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Author Topic: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.  (Read 348612 times)

Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #150 on: January 07, 2012, 02:58:26 PM »


Let me see if I have this straight:
Gore Vidal's recollections of something that happened aren't to be accepted because he was 12 years old when they happened, but Emily Sikulis' recollections at age 72 or so about events that occurred 60 years before when she was 12 years old or so are acceptable.
MMMM  Interesting concept in the search for What Happened.

Read the Brines Letter.
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #151 on: January 07, 2012, 03:19:39 PM »


Chris
If you are asking for a link to The Brines Letter, I found it in Tighar Archived Documents, The Brines Letter.  I don't know how to link it here.  I found my way to the Archived Documents as a link at the end of a link to Betty's Notebook that Marty sent me in an email.  Hope that helps
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Bruce Thomas

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #152 on: January 07, 2012, 03:37:46 PM »


...  I don't know how to link it here.  ...
Harry --

Including a link in a Forum posting is really very easy to do. 
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #153 on: January 07, 2012, 03:38:50 PM »

... Oh, I see, they couldn't get a dial tone.

Things are starting to look a little more complicated this morning.  From the old Forum:

Date: Sat, 5 Feb 2005 10:12:43
From: Mike Juliano
Subject: Re: Phone service to New Guinea

"1934: AT&T inaugurates transpacific telephone service, initially between the US and Japan. Calls travel across the Pacific via radio. The initial capacity is one call at a time at a cost of $39 for the first three minutes."

LTM Mike J.

==============================================

Date: Sun, 6 Feb 2005 12:24:27
From: Skeet Gifford
Subject: Re: Phone service to New Guinea

> From Mike Juliano
>
> "The initial capacity is one call at a time at a cost of $39 for the
> first three minutes."

That's about $550 in 2004 dollars.


Setting up a radio telephone link between the U.S. and Tokyo in 1934 that could carry one call at a time at a price of $597 for three minutes (2011 dollars) does not show that such service was extended to every backwater in the Pacific by 1937. (Except for Earhart aficionados, nobody else has ever heard of Lae and even for the aficionados it wasn't until 1937 that even they heard of Lae.) The link to Tokyo is an example of a "point to point circuit." To set this up AT&T had to build very large antennas designed to send the signal in just one direction, towards Tokyo. These types of antennas are very expensive and cover a lot of real estate. They had to build several, each one designed to be operated on the different frequencies needed at different times of the day. These cover many acres and are usually called "antenna farms" for this reason. These antennas were aimed on an azimuth of 303° to hit Tokyo.  In addition they needed powerful radio transmitters, electricity generators, switching equipment to connect to the telephone system and personnel to operate and maintain the equipment. The only reason that AT&T spent the money for this set up is that they expected to make their money back by handling many, many telephone calls between these business centers.

Now what about doing the same thing to establish a "point to point circuit" to Lae that is 1500 miles farther than Tokyo and that nobody had ever heard of. How much telephone traffic could they expect from that circuit? How long would it take, if ever, to get their investment back for the antenna farm aimed on the 265° azimuth to Lae plus the other costs in setting up this circuit? And who was buying the land in Lae for the antenna farm needed at that end aimed at the AT&T station in the U.S. and paying for the equipment and personnel to build it and to operate it? It is not like setting up a ham rig, just running a wire our the window tied to a tree in your back yard. Radio amateurs get a thrill out of making long distance radio contacts, I have talked to Australia a couple of times with my radio but just A COUPLE OF TIMES. It is very rare when this can be done which is why it is a thrill, the planets have to align just right, and you can't run a telephone system like that. It was a big deal in New Guinea when they first established local radiotelephone service between only four towns and this wasn't until 1939! And this did not require the large antenna farm or powerful tranmitters.

gl
« Last Edit: January 08, 2012, 12:06:06 AM by Gary LaPook »
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #154 on: January 07, 2012, 04:09:47 PM »

The Brines letter is reproduced in the forum. The cover wording starts "At this time its provenance is unknown but it appears to be a piece of correspondence from one journalist (“Russ Brines”) to another (Richard ?). If authentic, it contains the first contemporaneous reference we’ve seen to Noonan being a heavy drinker and also provides some interesting insights into the attitude of at least some members of the press toward Earhart’s flight and disappearance."

