Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 10:49:14 From: Scott White Subject: Re: "Coprolite" and lanolin bottle Just a wild guess - could the "coprolite" be an old, badly oxidized battery? http://acswebcontent.acs.org/landmarks/drycell/columbia.html Best, -SW ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 10:49:42 From: Larry Turner Subject: Re: Coprolite? What about a 1937 Ever Ready Dry Cell ? http://www.thebakken.org/artifacts/database/artifact.asp? type=category&category=B1%2E1%2E6&offset=%2D1&id=1377 ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 10:50:22 From: Tom King Subject: Re: Niku V Reports For Karen Hoy Ric can speak with more authority than I on the zipper, since he has it in hand (as it were), but I'd call it pretty light-weight. There's an image at http://www.tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/NikuV/ Analysis_and_Reports/Metal_and_Glass/NikuVanalysisMG.htm Things to do in NYC? How about following up on the Schiaparelli connection? I see her company has offices there; see http:// www.schiaparelli.com/scarf2.htm. Perhaps they can point us toward a collection of period clothes whose zippers we could examine. LTM (who wishes all her children a very happy and productive '08) ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 10:50:50 From: Tom King Subject: Re: Other necessities For Ron Bright Thanks for the list, Ron. Let's see.... <> Well, those we (and Gallagher) may have. <> I wonder what it would have been made of. <> Don't know how we'd distinguish these from colonist material. <> I wonder what kind. <> Unlikely to survive << tomato juice can (Beachnut)>> Haven't found one that's been recognized. << thermos bottle>> Nope <> We've found glasses, but in the village, where there are many possible sources. << ice pick>> Nope <> I'm trying to imagine what that would look like. <> Nothing identified as such. The big problem, of course, is that most of these are pretty common items, so finding one wouldn't really "prove" anything. But it's an interesting list, anyhow. LTM (who lists to starboard) ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 10:51:25 From: Tom King Subject: Re: DNA? For Ron Bright > For a look at the "bare essentials" that AE took along, see page 116 > of "Women Aloft" for a photo of AEs powder compact which was a > "priority accessory" on all her flights. Looks like a 3 bty4 metal > compact with various applicators VERY interesting. I don't have "Women Aloft;" Ric, is it in the TIGHAR Central Library? LTM (who knows her priorities) ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 10:51:58 From: Tom King Subject: Re: Coprolite? For Mike Piner > Dr King what about some approx dimensions? Like length, > and diameter of the ferrous part, and where was the charcoal, > (diameter?). Flashlight? shotgun shell? Mike, the thing is in several pieces, somewhat irregular in size and shape except they're sort of roughly cylindrical, each maybe half an inch to an inch long, 1/4 to 3/8 inch thick. Don't know how thick the "core" is; it's only been reported by the coprolite specialist who took one fragment apart, and the whole collection is currently with the DNA lab. The charcoal is in flecks in the material surrounding the "core." Since the thing was lying next to a fire, there's an obvious external source for the charcoal, but this doesn't mean that IS the source. I've seen flashlight batteries in archaeological contexts, and they haven't looked anything like this item. Ditto with shotgun shells. The flare idea is the first one that's made sense to me, but I'm definitely grasping at straws. LTM (who says straws are better than some things one might grasp, under the circumstances). ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 10:52:22 From: Rick Jones Subject: Re: Zippers For Karen Hoy Here is a link to the Purdue photo showing AE's zipper, if it will help you with your search effort. LTM Rick J http://tinyurl.com/2m6pbr ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 11:02:19 From: Ric Gillespie Subject: Re: DNA? Tom King asked: > I don't have "Women Aloft;" Ric, is it in the TIGHAR Central Library? No, but I've ordered a copy. Ric ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 11:02:42 From: Tom King Subject: Re: Coprolite? For Larry Turner and others: I guess a battery is a possibility. Those I've seen in archaeological situations (i.e. found in the ground) have been a lot solider, more rock-like, and relatively heavy, but no doubt there are lots of environmental and other variables that affect the way a battery would be transformed over the years. Once it's safe to do so (i.e. once examination for DNA is complete), we'll clearly need to get a good physical and chemical analysis of the thing, which should give us an answer. LTM (who finds the discussion electrifying) ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 11:12:57 From: Ric Gillespie Subject: Re: DNA? Rick Jones asked, > Has Dr. Kar Burns published any additional findings from the taphonomy > experiment? Not yet. Kar was very busy teaching in Bogota, Colombia and then, tragically, her husband died suddenly and unexpectedly. Needless to say, getting the results of the taphonomy experiment written up will have to wait a bit. > Do we know what the crabs did with the bones? Eaten? Buried? > How deep? What radius from the site, generally? Was anything > discovered to give us hope of finding bones from the original site? I can tell you this much. Some bones were found several meters away. Others weren't found at all. We don't know what happened to them. No bones were known to be buried or carried down into burrows, and no bones were known to be eaten up. What we did discover - and it's an important discovery - is that crabs do not work along on a carcass until everything is gone. It seems that when a critter dies on Niku, it's a race between the sun and the scavengers. Once the remains are so dried out that they no longer contain any appreciable degree of moisture, the crabs lose interest. Therefore, the presence of a partial castaway skeleton in 1940 does not necessarily mean that the person died within a matter of months from the time of discovery. > In the Niku V CD there was a picture of a small colored glass bottle I would > like to see in more detail. Is there another photo of the pieces which > include the logo on the bottom? Maybe other views of the remaining other > pieces? I think you're talking about the green glass bottle. I've been doing quite a bit of work with it, jigsaw-puzzling it back together as much as possible (which is pretty tricky given that much of it is melted). We'll publish photos in the next TIGHAR Tracks (coming soon) and also post them on the website. Ric ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 11:13:35 From: Ric Gillespie Subject: Re: Cosmetics Ted Campbell wrote, > Ric, how is TIGHAR's relations with the Purdue AE collection people? > > I noticed that they (Purdue) had a cosmetic's case that belonged to > AE. I wonder if the contents match that of what you recently > reported finding on Niku. Purdue has been very cooperative in the past, but then we've never before asked to take a piece of something from the collection. All we need is a sample the size of a pin head, so I'm hoping they'll be okay with that. Ric ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 11:22:49 From: Ric Gillespie Subject: Re: Niku V reports > Are we going to see additional reports/analysis of the objects > found on the web site? > > Seems like there was more stuff returned from Niku V than I > originally thought. Also, there is testing/analysis going on that > would present some interesting reading, and who knows, a "I have > one of