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Author Topic: Re: Flight 19  (Read 21312 times)

david alan atchason

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Re: Flight 19
« on: May 16, 2011, 08:03:38 PM »

Is TIGHAR at all interested in flight 19? Does Ric subscribe to the theories of Gian Quasar in his new book about Flight 19? Just curious.
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: flight 19
« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2011, 08:36:25 PM »

Unless there is new evidence - not theories - suggesting that the loss of Flight 19 was anything other than a tragic but totally explainable training accident, the only value I can see in finding the aircraft would be to put another nail in the coffin of the myth of the Bermuda Triangle.
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Monty Fowler

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Re: flight 19
« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2011, 03:56:21 PM »

I read Quasar's book and, quite frankly, found it wayyyyyy too heavy on Gian and what appears to be his considerable ego and a bit light on what may or may not have happened to Flight 19. Not to mention that despite his supposed superior knowledge of all things aeronautical relating to Flight 19, TBM Avengers and every one of the persons involved, the book was replete with small errors. And anytime you have to publish a book by yourself to get it in print - well, to me, that's a red flag. Not a huge one, but a red flag nontheless.
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« Last Edit: June 03, 2011, 04:18:50 PM by Monty Fowler »
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Tim Gard

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Re: Flight 19
« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2014, 04:59:27 PM »

The Youtube, that explains the loss of Flight 19 as being caused by mistaken position, is no longer available otherwise I'd post the link.

Jon F Myhre, by analysis of the Flight 19 flight plan and radio logs, concluded that Lt. Taylor had misinterpreted his position as being over the Florida Keys when he was actually 300 miles to the northeast over the Abaco islands in the West Atlantic. Lt. Taylor accepted a northeasterly heading by which to return to Ft Lauderdale, but which actually took him further out into the Atlantic.

After the Challenger loss, the wreck of an Avenger was found where Jon Myhre predicted the first of the Avengers had ditched.

This has turned up instead .

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« Last Edit: September 24, 2014, 06:14:51 PM by Tim Gard »
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JNev

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Re: Re: Ask Ric
« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2014, 03:56:42 AM »

Thanks for sharing that, Tim.

I remain fascinated by the loss of Flight 19 - very tragic, sad event - still not fully resolved except I guess there's a fair understanding now of what probably went wrong.

And still no airplanes found from that flight (if I remember right, the subject of the youtube piece turned out to be another Avenger loss, not part of Flight 19).

You might enjoy taking a look at a brief string that popped up here some time back on this.  Ric makes a good point, which I appreciate.  But I have to admit, I still yearn 'to know' and wish for these birds to be found - maybe out of a sense of wanting to know what happened to those young fellows for the sake of giving rest to the thing.

It strikes me that what is thought to have happened to cause the loss of that flight is a good example of confusion made worse by time running out and what people tend to do as they first follow 'convention' (follow the leader), and then something akin to panic (not saying they did, but they were human) sets in: too late those among the flight who may have had the better notion of placement split, but too late to save themselves. 

It is interesting to hear from a contemporary in the film that Taylor had ditched twice during the war due to being lost and that his navigation habits may not have been as sharp as they should have been.  Ironically, the students in his flight may have had the better idea of where the flight was after all.  Very sad.
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Tim Gard

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Re: Re: Ask Ric
« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2014, 07:22:32 AM »

Many thanks for the link Jeff.  The radio logs serve as evidence to support mistaken position and the subsequent heading adopted, supported by a controller involved.

Subsequent to the link's date is this info. Jon's procedures seem as thorough as TIGHAR's. He narrows down the aircraft numbers to those that were and weren't ditched.

In this video, Johnny Johnson, who knew Taylor and was present before the flight departed, alludes to him having been hungover and to have asked to be excused from the flight.

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« Last Edit: September 27, 2014, 08:46:14 PM by Tim Gard »
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Monty Fowler

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Re: Re: Ask Ric
« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2014, 12:12:58 PM »

Ah yes, Flight 19. Truly the epitome of Murphy's Law - Anything that could go wrong, did go wrong.