I have read his before. I don't see anything in the forum that says this letter has been confirmed as authentic.  Its a letter or note between two correspondents, unauthenticated So does it fall into your category of undocumented supposition?  It is documented as a "reference".  Not as evidence. Why is it even in this forum?  If we are only to make suggestions with documented evidence then why reprint it here?  Is this part of your coherent account information you gathered to form your argument?

1) If it is from 3 August 1937, it is the only account we have before 1960 of any accusations about Noonan drinking too much.

2) There is nothing in the letter that disqualifies it as a legitimate source.  The Gore Vidal anecdote, by contrast, is undated and is inconsistent with other things we know about 2 July 1937.

3) It is an example of psychic research.  If a journalist in Honolulu wrote it, he did not bestir himself to travel to Lae and get real evidence about what actually happened in Lae. 

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I am basing what I have said on what I read here in this forum.  You're right about lack of evidence. But lack of evidence isn't enough to say something didn't happen. You know that.  The Brines letter is an example of that. You're making a point to me that evidence is important then you point me at this document. It's smoke with no fire. It's not evidence.

It may be evidence about Fred's habits, if it is authentic.

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I can say that Fred smuggled booze onto the plane and was drinking the whole way from Lae to Gardner. Sober when he set his clocks. In good shape early on the trip and rip snorting drunk at the end. But that's just me "suggesting".

Brines claims to have known Fred.  You can't make that claim.  He doesn't say how he knew him, or when, or where.  But there were Pan Am flights into Hawaii, I believe. 

Brines is a researchable person.  We might find out more about him that would make the letter more or less plausible.

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"Suggestions" have no evidentiary value whatsoever.  Correct.  You have stated in several replies to forum contributors that "What is freely asserted is freely denied". Not always with those words but in principle. But we are allowed to "freely assert" our suggestions.  You are allowed to "freely deny" these suggestions. and vice versa.

I have entertained your suggestion.  I have done a review of what we have in hand.  I have discussed what I have found in detail, and explained the inferences I have drawn from that material.

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Evidence can support a "suggestion" or it can destroy it. Now look at your information you say is your coherent account. The same page I provided in my link. Under the "Delayed in Lae" wiki page  http://tighar.org/wiki/Personnel_unfitness#.22Personnel_unfitness.22.  So we both used the same reference material.

There is two differences I can think of.  I'm the author of the page, and I expanded it today.

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Granted for different purposes yet I'm called a psychic.  Where on that page does it say FN was NOT drinking?  It doesn't. Just like it doesn't say he WAS drinking.  It just presents information to allow the reader to form their own opinion.

You have added no new evidence to the site, other than to register your suspicions about Fred.  That's not "evidence" of any kind.

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I am not going to further respond to your psychic comments. I read information on and off this forum and form my thoughts based on what I read and see. You may chose to disagree.  For instance the light at Nauru being 5600 feet above sea level. I provided links to information that shows Nauru Island that's essentially flat and 180 feet above sea level. I provided another link to the tallest buildings and structures in the world. I believe the 5600 foot tower is a typo. I believe the tower was shorter than 5600 feet.  No clairvoyance. Others disagree with me.

I agree that the 5600-foot light is a conundrum.  Thanks for the links.  That, too, is a researchable topic.  We may be able to find out more about the purpose and placement of that light and find its true height.  But the real height of the light won't change much in our imaginative reconstructions of what Fred could have, should have, or would have done. 

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It is their right. Just as it is your right to disagree with me.  However I suggest the legal system is made up of two sides who both believe they are right.  In this forum, who is the judge, providing fair and impartial comments without allowing personal bias and attack to creep in?

Every reader is a judge who decides what they will accept as valid evidence and trustworthy reasoning. 

If you're calling for my resignation as a member of the webteam or removal as a moderator of the Forum, please feel free to do so.  In that case, Ric Gillespie and Pat Thrasher, acting on behalf of TIGHAR's board of directors, are the judges.
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #155 on: January 07, 2012, 04:26:50 PM »

Earhart sent out several radiograms making clear to everyone the critical importance of receiving a weather forecast from Hawaii before her takeoff. Yet, the important forecast arrived after the takeoff. Why didn't they just pick up the phone?

A wildly-amateur guess: The folks preparing the forecasts didn't have the necessary equipment to take the call.
Or, if they did, they thought it wasn't necessary to spend the money to make the call.
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Alfred Hendrickson

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #156 on: January 07, 2012, 04:29:41 PM »

"If you're calling for my resignation as a member of the webteam or removal as a moderator of the Forum . . . . "

Whoa! Martin stays. And that's final. If he goes, I'm leaving, too.

