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Author Topic: solution to mystery only requires correcting radio log errors  (Read 16523 times)

frank rockenstein

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Re: solution to mystery only requires correcting radio log errors
« Reply #15 on: January 17, 2016, 08:25:05 AM »

The following analysis of final 7:18GMT message received at Lae from AE in which she relays a position
fix and altitude is presented here in support of my theory that FN made an 8 minute error in setting his clock
and that this error resulted in an overflight of Howland by 120 nm.

The error put his clock 8 minutes in advance of the actual GMT time which caused his navigational results
to place him farther back in his route than he actually was.

Inputting the coordinates 4.33S 159.7E into the NOAA sunrise/sunset calculator will yield a sunset time
at that date and  position of 7:21 UTC.

Clearly this would mean that the sunset observation occurred on FN's clock at least 3 minutes after
the message was received at Lae. And of course  some period of time would have elapsed during
which FN was making the calculation of the position,passing the information to AE and the time involved
in the transmission before the time was logged. If we allot 5 minutes here the we have our 8 minute
clock error and in the right direction.

In his analysis I have assumed that the fix was based on the Sunset LOP intersecting with the FN's
projected true course and that sunset was observed using the artificial horizon of his sextant.
A safe assumption as if the earth horizon was used the sunset observation would have been
affected by the altitude and at 8000 feet would have occurred 6.5 minutes later and would have been
observed at 7:27. This is automatically corrected for by the sextant. In addition at 8000 feet the
earth's horizon could have been obscured by cloud cover.
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frank rockenstein

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Re: solution to mystery only requires correcting radio log errors
« Reply #16 on: January 17, 2016, 08:29:54 AM »

This post is the conclusion of my previous post and did not get posted.

And so with this we need not be concerned with which TZ the Itasca was on because we know that
AE believed that she had actually arrived at Howland. And with an 8 minute clock error we
now know where she actually was -120 nm east of the island some where on the 157/337 line
searching for an island that she had flown right by and right on time.

In a following post, I will discuss he and possibly resolve the timezone issue. 
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Neff Jacobs

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Re: solution to mystery only requires correcting radio log errors
« Reply #17 on: January 17, 2016, 01:38:39 PM »

Frank,
While there is an emergency procedure for taking a sunrise LOP you may want to consider that if the LOP is taken in the usual manner by octagant,  navigators sunrise occurs when the sun is 6 degrees above the horizon.  Because of the high refraction the tables cover no point lower.
Neff
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: solution to mystery only requires correcting radio log errors
« Reply #18 on: January 17, 2016, 03:18:51 PM »

The following analysis of final 7:18GMT message received at Lae from AE in which she relays a position fix and altitude is presented here in support of my theory that FN made an 8 minute error in setting his clockand that this error resulted in an overflight of Howland by 120 nm.

The error put his clock 8 minutes in advance of the actual GMT time which caused his navigational results to place him farther back in his route than he actually was.

There are many aspects of the Earhart disappearance that force us to analyze, reason, and speculate - but the accuracy of Noonan's "clock" (chronometer) is not one of them. 

From Chater
"At 10.20 p.m. [July 1] a message was heard from all Australian coastal stations requesting all shipping to keep silence for a period of ten minutes during the transmission of the Adelaide time signal which was being awaited by Miss Earhart. Complete silence prevailed during this period and a perfect time signal was received by Captain Noonan, and the machine chronometer was found to be three seconds slow.

On July 2nd a further time signal was received from Saigon at 8 a.m. when the chronometer checked the same as the previous night."

 
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frank rockenstein

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Re: solution to mystery only requires correcting radio log errors
« Reply #19 on: January 17, 2016, 08:05:50 PM »

Here is a little story about recreating history -a little off subject but interesting I hope.
I myself am not a navigator but I've got a little in my blood. My first cousin was a navigator
stationed in England during WWII flying B17s.

He recounted a number a number of stories about his experiences during
bombing raids into Germany.

In one he talked about one the planes peeling out of the formation and heading to Switzerland.
In another he recounted that after they returned from one flight, the flight commander chewed his
pilot's butt for not flying close enough in formation.

Then he gave me the flight plan and log for a flight to bomb the Reichstag in Berlin.

