Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 10:17:20 EST From: Woody Subject: Searching for engines Ric, 1340 engines have aluminum blocks, cast iron cylinders and cylinder heads and a large cast or forged crankshaft and connecting rods.Over 300 lbs of ferrous metal with a 51" diameter. I have been to geometrics in San Jose and tested their equipment. Those engines have a large and distinctive magnetic signature. Somewhere on Taroa there are 7 crated Zero engines that the Strategic Bombing Survey Team of 1946 buried in a trench. I thought it would be interesting to look for them when I go back out there next year as I have a general idea as to where they are interred. A B-29 would leave a much larger debris field behind, they have a 141' wingspan, four 28 cylinder radials and weighed many thousands of pounds. Not a good comparison. There are several B-29s in the water off the coasts of Saipan, Iwo Jima and Guam that were water ditched during WW2- they are relatively intact. Woody ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 10:19:11 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: What should be done >I'm not hearing what you think should be done instead or next that >is feasible. I probably read too quickly and missed that. The real >important thing is to keep firing away so something foolish is not done >or something wise is not over looked. I think there is no shortage of >that from Forumites'... >Alan, in good nature Perhaps I'm simply too dull witted to grasp the import of the above comments... however, I believe I have rather _clearly_ & _unambiguously_ suggested that the NEXT step should be a deep-water, _visual_ search of the ocean bottom, off the outer edge of the reef-flat, through the use of a state-of-the-Art, submersible vehicle (possibly like the one that just recently, clearly photographed a gigantic, (20') spider-like squid, almost three miles below the ocean surface). Admittedly, I make _no_ claim of any intimate knowledge of/or expertise in the field of Oceanography, & I haven't the faintest idea how much such a venture would cost (though like all underwater, scientific expeditions, I imagine the cost would be substantially more than any _single_ trip to further explore & excavate Gardner/Nikumaroro Island)... yet it would seem (to me anyway) that such a venture _could_ very well produce the desired result, which I originally thought we were all seeking, _proof_ that the Electra & it's crew did, in fact, reach Gardner/Nikumaroro Island in July 1937. If the Niku hypothsis... that the aircraft _was_ washed-off the outer edge of the reef-flat, by 'normal' tidal & surf/wave-wash action, within the first week from touch-down... is accurate, then at _least_ those two P & W engines _should_ still be sitting there on the ocean bottom, given the depth of the water into which they were plunged... if the engines _are_ found in this manner, the Niku hypothesis is indeed _valid_ & continued, more intensive & extensive archeaologic excavation of the island is completely justified. If the engines are _not_ found on the ocean bottom, you are still left with a _choice_ of continuing the Niku archeaologic project, on the island, in the _belief_ that those engines &/or other aircraft related remains have been 'buried' by over 60+ years of ocean inundation of the island, (no volcanoes on Niku, that I know of) within the vegetation lines of the island... or ... concede that AE/FN &/or the Electra never reached the island. In one of his latest post responses, I believe Ric _did_ accede/concede that such a deep water, visual examination of the ocean bottom, at the outer edge of the reef-flat, was 'feasible'... but cautioned that the cost of such a project might be too high for TIGHAR's budget to finance. ( I trust Ric will promptly correct me, if I've inadverently, misinterpreted his remarks on this subject.) I'm really sorry if I previously failed to make myself sufficiently clear on these points, I promise I'll try to do better next time ! Don N. (In all good nature!) ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 10:23:55 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: Amelia Earhart recreation, March of Time, July 8,1937 Forwarded to the Forum >I am a senior Earhart researcher for Electra GRoup. We have been trying >for over a year to find someone that has the script or the tape of this >famous broadcast that was heard in Hawii and throughout the United States >on all of the major networks. So far no luck. >It is significant in the Earhart research to compare the script with the >so called post loss messages that may have been a hoax. That broadcast date copy supposedly does not exist - at least in circulation. Since this was a CBS program at that time (it moved to the NBC Blue network later that year), it most likely does not exist in the Library of Congress (and does not show up in their archive lists). Your best bet would be to contact the CBS Radio Archives in New York City. You can get their contact information via the LOC at (202)707-7833 (I don't have it handy). However, don't get your hopes up that CBS would have it. They failed to maintain their archive of non-news material as NBC did. While much of CBS news material remains available, it is mostly through the Milo Ryan Phonoarchive, which now resides at the National Archives. However, since the March of Time was a sponsored program technically non-news, most likely it does not exist at the National Archives. I have done a search of the various vendors who trade and sell radio of the past, and cannot find any who carry that episode. My reference material indicates, as I said, that it does not exist in active circulation, and most likely does not exist at all. If the scripts exist, CBS would be your best starting point. If the show had been on NBC by that time (which it was not), then I know a copy of the script would exist at the LOC. **************************************************************************** From Ric In the absence of a transcript of the show, it might be instructive to see if other March of Time episodes followed a set format and see whether that format ressembles any of the alleged post-loss Earhart transmissions - especially Betty's Notebook. What is the "Electra Group"? ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 10:51:30 EST From: Ric Subject: What I did on my Xmas vacation Everyone who is waiting for their Aerial Tour of Nikumaroro video and everyone who is wondering whether they should order one will be interested to know that, rather than just dub off the silent 23 minutes of footage shot from the helicopter, we decided to produce a real Research Video that traces the history of attempts to map the island and provides explanations during the aerial tour so that you'll know what you're looking at. To do that we needed to expand our computer capabilities here at TIGHAR Central and yours truly needed to scale the learning curve of using the video editing software. It has been something of an adventure, and like most adventures, it has taken longer and cost more than we anticipated. Nonetheless, the summit is in sight and I'm hoping to finish it up this week. Tapes should go out FedEx next week. If this little production is well received it will be the first in a series of "TIGHAR Research Videos". The next in the series will be "The Niku IIII Expedition" and the Aerial Tour video includes a "trailer" for that coming attraction. Maybe we'll throw in a packet of microwavable popcorn. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 10:52:47 EST From: Marty Moleski Subject: Re: Amelia Earhart recreation, March of Time, July 8,1937 Forwarded to the Forum by Ron Bright > Your best bet would be to contact the CBS Radio Archives in New York > City. I called them over a year ago. They wouldn't tell me whether they had the tape or not. To get into their archives, I think you have to be a CBS insider. You may also have to pay for play. > I have done a search of the various vendors who trade and sell radio of the > past, and cannot find any who carry that episode. I found a man who said he knows a man who has a tape or maybe even a wax recording. But the man who says he knows the man doesn't respond to my mail or e-mails. I called him once and had a very nice talk with him, but he was a friend of Fred Goerner (spelling?) and may be reluctant to deal with TIGHAR. Contact info: Ronald Staley http://www.quikscrybe.com/catalog.html Quikscrybe 5632 Van Nuys Blvd. Suite #10 Van Nuys, CA 91401 E-Mail: quikscrybe@earthlink.net Tape 020. The March of Time; 7 8 37; "Features Story on Disappearance of Amelia Earhart." 7 15 37; "Second Story on Earhart Disappearance." I keep hoping that someone in California--or someone with the gift of persuasion--will make progress where I couldn't. Marty #2359 ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 09:20:01 EST From: Randy Jacobson Subject: Re: What should be done There's a third possibility of an off-shore search: the plane and/or engine wreckage has been buried by coral debris, and was not found by underwater ROV's. This is quite a real possibility. So what then? ************************************************************************ From Ric Good question. That's one reason we've concentrated on the onshore search for something that would link the castaway(s) conclusively to the Earhart disappearance. The onshore environment is tough but the underwater environment is tougher, and at least onshore we now have a confirmed archaeological site that is producing interesting (one might even say promising) artifacts. *************************************************************************** From Pete I suggest that for the time being we continue to collect and evaluate information on what is already on hand. Discovering the true identity of the artifacts from Niku IIII, finding the source of the green construction material, assembling the post-loss radio matrix, studying the known movement of NC wreckage to narrow future search areas, etc. Someone's skeleton was found on Niku and examined by Dr. Hoodless, someone brought the sextant box to Niku, someone made the "g" from the coral. I think the "Seven Site" holds many more clues. Searching the ocean bottom sounds great, but for all I know, the artifacts needed to fill the air with gunsmoke are underneath the stern section of NC and sand. LTM Pete #2419 **************************************************************************** From Ric I'm with you Pete. I think there is a great impatience to search someplace new for the Holy Grail that must surely be lurking there rather than slog through the detective work. All this talk about smoking guns (and, I confess, my own longing for an Any Idiot Artifact) has obscured the very real progress we've made toward solving the mystery of the castaway of Gardner Island - which may very well turn out to be the solution of the Earhart mystery. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 09:20:44 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: Re: Amelia Earhart recreation, March of Time, July 8,1937 Thanks Marty Moleski for the information about a possible lead to the elusive March of Time broadcast. Hard to believe but noone seems to have it. It supposedly was a heck of a re-creation of the final moments. I shall try your leads. Ron Bright ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 09:50:33 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: What should be done No, you're not dull witted at all, Don. I read your suggestions and agree whole heartedly that would be a great next step but when I attached "feasible" to my comment I meant something TIGHAR could do. Certainly it is feasible in terms of the technical possibility but I didn't think it was feasible in terms of ever getting the money to do it. We were just looking at feasible in different definitions. I'm not sure TIGHAR has exhausted other and far less expensive investigations. By that I mean I'm not convinced the plane wasn't smashed up into the "jungle" and over 64 years buried there. I've not been there so maybe the guys who have can assure me that's not possible. Also it seems that if the plane DID land there and washed out to sea there could well be pieces left on the island not yet found. Or maybe already found but not identified. The ocean bottom of Florida has been extensively searched for Flight 19 and the planes have not been found but I think there is no doubt they are there. I'm not an expert or anywhere near one on what wave action and ocean currents could do to the Electra if it was washed out to sea 64 years ago. I suppose it never moved once on the bottom but maybe it ended up a considerable distance away from Niku before being covered to some unknown depth. Others may be able to answer this but my feeling is that the search area might be pretty extensive. Maybe you know about this better than I. Alan ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 09:51:31 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: Amelia Earhart recreation, March of Time, July 8,1937 Marty, my son is a CBS video news editor in Houston at KHOU. Is this something he might take a crack at finding? Alan ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 09:56:47 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: What I did on my Xmas vacation Ric, that sounds even better. I'm sure we will all be patient. While I'm emailing I want to thank you and all the members for making this forum and our investigation so phenomenally good. At times we sometimes get a bit touchy with each other but all in all it somehow works out. I think we all generally agree on the direction TIGHAR is going and support the group 100% or nearly so. In particular you have shown a lot of patience with some of our meandering off topic and suggestions of other theories. The latter you shoot down rather quickly sometimes without considering they might have some merit. For example the New Britain "crash" got little support from you yet you never considered the possibility AE, after missing Howland, may have climbed up to 30,000 or so, cut the engines and dead sticked back to New Brit.............. or maybe not. Seriously you have been overly kind to even some of the most preposterous suggestions. Wild ideas sometimes key a thought that might have genuine possibilities. Have a great 2002. Alan *************************************************************************** From Ric Well, the omens are good. The last palindromic year - 1991 - was a very good one for the project. Perhaps this one will be too. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 09:58:45 EST From: Greg Subject: CBS Archives Ric, regarding the pursuit of archived audio. I have a friend who has been working with some of the old CBS archive in New York. His job is to find classical program material that might be of commercial interest for rerelease. The conditions of much of the archive is deplorable. In one case not at CBS, he explained that historians are trying to locate major pieces of orchestral history that were given away to whomever wanted them. The part of the archive that he works with is now a part of Sony Music because Sony bought this a long time ago. It would seem to me that the first step in trying to find something would be to find out what happened to the category of material. Where was it stored, who was in charge of the library, was it tossed out, given away, transferred to Sony, etc? I know of one entire archive from a popular radio show in Minneapolis (not CBS) that was literally saved out of a dumpster and ended up in the basement of someone who felt it was worth saving. Another note is that playback of some of this old material is not simple. ie Tape that turns to dust on one pass so it needs very special care, or disks that are not standard in any way that need a technical fund to repair or build equipment to replay. Greg ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 09:33:20 EST From: Tom King Subject: Re: What should be done Let me throw in my two cents' worth with Ric and Pete. I'm really rather befuddled by the notion that we ought to charge off and spend lots of money looking someplace more or less new, whether it's deep off the reef or on some other island. We've got quite a lot of data to work with already, and quite a bit of work still to do on land, that will be a lot less expensive, and a lot more likely to yield something, than will diving off the reef looking for stuff that may be long gone or long encrusted in coral. Some things that BADLY need doing, SOON, are: 1. Track down survivors of the colony, notably in Funafuti (where we know there's one guy -- Emily Sikuli's brother -- who may have been in on the bones discovery) and in the Solomons (where there must be people who can tell us about what happened at the Seven Site in the '50s -- a crucial question for interpreting what we've found there. 2. Follow up a variety of leads in Fiji that might lead to the bones recovered in 1940, or to information about them. 3. Further work at the Seven Site -- notably at the two features, naturally found on last day of work there, that now appear most interesting -- the burn feature near where some of the most puzzling artifacts were found, and another about 10 meters away that contained glass and probably other material, but couldn't be examined in any detail at all. 4. Further work in the village, which is after all where all the airplane parts to date have been found. If the plane was ever on the island, even in pieces, it was in a whole lot better shape when the colonists were there to salvage stuff from it than it is now. We know they salvaged and used plane parts. Some of those parts, from the perhaps .05 percent of the village we've looked at closely, look a lot like Electra pieces. There could be whole batteries of smoking guns lurking under the palm fronds and rotting cocos in the village. TK ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 09:34:49 EST From: Tom King Subject: Vicarious pleasures A bit late for holiday giving, but recommended just the same, a CD of music from the Nai'a crew adrift off Nikumaroro is now available from Dan Zafir, one of our video crew on the 2001 expedition. Following is a slightly updated version of a note that Dan sent to other expeditionaries a couple of weeks ago. Having listened to the CD and relived a few starry nights rocking in the trade winds, I got Dan's agreement to make Forumites aware of it. It's the next best thing to being there -- other, perhaps, than Ric's forthcoming aerial epic. Tom King Beautiful Fijian music played aboard the expedition ship Nai'a during Niku 4 is now available on a digitally mastered CD with 16 tracks played by the wonderful trio of Toga, Maika and Mo. Originally, I recorded the music for myself as it would have been hard to resist capturing the soothing quality of this island music performed with such competence by the three guys. They follow in the Fijian tradition of nightly gathering of song, a mix of traditional and current music from Fiji which they seek out and practice to near perfection. I certainly wanted to share this recording and it occurred to me that it could actually generate a modest sum for each of the guys. Although the recording actually belongs to me, the music does not, and I certainly want all the money to go to Toga, Maika and Mo, three members of the ship's crew who were generous enough to let us spend many a night of song together. The recording, mastering and distribution for this CD was done as a contribution. Only 1 dollar of each sale will go to cover expenses for raw materials. Don't miss the opportunity to get a truly unique recording and do good at the same time! "Songs from the Bow" contains 16 (DDD) tracks of great sounding stereo recording captured under the giant night sky at Niku. The CD sells for $15.00 plus $5 for Priority shipping. Since I'll soon be moving to Europe for awhile and Mark Smith (The other half of the video team -- TK) will probably take over for me, so inquiries about exactly where to send checks and how to make them out should be posted to my account at. Dan ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 09:38:21 EST From: Chris Strohmeyer Subject: March of Time Ric, I'm still waiting for a followup answer from Quikscrybe. Doesn't this first reply imply that the recording exists? It also sounds like a brush-off too. Sort of curious. What do you think? Chris in Petaluma #2511 From: "Sue Staley" To: "Chris Strohmeyer" Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2002 2:44 PM Subject: Re: Amelia Earhart Disappearance > Hi: > > I have withdrawn the recording from the list, because of some editing > problems. I have no idea when it shall be re-added. > > thanks for your interest. > > ron *************************************************************************** From Ric Sure sounds like it exists. I can understand "withdrawing it from the list" if "editing problems" make it unacceptable as a sales item, but our interest is research, not nostalgia. Perhaps if you explained that to her ....... ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 09:47:17 EST From: Mike E. the Radio Historian Subject: Re: CBS Archives >Another note is that playback of some >of this old material is not simple. ie Tape that turns to dust on one pass >so it needs very special care, or disks that are not standard in any way >that need a technical fund to repair or build equipment to replay. This is indeed correct. Many Golden Age radio programs were recorded on 16-inch discs, either aluminum, acetate or even wax. Many were "start inside" rather than the common "start outside" system many of us are familiar with. There were two ways of cutting discs: one was the familiar side-to-side groove that survived till the end of the disc age in the 80s; the other was up-and-down. 16-inch turntables of the type used in commercial radio stations are available used, not exactly cheap, but they can be had. Indeed, most radio stations used 16s rather than 12s because the speed regulation, and mechanical vibration, was much less than on a 12. The tone arm on a 16-inch table is not tied to any kind of mechanical linkage or "changer" so it will track from inside or outside... however, finding a phono-pickup nowdays which will respond to up-and-down grooving is a REAL challenge. Old audio tape is VERY unstable and should be treated with great care. As an aside: older computer disks like 5-1/4s are showing some of the same problems, only sooner. Audio tape, by the way, was invented in Gernamy... used by the Nazis in WW2 to keep people guessing about the exact whereabouts of The Paperhanger, for one thing... only made it to the US in 1946. LTM (who wishes more vintage LPs were available on CD) and 73 Mike E. ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 09:53:16 EST From: Bob Sherman Subject: B-29 ENGINES [from Woody .. ] > A B-29 would leave a much larger debris field behind, they have ... > four 28 cylinder radials ... " Believe the B-29 had 18 cyl. Wright R-3350's The only 28 cyl. engine was the P&W R-4360 In any event, the Titanic iron was greater than the total of all the B-29's built. RC ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 09:53:49 EST From: Marty Moleski Subject: Re: Amelia Earhart recreation, March of Time, July 8,1937 > From Alan Caldwell > > Marty, my son is a CBS video news editor in Houston at KHOU. Is this > something he might take a crack at finding? Yes, he is a perfect person to try to open the archives. If he doesn't know how to do it, he should know someone who does. :o) Marty ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 09:57:37 EST From: Stuart Subject: Palindromes > The last palindromic year - 1991 - was a very good > one for the project. Perhaps this one will be too. Let's hope we don't have to wait for the NEXT one to get the final answer! Stuart ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 5 Jan 2002 08:56:03 EST From: Anthony Lealand Subject: Recovering degraded photo images The November "Laser focus world" has an article on the recovery of images from degraded photos. The Work was done at Research Support Instruments Lanham MD, the Naval Research Lab and the Catholic University of America both of Washington DC. The work is described as simple to execute and does not need the original optics as a reference. They give an example of an early sick Hubble photo reconstructed. This could well have application to the photo of the plane in the jungle which is an intriguing is it or isn't it shot. Regards Anthony Lealand New Zealand **************************************************************************** From Ric That photo has a rich history of hi-tech examination. When we first came across it 12 years ago the National Photo Interprestation Center - aka NPIC - (the photo interpretation arm of the CIA) took a crack at it. Then in the mid-1990s Jeff Glickman of Photek applied his skills to it. I think we've probably seen what there is to see. ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 5 Jan 2002 08:59:28 EST From: Chris Strohmeyer Subject: March of Time Ric, this is what I sent 2 days ago with no reply, guess they just don't want to deal with it. I had already told them I was with an organization researching Earhart's disappearance. Chris in Petaluma #2511 ----- Original Message ----- From: "Chris Strohmeyer" To: "Sue Staley" Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2002 5:03 PM Subject: Re: Amelia Earhart Disappearance > Ron, You were somewhat vague in your reply, does that mean that the actual > recordings exist and are or will be available? Do you have access to them or > know who I might contact to get them?? This is VERY important to us. Thank > you for your help! We would like the recordings in any form. > Chris in Petaluma, Ca. ************************************************************************** From Ric It's very frustrating, I know. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 10:00:54 EST From: Tom King Subject: Re: Recovering degraded photo images > I think we've > probably seen what there is to see. Maybe, but the technique might be worth applying to some of our other imagery, like the early airphotos. Here's the URL for the article Anthony referred to: http://lfw.pennwellnet.com/Articles/Article_Display.cfm?Section=Archives& Subsection=Display&ARTICLE_ID=126937&KEYWORD=Degraded%20Photos TK *************************************************************************** From Ric I'll look into it. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 10:03:09 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Re: what should be done next >From Tom King > >4. Further work in the village, which is after all where all the >airplane parts to date have been found. If the plane was ever on the >island, even in pieces, it was in a whole lot better shape when the >colonists were there to salvage stuff from it than it is now. We know >they salvaged and used plane parts. Some of those parts, from the >perhaps .05 percent of the village we've looked at closely, look a lot >like Electra pieces. There could be whole batteries of smoking guns >lurking under the palm fronds and rotting cocos in the village'.... Maybe I've been missing some new findings or interpretations of the original, existing findings... but if my memory is anywhere near accurate, _none_ of the 'parts' definitely identified/certified as having originated from aircraft, have ever been documented ( opposed to 'speculated') as having come from an Electra, let alone THE Electra? I'm not certain what type of 'smoking-guns' might be left to discover on the village site... but I'm sure even Dr. King would agree that the most readily identifiable aircraft parts to have survived intact, after 60+ years, (most capable of establishing clear proof that AE/FN _did_ reach Gardner/Nikumaroro) would be the twin P & W engines... & I think he would also agree, it is highly unlikely such 'artifacts' will ever be found 'lurking' under the palm fronds or cocos of the village! Are these 'artifacts' of a successful landing of the Electra to be found anywhere else on the island?... After several highly successful TIGHAR expeditions, (covering the most obvious areas to be searched) have failed to discover the engines... it would seem (to me anyway) that chances of finding them anywhere else _on_ the island now, would be highly unlikely . Since TIGHAR's _own_ hypothesis has concluded that the Electra was swept off the reef-flat, within a week of initial touchdown, would it not seem likely (logical) that since those engines haven't turned up in any of the most obvious places searched by TIGHAR expeditions _on_ the island... that _visually_ searching the waters of the deep drop-off, at the edge of the reef-flat, would be the next most likely spot to seek recovery of such engines... recovery of which would obviously, instantly validate the entire TIGHAR hypothesis & all the tedious, painstaking archealogical efforts of all the past TIGHAR efforts ? Don Neumann ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 10:04:06 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: Re: March of Time For Chris Stohmeyer, I too called and emailed the scrybe and to date no results. The telephone as ansered by someone who coulld only speak Spanish. I tracking down some sources that Cam Warren came up with on the history of the March of Time broadcasts from 1935 to 1951. You might help by looking at this book: Raymond Fielding, "The March of Time": 1935-51," Oxford Press, 1978. I shall try the others. Ron Bright ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 10:07:40 EST From: Jon Watson Subject: Re: Recovering degraded photo images But what about the guy in the gorilla suit? Don't I recall correctly that you once said that someone saw a guy in a gorilla suit somewhere in the background? You weren't pulling our ...... naw, you wouldn't do that! ltm jon *************************************************************************** From Ric No joke. That actually happened. If you blow up that photo big enough and hold your mouth just right you can see a guy in a gorilla suit. A couple of stiff drinks also sharpens the enhanced image. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 10:18:16 EST From: M. Horak Subject: Re: B-29 ENGINES Yes, B-29s had 18 cyl. R-3350s. But one was fitted with the R-4360s. See http://www.csd.uwo.ca/~pettypi/elevon/baugher_us/b029-04.html Also, while the R-4360 may have been the only 28 cylinder radial, the Wright Tornado was 42 cylinder liquid cooled radial. A fascinating book about it ("Tornado") has just been released -- see http://www.weakforcepress.com/ I should mention that I only know about such things thanks to my participation in CompuServe's Aviation Forum (Avsig). -mh ************************************************************************** From Ric Impressive as they are, these monster engines are off-topic to our investigation. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 10:19:21 EST From: Mike Holt Subject: Re: March of Time > From Ron Bright > I too called and emailed the scrybe and to date no results. The telephone as > ansered by someone who coulld only speak Spanish. I tracking down some > sources that Cam Warren came up with on the history of the March of Time > broadcasts from 1935 to 1951. What else was in the broadcast that day? Would it help if whomever is recieving these requests thought that Amelia was not the real objective of the interest? Mike Holt ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 10:50:36 EST From: Tom King Subject: Re: what should be done next For Don Neumann -- Maybe it's just the nitpicky archeologist in me, Don, but I prefer the tedious gathering of little bits of data, guided by a reasonable hypothesis with test implications, eventually reaching a responsible probabilistic conclusion, to going for broke looking for a single smoking gun. It's true that we don't have definitive, absolutely-Electra pieces from the village, but we've also only looked at a tiny portion of the village in the detail necessary to find such pieces. If the villagers were salvaging stuff from the wreck, they were doing so when it was a whole lot less wrecked than it is now, when there were likely to have been a lot more smoking guns lying around. So I think that more work in the village -- which would be a lot less costly, I suspect, than deep diving off the reef -- would be very much worth doing. TK ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 10:52:23 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: Re: March of Time For Chris S. I contacted Fielding but was only an expert in the MOT film history , not radio broadcast. So no need to call Dr. Raymond Fielding. Ron B ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 10:58:08 EST From: Ric Subject: Re: March of Time The following is an excerpt from an email received by Ron Bright and posted here with his permission. It's a rather impressive list of possible sources for old radio shows. If someone on the forum wants to tackle the job of trying to track down a recording or transcript of the Earhart March of Time broadcasts, this list is a real leg up. ***************************************** The best source for such things, a book called RERUNS ON FILE: A GUIDE TO ELECTRONIC MEDIA ARCHIVES (by the same Don Godfrey, 1992) lists five sources for "March of Time" programs. One (the UCLA Film & Television Archive) deals almost exclusively with visual records from 1947 on. Another, the "North American Radio Archives Cassette Lending Library" in Elmwood, OH (216.226.8189), has only a handful of recordings from the 1930s. The "Radio Closet" in Freeport, IL (815.235.3753) is listed as having something from MOT, but is not all that big a collection, and they may be difficult to access, since this is operated out of a private home. Probably the best source is SPERDVAC--The Society to Preserve and Encourage Radio Drama, Variety, and Comedy, POBox 7171, Van Nuys, CA 91409-9712, 213.947.9800. It is a big collection! They also have a number (7000+) of scripts of various programs. The Motion Picture, Broadcasting and Recorded Sound Division of the Library of Congress is another possibility: James Madison Building, 101 Independence Ave., SE, Washington, DC 20540-4690. They now possess the March of Time Stock Film Library, but you want radio rather than TV. Next most likely to have what you want is the National Archives: Motion Picture, Sound and Video Unit, Special Media Archives Division, National Archives and Records Administration, Archives II, 8601 Adelphi Road, College Park, MD 20740-6001, 301.713,6800. (The Archives now also has the Milo Ryan (KIRO-CBS) Collection, mostly from WWII). The Library of American Broadcasting (formerly the Broadcast Pioneers Library) at the University of Maryland has some program material, but this isn't its central focus. 301.405.9160. A good university collection, but not likely to contain all of a given program, is the Radio Archive of the University of Memphis. 901.678.3174; There is an American Archive of Broadcasting in the Thousand Oaks (CA) Library, which has a great deal of material that they are working hard to organize, mostly by name of radio stars (who contributed much of the collection). 905.449.2660. They have an online catalog that can be accessed at Don't overlook, if the foregoing don't have what you need, the Museum of Television and Radio in both New York (212.621.6600) and Beverly Hills (310.786.1000) or the Museum of Broadcast Communications in Chicago (312.629.6000). (I have URLs for these, and others, if you need them--but for a specialized request like yours, I suspect that the telephone will get more action.) Chris Sterling, my co-author of STAY TUNED: A HISTORY OF AMERICAN BROADCASTING, suggested that you may wish to contact Prof. Marvin Bensman at the University of Memphis (see above), whose e-mail address, logically enough, is and Prof. Larry Lichty at Northwestern (). Both of these scholars have all sorts of information rattling around in their minds and their files. You may also wish to look up the names of the producers, directors, actors, etc. on MOT in the new (1998) edition of John Dunning's THE ENCYCLOPEDIA OF OLD-TIME RADIO and see if they (or their heirs) have scripts. Much of the material in the older files of CBS was (shame!) dumped into the Staten Island landfill some years ago. The likelihood that the sponsor (Electrolux refrigerators, probably in Stamford, CT for the period October 14, 1936-October 7, 1937--but the surviving vacuum cleaner business recently was sold again) has files shouldn't be completely discounted. (TIME didn't start as a sponsor until late 1938). Even more likely, if the firm still exists (I don't have the energy or the resources to check) would be the Batten, Barton, Durstine and Osborne advertising agency. NOTE: the program moved from CBS to the (NBC) Blue Network in October 1937. FYI, Dunning lists Earhart five times in its index--four to interviews on variety programs before her ill-fated final flight, and one for a 1946 program called "Honored Flights." That's about all I can come up with at the moment, and I hope that you will be able to obtain a copy of the script or a recording from one of the above sources. I don't pretend that this is a complete list of major repositories, but, as Claude Rains said in "Casablanca," they are the "usual suspects." Now for the second question: According to the first FCC Annual Report (1935), the Field Section of the Engineering Department had "jurisdiction over the activities of the 21 field districts and 2 independent monitoring stations; 1 at Grand Island, Nebr., and 1 at Great Lakes, Ill. Five other monitoring stations are operated in conjunction with headquarters offices, at Boston, Baltimore, Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Portland," [The Grand Island station was only closed down a couple of years ago.] In the sixth Annual Report (1940), the FCC reports that, as a national defense measure, "The Commission received $175,000 from Congress with which to relocate six of its seven main monitoring stations. These supplemental sums enabled the Commission to expand its field force and improve its 'listening posts' for more effective surveillance of radio channels." The enormous antennas at these posts enabled the FCC to take very accurate cross bearings on signals of interest (including ship or aircraft distress messages, if learned about early enough). (By the way, Howeth's HISTORY OF COMMUNICATIONS-ELECTRONICS IN THE U.S. NAVY didn't have Earhart's name in its index.) As for the possibility that someone else monitored her transmissions, I urge you to get in touch with the American Radio Relay League (the predominant amateur radio organization). I'd write to David Sumner, the ARRL's Executive Vice President, 225 Main Street, Newington, CT 06111-1494, and let him pass it along to whomever is the resident historian or archivist. Good luck with your project! (And don't forget to have something else lined up when you discover what happened to Amelia Earhart). Mike John Michael Kittross ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 9 Jan 2002 09:43:33 EST From: Chris Kennedy Subject: Going for broke Tom King writes: > I prefer the tedious gathering of little bits of data, guided by a reasonable > hypothesis with test implications, eventually reaching a responsible > probabilistic conclusion, to going for broke looking for a single smoking > gun. Why would an off-reef search be considered "going for broke"? --Chris Kennedy *************************************************************************** From