those" moments. Yes, the more we learn about the stuff we brought back, the more interesting it gets. Finding the money to do the analysis and research has been a problem. And then there's the old problem of when to stop researching and start publishing results. We'll get a new TIGHAR Tracks written and new Research Bulletins up on the website as soon a possible. Ric ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 11:43:04 From: Ric Gillespie Subject: Re: Niku V reports Karen Hoy asked: > As for the Niku zipper, does it appear to be a heavy duty item > (such as might be found on trousers) or lightweight? I seem to > recall that Schiaparelli put zippers anywhere on some garments, > even as mere decoration. My impression is that at least some of the Schiaparelli/Talon zippers were custom-made with fancy pulls. The Niku zipper is not one of those. The Niku zipper is not a heavy-duty jacket zipper or a teeny- weeny decorative zipper. The Niku zipper looks like one of several standard Talon zippers pictured in a book about the Talon company history published in 1963 and is labeled a "trouser zipper." > Is there anything else I can do in NYC? In the spring of 1937, Talon ran an ad campaign in The Saturday Evening Post, The New Yorker, and Esquire pushing the use of zippers on clothing. It would be interesting to look at those ads. Also, while flipping through period periodicals, keep an eye out for ads for bottled lotions or hair care products in bottles that look like our little 1933 bottle (AO5bottleT.jpg on the Niku V CD). Thanks Karen. Ric ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 12:00:15 From: Mike Piner Subject: Re: Niku V reports For Dr King Look at the Purdue collection on line; Picture 135- a fancy bottle, 546- a compact, 559 - a green bottle. 561, - a pair of sunglasses, and 562 - A WATER LIGHT. Now I know many in the forum have seen these item, but the new folks maybe haven't seen them. LTM mp ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 12:55:04 From: Tom King Subject: Re: Niku V reports For Mike Piner Thanks, Mike; I'd forgotten the smelling salts bottle and water light. We haven't found a good match for any of these items, unless the green bottle that Ric's reconstructing winds up looking a lot different than its pieces suggested in the field. ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 17:19:52 From: William Webster-Garman Subject: long, cylindrical ferrous core Speaking of possible candidates from the 1930s, how about something like one of these big old Western Union style Everready "gray label long life telephone" cells? http://www.prc68.com/I/SWCC2.shtml ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 17:20:17 From: Rick Jones Subject: Re: Niku V reports The compact mirror picture is very interesting, Mike. I'm surprised that the analysis of the glass from Niku didn't indicate a silvered surface. I have placed the TinyURLs for these two here to make it easier for everyone to view. http://tinyurl.com/3ymuw5 http://tinyurl.com/32ezdb LTM Rick J ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 17:46:40 From: William Webster-Garman Subject: Re: Niku V reports What I find most interesting is, the Purdue compact mirror and the 7 site glass artifact seem to be about the same size and both appear to have similarly beveled edges. ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 20:38:53 From: Tom King Subject: Re: Niku V reports The analyst at the Winterthur Lab said she wouldn't be at all surprised at a mirror losing its silvering in the rigors of Niku weather and sunlight. But the Purdue compact mirror, though beveled like the Niku specimen, is smaller. LTM (who says size matters) ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 20:59:45 From: William Webster-Garman Subject: Re: Niku V reports Tom King wrote > But the Purdue compact mirror, though beveled like the Niku > specimen, is smaller. > LTM (who says size matters) Thanks Tom. Makes me think she could have taken along a bigger one from the same favoured manufacturer for her round-the-world flight maybe, seeing as how a slightly bigger compact might have played a handy, all-in-one kind of role in her grooming-whilst-flying routine. LTM (who says if the shoe fits...) ======================================================================== Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2008 08:05:12 From: Ron Bright Subject: Re: Niku V reports See page 16 for a photograph of Amelia's powder compact that she reportedly took with her and compare it to the one at Purdue. Page 117 shows ph0tos of the smelling salt bottle and the emergency light canister (metal) with what appears to be a brass identification top, made in New York and labeled "Marine Torch". reb ======================================================================== Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2008 08:05:28 From: Mike Piner Subject: Mother It would be interesting reading if someone put together the many Things that Mother has quipped on this forum. LTM, who says a lot of true words. mp ======================================================================== Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2008 08:39:44 From: Dan Postellon Subject: Re: Niku V reports That makes sense. The Purdue mirror appears to be corroding. Dan Postellon. > From Tom King for William Webster-Garman and Rick Jones The analyst > at the Winterthur Lab said she wouldn't be at all surprised at a > mirror losing its slivering in the rigors of Niku weather and > sunlight. But the Purdue compact mirror, though beveled like the > Niku specimen, is smaller. LTM (who says size matters) ======================================================================== Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2008 12:04:49 From: Ron Bright Subject: Re: photos of compact, etc. Forgot to post the book that contains photos of various items that AE usually carried with her. It is "Women Aloft", by Valerie Moolman, a Time Life Book, 1981,and photo credits go to Smithsonian. Obviously she didn't have these items aboard but does show the type of compact with four holders inside with the powder bags. There is a manufacturer but I can't read it all, made in "New York". Heck maybe from Jackie Cochrans collections. REB ======================================================================== Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2008 12:29:21 From: Rick Jones Subject: Re: Compacts The Purdue compact was "Mondame of New York, NY". I found several on ebay which were all of the same general dimension of the Purdue compact, but slightly smaller than the beveled glass artifact. LTM Rick J ======================================================================== Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2008 14:01:51 From: Tom Roberts Subject: Re: Compacts "Mondame" on the Purdue website appears to be a typo or misprint. Mondaine, had a line of compacts in the 1930's, but Mondame seems to draw a blank (even on eBay), except for the Purdue website. Also, Gary Quigg visited Purdue, I believe on October 2, 2007, and took close-up photos of their compact. At least one of these clearly shows "Mondaine" below the rouge section of that compact. LTM, Tom Roberts ======================================================================== Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2008 14:46:53 From: Rick Jones Subject: Re: Compacts For Tom Roberts Good catch Tom. Many more hits on Google with Mondaine. Here is one that is 3"x4" with a mirror that looks to be closer to the artifact dimension in height. http://www.tias.com/11052/PictPage/1922725386.html Rick J ======================================================================== Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2008 