I fired up googleearth and plotted the flight plan and then the log.
And I discovered that what had happened was that the plane that peeled off
was in fact turning onto the IP ( initial point at the beginning of the bomb run)
and his plane missed the turn and flew about 20 miles past the bomb run.
In his log he noted that there were about 400 enemy fighters up ahead.
Those planes were actually the b17 formation that he should have been in.
I also managed to find what his plane had bombed. It was a massive
concrete gun tower. Reportedly the were no injuries because the tower
was unmanned as there was no raid in that sector.

What to take from this? That those who live history don't always see it correctly.
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frank rockenstein

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Re: solution to mystery only requires correcting radio log errors
« Reply #20 on: January 18, 2016, 10:29:41 PM »

Thought I sent a post on this subject but it disappeared so I'll try again.

I am including a message from Itasca to all ships referencing AE 8:43/45 last message received
by Itasca.

The text within this message contains the GCT  time of that message and shows that contrary
to Tighar gospel that the time zone was not on a half hour offset-2045 GMT would be a 12 hour offset.

The full hour offset makes sense as it would put the ship's clock in sync with AE's clock to facilitate
their communication schedule. However the 12 hour offset would move the sunrise time back
to 5:45 ship time. Not what one would desire with AE's expected arrival around sunrise.
Moving the clock ahead a half hour would give an 11 hour offset and a sunrise of 6:45 sunrise -
more time to prepare an a few exra zzz's.

Thinking that moving the clock ahead a half hour would change the TZ from 11.5 to 12 is
an easy mistake to make however just the opposite is true.

As for the clock change not being entered into the bridge log, the order probably did not come
thru normal channels and procedures. It was probably ordered by Adm Black upon whose
shoulders rested the responsibility for the operation and success of the mission.

And an 11 hour offset fits perfectly with the theory I have proposed in my previous posts.

from: ITASCA
Action: ALL SHIPS
Action2: ALL STATIONS
Precedence Datel 07/02/37 Referback 60021401 (193707030031COMHAWSEC) Referforw 60021402 (193707030132ITASCA)
Classific Toffl 1333 Referback1 Referforw1
Style Referback2 Referforw2
Group 0 Datez 07/03/37 Referback3 Referforw3
Officeno IT Toffz 0103 Referback4 Referforw4
Text: AMELIA EARHART PLANE ENROUTE HOWLAND ISLAND FROM LAE NEW GUINEA UNREPORTED SINCE 2045 GCT JULY 2 AND APPARENTLY DOWN AT SEA
POSITION UNKNOWN PERIOD ITASCA SEARCHING PROBABLE NORTHWEST SECTOR OFF HOWLAND ISLAND PERIOD REQUEST SHIPS AND STATIONS LISTEN
ON 500 KCS FOR ANY SIGNALS FROM PLANE COMMANDING OFFICER U S COAST GUARD CUTTER ITASCA
________________________
Dztzf 193707030103ITASCA
Source: THOMPSON Copyno: 0 Record No: 300
Comment1 SENT CQ (ALL SHIPS); ACKNOWLEDGED 1336 BY WHEK, 1345 BY KEXX
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: solution to mystery only requires correcting radio log errors
« Reply #21 on: January 19, 2016, 08:21:34 AM »

I am including a message from Itasca to all ships referencing AE 8:43/45 last message received
by Itasca.

The message does not specifically mention the last message received by Itasca but it seems safe to assume that "unreported since 2045 GCT July 2" refers to the Itasca radio log entry for 0843. 

The text within this message contains the GCT  time of that message and shows that contrary
to Tighar gospel that the time zone was not on a half hour offset-2045 GMT would be a 12 hour offset.

A 12 hour offset would be on the other side of the International Dateline and make the date July 3, not July 2.  The conversion of Itasca local time to GCT in the message is clearly an error.

The full hour offset makes sense as it would put the ship's clock in sync with AE's clock to facilitate
their communication schedule. However the 12 hour offset would move the sunrise time back
to 5:45 ship time. Not what one would desire with AE's expected arrival around sunrise.
Moving the clock ahead a half hour would give an 11 hour offset and a sunrise of 6:45 sunrise -
more time to prepare an a few exra zzz's.

You don't like the 12 hour offset in the message so you've decided that the ship's clocks were changed to an 11 hour offset.

Thinking that moving the clock ahead a half hour would change the TZ from 11.5 to 12 is
an easy mistake to make however just the opposite is true.

So you agree that the GCT time in the "all ships, all stations" message was incorrectly calculated.