 :)
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #157 on: January 07, 2012, 04:32:14 PM »


Let me see if I have this straight:

Gore Vidal's recollections of something that happened aren't to be accepted because he was 12 years old when they happened ...

That's not straight yet.

That's one ingredient suggesting why he wouldn't have been an ear-witness.

I gave other reasons why the story seems to to me to be impossible.

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, but Emily Sikulis' recollections at age 72 or so about events that occurred 60 years before when she was 12 years old or so are acceptable.

You may as well throw Betty into the mix while you're at it.

Emily and Betty were talking about what they saw with their own eyes and heard with their own ears.  I suppose someone could go cross-question Gore Vidal, if they can get access to him.

Quote
Read the Brines Letter.

Hmmmmmm.  I think we're talking about that because I did that already.  I even added the relevant passages to the wiki, to make it easier for people to find it again.
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #158 on: January 07, 2012, 04:38:03 PM »

... Now what about doing the same thing to establish a "point to point circuit" to Lae that is 1500 miles farther than Tokyo and that nobody had ever heard of. How much telephone traffic could they expect from that circuit? How long would it take, if ever, to get their investment back for the antenna farm aimed on the 265° azimuth to Lae plus the other costs in setting up this circuit? And who was buying the land in Lae for the antenna farm needed at that end aimed at the AT&T station in the U.S. and paying for the equipment and personnel to build it and to operate it? ...

Lae was a gold-mining center.  There was money in town.

Weren't you the one who gave us the stats on how busy the Lae airport was?  I've been told to take it easy, so I'll let someone else find that post in the Forum.

Apart from that, we have evidence that AE spoke by telephone with the Herald Tribune from Lae.

 "Amelia did not talk to her husband from Lae. She did telephone a travelogue story to the New York Herald Tribune [on 30 June], as she had from nearly every stop on the world flight" ("Part 2 of Ric's Review of Amelia, the movie.").

Gillespie, Forum, 4 Sep 2005: "Earhart filed her June 30th story to the Herald Tribune from Lae by telephone, so phone service from Lae WAS available.  In theory, she could have telephoned the Coast Guard's San Francisco Division in Oakland.  They were maintaining frequent radio schedules directly to Itasca.  The problem seems to have been money.  Earhart had to pay for the phone calls and, due to the delays in Java, she was running out of cash.  After calling in her June 30 story she sent a wire to Putnam saying that if the Tribune wanted more stories they would have to set up an account in Lae.  They didn't,  and her last 'Denmark's a prison...' story on July 1st was sent as a collect telegram.  Maybe it wasn't possible to make a collect international phone call."
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Bruce Thomas

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #159 on: January 07, 2012, 05:20:45 PM »

... Now what about doing the same thing to establish a "point to point circuit" to Lae that is 1500 miles farther than Tokyo and that nobody had ever heard of. How much telephone traffic could they expect from that circuit? How long would it take, if ever, to get their investment back for the antenna farm aimed on the 265° azimuth to Lae plus the other costs in setting up this circuit? And who was buying the land in Lae for the antenna farm needed at that end aimed at the AT&T station in the U.S. and paying for the equipment and personnel to build it and to operate it? ...

Lae was a gold-mining center.  There was money in town.

Weren't you the one who gave us the stats on how busy the Lae airport was?  I've been told to take it easy, so I'll let someone else find that post in the Forum.

Apart from that, we have evidence that AE spoke by telephone with the Herald Tribune from Lae.

 "Amelia did not talk to her husband from Lae. She did telephone a travelogue story to the New York Herald Tribune [on 30 June], as she had from nearly every stop on the world flight" ("Part 2 of Ric's Review of Amelia, the movie.").

Gillespie, Forum, 4 Sep 2005: "Earhart filed her June 30th story to the Herald Tribune from Lae by telephone, so phone service from Lae WAS available.  In theory, she could have telephoned the Coast Guard's San Francisco Division in Oakland.  They were maintaining frequent radio schedules directly to Itasca.  The problem seems to have been money.  Earhart had to pay for the phone calls and, due to the delays in Java, she was running out of cash.  After calling in her June 30 story she sent a wire to Putnam saying that if the Tribune wanted more stories they would have to set up an account in Lae.  They didn't,  and her last 'Denmark's a prison...' story on July 1st was sent as a collect telegram.  Maybe it wasn't possible to make a collect international phone call."