13:01:13 From: Adam Marsland Subject: New book? So if the new find works out, and DNA is obtained, will there then be a new book called..."Amelia Earhart's Crap?" ======================================================================== Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2008 17:30:40 From: Mona Kendrick Subject: Re: New book? > From Adam Marsland > > So if the new find works out, and DNA is obtained, will there then be > a new book called..."Amelia Earhart's Crap?" > Either that, or "Noonan's Number Two." --Mona ******************************************** Why do I have this feeling that I will regret posting these remarks? ;-) Pat ======================================================================== Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2008 16:31:30 From: Mike Piner Subject: Sunline A Interesting web site is http://timeanddate.com/worldclocl/ sunearth.html . You can see the representation of the sunline. Wait until July 2, this year to see if this sunline goes thru (vicinity) of Howland, Mckeon, Gardner. LTM mp ======================================================================== Date: Sat, 5 Jan 2008 10:35:14 From: Karen Hoy Subject: Re: Talon zipper I have been unable to (so far) find a good close-up shot of a 1930s zipper and slider paralleling the one from the Seven Site. This picture: http://www.acmedepot.com/a2jacket/a2images/rw_zip.jpg is a good match for the zipper, in situ on a World War II bomber jacket made by Rough Wear. The Acme Depot site, http://www.acmedepot.com/a2jacket/index.shtml is a great resource on the subject of vintage WWII jackets. LTM (who tells me to keep my jacket zipped) Karen ======================================================================== Date: Sat, 5 Jan 2008 10:36:06 From: Suzanne Astorino Subject: Re: Sunline Mike's URL had a typo plus an extra space. There is the correct URL: http://timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunearth.html ======================================================================== Date: Sat, 5 Jan 2008 19:43:33 From: Ric Gillespie Subject: Re: Talon zipper Karen Hoy writes, > I have been unable to (so far) find a good close-up shot of a 1930s > zipper and slider paralleling the one from the Seven Site. This > picture: > > http://www.acmedepot.com/a2jacket/a2images/rw_zip.jpg > > is a good match for the zipper, in situ on a World War II bomber > jacket made by Rough Wear. Actually, it's not a good match. That's what Talon termed a "heavy- duty" zipper and it's quite a bit beefier than the Niku zipper. It also has the Talon name on the bar above the pull - a standard feature of the "heavy-duty" design but not present on the Niku zipper. You're right that the Acme website has good detailed information about zippers on military jackets. We'll want to contact Marc D. Weinshenker directly. The following are my comments on his description of Talon zippers from the website (http:// www.acmedepot.com/a2jacket/a2detail.html) "Talon zips appear to have been the predominant brand used, and they can be seen in a small number of variations which appear to be changes over time, judging from their association with A-2 contracts and other gear." That agrees with my research. "Early Talon zips, found on pre-war jackets, had a wide bell-shaped puller with a full-circle cutout, and attached to the slider with a simple rolled hook. Other pullers, apparently of earlier vintage, had an arc-shaped cutout at the bottom and a series of vertical lines on either side." In other words, pre-war military Talon jacket zips were unlike the Niku artifact. "Next came the triple-marked Talon, so called because the name Talon appears on (1) the new vertical bar of the slider, (2) the puller tab, and (3) the stopper box. These were produced with both rectangular and the new narrower bell-shaped pullers, but the bell- shaped pullers now had a half-circle cutout. The rectangular pullers are seen on A-2 jackets much less often than the bell-shaped pullers." The zipper pictured at http://www.acmedepot.com/a2jacket/a2images/ rw_zip.jpg is a "triple-marked" Talon. "The next variation was to simplify the pattern on the stopper box and remove the Talon name. These unnamed stopper boxes are often seen in a hybrid configuration with the double-marked puller/slider combination." No stopper box was found. Of course, that doesn't mean there wasn't a stopper box but other small metal items such as the snap were found with the metal detector. The small size of the zipper pull, the presence of a snap and a button, and the apparent absence of a stopper box all suggest a pair of pants rather than a jacket. "Finally, the Talon name was removed from the vertical bar on the slider to go along with the unmarked stopper box. Further evolution continued, with the primary difference being the change of the cutout on the puller from a half-circle back to the full circle, but by this time A-2 production was phasing out. I have, however, seen a final contract Dubow with this puller version." The information I found indicated that Talon stopped putting its name on the product when they could no longer use brass. That would be between the summer of 1941 and the fall of 1944. Ric ======================================================================== Date: Sat, 5 Jan 2008 19:44:11 From: Rick Jones Subject: Re: Talon zipper For Karen Hoy A vintage 30's 40's motorcycle jacket (ladies) is shown here: http://www.vintagemotorcyclejackets.com/jkt27.htm and a close-up of the pull is shown here. http://www.vintagemotorcyclejackets.com/jkt29.htm Rick J ======================================================================== Date: Sat, 5 Jan 2008 19:44:36 From: Rick Jones Subject: Re: Talon zipper For Karen Hoy The jacket zipper pulls look like good leads, but if the jacket AE had with her is the same one in the picture with Jay Quinby (on the Purdue site), we can assume some other use for the zipper pull and slide found at the 7 site. I personally like the connection to the button and the snap, thinking it could be from a pair of slacks, perhaps. http://tinyurl.com/2nujfa LTM, Rick J ======================================================================== Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2008 19:55:53 From: Tom King Subject: Re: Talon zipper > The small size of the zipper pull, the > presence of a snap and a button, and the apparent absence of a > stopper box all suggest a pair of pants rather than a jacket. The small size certainly argues for something other than a jacket, but I'd be careful about making too much of the absence of a stopper box and the presence of a snap and button. The snap was about 10 meters away from the zipper pull, and I don't know where exactly the button (found in '96) was. And it's awfully tricky to make an argument based on something's absence. LTM (who's present) ======================================================================== Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2008 19:56:08 From: Mike Piner Subject: Re: Zipper pull Perhaps the zipper in Pic # 230 of the Purdue Collection can be enhanced. This photo , if usable, has to be dated, and the place established. On the round the world flight we hope. I have searched the Purdue site twice, and this is the only small Zipper pull. LTM mp ======================================================================== Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2008 19:56:34 From: Jerry Hamilton Subject: 1934 Talon zipper ad An interesting ad from Talon. In the Apparel Arts magazine from Fall, 1934. Some other clothing ads with zippered items as well. Gives a good feel for the time period. If you think it worth while I can