As for the clock change not being entered into the bridge log, the order probably did not come
thru normal channels and procedures. It was probably ordered by Adm Black upon whose
shoulders rested the responsibility for the operation and success of the mission.

There was no "Adm. Black" aboard Itasca.  Richard Black was the civilian Dept. of Interior representative in charge of the mission to support the Earhart flight.  He served in the Navy during WWII and Korea and eventually rose to the rank of Rear Admiral.  The Commanding Officer of USCG Itasca was Commander Warner Thompson.  Black had no authority over the operation of the vessel.

And an 11 hour offset fits perfectly with the theory I have proposed in my previous posts.

Which is why you offer the above speculation but you have not presented any real evidence to support your theory.  The available primary source documentation (Chater's letter and the Itasca logs) indicate that Noonan's chronometer was set correctly and Itasca was using an 11.5 hour offset from GMT.

« Last Edit: January 19, 2016, 04:01:27 PM by Ric Gillespie »
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frank rockenstein

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Re: solution to mystery only requires correcting radio log errors
« Reply #22 on: January 19, 2016, 01:20:04 PM »

Ric,

As I said in my email to you - I don't believe what I have to offer will be conclusive but
strongly supportive of my theory. By the nature of the subject matter, there will always
be ambiguity, opportunity for "second guessing" and nit picking - not that that makes
my theory correct.

You say that I rejected the 12 hour offset as correct because it did not fit my theory and
of course you are correct. But in order to reject it I had to find a plausible explanation
as to why it was not correct. And I believe I did.

The TZ is a critical part of my theory but it does no stand alone. Taken together with the 7:18 message
and the flight profile, a clear picture emerges.

Of course one could argue that in the 7:18 message that the Lae clock could have been incorrect.

So it's like a circumstantial evidence criminal case- only when all the parts are taken together can
reasonable doubt can be dispelled and discrepancies resolved.

I don't want this to turn into a personal battle of egos so I've tried not to be too snarky
lest I get locked out again.

You  have a vast knowledge of this subject and I am a relative novice. So you will always
be able to find some minor error in my postings.

But for most of my life I have been involved in problem solving of a highly technical nature as an
aircraft radio repairman on b-47's, a data processing customer engineer, a network systems
analyst, and communications computer programmer. In the fields of my endeavors, success
or failure was easy to measure - it either worked or it did not. and you did not get to go home
until it did.

And one thing I have learned in the "school of hard knocks" is that when faced with an intractable
problem that everything goes back on the table and there are no "settled issues".

Here, I began with an overview of the problem and immediately formed and opinion of where
the most likely source of the problem was.

As the leg between Lae and Howland was more a feat of navigation rather than of pilotage that
this was the most likely source of the problem. Not that the navigational calculations were
any more complex or different than any other navigational task but rather that island was so small that
the margins for error were very slim. The major portion of this flight would be in darkness with no opportunity
for checking the navigational results against landmarks. FN's work had to be flawless and he knew it.
And then the message from AE "we should be on you" indicating that from her point of view that the flight had
succeeded in terms of the celestial navigation and sun LOP - she and FN thought they were at Howland.
But obviously they were not.

And so with equipment failure ruled out, I turned to the navigation. Where could FN have gone wrong.
I suspected that a clock error could certainly have been the culprit. It is a problem of the most insidious
type. because it would only manifest itself at the first navigational opportunity as either an increase or
decrease in expected progress. This could easily be attributed to either a stronger expected headwind
or tail wind.

The progress of the remainder of the flight would seem perfectly normal until the end when your
destination was nowhere in sight.

And so I began searching for the terms clock and Earhart and found the message from AE at Lae
to New York that FN was concerned about his clock as he had not been able to set it at Darwin.

And then I knew that there was a strong possibility that he had set his own clock using his sextant.
He should have been able to do so to a precision of well under a minute. He was very experienced
translating time into location but probably not nearly so in going in the other direction.

And so I went through the calculations involved looking for a place where an error could have occurred.
And found it in the conversion from 14.2 hours to 14 hours 20 minutes instead of 14 hours 12 minutes.

I also found a reference to that type of error in a marine navigational manual. It stated that this type
of conversion error simple as it may seem was all to often made and with disastrous results.

And so following that scent is how I got to where I am now.

As to the Chater 3 second off clock, I was aware of that and came up with an possible explanation for that.