Here's a link to Gary's earlier post (December 5, 2011) about Rabaul's airport(s) and the busyness of the Lae airport.
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #160 on: January 07, 2012, 05:57:58 PM »


Ric claimed that AE did phone in a story from Lae to the New York Herald Tribune.  I haven't gone looking for his source yet.  But the quotation from Ric reminds me that Putnam was in California.  I speculate that the office of the New York Herald Tribune that took AE's press report was in New York. 

Confirmed: "Putnam had negotiated an arrangement with the Herald Tribune newspaper syndicate for Amelia to phone, or when necessary wire, the syndicate’s New York office from each destination with a travelogue about her flight and the exotic people and places she saw along the way. Earhart’s bylined story would be carried in the next morning’s paper. For the syndicate this was an opportunity to give Herald Tribune readers a first-person, serialized, near-real-time account of  what it was like to travel the world by air. For Earhart and Putnam it was a publicist’s dream come true: coverage of  Amelia’s adventures, as told by Amelia, featured in major papers around the country virtually every day for a month or more" (Finding Amelia, pp. 32-33).

Confirmed: There was international telephone service from Lae to the U.S. mainland.  But Earhart was low on cash, and it seems that she could not afford to pay for another call to the Herald Tribune after her call on 30 June.


Well, not so fast.

All of my research confirms that there was no telephone service, either by undersea cable or by radiotelephone, from Lae to the outside world in 1937. Even local radio telephone service in New Guinea did not come on line until 1939.
It appears the only evidence that telephone service was available between Lae and the U.S. is the story printed in the Herald Tribune that, it is claimed, had been telephoned by Earhart in Lae to the newspaper. Let's look at this claim.

The last chapter of Earhart's book, Last Flight, reprints the two stories printed in the Herald Tribune. The second part of the chapter, beginning with "'Denmark's a prison...'," is the newspaper story clearly sent by radiogram. We know this because we can find this radiogram at the Purdue site. This story was printed in the July 2, 1937 edition of the newspaper. The first half of the chapter beginning with "After a flight of seven hours..." was the earlier story sent to the newspaper and this story is the one claimed to have been telephoned by Earhart. We can't find a copy of a radiogram for this story but I have found a telegram from the Herald Tribune to Putnam acknowledging the receipt of this story and that first story was clearly sent by radiogram. This telegram is dated June 29 so it cannot be referring to the radiogram for the second story because the radiogram for the second story did not arrive until July 2nd. The June 29th acknowledgment telegram states;

"LAE DISPATCH ARRIVED LATE TONIGHT..."

The word "DISPATCH" obviously did not refer to a telephone call. "Dispatch" was the commonly used word in the newspaper industry to mean "a story sent in by a correspondent." The dispatch was received late at night on June 29th but early enough for this telegram to be send to Putnam, still on the 29th. So let's say it arrived around 10:00 p.m. New York time. Lae is 15 hours ahead of New York so the message was sent some time prior to 1:00 p.m. in Lae on June 30th, the day after Earhart had arrived in Lae.

I have attached a copy of this telegram. I have also attached a copy of the radiogram containing the second story showing it was received "VIA RCA" from Lae NG (RCA= Radio Corporation of America, an obvious radiogram) on July 2nd at 3:48 in the morning.

This appears to be another case (all too common in scholarship, and  well represented in writings about Earhart) of the first person writing a story getting it wrong and then everyone else just copying off of his paper without going back to the source documents themselves. It looks like decent research because they include cites to their sources, and they usually cite to the original document cited in the secondary source that they are actually using, not revealing that they are only using a secondary source. But since the secondary source got it wrong the error propagates throughout the literature, like a snowball rolling downhill. (TIGHAR is to be congratulated on its instance of references to the original documents.)

A couple of other examples of this in the Earhart saga.

From Lovell's book:
"...Her obsession with weight may have been taken to extreme length,
for according to Harry Balfour, radio operator at Lae, survival
equipment was also taken off. Balfour claimed that "she unloaded all her
surplus equipment on me including her [Very] pistol and ammunition,
books, letters and facility books"".

I don't know who placed the "Very" inside the brackets but, according to Balfour, the "pistol" that Earhart gave him was an "automatic pistol," apparently carried for personal protection, not an emergency signaling "Very Pistol." I don't know who was the person who made this change to Balfour's words and if it was done out of ignorance or if it was due to "political correctness." I am still curious who changed "automatic pistol" to "[Very] pistol", was it Ms. Lovell or her source? She footnotes this information as coming from Francis X. Holbrook, NA&SM Library, Amelia Earhart General File: F0171300. The fact "Very" was put in brackets shows that it was deliberately changed, but why and by whom? The letter from Balfour containing this quote was sent to Holbrook. Almost every book about Earhart repeats this as the basis for claiming that Earhart did not have a very pistoll with her but it does not support that claim.