research other Apparel Arts ads for the 30s. http://www.thefedoralounge.com/showthread.php?t=18122 blue skies, jerry ======================================================================== Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2008 21:12:56 From: Mona Kendrick Subject: Re: 1934 Talon zipper ad > From Jerry Hamilton (2128) > > If you think it worth while I can > research other Apparel Arts ads for the 30s. Yeah, why don't you see if you can find any zippered women's slacks? --Mona ======================================================================== Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2008 08:26:06 From: Tom King Subject: Re: Talon zipper ad > Yeah, why don't you see if you can find any zippered women's slacks? There just HAVE to be some honest-to-god collections of 1930s women's clothes somewhere. What we need are some slacks we can actually look at in person, do side-by-side zipper comparisons. ======================================================================== Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2008 12:26:55 From: Karen Hoy Subject: Re: Talon zippers I've been told that the Museum of the City of New York has a great collection of vintage clothing (17th century to present, over 27,000 items, all documented.) It is not on public display, but scholarly inquiries are welcome. Contact information: Conducting research at the Museum of the City of New York is centrally coordinated through the Department of Collections Access. Requests are fielded via phone, email, fax and mail. To contact the Department of Collections Access you may leave a message at: 212.534.1672 x 3399, send an email to research@mcny.org, send a fax to 212.534.5974 or mail a letter to Department of Collections Access, Museum of the City of New York, 1220 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10029. Queries are answered in the order in which they are received. It may take two weeks or more before you receive a response to your initial inquiry. Let me know if there's anything I can do, Karen Hoy ======================================================================== Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2008 17:51:57 From: Stephen Packard Subject: Nikumaroro on Google Earth updated I'm not sure if everyone already knows this, but if not... I cruised over to Nikumaroro on Google Earth today and was surprised to see that the island is now avaliable in very nice high resolution imagery. Better than the satellite photos I had previously seen of the island. I'd estimate the resolution is 2 meters or less full color, although there is some compression. This is quite an update because last I had checked (a few months ago), the island showed up as a splotch of green pixels n the ocean. Nice to see it updated and worth taking a look at ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2008 16:25:07 From: Tom Doran Subject: Magazine article about Niku V I noticed today that a surveying magazine I subscribe to had an article on Tighar's most recent trip to Niku. http://www.pobonline.com/CDA/Archives/ BNP_GUID_9-5-2006_A_10000000000000209557 The article is pretty well done and accurate, as best I can tell. It was written by Mike North, a surveyor. The "hook" for the magazine was that the team used surveying equipment to map out locations on the island. North doesn't mention how he became aware of the project. Tom Doran, #2796 ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2008 20:00:29 From: Karen Hoy Subject: Re: Talon zipper I've just been looking at Esquire and Saturday Evening Post ads from the spring of 1937. They were advertising "slide fasteners" (aka zippers) on men's shirts, trousers and undershorts. The ads for trousers and undershorts specified Talon as the brand. In addition, the Sears catalog was showing zipped men's jackets in 1936, and zipped women's blazers in 1937. Talon zippers were shown on men's sweatshirts in 1937. The earliest Sears ads for the "Easy-on-Talon Fastener" were for women's leather jackets in 1934, and some purses beginning that year also had zipped pockets. Blum, Stella (ed.) "Everyday Fashions of the Thirties as Pictured in Sears Catalogs." New York: Dover Publications, 1986. Karen ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2008 20:00:58 From: Karen Hoy Subject: Zipped jackets? I just looked at some of the Purdue photos and could only find one with obvious zippers, on the jackets held by Noonan and Earhart. The magnification feature only goes so far! http://earchives.lib.purdue.edu/u?/earhart,315 Karen ======================================================================== Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2008 21:53:27 From: Mike Piner Subject: Moon shots I come across an interesting piece called "Death by Parallax" in which the author discusses the problem of fixes with the moon when it is near the horizon or not really high, because of its closeness to the earth. http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/h2g2/A3694854 ======================================================================== Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2008 11:50:45 From: Tom Doran Subject: Re: Moon shots <> Arguing that FN "forgot" to correct for parallax and refraction is implausible. Although anything is possible (maybe AE forgot to check the fuel level) Noonan by all accounts was an expert navigator. This correction is elementary and routine. I don't know how Noonan did his calculations. When I was doing them in the Army 30 something years ago we had preprinted forms in which you entered a series of values. You couldn't accidently leave anything out. If Noonan added things up on a legal pad or in a notebook he would have developed a personalized method of calculation such as, "Add these four numbers, divide by that and subtract this." It wouldn't "look" right if something were missing. We don't know for certain how many times Noonan calculated position or direction, but you'd have to argue he made this blunder each time, over and over. Tom Doran, #2796 ======================================================================== Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2008 18:36:52 From: Tom Doran Subject: Hillary Swank movie on Earhart A movie about AE to star Hillary Swank was recently announced. Planned release is the end of 2008 but the writer's strike may delay production which was to have started next month. Swank has been quoted as saying the script will not address any theory about the disappearance. One aspect of the story will be portraying AE as a pioneering advocate of women's rights. A movie about AE with an Oscar-winning star and already described as an "Oscar-contender," is sure to put AE in the news again. The publicity is something TIGHAR could take advantage of. I don't know what funds might be available for paid advertising but it might be wise to do whatever is necessary to be sure that TIGHAR's story is readily available. For instance, the week the movie is released might be a good time to do a splashy press conference announcing whatever results are available from analyzing evidence recovered from the most recent trip. Maybe one of the women who participated in the recent trip to Niku could get an article published and do some speaking engagements. This could start small with an article in a community newspaper and a talk to a local women's club. It could build to the local daily paper and TV station, later getting picked up nationally. There should be ample material in TIGHAR's files to create an audiovisual presentation for such speakers. Recently I become aware of the big audience such material can draw on YouTube. Some aviation things draw hundreds of thousands of viewers. Tom