to indicate its credibility. If such is the case, then this particular part of the timeline needs to be flagged as possible evidence. Anyway, not sure if I'm making sense to some of you, but wanted to demonstrate that there are certain little key items that do make a big difference is a search survey of Niku!!! This beings one of them. Anyway, hope that we learn more in the days ahead and we pray that they are able to find anything. Thanks!!!!
      Randy,
    You may want to think that is a picture of a landing gear, others may think it is a picture of some driftwood, and still others guess it is something else. I have not heard any respected member of TIGHAR declare it to be amelias landing gear.....
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Malcolm McKay

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Another thing to look at is the recent discovery of the landing gear on the Bevington photo. Now granted, that the landing gear is based upon a picture...still makes it a liable valuable piece of the puzzle. If the landing gear continues to show readers that indeed it is that of Lockheed Electra 10E, then we have to take evidential facts, without hardcore artifacts at hand,to indicate its credibility. If such is the case, then this particular part of the timeline needs to be flagged as possible evidence. Anyway, not sure if I'm making sense to some of you, but wanted to demonstrate that there are certain little key items that do make a big difference is a search survey of Niku!!! This beings one of them. Anyway, hope that we learn more in the days ahead and we pray that they are able to find anything. Thanks!!!!
      Randy,
    You may want to think that is a picture of a landing gear, others may think it is a picture of some driftwood, and still others guess it is something else. I have not heard any respected member of TIGHAR declare it to be amelias landing gear.....

John you are correct in that establishing a terminus post quem and a terminus ante quem for artifacts found at sites is important to establish their relevance. Obviously if the skeleton was found clutching a 1938 dime then clearly it couldn't be one of the pair but if it was found clutching a 1935 dime it could be. So it is with manufactured articles like the freckle cream jar - but we must also take into account that an article can be still in use many years after its date of manufacture so unless you have compelling and incontrovertible associations like e.g. an object buried in a sealed situation with the skeleton then associations remain at best only plausible. As for the "undercarriage" (the Bevington object) that is at best only one reconstruction of what that tiny blur on the photograph might be - enhancements etc. are all very well but they must be taken with a healthy dose of salt, especially that one.
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Thom Boughton

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Clearly not a smoking gun....howver I am curious as to what other purposes your standard run-of-the-mill freckle cream might have?

We don't know for certain that it is a freckle-cream jar.  The great problem is that all freckle-cream jars found so far are milk glass, not transparent.



Quite aware that we are not sure, didn't intend to imply otherwise. 

Perhaps I misunderstood your earlier comment.  I thought you had proposed a Coastie possibly had a jar of freckle cream for use in some other unspecified application.  I  was merely curious as to what other purpose freckle cream might have.  It just seems to be quite a specific item.

Couldn't think of anything else it might be used for....perhaps some type of cleaner maybe, but that was all I could come up with.  (However, I should think the CG would already have on-hand at a Loran installation several types of cleaners much better suited to that task.)




tb
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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I thought you had proposed a Coastie possibly had a jar of freckle cream for use in some other unspecified application.  I  was merely curious as to what other purpose freckle cream might have.  It just seems to be quite a specific item.

I'm trying to cope with both sides of the ID question.

Even if it is a freckle-cream jar, that doesn't rule out a Coastie having it to deal with freckles or some other skin condition, nor does it rule out having a jar from home that was re-purposed after the freckle-cream was all used up.

If it is not a freckle-cream jar, that might expand the range of possible Coastie uses of the original product.  And, as in the first case, the original contents may be irrelevant if someone saved the jar to use it for some other purpose after the contents were all used up.

We should probably call it the Hazel-Atlas jar rather than the freckle-cream jar.
LTM,

           Marty
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Thom Boughton

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Yes, well...at least we're sure of that much.

The base of it has all the same indications of melting from campfire though?  Can't imagine what a Coastie would be boiling in an ointment pot in a picnic fire.  Not big enough for a coffee pot or to be part of a still.


Hmmmm...


tb
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« Last Edit: July 28, 2012, 10:48:05 AM by Thom Boughton »
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richie conroy

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Yes, well...at least we're sure of that much.

The base of it has all the same indications of melting from campfire though?  Can't imagine what a Coastie would be boiling in an ointment pot in a picnic fire.  Not big enough for a coffee pot or to be part of a still.


Hmmmm...




tb

Maybe the jar said highly flammable on it  ;)
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Andrew M McKenna

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The Hazel-Atlas "ointment pot" does not have signs of melting, if memory serves.  It is pretty small, I don't see anyone trying to boil water in it.

there are other larger bottles that were in the fire, but not this one.

Andrew
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Thom Boughton

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Ahhhh!!!  I thought all of our found glass vessels had shown these indications. 




tb
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Greg Daspit

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The Freckle cream jar would be good for collecting water from leaves and root recesses because it is small and has an opening good for scooping. (Not found in fire features)

The Medium botttles good for boiling (Found in fire features)

The Benedictine bottle good for storing the boiled water for drinking (Found with bones)

Possibly a water collecting kit carried in the sextant box with the inverting eye piece to start the fires for the castaway whoever it was. The sextant box may have had a shoulder strap, to make the operation easier, based on the little clips.

Would the medium bottles and freckle cream jar fit in the sextant box?

3971R
 
« Last Edit: July 31, 2012, 09:00:35 PM by Gregory Lee Daspit »
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Malcolm McKay

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Interested to follow that, Malcolm.  Can you keep us updated or post a link to where we can follow that maybe in the 'New Britain Hypothesis'? 


Jeff you could try this site http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/117588?a=379054

My more recent contacts have been by phone.
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richie conroy

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Interested to follow that, Malcolm.  Can you keep us updated or post a link to where we can follow that maybe in the 'New Britain Hypothesis'? 


Jeff you could try this site http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/117588?a=379054

My more recent contacts have been by phone.


Glad we cleared up your preferred hypothesis  ;)
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