It is amazing how often these kinds of things happen. Someone makes a statement that is erroneous and it gets repeated over and over until it becomes gospel, nobody goes back to check out the accuracy of the original statement. Here is another example that goes back to a seemingly unimpeachable source as it comes from Earhart herself. She wrote in her book that they flew the 163 miles from St. Louis to Dakar the next morning. The problem with this statement is that it is NOT 163 miles from St. Louis to Dakar, it is only about 101 SM. BUT, it IS 163 kilometers. Where did Earhart get this information? Did somebody tell her "kilometers" and she got confused and wrote "miles?" Or did she just ask somebody at Dakar  "hey Pierre, how far is it to St. Louis from here?" "Il est cent, soixant- trois, Madame" and Amelia just assumed he meant miles, not kilometers.

But the 163 miles number has been printed in virtually all the Earhart books, it has become gospel.

gl


« Last Edit: January 15, 2012, 01:56:23 AM by Gary LaPook »
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #161 on: January 07, 2012, 06:37:08 PM »

... Now what about doing the same thing to establish a "point to point circuit" to Lae that is 1500 miles farther than Tokyo and that nobody had ever heard of. How much telephone traffic could they expect from that circuit? How long would it take, if ever, to get their investment back for the antenna farm aimed on the 265° azimuth to Lae plus the other costs in setting up this circuit? And who was buying the land in Lae for the antenna farm needed at that end aimed at the AT&T station in the U.S. and paying for the equipment and personnel to build it and to operate it? ...

Lae was a gold-mining center.  There was money in town.

Weren't you the one who gave us the stats on how busy the Lae airport was?  I've been told to take it easy, so I'll let someone else find that post in the Forum.


Yes, and it still took until 1939 to set up radiotelephone connections between the gold fields and Lae, and these communications were much more important than an occasional call to the states and also much easier to set up. If Lae ever did set up over ocean radiotelephone equipment, it is much more likely that the antenna was aimed at Australia than at the U.S. since New Guinea was administered by Australia and the gold was NOT being mined by U.S. companies or interests.

gl
« Last Edit: January 07, 2012, 06:41:29 PM by Gary LaPook »
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JNev

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #162 on: January 07, 2012, 07:18:49 PM »

I doubt Gore Vidal was an eyewitness - I think it is more likely that he's recounting something told by his father Gene, the director of the Bureau of Air Commerce, who was close to Earhart and Putnam.  He seems to be summing up an understanding of an exchange, perhaps as told by Putnam well after the fact.  That would make it about... third hand, if so.  He WAS closer to the people involved than you or I though, wasn't he?

He was about 12 years old in the summer of 1937.

I doubt that he wrote these things down.

He was a novelist.

The story has the feel of a well-worn, oft-told anecdote. 
Quote

I find it interesting: we can see that the first part of his statement is true - the 'personnel problems' comment is accurate enough; did he then go 'over the top' for some reason about the rest of it?  You say it 'sounds' over the top; I may see it as a retelling of an understanding - and 'why would he create a fictional outcome of the report?

Because this is something people often do, for various and sundry reasons?

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What was this guy really like?


I don't know, and I don't much care.

I don't see any point in doing a psychic profile of Fred in order to determine what he would have done on the flight.  You seem to find this of profound significance.  I don't.

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How do you know they ever got that close?


Because "Radio" Direction Finding uses a phenomenon called "radio waves" to help find out what direction a transmission was made from.  There were these wonderful things called "radio waves" travelling from the aircraft to Howland for about six hours, with the signal strength of the "radio waves" growing steadily stronger, which makes the task of those trying to find the "direction" from the "radio waves" are being transmitted easier and easier.

I can, if need be, define "radio," "direction," and "finding" in simpler terms, if need be.

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He had far more experience in airplanes reliant on RDF than AE did.


His experience was not from being at the controls of the equipment, but from having messages transmitted and delivered by professional radio operators.  How much have you learned about flying from riding in the passenger cabin of modern aircraft?