Doran, #2796 ======================================================================== Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2008 18:37:29 From: Mike Piner Subject: Re: Moon shots For Tom Doran: I am glad when I see something that expalins something that I don't understand. I have never done celestial navigation, and admire those who can. My expertise was Hydraulics and Hydrology, in flood control situations, With the Corps of Engineers. I agree with you. that he (Noonan) got the airplane right there, so he did a Great job of navigating. That was a great point that He would have forgot it all night. It is however possible that he wasn't sighting the moon until after the sun came up, and he had no more stars to sight on. We don't know what happened, but maybe it is the simplest of things, like patchey clouds that look like islands, so that you don't see the real one. Going southeast Noonan would be navigating with what he had, The Sun and the Moon, and we think he got to Gardner I. LTM mp ======================================================================== Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2008 18:37:59 From: Russ Matthews Subject: AE gets "Lost" Perhaps it was inevitable, but our favorite missing aviatrix has recently been woven into the ever unfolding story of the mysterious (though fictional) castaway air crash survivors of ABC's hit series "Lost." More precisely, she has been featured indirectly as part of an elaborate on-line marketing campaign leading up to the launch of the show's fourth season on January 31st. If you're fans of the show (or just curious), check out this link... http://www.flyoceanicair.com/ ...to the "official home page" of the series' (made up) air carrier Oceanic Airlines. After a brief moment, visitors to the site will discover that it has been "hacked" by a former employee (and IT expert) who's flight attendant girlfriend was on board the Los Angeles bound Oceanic #815 when it vanished a few hours after takeoff from Sydney, Australia in September, 2004 (when "Lost" premiered). Visitors are then redirected to this "renegade site"... http://www.find815.com ...which chronicles "Sam Thomas" in his quest to get to the bottom of the disappearance of flight 815 and learn the ultimate fate of his beloved "Sonya." Information is revealed through specially filmed "webisodes," clever puzzles, and interactive access to "Sam's" phone messages, emails, browser history, and video diaries. Through the course of the investigation, there have been increasing references to Earhart (though her ultimate connection to the show's over-arcing plot has yet to be made clear). Evidently a lot of thought, energy, and money has been invested into what strikes me as one of the most in-depth and engaging web-based promotional efforts to date. LTM (who always likes a good story), Russ ======================================================================== Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2008 22:27:17 From: Tom Byers Subject: Re: Hillary Swank movie on Earhart The title of the film should be, "Never Finding Land" Tom ======================================================================== Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2008 10:06:05 From: William Webster-Garman Subject: Re: Hillary Swank movie on Earhart Tom Byers wrote, > The title of the film should be, "Never Finding Land" Or "The Right Shoes" ======================================================================== Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2008 10:11:27 From: Tom King Subject: The Sun Line Theory is Wrong I thought the Forum would enjoy seeing the following, which popped up on my screen unexplained this morning. It seems to me to be a wonderful example of the kind of "thinking" that underlies most Earhart theorizing. > If the Gardner Island scenario cannot be reconciled with the facts > then it's time to look some place else. > > Stafford challenged the sun line theory. > > At sunrise July 2nd 1937 in the vicinity of Howland Island the sun > bore 67 degrees true, 58 magnetic, and would change bearing to the > North, that is decrease in numerical value. > > Amelia was steering a 'magnetic' course. > > The Electra's course was 67 magnetic to Howland Island at that time. > > The maximum value of a sun line could have had was 148-328 magnetic. > > When Noonan thought the plane had overshot Howland Island he had AE > circle then fly at right angles to the original track on a North- > South course or 157-337 magnetic to be exact. > > refer to page 236 of amelia - A LIFE OF THE AVIATION LEGEND by > Goldstein and Dillon. Here's the pattern: 1. Dramatic heading in the form of a statement of "fact" 2. Statement of unassailable (if irrelevant) logic: If the scenario doesn't fit the facts, it's wrong. Duh. The operative word, of course, is "if." 3. Underscored statement that someone challenged the "sun line theory," by which I think is meant the whole Niku hypothesis. Of course, anyone can challenge anything, but presumably to the author this Stafford fellow's challenge is definitive. 4. Several statements of alleged "facts" including numbers, which makes them oh-so-scientific. 5. Statement of "fact" about what Earhart did. 6. Statement of "fact" about what Noonan did. 7. Reference to a specific page in a book; if it's been published, it must be true. If our work does nothing beyond showing a few people that there are alternatives in historical research to this sort of sloppy excuse for thinking, we will have accomplished something. LTM (who insists that her children distinguish between fact and guessing) ======================================================================== Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2008 10:37:42 From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: The sun line theory is wrong Oh, so correct Tom. It is amazing to me all the "facts" some people profess to know. I have, in the past, tried to point out that all we know is that sometime around 10:00 AM to 10:20 AM or so Earhart, Noonan and the Electra took off from Lae New Guinea. We know what heading she was on during take off roll. That is the ONLY heading and position we know for the entire flight. The SE end of the Lae runway is the last position we definitively know. That is it. Not anything else. We have position reports but have little idea where they were exactly at any given time. ALL the rest is speculation -- perhaps reasoned speculation but guesswork just the same. Alan ======================================================================== Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2008 16:40:45 From: Mike Piner Subject: All that we know Thanks Dr King for giving this what it deserves,clearing the air about what is Fact and what is SPECULATION. We on the forum speculate a lot , but I see phrases constantly, that "we do not know what happened, but maybe...." Alan just stated what we know, and I think he was stating what someone actually SAW. We could add to that that the crew of the Itaska HEARD her voice get stronger and believe that AE&FN were CLOSE to Howland Island. To me those are the only two "facts". One fact seen, the other "fact" heard. LTM who had to see it to believe it. mp ======================================================================== Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2008 17:21:00 From: Tom King Subject: Re: All that we know Thanks, Alan and Mike. One more thing: > We could add to that that the crew of the Itaska HEARD her voice > get stronger and > believe that AE&FN were CLOSE to Howland Island. To me those are the > only two "facts". Quite right with respect to what was seen and heard on the night of July 2 1937, but