FN was using a pocket chronometer which unlike a ship clock was not temperature controlled and shock mounted and therefore likely to gain or lose time easily. FN would have been aware of the problem hence his concern about it. So if in fact he said it was only three seconds off he must have reset it himself at Howland.
An then knowing that his average error in celestial navigation was on around ten miles, which would resolve to
40 seconds clock time, he was confidant of a even higher precision from the ground. In short he was concerned
with seconds because every 4 seconds would add 1 nm to his average error and depending on
weather conditions at Howland , it could be decisive. Now my tenuous explanation would be that what he meant was that his minute time was only three seconds off the time hack.  In the days before digital time on my  cable
box, I would often break out my short wave to get the time hack from WWV. Most of the time part of the broadcast was unintelligible but I could easily make out the minute tone. Not great but the best I can come up with.

As for the dateline issue, it's not something that I have delved into so I'll check it out.

regards - frank






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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: solution to mystery only requires correcting radio log errors
« Reply #23 on: January 19, 2016, 02:51:28 PM »

As for the dateline issue, it's not something that I have delved into so I'll check it out.

Four years ago, for a little while, I cared about timezone issues.

I laboriously put together a table to help me wade through the data.

Then Ric showed me his cheatsheet.

For what it's worth, my table and his are in "Timezones," along with some other observations.

The timezone issues crop up in two areas:
Ric has said this once or twice, but to me it is a decisive point: Randy Jacobson examined the logs of the Itasca and kept track of when they changed timezones.  This is not something left up to chance.  It's kind of a Big [Friendly] Deal because it affects so many parts of the ship's life--navigation, communications, daily order.  I've never been part of a ship's crew, but I imagine that it was a pretty solemn responsibility to watch the clock.  "Does anyone know what time it is? Does anyone really care?"  Yes.  [Insert various and sundry naval expletives], yes!
LTM,

           Marty
           TIGHAR #2359A
 
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: solution to mystery only requires correcting radio log errors
« Reply #24 on: January 19, 2016, 03:59:29 PM »

Then Ric showed me his cheatsheet.

I should apply for Social Security disability.  I am mathematically disabled.  I put together the attached time zone cheat sheet years ago to try to stay out of trouble with time zones.  I still use it frequently.

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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: solution to mystery only requires correcting radio log errors
« Reply #25 on: January 19, 2016, 05:16:34 PM »

I should apply for Social Security disability.  I am mathematically disabled.  I put together the attached time zone cheat sheet years ago to try to stay out of trouble with time zones.  I still use it frequently.

I retyped that so that I could get a clearer printout.  8) 

Then I started playing with color coding.

See attached.
LTM,

           Marty
           TIGHAR #2359A
 
« Last Edit: January 19, 2016, 06:11:22 PM by Martin X. Moleski, SJ »
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: solution to mystery only requires correcting radio log errors
« Reply #26 on: January 19, 2016, 05:19:44 PM »

I retyped that so that I could get a clearer printout.  8)

Better.  Thanks.
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: solution to mystery only requires correcting radio log errors
« Reply #27 on: January 19, 2016, 05:52:46 PM »

This is an interesting discussion because it's fundamentally about methodology.  Nothing is more important in historical investigation. 

As I said in my email to you - I don't believe what I have to offer will be conclusive but
strongly supportive of my theory. By the nature of the subject matter, there will always
be ambiguity, opportunity for "second guessing" and nit picking - not that that makes
my theory correct.

The great paradox of historiography (the study of the methodology of historians in developing history as an academic discipline) is that we can never know for certain what happened in the past. It's like trying to walk toward a wall until your nose touches it by halving the distance each time you take a step. You can get close but you'll never get there.  Our goal is to get as close as we can even though we know that absolute certainty is impossible. Getting the methodology right is how we insure that we're actually getting closer to the "wall" - the unattainable truth.  Identifying errors in methodology is not second guessing or nitpicking.

You say that I rejected the 12 hour offset as correct because it did not fit my theory and
of course you are correct. But in order to reject it I had to find a plausible explanation
as to why it was not correct. And I believe I did.

Methodology alert.  You have it backward.  The primary source data come first. If there's an unanswered question you propose a theory.  You then develop hypotheses you can test to see if your theory is supported.  You seem to start with a theory and when the data do not support it you simply change the data.

