The World Flight, Second Attempt:
The Forecast Weather |
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Randall S. Jacobson, Ph.D. |
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The
first weather report that Earhart possibly received in Lae, New Guinea dates
from a filing at 2120 GMT June 29, 1937, regarding a weather forecast from
Howland to Honolulu.1 The next weather report
of significance regarding her flight to Howland was provided by the Itasca
at 0830 GMT, June 30th, and consists of weather around the Howland area:
“recent clouds cirro stratus 3/10ths and some strato cumulus surface wind
E 11-19 knots at 8000 feet.”2
The Fleet Air Base, Pearl Harbor, had been collecting all available weather information, and providing a forecast for Earhart. Their first forecast was provided at 0915 GMT on June 30:
At 1310 GMT, Radio Tutuila sent an encoded weather report from the Swan.4 It was standard practice for ships at sea to use a conventional coding scheme for reporting weather, as it saves keystrokes. It is unclear whether Earhart had access to the format for these weather reports. Sometime that same day, Earhart received another encoded weather report from Itasca.5 At 2055 GMT, Radio Tutuila sent yet another, partially encoded weather report to Earhart from the Swan.6 At 2100 GMT, June 30, Fleet Air Base, Pearl Harbor sent another Howland to Honolulu forecast to Earhart.7 Finally, at 2250 GMT, Fleet Air Base sent a Lae – Howland forecast:
Sometime during June 30, Earhart received this message from Nauru:
On July 1, Earhart received a partially encoded weather report from Radio Tutuila at 0110 GMT, describing the Itasca and Howland Island. What can be readily deciphered is that at Howland has a barometer reading of 28.83, temperature is 78 degrees, 50% cloud cover of ACI (alto cirrus), winds at surface E at 13, E at 3000 feet at 23 knots, and at 4000 feet, then E at 22 knots at 5650 feet.10 At sometime after 0200 GMT, Radio Tutuila sent an encoded weather report from Swan.11 At 1905 GMT, the Fleet Air Base in Pearl Harbor released this forecast, but it was received at Lae just as the plane was taking off:
(This forecast was later officially characterized as “based on opinion, as insufficient data was unavailable for an accurate prediction.”13) At the same approximate time, this message arrived from Rabaul:
This represented actual observations at Nauru. Whether or not Earhart would have elected to once more postpone the flight had she seen this information is entirely speculative. Lae wireless operator Harry Balfour did broadcast the new weather every hour for the next seven hours after the takeoff,15 but nowhere is there any evidence that Earhart received his signals. In fact, Lae representatives stated later, on July 16, that the weather forecast “ …was transmitted to KHAQQ after departure three times by radiophone at 1022AM, 1122AM, and 1222PM. Also message containing weather report from Nauru which Earhart was anxious get. Have reason believe Earhart received these although her replies were jammed.”16 It is unclear how the Lae personnel felt Earhart had received these messages, despite apparently not receiving any replies, due to “jamming.” Information about the weather actually encountered en route is sketchy. There is, however, no evidence that it was as bad as the forecast and there is considerable evidence to indicate that cloud conditions were not a factor in the disappearance of the flight. |
Footnotes | |
1 | NARA RG 26, Thompson Radio Transcripts. Back. |
2 | Ibid. Back. |
3 | Ibid. Back. |
4 | Purdue University Library Archives. Back. |
5 | Ibid. Back. |
6 | Ibid. Back. |
7 | NARA, RG. 26, Thompson Radio Transcripts. Back. |
8 | Purdue University Library Archives. Back. |
9 | Ibid. Back. |
10 | Ibid. Back. |
11 | Chater Report. Back. |
12 | NARA, RG. 94/407, Cooper. Back. |
13 | Chater Report . Back. |
14 | Chater Report. Back. |
15 | Ibid. Back. |
16 | NARA, San Bruno, RG. 181. Back. |
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