then there are quite a number of other "facts" related to different bodies of evidence, like: A host of fairly well-established "facts" about reception of post- loss messages, bearings taken by Pan Am, etc. The "fact" that human remains and artifacts were found on Nikumaroro in 1940. The "fact" that our investigation of what is probably the site where those remains and artifacts were found has turned up things that appear to suggest the presence of a woman and someone who didn't understand how to open local clams, who may have been the same person. The "fact" that we've found airplane parts on the island that are consistent with an Electra. The "fact" that we found what was apparently a woman's shoe from the 1930s at the Aukaraime Shoe Site. And then there's all the other somewhat less "factual" anecdotal and other evidence -- Emily Sikuli's account, etc. etc. Any one of those lines of evidence might be accounted for by something other than Earhart-on-Niku, but the more such lines we develop, the less likely it is that they can ALL be explained away. That's the flip side of the uncertainty we have to acknowledge about (for instance) exactly where they were at X time on the morning of 2 July. We know very little for sure about any particular line of evidence, but we're coming to know quite a bit about the whole set of evidence lines, and that, I'd submit, is how a mystery most often gets solved. LTM (who likes her children to stay in line) ======================================================================== Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2008 17:49:15 From: Ric Gillespie Subject: Re: Hillary Swank movie on Earhart Tom Doran writes, > A movie about AE to star Hillary Swank was recently announced. > Planned release is the end of 2008 but the writer's strike may > delay production which was to have started next month. Swank has > been quoted as saying the script will not address any theory about > the disappearance. One aspect of the story will be portraying AE as > a pioneering advocate of women's rights. > > A movie about AE with an Oscar-winning star and already described > as an "Oscar-contender," is sure to put AE in the news again. The > publicity is something TIGHAR could take advantage of. We've been keeping a close eye on this and there is no sign that anything is going to happen any time soon. The director who had been named is working on another major film that will be shooting this spring. There's also a good chance that there'll be a screen actors strike this summer. Big Hollywood projects with major stars get announced all the time. Most of them never go any further than the initial hype. Ric ======================================================================== Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2008 10:54:33 From: Tom Doran Subject: Re: Moon shots <> My experience was as a surveyor, not an aviator. Tables were availble for every recognized star. Polaris was the preferred sight, the sun was acceptable but we weren't allowed to use the moon ----too big and calculations would be no better than aproximate. The Sun was what was generally used. Polaris is actually hard to find, and hard to see. It's not visible in half the world. In typical latitudes, say 40 degrees North or less, it is close to the horizon. Terrain or ground haze can obscure it. It's actually fairly dim. Also it's not stationary as generally assumed, but has apparent motion in a small oval through the night. That requires an additional correction which requires precise time. Maybe one of our more veteran avators can say whether flyers in the thirties used the moon for navigation. I'm not sure it would tell you much more than, "You're going NE, more or less." That's not much to go on if you're traveling a thousand miles, looking for a flyspeck island. I also wonder why this writer would assume Noonan got his navigation right every day for more than a month, then grossly blew it in the critical day. I thought his explanation of parallax was weak also. We have parallax becasue tables are calculated as though the observer were at the center of the Earth. Generally when we look at the sky we're on the surface, 4000 miles up from the center, and we're not on the equator. Refraction is the effect of the atmosphere, analogous to the zigzag you see with a pencil in a class of water. Refraction is dependent on latitude. Tom D., #2796 ======================================================================== Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2008 11:35:40 From: Randy Jacobson Subject: Re: Moon shots Based upon charts actually used from Oakland to Hawaii, typically, two or three stars were used to determine a positional fix. Use of 3 stars almost ensures that a single calculational error will pop up. Use of 2 stars may give a widely different position from what was expected, and that actually did happen, so another fix was made about 30 minutes later. Radio bearing information (either obtained on the plane or provided via voice from land) was used at the beginning and the end of the flight to help navigation. Daylight fixes are much harder to make, of course. From the Atlantic crossing charts, there is a noon fix, which helps determine the latitude. Longitude was determined mostly by dead reckoning. The positional fixes are extremely sparse in this case, and mostly consist of LOP's. Tables were available back in 1937 that accounted for altitude, as many fixes were made on the ground at varying altitudes (e.g. on mountains), so those corrections were readily available. ======================================================================== Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2008 21:10:33 From: Karen Hoy Subject: Talon archives The vintage corporate records of Talon, Inc are in the collection of the Crawford County (Pennsylvania) Historical Society. What information has TIGHAR been able to extract from them? Are they a dead end? ************************************************************************ From Ric I didn't know about them so we haven't extracted any information from them. The society has a good website. Karen, if you'd like to handle this line of research drop me an email. Ric ======================================================================== Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2008 10:31:12 From: Gary LaPook Subject: Re: Noonan's Morse capabilities Any idea how big a "second" is as used for geographic coordinates, not for time? Answer: slightly more than 100 feet or one third of a football field, one sixtieth of a nautical mile. Prior to GPS no navigator on a ship (outside the sight of land) or on an aircraft ever knew his position to this level of precision so it makes no sense to believe the "1" in the "281" message could possibly refer to 1 second. the Federal Aviation Regulations only require that celestial position fixes be accurate to 10 NM or 600 seconds of accuracy, not one second of accuracy. Look at it another way, if they could determine their position to that level of precision they would have been drinking Champaign on Howland. gl ======================================================================== Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2008 10:33:41 From: Ted Campbell Subject: Re: Talon archives Have the gals on the site determined if AE was wearing women's or men's pants during her trip. I would expect that the various photos of AE during the trip would offer clues. I seem to remember that years ago the zipper on women's slacks were on the side rather than down the front for men. I would think this would be important if one was looking into the different type zippers used during the 1930's. Ted Campbell ======================================================================== Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2008 11:02:39 From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: Noonan's Morse capabilities Amen, Gary. to me, for what that counts, "281" is an anomaly. It could not represent anything so precise. Neither a time, distance or direction although direction is a remote possibility. If Noonan could determine they were 281 degrees from or to any place he would have to know precisely where he was. I suspect that was misread or an error some how. Just like the message out of Lae that was either 150 degrees 7 minutes or 157 degrees. Alan ======================================================================== Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2008 11:02:57 From: Mike Piner Subject: Earhart's pants Many of the photos in the Purdue collection show her in what appears to be Womens pants. on the left side when you look there is a sort of flap back of the pocket if there is a pocket. Sometimes I have seen a zipper pull, but usually it is hidden by a belt. There is one zipper pull of the small size on pants that is visible but is blurred, can't get a good look. Maybe it can be inhanced. LTM mp ======================================================================== Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2008 12:10:33 From: Wes Smith Subject: Re: Noonan's morse capabilities "281" or "To Anyone"??? Wes ******************************* The message was in code, so not much chance of that kind of confusion. Pat ======================================================================== Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2008 12:35:48 From: Ric Gillespie Subject: Earhart's pants Ted Campbell asks: > Have the gals on the site determined if AE was wearing women's or > men's pants during her trip. I would expect that the various > photos of AE during the trip would offer clues. > > I seem to remember that years ago the zipper on women's slacks were > on the side rather than down the front for men. > > I would think this would be important if one was looking into the > different type zippers used during the 1930's. Numerous photos show very clearly that AE wore side-zip women's slacks. Zippers ("flies") did not appear on men's trousers until October 1937. Ric ======================================================================== Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2008 15:09:11 From: Gary LaPook Subject: Re: Noonan's morse capabilities "281" in morse code consists of only three characters: . . - - - - - - . . . - - - - Which sound like: dit dit dah dah dah dah dah dah dit dit dit dah dah dah dah Note, each numeral character in morse code consists of five elements. All alphabetical characters consist of only one through four elements, none have five elements. see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morse_code gl ======================================================================== Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2008 21:26:54 From: Mike Piner Subject: Re: Noonan's morse capability You are talking about FN's morse ability, and with a mike, not a key and someone hearing the code and writing it down, So what if the last word or number was five dashes, we would have a more believeable situation,wouldn't we? "280" They got North and South mixed up. Maybe meaning to say "280 NM south of Howland Island". ----Just conjecture! LTM who got confused. mp ======================================================================== Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2008 17:34:45 From: Peter Boor Subject: Re: Moon shots My own experience as a USAF Navigator was that the moon as used for celestial had a few problems: 1) Compared to a star, it was too huge to shoot. Where do you aim? The center? A limb? Even shooting the sun was difficult/chancy (though less so than the moon) because of the size of the object; 2) At night stars were always used if the sky was clear. The moon could be shot in daylight, but the cuts with the sun were less than optimum; 3) Errors, especially in timing, were magnified in moon shots because of the relative speed of the moon's travel across the sky. Planet shots had the same problems - stars were best, then sun shots, then planet shots, and the moon was a last resort. I can't believe that navigators of the 1930s were any worse than us - they might even have been better celestially, except for equipment. By the 50s and 60s, Radio, Loran, Doppler and other aids tended to make navigators celestially lazy. When I went to SAC's Bombing Competitions in the mid 50s though, Navigators were graded on a navigational leg using only celestial. By the late 70s, sextants normally installed in bombers and cargo planes were being removed. Peter Boor - USAF Navigator/Bombardier 1953-1960. ======================================================================== Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2008 18:31:07 From: Reed Riddle Subject: Re: Moon Shots > From Peter Boor > > My own experience as a USAF Navigator was that the moon as used for > celestial had a few problems: > 1) Compared to a star, it was too huge to shoot. Where do you aim? > The center? A limb? Even shooting the sun was difficult/chancy > (though less so than the moon) because of the size of the object; The Sun and the Moon are the same angular size in the sky, so the same errors from any measurement should happen. The difference will be that the Moon's orbit around the Earth makes it move quicker across the sky, so without an up to date table of lunar positions errors in the measurements will increase. > 3) Errors, especially in timing, were magnified in moon shots > because of the relative speed of the moon's travel across the sky. > Planet shots had the same problems - stars were best, then sun > shots, then planet shots, and the moon was a last resort. Planets should be more accurate than Moon or Sun shots, because the planets move more slowly. But, the tables might only have one planetary position per month, so estimating between them may increase the errors. Planets are also much smaller, so the "which part do I shoot?" dilemma should not exist. This is all from the astronomy point of view...navigators likely got a much different set of training and had different tools for taking the observations. Reed ======================================================================== Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2008 18:31:35 From: Reed Riddle Subject: Re: Moon shots > From Tom Doran > > I also wonder why this writer would assume Noonan got his > navigation right every day for more than a month, then grossly blew > it in the critical day. I thought his explanation of parallax was > weak also. > We have parallax becasue tables are calculated as though the > observer were at the center of the Earth. Generally when we look at > the sky we're on the surface, 4000 miles up from the center, and > we're not on the equator. Refraction is the effect of the > atmosphere, analogous to the zigzag you see with a pencil in a > class of water. Refraction is dependent on latitude. I guess I need to read the original article, but parallax as we use it in astronomy should have no effect whatsoever on celestial navigation. It is a small number, small enough to fit within the errors of the sextant measurement, for all of the bright stars. The largest parallax is for Alpha Centauri at 0.76 arc seconds. For the Sun, parallax should not matter as you are measuring the current position, and navigators should have had a table that gives that for each day. Also, at the distance the Sun is at, the radius of the Earth is again too small to worry