The TZ is a critical part of my theory but it does not stand alone. Taken together with the 7:18 message and the flight profile, a clear picture emerges.

The picture is not clear to me. 

Of course one could argue that in the 7:18 message that the Lae clock could have been incorrect.

I see nothing wrong with the 7:18 message.  You have said, "In this analysis I have assumed that the fix was based on the Sunset LOP intersecting with the FN'sprojected true course and that sunset was observed using the artificial horizon of his sextant." but there is no basis for that assumption. 

So it's like a circumstantial evidence criminal case- only when all the parts are taken together can
reasonable doubt can be dispelled and discrepancies resolved.

But you're inventing circumstances and treating them as evidence.  With that methodology you can support any theory you can dream up.

I don't want this to turn into a personal battle of egos so I've tried not to be too snarky
lest I get locked out again.

I too am trying my best not to be snarky but let's be honest. Earhart theories are always about ego. We all want to think we're smarter than the other guy.  "I can figure this out and you can't."  That's why we insist on real evidence rather than opinion.  Convince me with facts, not supposition.

You  have a vast knowledge of this subject and I am a relative novice. So you will always
be able to find some minor error in my postings.

Invalid methodology is not a minor error.

And one thing I have learned in the "school of hard knocks" is that when faced with an intractable
problem that everything goes back on the table and there are no "settled issues".

Amen.

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frank rockenstein

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Re: solution to mystery only requires correcting radio log errors
« Reply #28 on: May 03, 2016, 04:33:53 PM »

In going back over all the topic messages, I noticed that Ric stated that he did not see anything
wrong with the 7:18 position report.

I did not elaborate as it seemed obvious to me what the problem is. So here it is.

If I type that position into the NOAA sunrise/sunset calculator for that date, it returns a sunset time of 7:21
which means that FN's clock must have been 7:21  when he made the observation. Incidentally, this position GMT
is also on the true course that AE would  Have been flying - 78 or 79 degrees. Clearly this position
was derived by the intersection of the sunset lop and the assumed true course.

Now if his clock was at 7:21 how could the position have been reported at 7:18 on Lae's clock.
This implys that FN's clock was at least three minutes ahead of the Lae clock. Adding five minute
for the calculation and transmission of the position and you have an eight minute clock error.
On FN's clock the time would have been 7:26 when the position was reported at 7:18 GMT (Lae clock).

With the eight minute clock error, their position would have appeared to be 120 nm behind where they expected
to be by that time. This would put them about an hour behind schedule. As their original plan called for and
expected arrival at shortly after sunrise this means that they would  now arrive an hour after sunrise.
So if that is correct and they arrived at 7:45 (ship time) then sunrise must have occurred at 6:45 ship time.
This would imply an 11 hour offset from the 17:45 GMTsunrise time which supports my assertion that the ship
(at least the radio room) had been moved to an 11 hour offset from gmt and not 11.5
as has been  commonly believed.

It also fits perfectly with the flight profile which I have previously discussed.

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frank rockenstein

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Re: solution to mystery only requires correcting radio log errors
« Reply #29 on: May 03, 2016, 04:46:12 PM »

                      ______________________

Well I guess it's time for closing arguments on this thread.

First I've got to eat a little crow on the half hour timezones.

Plotted out Itasca's course and speed on the trip to Howland and determined that
the clock was set back a half hour every two days at about 7.5 degree of longitude
change which would be consistent with keeping the clock in sync with solar noon.
Guess that lengthening the work day a half hour at at time every two days was more
acceptable than an hour every four days.

Also must take issue with the belief that AE had left Lae loaded 1100 gallons of fuel.
It is obvious that the load was no more than 900 gallons. This becomes obvious when
Kelly Johnsons telegram to AE detailing the fuel requirements and flight parameters
is considered.

In it he sates that the 18 hour flight from Oakland to Honolulu should require about 800 gallons
and further that 900 should provide an excess range of 40 percent. Clearly that is an error
as 900 gallons would provide about 14 percent excess range not forty.  That would be and
extra 350 miles or 2.5 hours flight time  38 gal/hr.

Now as the Lae to Honolulu trip is roughly the same distance, she would have been able to use
that same plan for her trip from Lae to Howland.

Additional support comes from the message to the Secretary of the Treasury (Morganthau)
later in the day recapping the events and messages following AE's disappearance.