Ric Let me see if I understand what Tom means (he has been preaching this sermon to me for years). We already have sites that are producing interesting artifacts that can be further developed with the expenditure of large amounts of hard labor rather than large quantities of hard cash. If we continue to archeologize (impliedly a new word) the Seven Site and the village, we WILL find more stuff. If a smoking gun turns up, so much the better, but in any event we'll get a clearer picture of what was going on at those sites. An off-reef search is not likely to turn up small pieces of the puzzle. It's the whole enchilada or nothing - and the cost of looking would mean convincing donors to "invest" (in an emotional sense) in the idea that the enchilada is down there. The bigger the investment, the bigger the let down if the hypothesis doesn't test out positively. Look at Mike Kammerer. In September of 2000 he was perfectly content to help fund an archaeological expedition that expected to find some good archaeological results that future expeditions could further investigate, but then the infamous anomaly in the satellite photo raised the possibility, and then the expectation, of a smoking gun discovery. When that didn't happen, Kammerer completely lost faith in the Niku hypothesis and decided that the airplane is on the bottom of the ocean. Go figure. We're really not looking for any further "sponsorship" from Mr. Kammerer anyway but the lesson is clear. Great expectations may get great press, but they also bring great disappointment if they don't pan out. For many, the fact that the hyped anomaly on the reef did not turn out to be Electra wreckage overshadowed the very real success at the Seven Site. The most important thing for this project is that it continue to show progress toward solving the Earhart mystery. We've done that for going-on fourteen years now and it's the only way to maintain and build the credibility that brings the public support that allows us to keep going. Raising and spending big bucks on attempts to find smoking guns at the expense of pursuing the solid leads we have is gambling with our credibility and can be literally "going for broke." LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 9 Jan 2002 10:10:27 EST From: Alexander Subject: Eyewitness redux I was browsing on the net, like you do, and i found this.... Maybe you have all seen it, maybe not, but i thought i would share it anyway. hope it makes the cut(as in not cut) alexander..... The disappearance of Amelia Earhart during her around-the-world flight attempt in July 1937 is unquestionably one of the greatest mysteries of the 20th century. When Earhart and her navigator, Fred Noonan, took off from Lae, New Guinea, in her twin-engine Lockheed Electra 10E on the morning of July 2, they planned to land on Howland Island, a tiny speck of land 2,556 miles to the east-northeast. Instead, Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan vanished into legend, myth and more than 60 years of hype and endless speculation. Despite a significant and ever-growing compilation of eyewitness accounts placing Earhart and Noonan on the Japanese-held island of Saipan in the months following their disappearance, the U.S. Navy's official position has never changed: "That at about 2300 [July 3] the plane landed on the sea to the northwest of Howland Island, within 120 miles of the island." The Navy's stance on Earhart's fate is patently false and without merit, as Thomas E. Devine's 1987 book, "EYEWITNESS: The Amelia Earhart Incident" clearly demonstrates. Since the publication of "EYEWITNESS," many other ex-GIs have come forward to testify to their knowledge of Earhart's presence on Saipan prior to the American invasion in June 1944. Their experiences as well as other new information relative to the truth about the Earhart "mystery" are chronicled in our book, "With Our Own Eyes: Eyewitnesses to the Final Days of Amelia Earhart." More than five decades of dedicated labor have brought Devine little more than the bleak realization that the facts surrounding the Earhart mystery will never be officially acknowledged by the U.S. government. His refusal to abandon hope despite overwhelming resistance is testimony to Devine's veracity and the worthiness of his cause. The purpose of this web site is to briefly introduce the facts surrounding the disappearance of Amelia Earhart to anyone interested. This is another sincere attempt to break through the avalanche of misinformation that continues to so effectively bury the truth that, to most Americans, "Amelia Earhart" is nothing more than a line of travel luggage or an outrageous headline in a tabloid newspaper. Alexander G in the uk **************************************************************************** From Ric Devine's 1987 book "Eyewitness: the Amelia Earhart Incident" is basically a chronicle of his unsuccessful attempts to find hard evidence to support his personal recollection of seeing Earhart's plane on Saipan in 1945. Since then, the Japanese Capture Theory that first became popular with Fred Goerner's 1966 bestseller "The Search For Amelia Earhart" has gradually receded from acceptance until now only a few diehards cling to the tale. Anecdotes from GI's who remember seeing Earhart evidence on Saipan are legion and it sounds like Devine has collected and published another batch. If he needs any more I've got a file about three inches thick. It's really pretty interesting because there is a definite formula to the stories: - The finder is always an enlisted man. - He discovers bones, a grave, papers, photos, you-name-it, that prove that Earhart was there and in Japanese custody. - He reports his discovery to an officer. - The officer confiscates the material and swears the GI to silence. - The material is never seen again (music up, fade to black). The one thing that all of these stories have in common is that there is never any hard evidence to support them. But then, as any good conspiracy buff can tell you, absence of evidence is proof of a coverup. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 9 Jan 2002 10:16:24 EST From: David Kelly Subject: Re: March of Time Maybe the last line of this email is very important - "Don't forget to have something else lined up....." We know Ric has already found the smoking gun and on his retirement we will all get an email saying he has found EA's electra sitting in his backyard, right next to the white dove, behind the stash of FW 109's found in the concrete bunkers...:) Regards David Kelly ************************************************************************** From Ric That would be AE's Electra and the White Bird. Yes, we're saving them and the FWs in case there is ever a time when we need to raise money. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 9 Jan 2002 10:17:53 EST From: Mike E. the Radio Historian Subject: Re: March of Time >As for the possibility that someone else monitored her transmissions, I >urge you to get in touch with the American Radio Relay League (the >predominant amateur radio organization). I'd write to David Sumner, the >ARRL's Executive Vice President, 225 Main Street, Newington, CT 06111-1494, >and let him pass it along to whomever is the resident historian or >archivist. All I can say is... Good Luck.... I tried querying the ARRL and got next to nowhere. Even though I am a member, and said as much in my queries, the answers I got ignored that fact, and treated me like something of a minor annoyance. All they are going to do is refer you to "QST" Magazine, which many large libraries have in bound voulmes. It is also available on CD-ROM. Been there/done that already. I have personally combed QST page by page, every single page, for the years 1936-37-38 and came up with NOTHING. The League had a somewhat myopic attitude toward entities like Earhart. The bottom line: SHE WAS NOT A HAM OPERATOR; she was using radio for a COMMERCIAL PURPOSE, which to the League was "Anathema" in those days... even though some hams may have been involved with her, QST never printed (and probably never would have printed, anyway) a word about it. And as far as I could tell, the ARRL has no "resident historian" or "archivist." I have been through several other period radio magazines, and come up with nothing we did not already know. I still need to check "Radio" magazine, to which I was given a great link last summer but just have not had the time to pursue it... but I will get there. I believe this publication would be the most promising source. LTM (who reads all the fine print, without rose colored glasses) and 73 Mike E. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 9 Jan 2002 10:37:02 EST From: Tom Van Hare Subject: Re: March of Time In this last post talking about the March of Time, I noted the following item: "Even more likely, if the firm still exists (I don't have the energy or the resources to check) would be the Batten, Barton, Durstine and Osborne advertising agency." Ok, as a former CEO of a design firm, I am quite very familiar with this name, though it is not generally spoken that way -- Batten, Barton, Durstine and Osborne is now known and has been known since probably the 1940s as BBDO. The firm is the Agency of Record for many large global firms, such as VISA, Wrigley, Texaco, BT, Bayer, Campbells, Daimler-Chrysler, GE, FedEx, Gillette, Pepsi, Pizza Hut, and many more.... In short, this is VERY BIG LEAGUE. The full contact information is as follows: ------------------------------------------ BBDO Worldwide http://www.bbdo.com/ 1285 Avenue of the Americas New York, NY 10019 United States Phone: 212-459-5000 New Business / Client Information: jerry.roberts@bbdo.com Public / Corporate / Press Relations: adrienne.sarro@bbdo.com Worldwide: elizabeth.wilkinson@bbdo.com Human Resources: jeff.sautter@bbdo.com Note: I would start with Adrienne Sarro, in that being in PR, she might see some potential in the relationship with TIGHAR. The likelihood of BBDO North America having files as old as the 1930s (in audio tape!) is very limited, but you never know. One aspect to consider prior to making a contact would be whether the contact with this HUGE firm (and I mean HUGE, it is one of the largest global ad firms) could be used as a possible new relationship for TIGHAR -- it might be good PR for the firm to sponsor part of the program and a firm of this scale, with this level of activity may well take any good opportunity to get its name out there -- also, you never know what aviation connections there may be in senior management. Just a thought -- my regrets that I don't have time to contact this one myself, so in writing this, I am passing it on to someone else. I would, however, recommend that the contact be made very carefully and with coordination through Ric, in that it may, if managed correctly, have potential involvement in support far beyond just answering the question as to whether the BBDO archives have copies of the old audio tapes. Thomas Van Hare ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 9 Jan 2002 10:40:50 EST From: Chris Subject: Re: March of Time Have you read the comment by the Commandant of the fourteenth Naval District in the U.S. Navy Report of the Search for Amelia Earhart dated July 2-18 1937? page 8, paragraph 5, "The experience in false messages, interference, and confusion on critical frequencies indicates the need for some provision for authoritative control of such frequencies in emergency. Obviously, such realistic radio programs as the March of Time should not be broadcast when they may effect relief measures in progress." Ric, you said that Betty had zero chance of hearing the MOT broadcasts because their format was all wrong. What did you mean? Chris in Petaluma #2511 (Where is everyone on the forum?) *************************************************************************** From Ric I didn't say that Betty had zero chance of HEARING the MoT broadcast. Clearly she could have. But the CONTENT of Betty's notes of what she heard does not seem to fit the format used in March of Time dramatizations. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 9 Jan 2002 11:07:33 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: What should be done >From Tom King > >I prefer the tedious gathering of little bits of data, guided by a reasonable >hypothesis with test implications, eventually reaching a responsible >probabilistic conclusion, to going for broke looking for a single smoking >gun Perhaps I could agree with Dr. King _if_ there was no _other_ reasonable, testable hypothesis, that _might_ also reach a responsible, possibly _conclusive_ determination as to the _fact_ that AE/FN's Electra _did_ actually fly to & land upon Gardner/Nikumaroro Island... After all, TIGHAR's own hypothesis includes the scenario that the Electra was swept off the reef-flat, into the deep-water abyss, off the outer edge of the reef-flat... within a week of it's initial touchdown... following a successful, wheels-down landing. Given such an assumption, would it not seem most likely that the Electra's engines, the heaviest 'artifacts' likely to have survived being 'deep-sixed' off the reef's edge... are to be found at the bottom of the ocean, in fairly close proximity to the reef, rather than lying somewhere else _on_ the Island or elsewhere in the middle of the Central Pacific?... And would not finding those engines leave not a single doubt in anyone's mind as to the valid proving of TIGHAR's Gardner/Nikumaroro hypothesis? The technology & the vehicle to perform such a mission exist... In Search of Amelia Earhart Address:http://www.insearchofamelia.com/ Would it be costly to mount such an expedition?... Indeed it would, however adding-up the cummulative costs of the four TIGHAR expeditions to date, (which, though no doubt successful from an archeological standpoint, have failed the test of TIGHAR's _original_ premise... locating & protecting the integrity of the Electra's remains & of it's crew _on_ Gardner/Nikumaroro Island)... they probably would have approximated the cost of a deep-water, 'visual' search of the waters adjacent to the reef. Since Ric G. has already suggested that the 'deep-water' expeditions that currenty are being scheduled, are looking in the _wrong_ part of the Central Pacific... it's too bad that such an expedition cannot be directed to the _one_ location where the TIGHAR hypothesis insists the Electra _is_ located! >If the villagers were salvaging >stuff from the wreck, they were doing so when it was a whole lot less wrecked >than it is now, when there were likely to have been a lot more smoking guns >lying around. So I think that more work in the village -- which would >be a lot less costly, I suspect, than deep diving off the reef -- would be very much worth doing'... While I must concede the point that earlier settlers, island residents, visitors &/or cast-aways, no doubt could & did find & put to practical utilization, far more salvageable items than have turned up to-date... none of the TIGHAR expeditions so far have been able to make any direct connection between the 'artifacts' that have been uncovered & anything that may have originated with or from the Electra or it's crew... raising honest questions as to how many additional, land-locked expeditions (& at what cost) are going to be required to locate those elusive bits & pieces of the Electra or it's crew, that _might_ create a preponderence of probably _inconclusive_ evidence... as already conceded by Dr. King in his opening paragraph ? Don Neumann ************************************************************************* From Ric Why is it that it always seems to be the folks who have never contributed a nickel who are full of advice about how much money we should raise and how we should spend it? ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 9 Jan 2002 11:21:48 EST From: Mike E. the Radio Historian Subject: ARRL again I forgot to mention this, which was interesting, re the ARRL; and the one exception to their "official" replies to me, because it was not really an official communication: A couple of years ago, one of my queries was answered by Zack Lau, ham call W1VT, who is a staffer at ARRL Hqs. Mr. Lau is a descendent of Harry Lau who was the US Army Signal Corps liaison (?) officer on Howland in July 1937= (the US Army Air Corps also sent an officer, a Lieut. Cooper). He directed me to David Lau in Honolulu, a grandson of Harry Lau. I exchanged a couple of e-mails with David, who told me that Yat Fai Lum, the ham operator on Howland at the time, was still alive in Honolulu, but I was never able to contact Mr. Lum... don't know if he is still lucid or not and David was not clear at all about this. I asked a bunch of questions, but the trail went real cold, no answers were ever received. 73 Mike E. **************************************************************************** From Ric "Harry" Lau has sometimes been described as the U.S. Army Signal corps liaison officer on Howland Island but the Itasca Cruise Report (July 24, 1937) lists Henry Lau as one of the "Hawaiian personnel employees of Department of Interior." Yat Fai Lum (correct name Yau Fai Lum) was another of the DoI "colonists" on Howland and is shown in the Cruise Report as "Paul Yat Lum". In 1989 TIGHAR member (and Earhart Project co-founder) Tom Gannon corresponded with Mr. Yau, a fellow HAM (K6GNW and KH6CW), and asked him to describe his experiences. Here is Mr. Yau's reply. Dear Thomas: A half century is a long time ago to remember things accurately. For memory has faded and time and age has taken its toll. I will try to givea short synopsis of my nine months on Howland Island. Howland Island is a very small island near the equator which is about one mile long and half-a-mile wide. It is flat about 20 feet above sea level. The chief and original inhabitants of the island are thousands of sea birds like the frigate, booby, marlyn, terns, etc. They build their nests on the sandy ground, lay their eggs, and raise their young. Sailing ships used to stop by to retrieve guano which is in abundance. There are also thousands of rats that are not afraid of man. There are just a few trees about ten feet tall. But there are an abundance of sea food from fish to squid to lobsters. We killed many sharks for their jaws as trophies and their fins for soup. We worked for the Dept. of Interior, three Hawaiians from Kamehameha School and myself, the radio operator. I had a SW3 radio receiver and a home built transmitter with a 807 in the final. The Zepp antenna hung from the top of the flag pole to a shorter pole 65 feet away. Our electrical sources were borrowed from the army with their hand-cranked generator which put out 400 volts, storage batteries together with a generator-charger, and a dynamo. I had special authority from the FCC to operate on 31 meters on the Coast frequency because the ham bands had too much QRM. With only men (four) on the island, we ran around naked all day long and did not shave for nine months. Every three months the Coast Guard ship Itasca stop by to provide us with provisions and transfer personnel who wish to leave. All food and water in 50-gallon drums were brought in from Honolulu. Pan American Airline was pioneering the Pacific at that time, and we provided them with weather reports on the ground and in the upper atmosphere. We rotate every four days to stand watch and take weather readings like barometric pressure, temperature, wind direction and speed, cloud formation, etc. Once a day we set up the theodolite and inflate a huge balloon. As one person release the balloon, he has his log and pencil ready to log the readings as announced by the other person manning the theodolite. The readings give upper atmosphere wind speed and direction. Once a day all these information were relayed to another ham in Honolulu who