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Author Topic: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart  (Read 31409 times)

JNev

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Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
« Reply #30 on: April 14, 2015, 02:52:29 PM »

...if only they had a rotten old seat cushion floating around...  :P

Well, that triple 7 is actually thought to be in the Indian Ocean... but point well taken (if it's in an ocean at all, but that's a Saipan kind of notion all its own I suppose...).

Hats off to 25 or so years of determined effort, and yes it is an intriguing 'picture'; that said, 25 years is a very long time with no proof yet, and the picture can actually mean things other than what we hope for.  It remains a tough search, IMO.
- Jeff Neville

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Bob Smith

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Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
« Reply #31 on: April 14, 2015, 03:17:50 PM »

Well there is definately another group "in search of"!! And its certainly interesting that it's a different theory. And they do have better looking coffee mugs and the T-shirts are cheaper... but what does all the nonsense and buddy-buddy stuff about scotland and best whiskey have to do with being a better  and more knowledgeable theory, because, with all due respect to the people in that organization ( who are " seeking a non-profit status") I wouldn't give a bucket of warm spit to anyone who doesn't show me some real credentials and findings to remotely suggest they are looking in the right place!!! These people I'm sure sound like they are all very nice people, but interest in Amelia and Fred since childhood ain't gonna cut it. I was interested in AE and FN in the 40's when I was just a tad, but That didn't make me an authority. Let's say I am very, very interested, as are many others in the TIGHAR and other groups and am willing to give anybody a chance to test their theory. But if they find something or provide some plausible hypothesis with their own money first, then my ears will perk up!
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JNev

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Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
« Reply #32 on: April 14, 2015, 11:02:26 PM »

When I took macroeconomics in university we were told of an experiment whereby three control groups were studied to see if any particular skill set could measure more strongly as to stock buying and selling over a period of weeks.  There were three team members in each of three groups:

The three advanced studies students outperformed the three professional brokers;

The three novice subjects who were simply given daily trading sheets and allowed to make random buy-sell choices marginally outperformed both the students and pros - and each of the novices were millionaires at the end of six weeks - not bad for three chimpanzees.

There is an argument for being lucky rather than good.  IMO, nobody is THAT good.

They're nice people, but they are selling high risk ideas (risk directly proportional to the level of sacrifice realized by the donor).  Yes, their store stuff is nice, and I'm sure they will treat you well if you go there and inquire.

IMO, their idea is not wholly new.  It sounds a great deal like that of Elgen Long to me, a world-class navigator and heavy-iron trans-Pacific, world-girdling aviator and gentleman who along with his wife Marie wrote the book on crashed and sank. 

The twist may be that per Gary LaPook's writings in this place (help yourself, prolific - which he seems to regard in large part as his treatise d' confidence for his standing as consulting navigation theorist for Stratus) suggest that some sort of search pattern wrinkle may alter the supposed area of loss from that envisioned by Long. 

It's not entirely clear, and the specifics of where Stratus intends to search is very understandably a proprietary secret, as one cannot declare a section of open sea off limits to others who might swoop in for the glory.  That is one distinct advantage TIGHAR has in her venue at Niku: protection under agreement with sovereign Kiribati, subject to their goodwill and ability to protect, of course.

I am one, BTW, who believes Gary would serve himself and Stratus better were he to commit his general rationale, sans the telling detail so as to not comprise the solution, to academic paper: pointing to a scattered smattering of posts here, and at his site 'Fredienoonan.com' in the middle, and to a well received lecture to navigation veterans over there is a bit hard on those who might otherwise more kindly consider his curriculum vitae for the sake of such an important stake.  It would also lend a means to lead observers not into the potentially negative tone of frequently irascibly contested forum points, but into the more dispassionately calm mind of the intellectual expert.  Alas, the instinct of the counselor thus far prevails...  ::)

Yes we apparently have in Stratus a seeker of not-for-profit status whereby OPM (sometimes pronounced 'opium', for the uninitiated) can be solicited from the public for whatever reasons the proprietor(s), sovereign state of Ireland and donors can agree are legal, ethical, edifying and/or otherwise rewarding - ostensibly for the joy of solving the mystery in honor of Earhart's Irish ties and to the delight of those who'd celebrate LaPook's vision.  Judging by what one can observe at the Stratus site (no movement of late that I can tell) it must have been a blustery winter in Belfast. 

It may prove a rainy spring, as well. 

Some hold that TIGHAR is to blame by having consumed the lion's share of an oddly-imagined finite pool of funds.  At times it seems that if funds are to become available, TIGHAR's frailties must be pointed out that would-be investors could be wrested free from their misunderstandings and redirected to the correct camp. 