In it, the message which was logged at 7:45 in which it was reported AE said that she "was low on fuel"
is expanded to "a half hour of fuel left". Clearly the "low on fuel entry was a condensed and interpreted
version by the radio operator. She was a little off on her estimate as she was still aloft at 8:43 - the
time of her last message.

One thing I have learned is that as counter intuitive it may seem is that an aircraft's range is little affected by wind either for or aft. what is affected is ground speed. A headwind provides free airspeed and lift and allows thrust to be reduced so mpg remains the same. This fact also argues against needing to carry excess reserve fuel for wind contingency.

Here we may also consider the fuel situation as support for the proposition that the loss of an hour if
caused by a headwind should have left her with 2 hours of fuel not 1 hour and therefore we can
reject the headwind  theory in favor of the clock error. The missing fuel was spent in traveling the
133 sm beyond Howland.

Also the comment on her last message states that her voice sounded strained and anxious.
She was obviously under severe stress knowing that the end had come.

So there we have it , she had been aloft for about 20 hours at the time of her last message- a half
hour short of the two and a half hours predicted by Johnson's detailed fuel usage plan of 900 gallons.

And now I will turn to the issue of which timezone the Itasca was on.

The most compelling proof can be found in the position report sent to Lae at 7:18 Gmt.
I have previously used the timing of this message to show a clock error existed.
It can also be used to resolve the timezone issue thusly.
The position reported was 881sm from Lae in 7.3 hours flight time which yields a ground speed of 121 smph.
This should have been slightly less than the average speed of 142 for the entire trip. As I am not a pilot
I have used the numbers found in another post on the subject but if someone has an electra 10e in their
fsx simulator this portion of the flight can be modeled. If correct that means that AE is about one hour behind
schedule.

So if the remainder of the trip goes as planed she should arrive at where she believes Howland to be
one hour after sunrise. Now we know that that time was reported as 7:45 ship time and therefore the sunrise
must have occurred at 6:45 which would have been 17:45 GMT. This means that the ship was on an 11 hour offset not
 11.5.

Additionally Jacobson himself questioned the 10.5 timezone of Howland Island after noting that the shore party returned to the ship before the message to return was sent.

The loss of an hour is consistent with an 8 minute or 133sm clock error.

One could argue that the loss of an hour could be caused by a 33mph headwind but the result would still be the same.
They would believe that they were running an hour behind.

I would ask however what is the likely hood that a 30 mph wind would last for seven hours and then
mysteriously disappear immediately upon an observation involving time and return to the expected 12mph
for the next  12 hours. This should have aroused FN's suspicion that his clock was off and he should
have asked AE if her throttle setting was as planned or if she had to reduce power to maintain her altitude
or prevent gaining altitude. If she did not reduce power this would have confirmed the clock error.

The last issue I want to address and it may reveal the actual root cause which eventually led
to FN having to set his clock. It seems that from the time they left Darwin there was no two way
communication with the plane. More importantly between Lae and Howland AE made no
attempt to establish such communication.  Her first report of receiving any signal until she arrived
at where she believed Howland to be. What was going on ?

Well I believe that her dorsal antenna had been disconnected at Darwin in an attempt to repair her
DF. It is possible that during the repair the DF antenna was connected to the dorsal antenna input in
an attempt isolate a suspected bad selector switch. And by pure luck they received a signal from
a source located outside the null zone of the loop antenna and thought that they  had found the problem.
However they had no replacement switch so AE had to decide between the DF and the receiver antenna.
She chose the DF thinking she could still communicate at close range using the DF antenna .
This would have been a good decision excepting the fact that when the switch was in the receive position
the DF circuitry and rotation was disabled by design.

Now she had neither and we are left with the question as to whether the time hack station was
really down for maintenance or they were unable to receive it due to the antenna situation.

So why could she receive signals when she got to where she believed  Howland Island was?
Because that is where she turned the plane either north
or south onto the sunrise LOP and the antenna was reoriented into a position where the plane of the DF loop
was pointed towards the Itasca and not the null direction.

So this is the end. I have proven at least to myself that my theory is correct and have overcome
the obstacles presented by 79 years of erroneous information in doing so.

I would also point out that my theory could never have been possible without the the
work of many people at tighar who amassed this trove of information on the subject
and also to Ric for holding my feet to the fire and required a lot more rigorous thinking
and searching than I ever expected.

Over and Out ...

Frank r.
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