telephoned PAA with the figures. About a month prior to D Day when Amelia Earhart was to arrive, the Coast Guard brought and landed heavy equipment of bull dozer, grader, tractor, etc., to build the airfield. It was relatively easy for the land was flat, sandy, with no huge boulders to move or dynamite. One concern was that if the navigation was not perfect they may miss or overshoot the island. From 30,000 feel up, the island is just a fly speck in the Pacific. Hard to see. The other concern was the thousands of sea birds flying about which may damage the plane. On the evening of D Day minus 1, I was aboard ship enjoying a good meal and splashing in a hot shower. On Howland we do not have such luxuries. We bathe in the ocean and cannot use soap. Salt water do not wash soap off our skin. Afterwards I went on deck just in time to witness a loud boom on the island when the army personnel set off a couple of cases of dynamite trying to scare the birds away. When the blasts went off, all the birds took flight about 100 feet into the air, chirping in fright. The whole island shook and vibrated sending ripples of small waves around the island. After a few minutes, all of the birds returned to their nests. The Coast Guard radio personnel brought ashore portable radio equipment, direction finders, etc., and occupied a shack next to the main house. We did not bother then, so as not to interfere with their duties. In the afternoon as I walked past the shack, I heard one of them say, "They are low on gas." I assume the, were referring to Earhart, but I did not bother to ask. The army personnel built an eight-foot high stand and hoisted a 50-gallon drum of water atop. They attached a shower head and a pull cord to release the water. Tarpaulin surrounded the structure to offer privacy since Amelia will be the only female within miles of the island. This will be her shower room. No hot shower for the temperature was about 90°. In the meantime, I was busy giving up my bed for her. It was one of those folding steel bed about 30" wide with a thin mattress on it. I spread a clean sheet on it and changed the pillow case. She will have privacy here for this is a room towards the back of the house where she could sleep without being bothered. When she did not arrive as scheduled, the Coast Guard ship began circling the island in expanding circles until out of sight trying to locate her. They came back a few days later empty handed. There were many rumors about her disappearance, all without proof. That the Japanese held her prisoner, the Japanese shot her down, she was spying, and she never left on her last leg to Howland, etc. I was never in radio contact with Earhart, for that was left entirely to the Coast Guard. My SW3 receiver only had a few coils in the ham bands and two that I wound to receive the Coast Guard frequency on 31 meters and a broadcast coil to receive KGMB in Honolulu. I do not know anything about hearing signals from Earhart after she went down. Sorry to have taken so long to answer your letter. When your letter dated Dec. 17, 1988 was in transit, we left on Dec. 19 to visit our grandchildren in Tennessee. We just got home to find your letter together with a huge pile of mail awaiting. I am surprise to find so many people researching the same subject at such a late date. I have an appointment with a fella who is coming on Jan. 22 to record our conversation on TV. I hope the above information will shed some light in your research. Good luck and hope you will come up with all the correct answers. 73. Very truly yours, Yau Fai Lum ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2002 09:20:54 EST From: Tom King Subject: Re: Going for broke Eloquently said, Ric, and in fact "archeologize" IS a word that's used from time to time, though it may not yet be in anybody's dictionary. TK ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2002 09:22:41 EST From: Tom King Subject: Re: What should be done Don -- I think that even if it would be relatively cheap to do a deep water search (and it's my strong impression that it wouldn't be), I think Ric has made an excellent point in his recent post on this subject about the adverse effects of putting (or seeming to put) all one's eggs in a single basket; the example he used of the passionate planelike pixels on the reef was an excellent one. If you don't strike it rich when you go for broke -- well, people think you're broke, whether you really are or not. As for the fact that we haven't yet definitively linked up an artifact from the village with the Earhart plane -- that's hardly surprising, considering that most parts of the plane would not be definitively identifiable as such and that we've never really given the village a thorough search. Most times we've just wandered around there on off-days, and/or when we got discouraged looking anyplace else. Only in 1997 did we really try to give it a look, and then we were able to closely study only two residence sites -- maybe two to four percent of the total. The village is knee-deep in rotting coconut fronds and nuts; you can't just wander through and pick up whatever's there. It would take a serious piece of work to really say we've looked at it, but at least we have the technology. And if we want an engine -- there's always Kanton. Tom King ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2002 09:32:20 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: Re: March of Time I note Tom Van Hare's comments about the possibility of finding an audio as the Firm was the ad agency for the MOT. Sounds as if there is fund raising possiblities if you hit the right chords when approaching that firm. In view of that aspect, I suspect you or someone on your staff give the firm a call. ************************************************************************** From Ric A hard lesson I've learned about corporate fund raising is that "cold calling" big firms is a waste of time. Chasing a recording or transcript of the MoT broadcasts is something I have to let you guys do. If somebody in a position of authority at "the Firm" gets turned on about our investigation, that will be the time for me to get involved. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2002 09:51:42 EST From: Angus Murray Subject: Re: ARRL again I don't know if you have seen this but there are some interesting points raised re Noonan's drinking, fake logs, incorrect time zones and Thompson's incompetence. It confirms that Lum had no part in any DF effort or radio communication with Earhart. Regards Angus. COURTESY OF JOHN HANCOCK FINANCIAL SERVICES The Earhart Tragedy Old Mystery, New Hypothesis By John P. Riley, Jr. Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan disappeared over the Pacific in 1937 while attempting to fly around the world--and their story continues to intrigue researchers and the public alike. The author details evidence indicating that official actions may have contributed to the mystery. Over the decades since Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan disappeared in the Pacific Ocean on 2 July 1937 while attempting to fly around the world, many authors have focused on the fliers' alleged incompetence as the reason they did not find Howland Island. Earhart, despite having achieved numerous aviation firsts, often is portrayed as unqualified, even though she was the first woman to fly the Atlantic Ocean and the first person of either sex to fly from Hawaii to the mainland of North America. Critics say that Noonan, although without question a top-flight navigator, was a hopeless alcoholic who was either drunk or hung over when most needed. Captain Almon Gray, U.S. Naval Reserve (Retired), who was Assistant Communications Superintendent for Pan American Airways' Pacific Division when he left to go on active duty in 1942, knew Fred Noonan well and flew with him a number of times in the Pan Am Clippers. Gray told me that Noonan always showed up for a flight precisely on time but usually looking a bit hung over. Once aloft he would have some coffee and then do a superb job of navigation. He never drank during a flight. Unknown to many researchers, Noonan held a second class Commercial Radiotelegraph License, which he obtained two years before his death, and he often stood by for the Clippers' radio operators when needed. They worked in CW (continuous wave, i.e., Morse code) exclusively. In contrast with the sniping at the Earhart-Noonan team, Commander Warner K. Thompson, U.S. Coast Guard, commanding the USCGC Itasca (WPG-321)--the vessel waiting at Howland Island to guide her in--has received lavish praise. Consider what the Commandant, 14th Naval District, reported at the time to the Chief of Naval Operations: THOMAS J. RINGERS People flocked to Lae when Amelia Earhart and navigator Fred Noonan passed through. Left to right: L. J. Joubert of Bulolo Gold Dredging, Ltd.; Mrs. Joubert; Mrs. F. C. Jacobs; Earhart; F. C. Jacobs of New Guinea Goldfields, Ltd.; and Noonan. Tommie O'Dea, General Manager of Guinea Airways, took the photograph--one of the last images of the two fliers before they launched for Howland Island. In the background is the aircraft with the direction-finding loop antenna and the stub mast antenna clearly visible aft of the cockpit. "Commander W. K. Thompson, USCG, has been commended by letter to his immediate superior. His intelligent and zealous conduct of the initial phase of the search under most trying conditions deserves especial commendation. His reports, together with the wholehearted cooperation of the Commander, Hawaiian Section, U. S. Coast Guard, were of great assistance to the subsequent conduct of operations by the Navy. The performance of the ITASCA was excellent in all respects throughout the flight and the search. Careful study of all communications and other information pertaining to the flight and the preparations therefor indicate clearly that ITASCA left nothing undone to insure the safe completion of the Earhart flight." Many investigating the disappearance probably took this at face value and directed their attention elsewhere. I saw it as military service politesse, however. Generous letters of commendation are an old tradition in all fighting forces--but they can distort history. A detailed examination of Commander Thompson's performance reveals a different story. Far from acting intelligently and zealously, he must have so embarrassed then-Rear Admiral R. R. Waesche, Commandant of the Coast Guard, and Secretary of the Treasury Henry Morgenthau, Jr.--to whom the service then reported--that they thought it best the facts remain undisclosed. With the fliers unavailable to defend themselves, only one side of the story has come to light--until now. Of course, Commander Thompson is not here to defend himself either. If, because of that, my judgment of him seems too harsh, it must be compared with the unrestrained attacks he made on Earhart in his search report. U.S. COAST GUARD Admiral Russell Waesche was the Commandant of the Coast Guard from 1936 to 1945. Stonewalling Shortly after the search for the missing fliers ended, Navy Commander P. V. H. Weems, a highly regarded navigator and navigation instructor, wrote to Rear Admiral Waesche asking for copies of files concerning the disaster. Weems knew Noonan, at least through correspondence, and was motivated to discover what had happened. Following is the terse reply: Weems System of Navigation 30 August, 1937 Annapolis, Maryland Sirs: Reference is made to your letter of August 14, 1937 in which you request the file of messages from the U. S. Coast Guard Cutter ITASCA concerning the loss of the Earhart plane. While realizing the merit of your plans and that the conclusions drawn from a study of the information contained in the dispatches would be of value to flyers [sic], it is believed inadvisable to submit any of the information for study or publication. I regret very much that this decision seems best after a consideration of all factors in the case and that we are unable to comply with your request. Very truly yours, R. R. Waesche Rear Admiral, U. S. Coast Guard, Commandant What led to this decision? The logical conclusion is that the Itasca's message file contained embarrassing information. Apparently what was embarrassing was that Commander Thompson's actions appeared to be factors in the loss of Earhart and Noonan. Admiral Waesche died long ago, but his son later became a flag officer in the Coast Guard and retired in 1971. In correspondence, I found him completely forthright, cooperative, and gracious. When I asked what his father thought happened to Earhart and Noonan, however, he said that his father " . . . never at any time discussed Amelia Earhart." Background ACME Commander Warner K. Thompson, U.S. Coast Guard (inset) commanded the 250-foot U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Itasca (WPG-321) [shown here in the mid-1930s], which had been sent to Howland Island to provide navigational assistance for Earhart and Noonan on the long, over-water leg from Lae, New Guinea. The Itasca was at Howland Island to provide communications, smoke signals, and radio bearings to guide Earhart and Noonan as they approached the small isolated island in the mid-Pacific. I reject as fanciful the many conspiracy and faulty navigation theories involving the loss of the two fliers. Earhart and Noonan attempted to fly from Lae to Howland Island, arrived in the vicinity of the island short of fuel, and went into the sea nearby trying to find it. Things were what they seemed to be. Those who have flown over the sea when the sun is bright and low, with cumulus clouds about, know how difficult it would be to see a tiny island having a highest elevation of only about 15 feet. Looking toward the sun one sees only a blinding, shimmering path of silvery reflected sunlight in an arc about 15° to 20° wide; within that arc nothing can be seen. Elsewhere, numerous cloud shadows look exactly like islands. The Itasca was making smoke, but it would have been conspicuous only if seen from sea level with a light blue sky in the background. Earhart and Noonan, however, were flying at 1,000 feet and the smoke seen from that perspective would have had an inky, blue-sea background. Color contrast would have been minimal; the odds were against them. Tiny Howland would have been difficult to spot in any case, but none of this would have mattered if the fliers could have received a radio bearing for final guidance. That was not to be. Failure to Provide Timely Radio Beacon Signal The Itasca failed to provide a timely radio beacon signal for the fliers to home on. Her 550-270 kiloHertz (kHz) radio direction finder and 500 kHz beacon transmitter do not appear to have been manned until 0730 ship's time, according to the log kept by Radioman Third Class T. J. O'Hare. The plane by that time would have been nearing Howland and the fliers would have been trying to find the island visually. By 0730, they likely would have given up trying to find the radio beacon, thinking their radio direction finder was not working. Commander Thompson should have had Radioman Third Class O'Hare on watch at least from the time the plane was about 200 miles from destination (i.e., at 0615 ship's time or earlier) and should have been transmitting a beacon signal on 500 kHz--not listening on that frequency. Almost every time "500 KCs [kilocycles]" (kilocycles rather than kiloHertz was the term in use at the time) is mentioned in the logs, one kept by O'Hare and the other by Radioman Third Class W. L. Galten, it is in the context of a request on 3105 kHz that Earhart transmit on 500 kHz so the Itasca could get a bearing--or a simple note such as "LSNIN [listening] 500" or "NIL [nothing] FROM KHAQQ [the aircraft] 500." It seems clear that the Itasca was listening on 500 kHz, not transmitting a steady beacon signal. One cannot do both at the same time. Earhart and Noonan simply could not transmit on 500 kHz. They depended on their radio direction finder and could have taken bearings on the cutter's 500 kHz transmitter if it had been in operation. The fliers needed a continuous beacon signal on that frequency, except during the plane's scheduled transmissions, and there was none. Had there been one, it could have guided them to Howland Island. All involved evidently misunderstood who was to take the bearings, ship or plane, so the cutter's crew listened on 500 kHz when they should have transmitted. But they did neither until the plane was already almost at destination. Failure to Support Radio Direction Finder on Howland On 5 July, Commander Thompson reported in a long message to Coast Guard Headquarters (with copy to San Francisco Division) that "SHIP [ITASCA] MET ALL EARHART REQUESTS WITH EXCEPTION INABILITY TO SECURE EMERGENCY RADIO BEARING ON 3105 KILOCYCLES DUE BRIEF EARHART TRANSMISSIONS AND USE VOICE. . . ." He is on the defensive here and attempting to shift blame squarely to Earhart. The "USE [of] VOICE" would not have prevented bearings being taken. In any case, the cutter's 0756 radio log entry does not bear him out. At that time, Earhart requested bearings and made a series of "long dashes," i.e., unmodulated carrier. She had made several transmissions that were too short to DF (get a direction-finding bearing), but she did not do it this time. Commander Thompson's report does not tell the rest of the story. Richard B. Black, Department of the Interior, and Radioman Second Class Frank Cipriani had brought aboard the Itasca a portable radio direction finder (RDF) that could tune the high frequencies used by Earhart for communications, with the intention of setting it up on Howland Island. For no apparent reason, Commander Thompson at first flatly refused to put Cipriani and his equipment ashore on the island. It could have been because he regarded his ship as responsible for guiding Earhart to Howland and he did not want anyone else to steal his thunder. Black, however, was determined that Cipriani and his RDF equipment would go ashore. Eventually, he prevailed, but Commander Thompson gave only grudging support and sent Cipriani ashore with a battery of inadequate capacity. Despite minimum use, the battery was totally discharged just when it was needed most--when Earhart desperately wanted a bearing taken and was sending those long dashes. But for this, bearings almost certainly could have been taken, although they could not have been sent to the plane because Earhart was not receiving voice transmissions from the Itasca. The bearings could have been a lifesaver during the rescue attempt, however, giving the searchers a better idea of where to look for the downed plane. Flawed search pattern Howland Island was actually about 5.8 nautical miles from its charted position. Commander Thompson visited it on a regular schedule and knew its correct position, but he did not inform Earhart and Noonan of the error when exchanging messages with the two fliers before they departed on the final and fatal flight from Lae, New Guinea. Figure 1 shows a logical search area oriented to the line-of-position and the track of the first search by the Itasca The cutter covered about 32% of the pattern in daylight but wasted 14 hours far to the east. Note the two positions of Howland, one per chart and the other the true position. The search pattern's estimated position at 0930 ship's time on 3 July (it was being set northwest at approximately 2 knots by the current). The Itasca conducted her second search without entering the search pattern once during daylight--24 hours wasted. With quick rescue a matter of life or death after the plane was overdue, Commander Thompson got under way at 1040 ship's time on course 337°, which he soon changed to 338° (evidently correcting ship's course for drift, which he should not have done). At 1400, he headed east for five hours, away from the line-of-position (LOP) where the plane most likely went down. He spent the night of 2-3 July chasing after meteors that he mistook for flares. (See Figure 1.) Instead, he should have searched along the 337°/157° LOP reported by Earhart. To define the search area, one would start by drawing the LOP on the chart through both the charted position of Howland Island and then through its true position. [Howland's charted position was 0 degrees 53 minutes N (north), 176° 35 minutes W (west)); its true position was 0° 48 minutes N, 176° 38 minutes W.] Next, one would have to take into account that the LOPs could be in error as much as 10 nautical miles, so the pattern would have to be made 20 nautical miles wider (10 nautical miles on each side). Earhart did not say how far up or down the LOP she was flying. I think a reasonable assumption for the purpose at hand would be 45 nautical miles in each direction from the vicinity of Howland. This top-priority search pattern therefore would be about 24 nautical miles wide--covering the possible LOP error and the ambiguity of the reference point--and 90 nautical miles long. That produces a 2,160-square-mile pattern, shown in Figure 1, which would have been moving northwest with the current at about two knots. The search should have been conducted during daylight hours only. At night, the cutter should have drifted, letting the current take both vessel and pattern in the same direction. The pattern could have been searched in two passes. Steaming at 14 knots (with sunset at 1825 and sunrise at 0615 ship's time), the 13-hour search would have been completed by about 1130 ship's time on 3 July--the morning after the plane disappeared. Commander Thompson searched only about one-third of this area. (Again, see Figure 1). Why he thought that Noonan could wander to a position 100 miles east of the LOP that the fliers reported is hard to imagine. This would have required an error, normal to the LOP, 10 times Noonan's usual maximum error.1 When Earhart reported, "We are on you but can't see you," she was probably no more than 10 miles from the Itasca and Howland. Unable to see the tiny island, it is logical that she would fly up and down the LOP and that is precisely what she told the Itasca she was doing. Why would Commander Thompson look elsewhere? In any event, on the morning of 3 July he was back, drifting off the coast of Howland, waiting for a reply to a message he had sent to the Commander of the 14th Coast Guard District and the USS Swan (AVP-7). The message had asked whether he should load gasoline or depart on further operations. The gas was 1,600 gallons of aviation fuel in 50-gallon drums put on Howland to refuel Earhart's aircraft. He wasted one hour and 31 minutes of precious daylight search time before he received the obvious reply and got under way--again off to the east of the LOP high-probability search area. The cutter's crew failed to consider a two-knot current that was shifting the pattern northwest when the Itasca resumed the search on the morning of 3 July. (See Figure 2). At that very moment, Earhart and Noonan may have been clinging to sinking wreckage 10 or 20 miles away. On 4 July, he sent a message to the Hawaiian Section (with information copies to San Francisco and the 14th Coast Guard District) saying "JUDGE SHE CAME DOWN BETWEEN 337 [degrees] AND 90 [degrees] FROM HOWLAND AND WITHIN 100 MILES." In their 5 July reply, San Francisco belatedly told the Itasca: "OPINION OF TECHNICAL AIDS HERE THAT PLANE WILL BE FOUND ON ORIGINAL LINE OF POSITION. . . ." After two days, the staff had finally realized he was searching in the wrong place and told him so. Open-ocean ditchings are extremely hazardous. Without shoulder harnesses, pilots often pitched forward into the instrument panel. The sea was unusually calm around Howland that morning, however, and she might have ditched successfully. The plane, because of its large empty tanks, would have had about 5,000 pounds of positive buoyancy, but the center of buoyancy was well aft of the heavy engines and the aircraft certainly would have been nose down in the sea. The cockpit soon would have filled with water, forcing the tail higher and making it difficult to get to the rubber raft, water, and emergency gear stored in the tail section. Unless they were able to get into the raft, they could not have coped for long under those conditions. Hours counted--but if they survived the initial crash, probably hurt, they waited in vain. What happened in the first two days of the search was all important. Hours, days, and nights went by with Commander Thompson's ship wandering aimlessly--usually far from the reported line of position. Exaggerated search reports In his 6003-1250 message of 3 July, Thompson claimed to have searched "3,000 square miles." His deck log shows he steamed 268 miles. Therefore, he made the assumption that he could at all times see a plane on the water at a distance of up to 5.6 miles on either side of his course. But the cutter covered only about 124 miles during daylight--and only about 55 of them on or within 10 miles of the LOP. Most of the night he was on random courses far to the east of the LOP search area and could see practically nothing in the darkness--except the meteors that he mistook for flares. A more accurate report would have claimed only 616 square miles searched. He completely misled headquarters. In a later message, Thompson claimed to have "searched 1,500 square miles during the night." This concept of searching is hard to accept. It seems to assume that the downed fliers would still be alert, be able to see the ship's searchlight, and be able to launch flares to attract attention. A partly submerged plane, miles away, could not easily be seen at night, with or without the "vigilant lookouts and powerful searchlights" mentioned in his messages. The Bogus Howland Radio Log For years, many details of the search for the missing fliers were classified. They were declassified finally and released as required under the Freedom of Information Act, but the picture remains obscured today, perhaps unintentionally, by a pea soup fog of disinformation that continues to mislead researchers. It is interesting to speculate on what person(s) may have written one of the strangest documents that survives from that era: the Howland radio log. Today, it is virtually impossible to determine who concocted it; in any event, this record of the DF station on Howland Island is a counterfeit, according to the two men still alive who were on the island at the time and are alleged to have participated in writing it: Yau Fai Lum and Ah Kin Leong (see below). The Itasca's deck logs, radio logs, message traffic and Commander Thompson's Earhart Search Report (of which at least two versions exist), however, all support the fiction of a radio and DF watch on Howland during the Itasca's search for the fliers. If the Howland radio log is bogus, it follows that these other fundamental documents also may be suspect in some details. COURTESY OF THE AUTHOR Radio operator Yau Fai Lum revealed details regarding the direction-finding station on Howland Island and the log of its alleged activities. If this sound like classic "conspiracy theory," remember that all material was classified promptly and researchers like Commander Weems and Paul Mantz were denied access--and access for all researchers continued to be denied for many years. Francis X. Holbrook, who wrote "Amelia Earhart's Last Flight" (Naval Institute Proceedings February 1971, pages 48-55), concluded that he had been led astray and put to considerable trouble by misinformation. Such misinformation did not require a large conspiracy; indeed, a single mischief maker could have been responsible. In the absence of access to factual data, researchers were at the mercy of whatever tidbits of information--or misinformation--that were leaked to them. I put my trust in the following accounts of Lum and Leong, both of whom maintain that the log was cooked. In the mid-1930s, both the United States and Great Britain claimed the Line Islands, which included Jarvis, Baker, and Howland. Thinking they might one day prove to be of strategic value, the United States occupied them in 1935 to reinforce its claim. Four-man civilian teams were landed on each and rotated from time to time; all were trained as weather observers, and each team included one amateur radio operator. They sent daily weather reports to another amateur radio station in Honolulu, which passed them to Pan American Airways, then pioneering trans-Pacific clipper flights. Richard B. Black, Department of the Interior, recruited men in the Hawaiian Islands for the teams; nearly all were Americans of Chinese or Hawaiian descent. Yau Fai Lum operated the amateur radio station on Howland Island in July 1937. Serendipitously, while searching the Radio Call book for a fellow ham operator with whom I had lost contact, I came across the new call letters, name, and address of Yau Fai Lum near where my friend would have been listed. I began a long and interesting correspondence with Lum.2 He told me of that fateful day when they waited in vain for Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan. I was impressed by his almost total recall of details. Lum said he had washed his sheets and aired his bed, the best on the island, so that Amelia could lie down and rest in comfort after her long, exhausting flight. He described the private shower improvised for her--a 50-gallon drum of fresh water with canvas enclosure. When I asked Lum about Cipriani and the high-frequency DF equipment, he replied: "I never met him." "How could you not meet him?" I asked. "Didn't you, Henry Lau, and Ah Kin Leong live with him on that fly-speck island that had only one sleeping shelter and one 15-foot-long tent for a kitchen/dining area? And didn't you report to him and stand radio watches under his direction during the 16 days that the Itasca was at sea searching for Amelia?" I enclosed a copy of the Howland Radio Log, which had numerous entries supposedly made by Lum. He wrote back immediately: The Howland radio log is a " . . . fraud--it is B.S." He never met Cipriani, never stood watches on Amelia's frequency, and never operated a direction finder. He said that two men (presumably Cipriani and Black) came ashore with a direction finder and set it up in a tent. He walked by the tent a few times in the course of his work and heard bits of conversation in passing but did not intrude. He told me several times that he did not want to get in the way of other people when it was not his business to do so. My impression is that he is by nature rather shy. He also pointed out that his name in the log was consistently spelled wrong (as "Yat" Fai Lum) where he supposedly signed off at the end of each watch. Yat is a common Chinese name, but his is "Yau" not "Yat." He added, "I should know how to spell my own name. According to the Howland log," he continued, "other operators were Henry Lau, [call letters] K6GAS, and Ah Kin Leong, K6ODC. But they were not even on the island during the 16-day search. They and Cipriani were on board the Itasca." Henry Lau is dead, but I wrote to Ah Kin Leong, ex-K6ODC. Asked what he knew of all this, he replied on 4 September 1994: "No idea who wrote the false log. I stand no radio watch on Howland Island. Cipriani, Henry Lau and me was on the Coast Guard Cutter Itasca when it left Howland Island looking for Earhart." (According to the Itasca's deck log for 2 July, when it became evident that Earhart was overdue and in trouble, the landing party [no exceptions are mentioned] returned to the cutter, which departed to begin a 16-day search for the missing fliers. It does not say that Cipriani or other radio operators remained ashore. The 18 July deck log entry, however, states that they reboarded from Howland on that date.) On 4 July, the Commander Hawaiian Sector had sent the following message to the Itasca: "HAVE HOWLAND DIRECTION FINDER BE ON STANDBY FOR BEARINGS." Thompson would have been hard put to explain that he could not comply because he had Cipriani on board. So, inserted in the cutter's log dated 4 July, is this message supposedly sent to K6GNW (Lum's call letters) on Howland as follows: "MR. BLACK SEZ CIPRIANI IS IN CONTROL ES TO KEEP CONTINUOUS WATCH ON 3105 ES TAKE BEARINGS USE CHINESE OPS HR IF YOU HAVE TROUBLE HAVING BOYS STAND WATCHES MR. BLACK SEZ TO TELL JIMMY." When I asked Lum about this, he replied: "It is all B.S." Was "HR" a Freudian slip or just a careless error? It means "here," not "there," as intended. If Cipriani really had remained on Howland when the landing party was recalled, it seems logical that such a message would have been sent to NRUI2, the call letters he used with the portable radio equipment that he took ashore along with the portable direction finder. It is very unlikely that such a message would have been sent to K6GNW (Lum's station) instead. Why take the word of Yau Fai Lum and Ah Kin Leong against that of Commander Thompson? For starters, neither has an ax to grind. Lum impresses me as being a highly reliable and completely sincere man. When he returned from Howland Island he acquired a Commercial First Class Radiotelephone license, joined the Honolulu Police Department, and eventually headed its Radio Maintenance Department until he retired. Commander Thompson, on the other hand, had a motive to distort facts. Circumstantial details, such as the misspelling of Lum's name, support Lum's and Leong's statements. The log also incorporates a one-day date error in all entries (a day must be subtracted to get the correct date), and uses a +10 1/2 time zone instead of +11 1/2. It seems quite unlikely that an error of one whole day would persist in a radio log, day after day, if it were kept by four operators as claimed. Surely, at least one of them would have known the correct date. Furthermore, the first page of the bogus log is headed "Radio log ITASCA," at least in the version that I have. That looks like another Freudian slip by someone assigned to the Itasca--or whoever actually wrote the log while on board the Itasca instead of on Howland. Why would Thompson take Cipriani off Howland Island when the cutter departed on the search? He did not want him there in the first place, but he probably was not thinking about Cipriani at all when he ordered the landing party back to the ship. To sound plausible, the log had to be written by a person with detailed knowledge of what was going on at the time, and who was familiar with the usual log details, radio procedure signs, and jargon--i.e. a radio operator. Chief Radioman L. G. Bellarts had died, and I contacted his son to ask what papers and memoirs his father left. Bellarts, I was told, recognized the historical importance of the radio logs and took personal possession of them soon after the plane was lost. He guarded them carefully for years, but eventually sent them to the National Archives. I wrote asking whether the logs they were giving researchers were direct copies of those received from Bellarts, or had they come perhaps from some other source? To date, I have received no reply. I have been unable to locate Frank Cipriani or any close relative. Dwight Long, another Earhart researcher, told me that Cipriani became a civilian radio operator and was lost at sea in a World War II convoy when his ship was torpedoed. COURTESY OF FRANKLIN D. ROOSEVELT LIBRARY Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau, Jr. (left, with President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934 )was concerned that release of the official report would smear Amelia Earhart's reputation. A retired officer who signed the Itasca's deck log as "W. I. Swanston, Lt. (j.g.) USCG, Navigator," confirmed being in the ship's company during the search for the fliers but denied having been the navigator, despite clear evidence to the contrary. He was 86 when I contacted him. When I pointed out that he had definitely signed the Itasca's deck log as navigator, I got a rude answer. I asked him a question concerning navigation on board the cutter and he again replied rudely that I did not know anything about navigation. He did not seem to understand the point I was trying to make. He seemed to be in a bad mood. I think that he had long ago forgotten any details concerned with navigation and did not want to be associated in any way with the incident. Clearly revealing high-level concern for embarrassment are the actions taken by then-Secretary of the Treasury Henry Morgenthau, Jr. The U. S. Coast Guard, at that time, came under the Treasury Department, and among Morgenthau's papers at the Franklin Delano Roosevelt Library in Hyde Park, New York, is the transcript of a telephone call he made on 13 May 1938 to Malvina Scheider, personal secretary to Mrs. Eleanor Roosevelt, the president's wife, in response to a request she had made. (Amelia's mentor, aviator A. Paul Mantz, on 26 April 1938 had contacted Mrs. Roosevelt asking her to intercede for him with the Coast Guard to obtain a copy of " . . . the official report of the ITASCA," [the Itasca Cruise Report, a 19-page document, dated 24 July 1937, written by Commander Thompson and on file at Coast Guard Headquarters]). Only Morgenthau's side of the conversation was included in the following transcript: "If we're going to release this, it's just going to smear the whole reputation of Amelia Earhart." (In the document requested, Commander Thompson had done his utmost to shift the blame from himself to Earhart.) "And we have the report of all those wireless messages and everything else." (This had to refer, in part, to the messages quoted in this article. They are the proverbial smoking gun. Nothing else reveals so clearly Commander Thompson's poor judgment at the time. They had not been released when Morgenthau made his call.) ". . . if we give it to this one man we've got to make it public; we can't let [just] one man see it." By far the most revealing remark is the following: ". . . if the president [FDR] ever heard that somebody questioned that the Navy hadn't made the proper search . . . I mean I think he'd get terribly angry if somebody. . . ." [comment left unfinished]. (FDR, as is well known, was fond of the Navy, but when Morgenthau said "Navy," he probably meant "Coast Guard," the service he headed. Mantz, after all, had requested the Coast Guard Cutter Itasca's documents, not those of the Navy.3) Morgenthau apparently knew beyond any doubt that Commander Thompson's actions were a factor in the loss of the fliers, and that he bungled the subsequent search. Morgenthau was one of the few men who might have had important information on the Earhart incident. On the chance that he might have told his son something about it, I wrote Robert Morgenthau asking if his father had ever discussed it with him; to date I have received no answer. Commander Thompson suffered a coronary thrombosis and died at age 53 on 1 September 1939 in Ketchikan, Alaska, two years and two months after the fliers met their deaths. 1. This would imply that Noonan had accumulated a dead reckoning error of about 100 miles in the process of advancing his line of position in about two hours, which is ridiculous. When Noonan was navigating Pan American Clippers, he wrote to Commander Weems, saying that with his bubble octant he was usually within 10 nautical miles or less of his intended landfalls. (He relied, however, on radio bearings from Pan Am's big ground Adcock arrays for final guidance). 2. An authentic radio old-timer, he described Howland Island and his radio equipment: A National SW-3 receiver, crystal-controlled transmitter, which he made himself, with an 801 in the power amplifier, and a "Zep" antenna--half-wave, end-fed by 600-ohm open-wire feeders. To avoid interference from stations in the amateur bands he got special permission to operate on a Coast Guard frequency. 