I question that severely as an exercise of mental diddling in the madness of finite wealth / market inelasticity that makes no sense: the public is generally willing to be plied to support worthwhile ideas, but may be reserved where ideas do not seem worthwhile due to risk, or for other reasons such as interest or questions as to qui bono, etc.  TIGHAR can no doubt attest that it is a matter of great effort to overcome market timidity for any number of such reasons, and while some degree of market shock may exist at times for various reasons, each new approach is just that where people yearn to know the answer.  Boring a hole in the Pacific of some several hundred or even thousand square mies probably rocks the wealthy and more pedestrian potential backer back on his/her heels more than we'd like to think, unfortunately.  I for one have come to appreciate just how large a task that can be.

One doesn't know for certain, but TIGHAR might well add that this has always been a tough prospect that has grown tougher of late. 

TIGHAR can at least point to what Ballard once referred to as a 'box' - and his words on that, as in many things, are worth the read: no matter how attractive or intriguing a search object, there's little point if you can't reasonably confine the search area; Earhart's loss legacy is essentially devoid of strong terms by which to reasonably confine an open sea search.  Niku at least provides some semblance of reason, geographically speaking, however elusive the wreck continues to prove itself.

LaPook counters the notion of Niku in some respectable ways, and others more viscerally expressed - but nearly all with a flare of distaste for that which is not crashed and sank, and all in support of a die-hard belief in Earhart's effort to find Howland or... crash and sink.

Long used a beautifully simple observation: all that we can reasonably tell, when taken at face value, suggests that Earhart ran out of fuel and crashed into the sea moments after her last known transmission to Itasca, somewhere near and to the north / west of Howland Island.  When one looks at Itasca's early moments in this misadventure - the first and only on scene and reacting to contemporary conditions that no outsider could know as well later, it makes very good sense.

So we have in Stratus, in my now somewhat agnostic if not jaundiced view, another craps table in the Earhart Casino.  Not to demean, truly - I merely enjoy mirth - if not a twist of the blade at times, and acknowledging that good, if imperfect people are where you find them.  And many are sincere searchers, but it has become some industry, hasn't it?

They are all worthy of study - if perhaps for a variety of reasons, not all having to do with likely success - and those like TIGHAR and Long who've devoted years of effort have produced very impressive works to ponder.  But remember, when it comes to the search, excellence may just be outshined by a chimp.  Gillespie himself has spoken of the need for luck at least once in my feeble memory, and it seems very true.
- Jeff Neville

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« Last Edit: April 15, 2015, 08:37:55 AM by Jeffrey Neville »
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Bob Smith

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Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
« Reply #33 on: April 15, 2015, 12:10:34 AM »

Jeff I agree for the most part and I love your sense of humor, and your ability to inject intellectual reality into all this. If we only had the smaller box that Ballard had and his luck and resources we would be on to another project I suppose. It is just fun to watch sometimes, the people and the theories! We maybe could use a couple of chimps..
Bob S.
 
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JNev

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Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
« Reply #34 on: April 15, 2015, 07:39:54 AM »

Thanks, Bob.  If it can't be fun and freshly honest, what's the point...

Sometimes I think I am the chimp - except for my luck; 'chump' may be more like it more often.  ::)

I'm sure Ric has enough monkeys on his back to have plenty of luck, but perhaps we could chimp, er, chip in, and provide a lucky mascot for Niku VIII...  ;)

While I wish the scope of Niku VIII were different, I will say that in those terms it is boxed well: the anomaly is in a doable area.

Yes it would be nice to have the resources Ballard has enjoyed time and again - including intelligence from his own navy: more was probably realized about Titanic's whereabouts than we understood at the time, fair enough.  Titanic is also many times the size and density of an Electra, not fair at all but beyond the control of all who would be fair, if they only could be.
- Jeff Neville

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« Last Edit: April 15, 2015, 08:43:57 AM by Jeffrey Neville »
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Mark Appel

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Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
« Reply #35 on: April 16, 2015, 12:18:14 PM »

Well, that triple 7 is actually thought to be in the Indian Ocean... but point well taken (if it's in an ocean at all, but that's a Saipan kind of notion all its own I suppose...).

"Indian Ocean???" DOAH! No wonder they haven't found it yet...
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JNev

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Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
« Reply #36 on: April 16, 2015, 12:38:58 PM »

Well, that triple 7 is actually thought to be in the Indian Ocean... but point well taken (if it's in an ocean at all, but that's a Saipan kind of notion all its own I suppose...).

"Indian Ocean???" DOAH! No wonder they haven't found it yet...

 ;)
- Jeff Neville

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