I have read all three major books on the subject. The main issue I have with Myhre's is that, to me, he seems to take the "dots" of evidence and then connect them backwards to a common, predetermined starting point. That and the Avenger that he found had the gear down and locked. Not what you'd do for a water landing. Of course, you could argue that the flap and gear levels are adjacent to each other in the Avenger's cockpit and, at night, in a stressful situation, the pilot could have accidentally dropped both unintentionally. But there is the mitigating fact that hundreds of Avengers were lost of the east coast of Florida - it was a major training area during and after WW II, and carrier landings and takeoffs by their very nature are very dangerous from the get-go and allow no margin for error. Finding one, even where he thought one might be, let alone the other group that found five close together, is not particularly meaningful to me at all.

Quasar also seems to want to connect the dots backward, to a predetermined result. Which is also a place that is impossible to check (Okefenokee Swamp). He also seems, to me, to base many of his deductions and assertions on what people might have done or should have done.

Kusche seems to me to be the most dispassionate of the three - Flight 19 was an intriguing mystery, nothing more or less. He demolishes the idea that Taylor was drunk by talking to the lead pilot of the training flight that left right before Taylor's, a man who was within touching distance of Taylor and would certainly have noticed if he was inebriated. He saw nothing of the kind. 

Whatever their fate, they died in the service of their country. RIP.

LTM, who did a model of it,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 ECSP
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Re: Ask Ric
« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2014, 12:40:50 PM »

Nice analysis Monty. Where'd you learn how to think like that?
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Tim Gard

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Re: Re: Ask Ric
« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2014, 01:21:02 PM »

Ah yes, Flight 19. Truly the epitome of Murphy's Law - Anything that could go wrong, did go wrong.

I have read all three major books on the subject. The main issue I have with Myhre's is that, to me, he seems to take the "dots" of evidence and then connect them backwards to a common, predetermined starting point.


What do you make of Jon's claim (5:25) that the type he located was a TBM-1C with an L209 marking on the outer left wing and that the other 2, of only 3, were not associated with accidents?
 
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« Last Edit: September 27, 2014, 08:46:45 PM by Tim Gard »
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Tim Gard

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Re: Re: Ask Ric
« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2014, 01:28:03 PM »


Kusche seems to me to be the most dispassionate of the three - Flight 19 was an intriguing mystery, nothing more or less. He demolishes the idea that Taylor was drunk by talking to the lead pilot of the training flight that left right before Taylor's, a man who was within touching distance of Taylor and would certainly have noticed if he was inebriated. He saw nothing of the kind. 

What do you make of the hangover and permission to step down claim by the eyewitness (23:30)?
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Re: Ask Ric
« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2014, 01:35:21 PM »

I think we need a Flight 19 thread.
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JNev

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Re: Re: Ask Ric
« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2014, 01:37:45 PM »

I think we need a Flight 19 thread.

Shall I meld the F19-relevent posts here into the existing F19 thread, or move them to start anew?
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Re: Ask Ric
« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2014, 02:02:48 PM »

No need to reinvent this wheel. Let's meld 'em.
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Monty Fowler

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Re: Re: Ask Ric
« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2014, 02:48:00 PM »

Nice analysis Monty. Where'd you learn how to think like that?

I will have you know that I received my degree from a most distinguished institution ... but I've misplaced the matchbook that had their name on it. Sorry.

LTM,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 ECSP

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« Last Edit: September 25, 2014, 03:00:47 PM by Monty Fowler »
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Monty Fowler

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Re: Re: Ask Ric
« Reply #14 on: September 25, 2014, 03:03:29 PM »

Tim - I'm more of a pencil and paper guy. Might I suggest you read all three books, cover to cover? Then we can talk some more, since we'll have a common data set to debate.

LTM, who believes everything he sees on the internet *cough*,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 ECSP

 
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