about. Refraction depends on altitude of the object above the horizon; for anything above 15 degrees it is an easy correction, but below that it is more complicated. I don't know how navigators handle the two cases. I have never read anywhere that atmospheric refraction depends on the position on the Earth; in astronomy we just treat the atmosphere the same all over the planet when we correct for it. Reed ======================================================================== Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2008 19:48:26 From: Mark Prange Subject: Re: Moon shots From Earth The Moon's parallax can be considerable. For July 1, 1937 the Nautical Almanac tabulated its maximum ranging from 58.1' to 58.8'. A (58.7' tan Hs) correction to the Moon's sighted height would be either added to that height, or subtracted from the precomputed height. The 1937 Nautical Almanac tabulated hourly Moon coordinates. Sincerely, Mark Prange ======================================================================== Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2008 08:23:07 From: Mark Prange Subject: Re: Moon shots My mistake--I meant cosine, not tangent: 58.7'cos Hs ======================================================================== Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2008 17:10:17 From: Gary LaPook Subject: Re: Moon shots This is an excerpt from the current U.S. Air Force Navigation Manual, AFPAM 11-216. gl 13.8. Parallax Error. Parallax in altitude is the difference between the altitude of a body above a bubble horizon at the surface of the earth and its calculated altitude above the celestial horizon at the center of the earth. All Hcs are given for the center of the earth. If the light rays reaching the earth from a celestial body are parallel, the body has the same altitude at both the center and the surface of the earth. For most celestial bodies, parallax is negligible for purposes of navigation. 13.8.1. Parallax Correction for the Moon. The moon is so close to the earth that its light rays are not parallel. The parallax of the moon may be as great as 60'; thus, when observing the moon, a parallax correction must be applied to the Hs. This correction is always positive (+) and varies with the altitude and with the distance of the moon from the earth. The correction varies from day to day because the distance of the moon from the earth varies. Corrections for the moon's parallax in altitude are given on the daily pages of the Air Almanac and are always added, algebraically, to sextant altitudes. The values of parallax for negative altitudes are obtained from the Air Almanac for the equivalent positive altitudes. ======================================================================== Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2008 17:10:41 From: Gary LaPook Subject: Re: Moon shots The problem with shooting the moon is caused by its phase. Except for the one day a month when the moon is full, the image of the moon is not perfectly round and it is difficult to judge its exact center. When the moon is full you can center the moon in the bubble of the sextant just like a sun sight or a star sight and get an accurate reading. When it is not full it is not easy to estimate its center in the bubble, leading to an unknowable error. Surface navigators using marine sextants line up either the lower or the upper limb of the moon with the horizon and then make a semidiameter correction to correct that reading to what would be the center of the moon just like when shooting the sun. (No semidiameter correction is applied when using a bubble sextant since you are already measuring the altitude to the center.) The semidiameter correction is listed for each day of the month in the Moon and Sun columns of the Nautical Almanac, and varies from about 15' to 16'. The moon and the planets move to the west at rates that differ from the sun and the stars but this does not cause any problem with accuracy of these type of sights. All that is required is to make an additional correction for "delta v" using the interpolation table in the Nautical Almanac and add this correction to the Greenwich Hour Angle to get the accurate G.H.A. of the planet or the Moon. The "delta v" is tabulated in the Nautical Almanac for each day for all the planets and for the Moon. This involves one additional step in the almanac and all navigators are trained how to do this. In the Nautical Almanac the positions of the planets, sun, moon and stars are tabulated for each hour and the most you have to interpolate for is 59 minutes and 59 seconds. If one were to forget to apply the "delta v" correction, the maximum error would be limited to the magnitude of the tabulated "delta v" correction which is the change in one hour. For example, the "delta v" for Mars today is 2.6' meaning that if the sight were taken at 59 minutes and 59 seconds after the hour the maximum error would be 2.6' minutes in longitude or about 2.6 nautical miles. If the sight were taken on the half hour the maximum error would only be half of that, 1.3 NM. This 2.6' "delta v" is close to the maximum value for any "delta v" for a planet. Today's "delta v" for the Moon is 15.9' so a much larger error is possible if a navigator forgot to apply it to a Moon sight sight when using the Nautical Almanac. If using the American Air Almanac these errors are eliminated since the actual position of all celestial bodies are tabulated at ten minute intervals and the usual procedure is to take the sights exactly on the ten minute points so no interpolations are required. Even if a different time is used the maximum error from ignoring "delta v" is only one sixth of that when using the Nautical Almanac since the time tabulations are one sixth of an hour, ten minutes, apart. From convenience considerations, the easiest fix to take is one using just stars since the tables are designed to make this computation the shortest possible and when using H.O 249 volume one all star computations for the fix can be done in one glance at one line of the tables. Shooting the planets, the Moon or the Sun require a different computation for each body including the "delta v" correction for the Moon and planets and the "parallax in altitude" correction for the Moon. If all or these steps are done then, except for the non full moon with a bubble sextant case described above, the positions determined should be equally accurate. The only reason one would ever shoot the moon is if it were the only body available such as in daylight hours. This is why the Sun is observed during the day too. This goes for the planets also since they are bright they may be visible close to sunrise or sun set before the stars are available. But at night stars are the choice, not because of accuracy but due to convenience. gl ======================================================================== Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2008 17:53:53 From: Gary LaPook Subject: Re: Moon shots I probably should not have used the term "unknowable error" in estimating the center of the Moon in the bubble in the first paragraph of my last post because the magnitude of the error is limited to about 15' and is unlikely to approach this value. This is because the diameter of the Moon is about 30' so the edge of the Moon is about 15' from the center. To have an error approaching 15' the navigator would have to have placed the lower or upper limb (edge) of the Moon in the center of the bubble instead of the estimated center of the Moon and it is quite unlikely that a navigator would not recognize this situation. The more likely size of this centering error is about 3 to 6 minutes of arc resulting in the LOP being in error by 3 to 6 NM.