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Author Topic: Evaluating the Niku Hypothesis (standards of evidence)  (Read 5791 times)

Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Evaluating the Niku Hypothesis (standards of evidence)
« on: February 12, 2011, 06:04:13 AM »

But, as we all know, it had been swept away by that time.

Claiming that we all "know" this may be a little strong.

However, I should think that one must at some point decide which items they believe completely...and which they do not. For if you don't believe in anything, then you might as well stay home and look for the Electra at Disneyworld.  The art is to not over-step in what you believe unquestionably.

I am very interested in the conditions under which assent should be given, which, in turn, helps to characterize the conditions under which assent should be withheld.  I've written one book and co-authored another in the field of epistemology, the branch of philosophy that deals with how we know what we know.

Although I believe that the Niku hypothesis is probably true, which, in turn, logically entails the corollary belief that the airplane has to have gone into deep water at some point, I don't think we have enough evidence in hand to make the claim that we know this to be the case.  Tom King has recently updated his summary of the evidence for the Niku hypothesis. 

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What is my personal baseline at present?  After spending a great amount of time thinking it was all just fanciful at best, the more I examine the bits and pieces of other supporting evidence (period navigational charts, post-loss transmissions, island-found items, etc)....I have crossed the line, fell off the fence, however you wish to say it.  I personally believe the Niku Theory in one form or other to be almost necessarily correct. And as you've said....in for a penny in for a pound.  Once you subscribe to that general theory, there is no getting away from the swept away phase which would come at some later point. 

Agreed.  One belief entails the other (that is what I mean by saying that the "swept away" hypothesis is a corollary of the Niku hypothesis).  But, as far as I can tell, we are still dealing with belief rather than knowledge.  I think the Niku Hypothesis is very credible and worth further exploration, but I think it is not right to say that we know with certainty that it is true.
LTM,

           Marty
           TIGHAR #2359A
 
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Re: Evaluating the Niku Hypothesis (standards of evidence)
« Reply #1 on: February 12, 2011, 01:32:05 PM »

I think "NIKU is right" does not mean under all circumstances "swept away" is right. AE and FN could have made it near Niku, were forced down offshore and managed to reach the beach. That's possible too. But it would mean that the postloss transmissions didn't come from the plane and so didn't come from AE.

Oskar
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: Evaluating the Niku Hypothesis (standards of evidence)
« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2011, 02:20:10 PM »

I think "NIKU is right" does not mean under all circumstances "swept away" is right. AE and FN could have made it near Niku, were forced down offshore and managed to reach the beach. That's possible too. But it would mean that the postloss transmissions didn't come from the plane and so didn't come from AE.

OK, I concede that "swept away" was a poor choice for the name of the corollary.

But your scenario still leaves the plane "lost in the deep," which is in agreement with "swept away."

I will revise my terminology in the future, FWIW.   :)

If AE and FN arrived at Niku (by landing or swimming from a nearby splashdown),
and if the reef and land have been thoroughly searched by residents, naval forces, random visitors, and TIGHAR,
then the plane must now be in deep water.
LTM,

           Marty
           TIGHAR #2359A
 
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