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If you put my country butt in the back of NR16020 with a trans-oceanic newby like AE up front and no boat bottom under us to navigate that far and home in on a beacon, I'm going to be looking into the arrangements pretty firmly with all I do know, especially after a steller experience with Pan Am, etc.  That's a crack in the perception of FN as the perfect navigator: he wasn't that pefect - it's evident to me that he wasn't applying his full acumen to this flight. 


Amelia had flown as a passenger across the Atlantic.

She had flown the Atlantic solo.

She had flown from Hawaii to California solo.

These are things that some of us like to call "facts."  Is there any way to persuade you to use "facts" as a check on your powers of psychic investigation?

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I take it that you mean you don't believe AE could have navigated to the LOP by herself - you couldn't possibly know that.


Yes.  This was the conviction that I expressed in the English language when I wrote, "Could Amelia have done so?  My own view is 'No.'  YMMV."

By the word "view," I mean my considered opinion, after spending 12 years diligently reading the materials on the TIGHAR website.

By the expression, "YMMV," I had intended to indicate "Your mileage may vary," which is a common way of saying that I understand you may not agree with the view that I had just expressed.

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How else to dream of such goals?  How else to pursue greater understanding than to first conceive?  How else to get into so much trouble... yes, the risk of 'fantasy' is real, I agree.


I dream pretty much every night.  Most of it is dreck.

When I wake up in the morning, if something abides, I'll try to check it against reality.

Wiley imagined the oxygen mask.  He then proceded to make it work.  Reality confirmed his dream.

He imagined that he could both navigate and fly solo around the world.  He beat the record he had set with Harold Gatty doing the navigating.  Reality confirmed his dream.

Your fantasies seem not to be testable.  We can't build anything out of them, nor do they lead us to look in a different location than Gardner, nor use different techniques.

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But, fantasy?  Do I really violate the bounds of reason here?  I've proceeded more by reason and given observations than by the heart of the poet (wouldn't you know it).


See above for a few "facts" that you failed to include in your dreams, as well as some doubts about the stories you use to make the fire burn more brightly.

Marty,

Obviously we'll never agree on much of this - no sweat.  You don't care about what influence FN's behavior may have had on the flight, I do.  OK.

Maybe FN was a distant relative of yours and I've stepped on your toes... you say you don't care, but I wonder... if so, my apologies.  Or, perhaps you're really paranoid that I'm trying to rock TIGHAR's boat somehow (I don't for the life of me see how).  I'm afraid somehow you've taken my posts lately quite too personally - your tone distinctly digs.  OK.

For the record, which I trust is already clear actually, I'm not seeking to re-direct the quest at all.  I don't see that anything in my posts has undermined any of the conditions of TIGHAR's Gardner hypothesis, which in my apparent current fantasy seems to be your fear.  I've merely expanded on a line of thought about the mess led to a sad end for AE and FN to possibly understand it better - I don't find it so neatly explained so far. 

FN had a personal life and it's fair game to try to understand how that may play into this story - just as we've certainly considered much of that about AE.  By your own remarks, AE "made a hash" of things (and I can see that) - but somehow FN is allowed to sit dumbly in the back while she did so.  As long as we search - and even after NR16020 may be pulled from the depths - I will seek to understand this story as fully as I can, and I don't buy that AE's malactions were the sole reason for the flight's failing.

Now, if there's somehow been a hatchet brought to this discussion, I'd really prefer to bury it.  I think we're both actually bigger than that.  But if I'm wrong and find myself dismissed, it's been nice being with you folks - any who wish may reach me via my email.

LTM, Marty, and all - been a pleasure!
- Jeff Neville

Former Member 3074R
 
« Last Edit: October 01, 2013, 12:35:21 PM by Jeff Neville »
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #163 on: January 07, 2012, 07:21:31 PM »


Here's a link to Gary's earlier post (December 5, 2011) about Rabaul's airport(s) and the busyness of the Lae airport.


Thanks, Bruce.  I've added that to "Delayed in Lae."  Truly amazing what a gold rush can do to a town!
LTM,

           Marty
           TIGHAR #2359A
 
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JNev

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #164 on: January 07, 2012, 07:54:28 PM »

Brines - interesting fellow, thanks for that link.

Interesting update on the new / updated "Delayed in Lae" / Brines letter / 'Observations' page.  That was fast.

I get it now -

As some see it (and I can understand why), if FN is considered disabled at a crucial time in the flight, the LOP cannot have a rational basis.

The LOP must be reliable - AE said she was on it.

No, I agree, we just can't have FN being drunk.
- Jeff Neville

Former Member 3074R
 
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