Ok simplistic idea here!
You think you are on the LOP and will either fly over the Howland area or the Phoenix area. You fly North South in the hope its Howland, Baker, Jervis but its not its Gardner er al. Possible? I don't know but could it have been?
I read it before I posted my question, your Starbucks analogy is quite simple to understand in the context of you know exactly where you are starting from and going with plenty of land marks. Makes sense then that you can’t use a LOP to hit your target dead on.
Wasn’t the purpose of FN’s LOP to get as close to Howland as possible then use RDF to lock onto the Itasca and thus Howland?
So for whatever reason they miss Howland or at least can’t see it but by FN’s calculations are on his stated LOP. FN’s LOP isn’t as simple as your finding a Starbucks on a named street. His LOP says islands somewhere within a radius, lets fly northward for X miles/time, if no landfall fly southward for Y miles/time, should find Howland, Baker or Jarvis. What FN doesn’t know is he is off line (?) and thus more likely to hit the Phoenix Islands.
Since you liked the Simi Valley example I will expand upon that one.
See first diagram:https://sites.google.com/site/fredienoonan/discussions/why-it-was-not-possible-to-follow-lop-to-nikumaroro/simi.jpg?attredirects=0
In that example your friend told you to meet him at the Starbucks located on Cochran Street, east of First Avenue. Since you know that your destination is located on Cochran street you know that if you intercept Cochran street at First Avenue and follow Cochran to the east that you are assured of finding the Starbucks. Cochran Street in an LOP and the center line of the pavement and the curbs and the street signs allow you to check and make sure you are staying on course.
Let's change the scenario slightly. This time your friend just tells you that the Starbucks is located straight east from the intersection of Cochran and First. You know that there is also a Starbucks located in the town of Gardner that is also straight east of the intersection of Cochran and First in Simi Valley. You backup plan is that if you can't hook up with your buddy at that Starbucks then you will go to the one in Gardner and get a Latte.
So you start out as before and drive to the intersection of Cochran and First and then drive east on Cochran looking for the Starbucks. For some reason you fail to spot it and you then notice that Cochran is curving to the left and is no longer going straight east. You decide that you have missed the meeting place and you decide to go to your backup Starbucks in Gardner so you drive over the curb and head off across the trackless desert, still heading east. You have no guidance except your compass because the LOP you had been following (Cochran Street) has changed directions and no longer goes towards Gardner. You drive across the desert for half a mile and then, suddenly, you hit yourself on your forehead. "This is stupid" you say to yourself, "there is not a chance in the world that I will be able to maintain my course accurately enough, with just a compass, driving across this desert, having to go around rabbit holes, cactus, rocks and what not, for me to find Gardner. And, duh, I don't have much gas left, I could run out and end up dying in this desert with the vultures pecking my eyes out. I better turn around and go back and look thoroughly for that Starbucks that I missed, and besides, that's where my friend is waiting for me!"
"This is the situation at Howland after 2013 Z.
See attached revised Simi Valley diagram.
I have also attached two photos of the ONC chart for the area which is at 1,000,000 to 1 scale, one inch equals 14 NM. I have drawn in the Sun line LOP running 157° True that existed from 1745 Z to 1845 Z. I have also drawn in the LOP for 2013 Z by which time it had changed to 153°. The LOP continues to rotate counter-clockwise, pivoting on Howland and by 2240 Z (the approximate time that the plane would be arriving at Gardner) it has changed all the way to 126°.The second photo shows an aeronautical plotter laid on the chart with the beginning of the scale at Gardner and you can see by how many miles the plane would have missed Gardner while staying on the LOP. This would be just like staying on Cochran Street after it curved to the left which would also cause you to miss Gardner.
For Noonan, following his LOP to his destination IS
as simple as following the street to Starbucks. There is no radius involved, he knows he is on that line plus or minus (at most, very unlikely to be more) 7 NM both sides of the line, following the line should bring him close enough to find Howland just like driving down Cochran should get you close enough to spot that Starbucks in the back of the shopping center parking lot.
For the rest of you question see my prior post at:https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,383.msg5120.html#msg5120