3. On 5 July 1938, Morgenthau sent a note to Eleanor Roosevelt saying Mantz had been given a copy of the "ITASCA log." Many researchers think that this was a sanitized version of the radio log with everything embarrassing deleted. I have seen a shortened, expurgated version of the Cruise Report (nine instead of the original 19 pages) which may have been made for Mantz. I suspect that this may be what he was given, loosely referred to by Morgenthau as the "ITASCA log." It contained nothing of importance. Mr. Riley, trained as a radar officer at Harvard and MIT during World War II, was on board the USS Colorado (BB-45) for the assault on Tarawa and later served on the staff of Rear Admiral Arthur D. Struble during landings in the Philippines. He spent a career working with radio propagation and antennas for RCA and the Harris Corporation. Fascinated by celestial navigation, he sailed single-handed from San Francisco to Honolulu in 1951, and later sailed from the United States to Monte Carlo. He wrote "A Cuppa Joe," Naval History, August 1998, pp. 18-22. Paul Rafford and Joseph Huie provided invaluable assistance for this article. published July/August 2000 **************************************************************************** From Ric The forum discussed Riley's opinions when the article first appeared in Naval History. His allegation that Cipriani's log is "cooked" is hard to accept and is without documentary support. The existing log is a "smoothed" copy, possibly explaining the misspelling of Yau's name. Howland was keeping Honolulu time (Greenwich minus 10 1/2 in those days) even though the Itasca just offshore was using Greenwich minus 11 1/2, so the log is not in error on that score as Riley claims. The date is, however, a day off - but that doesn't seem odd to anyone who has ever spent much time out there. It's surprisingly difficult to keep track of what day it is and the error in Cipriani's log actually is an argument that he WAS on Howland and removed from the orderliness of shipboard operations. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2002 10:04:46 EST From: Craig Subject: Re: Recovering degraded photo images > Maybe, but the technique might be worth applying to some of our other > imagery, like the early airphotos. > > Here's the URL for the article Anthony referred to: Sorry to burst anyone's gorilla, but the photo technique they describe is only applicable to photos that have been captured using a particular optical system with a known defect or flaw. This is not applicable in our case. As an example, if you put the lens from your grandmother's reading glasses in front of your camera, and then took a picture of her (and hopefully she'd see you doing this, and not be scared out of her wits by the sudden flash!) the resulting photo would be 'off' or biased by a certain known amount - the amount of your grandmother's lens. To fix the photo, so the thought goes, simply take said photo and apply an effect opposite to that of glasses, and voila you have a more-or-less corrected photo. This will not help us make our photos any sharper, or reveal to us that it was actually Noonan in the picture wearing the gorilla suit. LTGM, (sorry about that sudden flash grandma!) Craig **************************************************************************** From Ric Thanks Craig. That makes sense. The good news is that our resident forensic imaging wizard - Jeff Glickman of Photek in Portland , OR - is developing new enhancement algorithms that he is testing on our satellite image of Niku. He has, so far, been able to bring up significantly more detail than even the one meter "pan sharpened" version of the image and is now "searching" the island for indications of man-made objects. (To give you some idea, the enhanced digital image is something over half a gig in size.) This could take a while, but the results could also be very interesting. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2002 10:17:44 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Members and non-members >From Ric >Why is it that it always seems to be the folks who have never >contributed a nickel who are full of advice about how much money we >should raise and how we should spend it? Maybe that is a question that should be asked of those who _are_ contributing members of TIGHAR... why don't _they_ offer more challenging questions & advice on the issues of how the pursuit of TIGHAR's objectives are being determined & funds are to be raised & allocated ? If our (non-contributors) questions & suggestions are invalid, off-topic, offensive or contrary to the TIGHAR hypothesis... as sole moderator of this site, you are entitled to cut us off at your pleasure... however, as you've often stated yourself on the Forum, it is the free, wide-open, far ranging (within reason) format of this discussion group that makes it unique & that has encouraged an unusually disparate group of individuals, with very wide parameters concerning credentials, talents & interests... to contribute their knowledge & expertise (free of charge) & has (at least for the four years that I have participated) resulted in the development of the most diverse, yet highly focused body of information about the AE/FN mystery available anywhere else... today. While I certainly would not consider myself to be included in such a august group of individuals, with my own meager participation, vastly limited already by my Non-Aviator/Non-Navigator/otherwise non-professional standing, (& I'm certain my own participation on the Forum, would not be greatly missed, if dropped by the Forum, because of my non-member status)... I do believe that the Forum & TIGHAR has benefited far more from such participation by the _other_ non-member participants, than can ever be valued in terms of membership fees or dollar contributions. Don Neumann ************************************************************************** From Ric I somehow missed the fact that TIGHAR members and researchers don't ask challenging questions. My impression has been that, as sycophants go, they're a pretty sorry lot. ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2002 09:50:45 EST From: Roger Kelley Subject: Tom King's itinerary Do you know if Tom King still intends to make a public appearance and book signing in San Diego this month? If so, would you please publish his itinerary? I would very much like to hear him speak and have him sign my copy of Amelia Earhart's Shoes. LTM, (who loves to camp on the sunny southern California beach in the dead of winter) Roger Kelley #2112CE ************************************************************************* From Ric Tom? ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2002 10:05:42 EST From: Kenton Spading Subject: Re: where to look Don N. wrote: >none of the TIGHAR expeditions so far have been able to make any direct >connection between the 'artifacts' that have been uncovered & anything >that may have originated with or from the Electra or it's crew... >raising honest questions as to how many additional, land-locked >expeditions (& at what cost) are going to be required to locate those >elusive bits & pieces of the Electra or it's crew, that might create a >preponderence of probably inconclusive evidence... Some very close/tantalizing connections have been between artifacts found in/near the Niku village and Earhart's Electra. I agree that these are not direct any-idiot connections...but they are pretty darn good indicators that there may be more stuff laying around and offer good reasons to conduct additional archaeological work in the village and surrounding area. Two artifacts in particular that were found in/near the village on Niku hold great promise that there is more to be found. In my opinion they are the two best pieces of evidence TIGHAR has found to date. In fact, they are, in my opinion, the only two existing physical pieces of evidence that anyone, anywhere in the world has ever found and been able to at least tentatively link to Earhart and the Electra. I speak of Artifact 2-18 (better known as the Dado) and Artifact 2-3-V-2 (better known as the Plexi). See TIGHAR Tracks Sept. 30, 1996, Vol. 12, No. 2/3 and the web site. The Dado artifact is a type of interior trim assembly commonly used on small cabin-class airplanes. The mounting holes for the Dado are 15 inches apart, which match the spacing of circumferentials, stiffeners etc. in an Electra M10. The LE M10 specs call for a cabin insulation called kapok which was often blue in color. The Dado had a piece of blue kapok-like material attached to it. Probable nail holes in the Dado provide an additional clue that I leave for the reader to discern. Lockheed specs show that the material, curvature and thickness of the Plexi artifact exactly match those specified for the cabin windows in the Electra. Many aspects of Artifact 2-2-V-1 (aircraft skin) are also interesting and deserve attention. 2-2-V-1 is much more paradoxical than the Dado or the Plexi. However, there are aspects of it that are hard to ignore like rivet type, rivet hole spacings, pitch of rivet lines etc. Many of The contradictions that 22V1 presents are softened by the the extensive modifications and repairs to C/N 1015. The same argument that says..."hold on, lets not jump into an underwater search until the 7-site work is finished" could have been applied to the village a few years ago when attention from it was shifted to other areas. My main point here is to illustrate that the land search portion of the project has provided some interesting physical clues. The Dado and the Plexi are pretty darn good. A decison to shift funds away from a search of the village to an underwater search is not a no-brainer. The trail of clues needs to be considered carefully. LTM Kenton Spading ************************************************************************** From Ric Amen. By the way, the nail holes (as opposed to rivet holes) in the right angle flange at the base of the Dado are for nailing the component to the floor of an aircraft. Obviously, that means that the aircraft in which it was installed had a wooden floor - as did NR16020. And despite all the controversy about rivet patterns, I still LOVE ol' 2-2-V-1. Anyone who has spent as much time as we have fondling airplane skin (don't knock it 'til you've tried it) knows that that chunk of aluminum just reeks Lockheed Model 10, and the damage it exhibits is EXACTLY the kind of damage to be expected from an airplane that was ripped apart in the surf. Add to that the fact that it was apparently dredged up out of the beach near the blasted channel by the big storm that hit the island soon after our 1989 trip and you start to wonder how many other shards of torn aluminum were buried in that beach and the beach further north before the storm stripped those beaches clean. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2002 10:12:39 EST From: Lee Subject: Re: March of Time I contacted a friend of mine who is involved with the radio archives at the University of Maryland.......and got this reply: "Thank you for the information on the TIGHAR site. It's an impressive site, particularly the material on AE. I didn't know you had such an interest in aviation history. Do you know Fay Gillis Wells? She is in her early 90's and was pioneer female aviator herself, knew AE personally. She was also a pioneer broadcaster and worked with her husband Linton Wells at CBS. Mrs. Wells lives in Alexandria last time I knew." Another friend of mine is going to be having lunch with Mrs. Wells next week......I'll have him ask her if she knows anything about the MOT broadcast......She might...especially if the MOT was a CBS show. It's a long shot....but........ -Lee **************************************************************************** From Ric Good to hear that Fay is still around. I've met her a couple of times but haven't talked to her recently. ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2002 10:20:20 EST From: Anthony Lealand Subject: Re: Image processing No, this technique does not need the PSF ( point spread function )of the optics. The article specifically says these are blind deconvolution techniques which rely solely on the image itself. It is clear on reading the article that the characteristics of the original optics are not needed. It is also clear that it is a very close second to techniques where the PSF is known. http://lfw.pennnet.com/Articles/Article_Display.cfm?Section=Archives&Subsection=Display&ARTICLE_ID=126937&x=y Anthony Lealand ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2002 09:55:18 EST From: Tom King Subject: Re: Tom King's itinerary For Roger Kelley and anyone else interested: Yes, I'm scheduled to do a talk and book signing in San Diego, CA on January 26th, beginning at 7:30 pm. Sponsored by the San Diego County Archaeological Society (which is charging something to cover costs -- probably about $5), it will be in Room 101, Cas del Prado Building, in the 1700 block of Village Place in Balboa Park. I'm also talking and signing on January 19 at the Museum of Flight in Seattle, at 2 pm in the william M. Allen Theater. Also on May 4 in my old home town of Petaluma, California (home of Chris From Petaluma), at the public library, but I don't have a time yet. LTM Tom King ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2002 10:06:16 EST From: Roger Kelley Subject: Video review... This morning I received and viewed my copy of TIGHAR'S Research Video #1, An Aerial Tour of Nikumaroro. The 25 minutes of commentary and aerial footage can only be discribed as: excellent, impressive, outstanding, and spectacular. A job well done! A must for every TIGHAR member! LTM, :-) Roger Kelley #2112CE ************************************************************************** From Ric We're presently making tapes and shipping them out via FedEx as fast as we can but the dubbing is a real-time process and can't go faster than the clock. We shipped 15 tapes on Friday and should be able to get another 30 or so out the door on Monday. We have a total of 67 tapes sold so far and, barring any breakdowns, they should all get shipped next week - except for the PAL tapes which will have to be done separately. This is TIGHAR's first in-house video production and your reviews and critiques are welcome. Over the years, the project has built up an extensive video library and we plan to offer many more of these Research Videos. Your input will help us make them better. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2002 11:13:11 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: Re: where to look Spading says that the two aircraft artifacts found at Niku are the only physical clues ever found on the face of the earth that can be linked to Amelia. They certainly may be linked to the Electra, but there is one other piece of physical evidence extant. Buddy Brennan discovered a "blindfold" in his dig at Saipan in the exact spot that Blas saw a white women matching Amelia's description executed with a shot to the head. The extraordinary aspect is that prior to the dig, Blas described the spot and the circumstances of the Japanese ripping a blindfold off and throwing it in the grave. Maybe the other bones were missed by a few few feet, speculated Brennan. The cloth , he said, was made of cotton fabric consistant with fabrics in general use in the early 40s.It was at least 50 years old. I would consider that at "tenative" link to Amelia, but as in the Tighar artifacts not conclusive. No forensic authentification yet from a labortory. Informal forensic opinion confirmed that the cloth could have survived the 40 years in that particular soil,claimed Brennan. As far as I know the blindfold is still in the Brennan family. Ron Bright **************************************************************************** From Ric <> Nope. What Brennan says he was told by what he called "the Smithsonian Institute" (it's the Smithsonian Institution) is that: "The cloth is made of cotton fiber, consistent with fabrics in general use during the '40s. There is nothing to indicate it was woven more recently than fifty years ago." In other words, it's just a piece of cotton cloth. It could be fifty or five years old. It has always struck me as odd that the anecdote claims that the blindfold was removed and thrown into the grave prior to the execution. Many execution procedures, including those practiced by the Japanese during WWII, involved blindfolds - but execution was always performed with the blindfold in place. Removing the blindfold would seem to negate the purpose of having it there at all - i.e. to make the executionee more tractable while the sentence is being carried out. One of Brennan's companions offered a speculative cultural explanation having to do with the Japanese wanting to give Amelia a chance to "validate her life" by "facing her executioners" but the cynic in me has to wonder if Mrs. Blas' story was embellished after-the-fact to include the removed blindfold. An audio or video tape of the original interview would be nice. Brennan says that the piece of cotton cloth was specifically made as a blindfold. ("It was not a random scrap of torn cloth. It had been cut to a distinct pattern; portions of a stitched hem were faintly discernable. The top was cut straight and measured slightly over 24 inches in length. It was the bottom portion that puzzled us. The center segment was a uniform width of about six or eight inches, but on each side it had been cut in even arcs to form thin bands at the top.") To compare the alleged blindfold to the aircraft parts found on Nikumaroro you'd have to establish that such blindfolds were made by the Japanese rather than the simple bands of cloth seen in photos of Japanese executions. Mrs. Blas story has other problems. She describes the woman prisoner when first brought to Garapan Prison as wearing "a watch, some rings, and some kind of medal." Amelia wore a watch but never wore rings and certainly not a medal. Brennan found an unidentified scrap of cloth of unknown age, but no clothing or bones or anything else, in a hole that was alleged to be a grave. To call that an artifact that can reasonably be linked to Amelia Eahart is a bit of a stretch. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2002 11:18:03 EST From: Angus Murray Subject: Re: Image processing Unfortunately the address string is broken in the original posting. It should read http://lfw.pennnet.com/Articles/Article_Display.cfm?Section=Archives&Subsection=Display&ARTICLE_ID=126937&x=y and indeed the process looks as though it might be very useful for Tighar. (You'll have to point out that one needs to reassemble the string to get the URL to work.) Regards Angus *************************************************************************** From ric I've asked Jeff Glickman (our forensic imaging guru) to look at the article and let me know what he thinks. Jeff is on the cutting edge of this stuff. ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2002 11:29:14 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Re: what should be done >And if we want an engine -- there's always Kanton'... > >Tom King But that's only _one_ engine, (buried under tons of diverse types of debris, including, no doubt, quite a few old aircraft engines ) the Electra had _two_ engines... & according to the TIGHAR hypothesis, _both_ of them were swept off the reef-flat, into the ocean...where I think we might be able to reasonably assume...they would be the _only_ aircraft engines found. >the example he used of the passionate planelike pixels on the reef >was an excellent one. If you don't strike it rich when you go for broke >-- well, people think you're broke, whether you really are or not'... ...of course it was TIGHAR that made the satellite 'pixels' front-page news... somewhat prematurely as it turned out... even so, it did seem to motivate greater publicity & enthusiasm for TIGHAR iiii... >...'As for the fact that we haven't yet definitively linked up an >artifact from the village with the Earhart plane -- that's hardly >surprising, considering that most parts of the plane would not be >definitively identifiable as such and that we've never really given the >village a thorough search'... I think we can agree, the 'other' Electra engine (the most readily identifiable & universally acceptable _proof_ that the Electra &/or AE/FN _did_ (in fact) land on or near Gardner/Nikumaroro Island) will not be found lying under the knee-deep, rotting fronds & nuts in the village... it's just not the type of 'salvagable' material the average Central Pacific villager would have carted home... ...Since we can apparently only agree to disagree (agreeably I trust), I'll not pursue this thread any further, as I _do_ agree that the cost of pursuing visual, deep-water exploration off the reef-flat, would no doubt be prohibitive for TIGHAR, unless there is an extremely wealthy 'angel' out there somewhere, who would be willing to underwrite the costs of such a venture, without turning it into any commercial 'circus'. Don Neumann *************************************************************************** From Ric Allow me to correct one misconception. TIGHAR never put out a press release or actively sought publicity about the anomalous pixels in the satellite photo. It was Space Imaging Corp. (the folks who took the picture) who put out a press release which was picked up by the NASA website and soon it seemed like the whole world was talking about "the photo of airplane wreckage on the reef." We acknowledged that we were intrigued by the coincidence of the anomaly's location and Emily's report of seeing wreckage in that same spot in 1940, but I spent most of my time trying to explain that the anomaly in the photo is NOT what had prompted our upcoming expedition and that while we HOPED that it would turn out to be the long-sought Electra we certainly didn't EXPECT that it would be that easy. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 08:17:51 EST From: Chris Strohmeyer Subject: Electra cabin photos I'm about 1/2 through with Tom Kings book "Amelia Earhart's Shoes". Concerning the aluminum box you have that presumably carried Noonan's charts, and the "dado", seems hard to believe that there were no detailed photos of the inside of the Electra taken just before their trek. With such a historical flight about to unfold, just seems that the press would have been very interested in the special modifications of the plane especially the interior (to see how AE and Noonan had to function in such tight quarters, the extra fuel tanks installed, radio equipment, etc). To date are there any? If not, seems likely that there would be somewhere! Chris in Petaluma, Ca (Tom King's home town) ************************************************************************ From Ric Keep reading. The aluminum box is from a B-24. The dado, on the other hand, is a very nice piece of evidence. Several photos of the Electra's cabin layout were taken in March 1937 just prior to the first World Flight attempt when AE and GP were hyping the trip and hosting all the press they could get. There are, consequently, a number of photos showing AE and Harry Manning in the cabin amongst the navigational gear in the "navigators room." After the debacle in Hawaii, Harry bailed, Noonan stayed on, and AE, wishing to avoid another embarrassment, kept a very low media profile right up until her departure from Miami. One result is that images of what the inside of the cabin looked like after the repairs are extremely rare. All that stuff had to come out in order to fix the airframe and it is said that Noonan had no use for the elborate set-up that Manning and Mantz had designed. There is a common misconception that the March photos and descriptions of the "navigator's room" represent what the airplane was like at the time it disappeared, but the truth is - nobody knows. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 08:20:22 EST From: Doug Brutlag Subject: Anomalous Pixels Did you ever figure out what the anomalous pixels were in the NASA photo? Was it wreckage from the Norwhich City? Doug Brutlag #2335 ************************************************************************** From Ric It's a big anomalous patch of red algae. Even looking over the side of a skiff right above it you'd think it was rusty metal, but it's not. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 08:26:03 EST From: Tom King Subject: Buddy's Blindfold Buddy Brennan's blindfold is something that archeologists working on Saipan laugh about. The whole Garapan area was (a) the site of a major Japanese city; (b) bombarded into rubble before and during the invasion, and (c) very heavily bulldozed to make way for American facilities in the latter part of the War, to say nothing of what's happened to it since (ironically enough, it's now a thriving town again, with an economy largely driven by Japanese tourism). The soil of the whole place is full of cloth, wood, bones, and every other kind of artifact. It would be hard to dig anywhere and not come up with something that, with a tad of imagination, one couldn't link to Earhart. Tom King *************************************************************************** From Ron Bright The trouble with Blas's story is what happened to the handcuffs that went in to the grave with her. If you haven't seen the Brennan tape with Blas gesturing about the execution and pointing to THE spot you are missing the Marshall Island Top 10 movie. The other bothersome point is if Buddy Brennan was so darn sure that it was the blindfold of AE;s as described by Blas, someone in this wide world would have conducted extensive forensic tests at an independent lab for hair, material, construction, stitching, Japanese blindfold type/pattern comparisons, DNA from AE;s tears? or hairs? As far as I know it hasn't been done. Ron B. ************************************************************************** From Ric It all comes back to what we've been saying all along. The fact that the Earhart disappearance has remained a mystery for so long says much more about the people trying to solve it than it does about the mystery. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 08:42:03 EST From: Angus Murray Subject: Re: what should be done As I see it, the argument is not just between a hyperexpensive deep water search and a more moderate cost land-based search. There is in fact a third way, i.e. to search the reef canyons around especially the southern part of the island. This type of search would only be an extension of the thorough search already made around the northern part of the island and as such would be no more expensive. I believe it would have a good chance of success in finding the second engine. The steelwork of the Norwich City has a high area to volume ratio which means that wave action can easily move very heavy plating large distances. The radial engine is relatively compact and the photos of engines on the beach/reef in the Gilberts show that they move little from their original positions. The engine Bruce found had remained on the reef for over thirty years. I think there is an excellent chance that the second engine is not in very deep water. Once the engine was washed into the deeper canyon areas it would not be subject to the high surf-generated forces and more than likely remain where it was. A good compromise would be to continue the thorough reef search started on Niku IV whilst simultaneously exploring the village areas for more salvaged components once work at the seven site was completed. Regards Angus *************************************************************************** From Ric Searching the reef canyons on the southern part of the island doesn't make sense to me because: - all of our anecdotal and photographic clues about an airplane wreck on the reef are focused at the west end near the shipwreck. - the only way anything would stay in one of those canyons for very long is if it was jammed and wedged in there. The forces generated in those canyons during storms must be incredible. - searching reef canyons, even in calm weather, is inherently dangerous and there are hundreds if not thousands of canyons along that reef. A three person dive team is minimal and that is still 25 percent of a typical TIGHAR expedition team. I think we have to concentrate our efforts on places where we KNOW there is stuff to be found. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 08:44:16 EST From: Jim Walrath Subject: Viretic Twitch I have a concern for Don Neumann's health. He seems to have developed a twitch or hiccup that has been quite persistent and is manifested in his postings. Because these things could be caused by a virus, until Don is in better health, I will have to scroll past his postings rapidly so exposure to the contaminant will be minimized, thus lessening possible irritation to the reader. However, a cure is available, which is not so of practically all viruses. In the way-back years of seventh and eighth grade grammar the discovery was made that proper sentence structure and good punctuation are good for the English language and may cure written maladies. Don's postings add dimension to the Forum and I wish him a speedy recovery. Jim Walrath ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 08:54:01 EST From: Andrew McKenna Subject: 2-2-V-1 I was thinking about artifact 2-2-V-1, the large piece of aircraft skin that was found in 1997 (?). I know that you have examined several surviving Electras and tried to match this artifact with their skins, but was Linda Finch's Electra one of them? If memory serves, she wouldn't talk to TIGHAR and didn't let us near her aircraft. Not that our friend Mike Kammerer owns this aircraft, is there a possibility of taking a closer look at it with an eye to matching 2-2-V-1? Andrew McKenna 1045CE ************************************************************************* From Ric The Former Finch Electra is c/n 1015 and we (meaning TIGHARs Kenton Spading and Veryl Fenlason) thoroughly inspected it while it was still in storage in Wisconsin before Finch bought it and rebuilt it as an NR16020 look-alike. As we did with several other existing Electras, a "rubbing" of its belly skins and rivets was made from which a mylar overlay was constructed. I therefore have the bellies of a half dozen Lockheed 10s rolled up in a big tube in the basement (how many people can say THAT?). ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 08:56:44 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Outside article Just finished reading Stephen Titus' article in the January issue of ...'Outside'... magazine, titled... 'Hypothesis#1: Hypothesis#2: & Hypothesis#3: ...'Who Cares?..We're Having a Hellava Good Time Not Finding Her ! Kind of an irreverent, humorous slant on the latest efforts to locate AE & her illusive Electra...mainly featuring the antics of multi-millionaire, Mike Kammerer & his efforts to 'hedge' all his bets on the race to find AE & her Electra... including his _own_ expediton...still in the 'planning' stage at date of the magazine's publication. Nothing new or surprising revealed about the 'nuts & bolts' of the respective exploratory efforts already planned or actually underway...however, it does provide some interesting insights into Mr. Kammerer's 'back-stage' efforts to gain control of the media rights & to fully exploit the results & 'discoveries' of the several projects already underway...including considerable mention & discussion of Kammerer's interest in TIGHAR's Earhart Search Project... claiming he 'purchased' the media rights to anything TIGHAR discovers/uncovers until December 2003, for $300,000. Particularly of interest was the fact that Mr. Kammerer claims to have offered to underwrite the Jourdan/Dettweiler/ Nautico's, 'deep-water' exploratory efforts & even wrote a $300,000 check as a 'down-payment'... with a promisory note for $2.2 million, covering the full cost of their endeavor... but Jourdan turned him down, insisting that Kammerer's exploitive efforts would only interfere with Nautico's main objective... successfully locating the Electra...as opposed to creating media capital for Kammerer. Kammerer seems fully 'sold' on the Long's 'splashed at sea' hypothesis & insists he'll arrange & fund his own 'deep-water' expedition, because he's been unable to 'sell' his _own_ plans to exploit the AE/Electra 'find' for commercial marketing purposes (like any other commodity) to anyone else. He also plans to publish his _own_ one-shot magazine sometime in February, aptly named ...'Amelia'..., which he insists will be the...'definitive' authority on the search for her & her plane! ... I can hardly wait ! Don Neumann ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 09:03:12 EST From: David Kelly Subject: Historic preservation Something completely off topic, I have recently come across some interesting comments in an Australian aviation mag regarding restoration vs refurbishment vs replica aircraft and it occurred to me that you may have some information on standards and the like on how one defines the difference. I thought I may do some digging and respond to the article as there are many parallels between this topic with aircraft and buildings which is where I have some background (my thesis was on restoration of historic facades). Regards David **************************************************************************** From Ric Off topic, but always interesting. You would probably find our Guide to Aviation Historic Preservation Terminology interesting. It's the smallest, least expensive (US$8.50 to members), and possibly the most important publication we've ever put out. You can order it on the TIGHAR website at http://www.tighar.org/TIGHAR_20store/tigharstore.html ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 09:04:52 EST From: Tom King Subject: Re: what should be done I'll agree to disagree agreeably, too, and only add that I'd prefer going after the Kanton engine to looking for one off the reef face only because we know pretty precisely where to look for the Kanton engine, and if we found it, and found that it was from the Electra, it would put the crashed and sank hypothesis firmly to bed. We'd still not know for certain where the plane came down, but at least we'd know it wasn't under thousands of feet of water. And the Kanton dump would be a whole lot easier to dig than an expansive piece of the Niku reef face would be to search. But I'd prefer more work at the Seven Site and the village to either one, and before I did ANYTHING more on the island, if I had my druthers, I'd do a whole lot more historical and oral historical research in Fiji, Funafuti, the Solomons, Kiribati, and England. TK ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 09:11:48 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: Re: Video review... How much are the Vidoes of Niku Air tour? Clergy discount? *************************************************************************** From Ric Fifty dollars and that's the Clergy Discount. The video is only available to members of TIGHAR and any TIGHAR member is, by definition, "clergy." ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 09:57:50 EST From: Alexander Subject: Re: Outside article Is there any truth to his (Kammerer's) claims on DISCOVERIES and other RIGHTS ? *************************************************************************** From Ric Kammerer purchased the commercial exploitation rights to any new information developed by TIGHAR during the period of the contract (Jan. 2000 to Dec. 2003). So far, he has not expressed any interest in commercially exploiting any of the information developed to date during that period. He has no rights to the artifacts themselves and he has no say whatsoever in how TIGHAR conducts its affairs or services its membership. In other words, he paid $300,000 for very limited rights that he is not using. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 09:59:00 EST From: Dennis McGee Subject: belly rubbings Ric said: As we did with several other existing Electras, a "rubbing" of its belly skins and rivets was made from which a mylar overlay was constructed. I therefore have the bellies of a half dozen Lockheed 10s rolled up in a big tube in the basement (how many people can say THAT?). I'm not an Electra 10E, but if anyone rubs my belly I'll give up all my secrets! LTM, who's purr-fectly content Dennis O. McGee #0149EC ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 10:08:26 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: Re: Viretic Twitch For Jim W. I thought that the Tighar Forum was more interested in solving the Earhart mystery then taking potshots at Neuman's grammar and punctuation. I for one find his postings intelligent analyses and one who has contributed to the diversity and depth of this Forum. Ron Bright ************************************************************************** From Ric Gentlemen.... I decided long ago not to moderate this forum as an English teacher. My own house is too glassy to be throwing many bricks. Content is what we're interested in, and the language and grammar an individual uses in communicating his or her thoughts is the context in which others judge their worth. Let the words fall where they may. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 10:18:28 EST From: David Chase Subject: More on the Anomalous Pixels I know you are sensitive to too much clutter on the forum (and as a card carrying member, I absolutely support your seasoned judgment in sifting through the emails!) so if this question has been answered before, please ignore it! On the question of the anomalous pixels - surely the question has occurred to you and others as to why the anomaly is where it is. If the algae are plentiful, why are they no where else on the photo in such a conspicuous & observable cluster? Is it possible that something that decayed or oxidized in the water at that location promoting their growth? (presumably, some remnant of the oxidation might also still be there for the effect to linger?) If so, are there any samples that could be analyzed and compared to other such algae from other nearby locations? I know the analysis would be a stretch, but it's still one hell of a coincidence and if the smoke is still there, maybe the remnants of the fire are as well in one form or another. Dave Chase *************************************************************************** From Ric Actually, that thought had not occurred to us (or at least to me or anyone I've talked to). I don't know enough about what makes algae grow to know if there might be anything to it. As you say, it seems like there has to be some reason why a big patch grew there and nowhere else. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 10:33:11 EST From: Christy Creyts Subject: Re: Amelia Earhart recreation, March of Time, July 8,1937 I just cold-called Ronald Staley and he answered the phone...he does have the MoT recording. He says his copy is deteriorating and he needs to re-dub (re-transcribe, I think) from the original. He expressed a general interest in the Tighar research efforts and said he has gotton LOTS of calls. On the other hand, he indicated he knew of several pieces of compelling evidence inline with the Amelia-abducted theories. So... I think, judging from his interest level and, more significantly, his perception of tighar's (and other's?) interest level, funding may persuade him to either send a copy of his current version or re-transcribe. He's given me his personal email address to send more information (definitely the tighar url), etc. I didn't want to post his private address to the world but I am happy to pass the address to the "correct" person(s) or continue on. christy creyts#2087 (back in the fold!!!) ************************************************************************* From Ric There is nothing in the TIGHAR budget for bribing this guy into sharing information (we just don't do that), but if there are legitimate costs associated with copying or transcribing the tape we could probably find a donor who would be willing to cover them. You seem to have had more luck than anyone so far. Perhaps you are the correct person to follow up with Mr. Staley. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 12:05:37 EST From: Tom King Subject: Video The video just arrived in the mail and went promptly into the VCR. Very well done! Really a highly professional -- one might even say slick -- job. The narration and in-cuts put the whole thing in context, and very neatly use the "tour" to summarize the hypothesis and our pursuit of it. My only minor unhappiness with it is that I think you might have been a bit less dismissive about the shoe and a bit more cautious about the sex and ethnicity of the castaway. I don't think we ought to dismiss the former on the basis of one debatable piece of comparative data, and by the same token I don't think we should seem so sure about the latter based on a very post-hoc re-analysis of a set of bone measurements. But these are quibbles. One thing I found interesting was this: when the helicopter made its pass over the Seven Site most of us were en route from the site to the lagoon shore, along the substantial trail that Jim Morissey had cut through the Scaevola. We could clearly see the chopper, and waved, flipped birds, etc., but we are nowhere at all to be seen in the video, even though Mark appears to have scanned right over us. Another indication of just how hard it would have been for Lambrecht to have seen anybody lurking in the bush near (or not so near) his "signs of recent habitation." Congratulations; I can't wait for the sequel. LTM TK *************************************************************************** From Ric Thanks. Of course, I will quibble with your quibbles. I do think that the Aukeraime shoe is dead in the water, and not just because of the size problem verified in Glickman's analysis of the foot-on-the-wing photo. All of the photos showing AE wearing her blucher oxfords around the time of the World Flight (and there are about a dozen) consistently show that the "inside" part of the heel is light colored while the "outside" part is dark. It took us a long time to realize that what we're looking at is a rather odd two-tone heel but it's sure not like the solid-colored Cat's Paw heel, or the other heel, we found on the island. Add to that the fact that the shoe parts we found are in the "wrong" place (if the Seven Site hypothesis is correct) and that the fire they were found beside has been dated to not-earlier-than the 1970s, and you have a situation where, in order to keep the Aukeraime shoe(s) as pieces of the Earhart puzzle, you have to construct convoluted scenarios for which there is no supporting evidence. Yes, anything is possible and new information could come to light that would bring the Aukeraime shoe back into the fold, but at this point I think it's realistic to acknowledge that - like the navigators bookcase, the cruciform object on the Nutiran shore, and the anomalous pixels in the satellite photo - it's something that looked really good but didn't pan out. As for the sex of the castaway(s), recall that Gallagher and Steenson both identified shoe remnants found with the bones as being from a woman's shoe. Steenson says that part of a man's shoe was also present. Post-hoc bone measurement analysis aside, in order to NOT have a woman castaway on the island you have to construct a scenario where a man has one shoe that is later identified as a man's shoe AND a shoe that is later identified by two independent observers as a woman's shoe. Yes, it's possible, but saying that the available evidence suggests the presence of a man and a woman marooned and dying on the island is hardly a stretch. I'm glad that the video production looks good. We try very hard to put out high quality informational products - whether they be on the web, in print, or this newest venture into video. It's ironic that when we succeed the adjective "slick" often comes up - as if our credibility would somehow be enhanced if our work was pedestrian or amateurish. I'll take slick as a compliment. :-) LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 12:26:24 EST From: Terry Lee Simpson Subject: Re: what should be done Was thinking about what Tom King said about the Kanton engine.Why would you need a backhole,is the area that needs to be dug up that large.Why could'nt you take a plane load of shovels over there and hire some local people to dig,if there hurting for work they may love the chance to make a few bucks.maybe it could be done a whole lot cheaper this way,also why worry about bringing it back right now,wait tell you find it,you could just bring back the crank and cam with the serial numbers. This way you would'nt need such a large plane also cutting cost.Any way Ric we could put it to rest,if it is or is'nt. Also Ric and Forum whats been buging me is that Bruce(who found the engine if memory serves me right) he could not remember what island he found it on,he also said in a interview he did not know who A.E. was at time he found the engine.How could an airplane wrench not know who A.E. was,it seems unlikely,with that said how far can you trust his memory on which engine he found,this is said with all do respect to Bruce,I know he just wants to help as we all do(LTM)Terry Lee Simpson#2396. ****************************************************************************** From Ric We've considered the manual labor approach. Shoveling coral rubble is no fun at all but it can be done. Lord knows we've done our share on Niku. The problem is time. One of the biggest costs is lay-over time for the airplane and crew. In '98 we were there for only two nights. Digging the site by hand, even with a gang of people, would probably involve at least a week. By the time you've paid to have a big airplane sit idle for a week you might as well have chartered an even bigger airplane and brought a backhoe that would do the job in a day. Bruce was just out of airframe and engine mechanic's school and was very familiar with R985s and R1340s because they had been used in the school. Surprising as it may seem to us, not every airplane person knows about, of gives two cents about, Amelia Earhart. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 12:27:37 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Re: Viretic Twitch >From Jim Walrath >...'I have a concern for Don Neumann's health. He seems to have >developed a twitch or hiccup that has been quite persistent and is >manifested in his postings'... My health is just fine... you may if you wish... rapidly scoll through my humble postings...! Gee... & I've always thought...it was just this 'hair-trigger' key-board I've been using...when what I really need to do is repeat 7th & 8th grade grammar classes...! Thanks Jim...& good health to you...! In all...good... humor, Don Neumann ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 12:41:39 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Publicity coup >From Ric >...'Allow me to correct one misconception. TIGHAR never put out a press >release or actively sought publicity about the anomalous pixels in the >satellite photo. It was Space Imaging Corp. (the folks who took the >picture) who put out a press release which was picked up by the NASA >website and soon it seemed like the whole world was talking about "the >photo of airplane wreckage on the reef." Ric, I think you are being far too modest in not accepting well deserved credit for an outstanding publicity & public relations coup ! The on-line press release from Space Imaging makes no mention of 'anomalous pixels' in their outstanding space photo of Nikumaroro Island, although they do provide a very complementary write-up of TIGHAR's involvement in the search for AE. Space Imaging - Image of the Week Address:http://www.spaceimaging.com/gallery/ioweek/archive/iow070801/iow070801.htm Don Neumann *************************************************************************** From Ric Here's exactly what happened. As part of our deal for a reduced price on the satellite photo, I agreed to make a personal appearance and presentation at the Space Imaging booth at a trade show in San Diego. Space Imaging's press release was timed to coincide with that show. While I was there, a reporter from the NASA website phoned and wanted to interview me. By then the whole anomalous pixels thing had come up within TIGHAR (and on this forum) and, for something to talk about, I described it to the NASA reporter - shouting into a borrowed cell phone on the convention floor with my finger stuck in my other ear. The rest is history. The extensive play that the story got was due, more than anything else, to the almost total absence of any other news in the world last July. Two missing women - Amelia Earhart and Chandra Levy - were all there was to talk about. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 13:43:43 EST From: Greg Subject: Red Algae Just an odd idea here. Did you bring back a sample of the red algae for chemical analysis? I was thinking that maybe these represent a high level of iron from ??? If I remember the comments about the Titanic, the ocean dissolves iron into Ferric Chloride. Maybe the anomalous pixels represent the chemical signature of something. Greg ************************************************************************* From Ric No sample was collected. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 13:44:25 EST From: Kenton Spading Subject: What should be Done Tom K wrote: >But I'd prefer more work at >the Seven Site and the village to either one, and before I did ANYTHING more >on the island, if I had my druthers, I'd do a whole lot more historical and >oral historical research in Fiji, Funafuti, the Solomons, Kiribati, and >England. Yes, Historical and oral research have been a big help so far. There almost certainly is more information out there that can help us. LTM Kenton Spading ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 13:46:37 EST From: Dan Postellon Subject: No Subject Pacific water is very iron-poor. Did you scrape off any of the red algae? Dan Postellon TIGHAR #2263 (the renewal check is in the mail. Send me a video, too.) ******************************************************************** From Ric Maybe one of the divers could comment on this. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 13:57:55 EST From: Skeet Gifford Subject: Re: More on the Anomalous Pixels >From Ric > >Actually, that thought had not occurred to us (or at least to me or anyone >I've talked to). I don't know enough about what makes algae grow to know if >there might be anything to it. As you say, it seems like there has to be >some reason why a big patch grew there and nowhere else. Having seen the anomaly up close and personal, I'll admit to (as Human Factors people might say) a Confirmation Bias. I was anticipating some sort of airplane structure-shaped blob. Absent that, it did not occur to me that something unique may have been there to cause the anomaly. One thing's for sure...it's slicker than snot out there. ************************************************************************** From Ric Now, up on the reef flat you have yer yellow algae - like Skeet says, slicker'n snot. If you're not real careful you can fall on your butt quicker than you can say "anomalous pixel." 'Cept it ain't everywheres. My recollection is that it mostly seems to be associated with the part of the reef where the shipwreck debris has been scattered - leading one to suspect that there may be some kind of association between the oxidation of metal and the growth of algae. Now, yer red algae - the only place I know of where we've seen that is right there where the anomaly is in the satellite photo. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 14:26:16 EST From: Chris Kennedy Subject: Re: Amelia Earhart recreation, March of Time, July 8,1937 Could you and Tom King let us know what things are "in the TIGHAR budget" and funded as budgeted items from general funds available, and what is not "in the TIGHAR budget" and requires a third party "donor" to specially fund before the work is done? It seems that TIGHAR is saying that transcription costs for this MOT work would require a donor to fund them specifically (like I did, at your request, for the Bevington photo work). Hence, this work and its costs arenot "in the TIGHAR budget". What costs are "in the TIGHAR budget" and would not require a donor to fund them specifically? Thanks, --Chris Kennedy **************************************************************************** From Ric Since you asked.....at present TIGHAR is in what we euphemistically call "survival mode." It's when there isn't enough money to pay basic operating expenses and we have to decide which creditors will wait and which ones we have to pay this month or something bad will happen. This sort of thing has been a fact of life for this organization from the beginning. There are relatively fat times, as when the economy was booming and Kammerer was paying for his media rights and we were fund-raising for the Niku IIII expedition; and there are lean times, as when there's no big sexy expedition coming up soon and we're doing boring old research and the economy is in the toilet. With no endowment and a relatively small membership base, TIGHAR has always been a hunting and gathering society. Sometimes you can bring down a mammoth but most of the time you live on ground squirrels and the occasional wild ass. We don't like it, and I WILL say that as the organization grows in size and strength, the tough times get farther apart - but this is one of the tough times. That's why the Aerial Tour video, and others to come, are so important to us right now. They make great squirrel stew while we're hunting for the next mammoth. Does that answer your question? LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 14:30:12 EST From: Phil Tanner Subject: Re: what should be done Another thing about Kanton must be the number of people available locally to do any digging. The island was in the news recently when a (frankly, hare-brained) scheme was put forward to use it as a transit point for asylum-seekers hoping to get to Australia. Apparently the current population is only around 30, in family groups. LTM Phil 2276 ************************************************************************** From Ric And if the distribution is typical of the rest of Kiribati about two thirds of them are little kids. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 14:31:00 EST From: Jon Watson Subject: Re: Publicity coup I hope it isn't sixty years before they get as close to finding Chandra Levy as we are to finding Amelia........ ltm jon ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 08:41:42 EST From: Jon Watson Subject: Shoe heel color I also have noticed the two-tone appearance of the heels, but I wouldn't be too quick to discredit the found heel. What it looks like to me is that AE's heels are built up a bit - which could be very consistent with a lady's shoes. I know that when they re-heel my cowboy boots (okay, I live in Colorado) which have a built-up heel, they don't replace the entire heel, just the lower worn-out part. Seems to me that this is probably the case with the Blucher Oxfords. They probably didn't have light colored replacement heels at the local cobbler, and simply replaced the lower (worn out) part with (dare I suggest it) a standard black Cat's Paw of the appropriate size.... Just as an aside, I'm glad the question was asked about the algae, I have to admit that same question (about why that algae was there and nowhere else) went through my mind as well some time back, but I wasn't alert enough to ask. Things that make you say "Hmmmmmm". ltm, jon 2266 ************************************************************************** From Ric <> Except that would have to have happened sometime between Bandoeng, Java and the departure from Lae about ten days later. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 08:46:48 EST From: Roger Kelley Subject: Canton engine. Search the Canton Island "dump" for the lost engine? It is very likely that TIGHAR would find one of AE's engines. What a great find it would be! However, several years ago as I recall and please correct me if I'm wrong, information was developed by various TIGHAR members and posted on this forum, to the effect that when the Air Force closed down their operations on Canton in the seventies, very little effort was made to remove or naturalize vast amounts toxic waists introduced by the military into the island environment. The Air Force simply dug a large pit, buried all of their junk and their toxic waist, and flew off into the wild blue yonder. That pit is located in the immediate area where the subject engine was last seen. If TIGHAR should excavate the Canton dump, should TIGHAR be held responsible for the proper disposal of any toxic materials it discovers? I would predict that those governmental agencies with jurisdiction over Canton would jump at the opportunity to exercise their authority and force TIGHAR clean up the mess left by the Air Force at TIGHAR's expense. We must not forget the unwritten law by which governmental agencies operate is "If you find it, you dispose of it. If you don't want to dispose of it, then don't dig it up!" I doubt that TIGHAR has funds for such an undertaking should a worse case scenario develop while digging on Canton Island. As intriguing as a well organized and coordinated search for one of the 10 E's engines on Canton sounds, I would suggest that a very low priority level be assigned to such an adventure until unlimited funds are available. LTM, Roger Kelley *************************************************************************** From Ric Actually, they didn't even bother to bury a lot of the toxic stuff. It's still just laying around. No way to know if anything toxic got buried in the dump where Bruce says he left the engine. The place is a mess. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 09:07:54 EST From: Alexander Subject: FBI investigation i know its off topic but a contact i have in the fbi told me where she was and the whole story.they were investigating it then soon after 911 happened and like other investigations it seems to have been buried. ************************************************************************** From Ric What the FBI was investigating was whether a dark stain on the button we found at the Seven Site in 1996 was caused by contact with rotting flesh. The FBI lab ran tests and found no sign of blood but did find DNA, however the strands were incomplete and ambiguous - almost certainly the result of the button being handled by many people after it was recovered. The agency agreed to work on the button last spring and we received the serology (blood) report in June. The attacks in September may have delayed the DNA work somewhat, but not much. We received that report in October. What you probably heard was a rumor started by somebody who had heard a skewed version of the work the agency was doing for TIGHAR. That's usually how these things get started. Twenty years from now somebody will write a book about the FBI's secret investigation of the Earhart disappearance. By the way, we're not through with that button. The FBI only took a surface swab. If the stain was absorbed into the surface at all, we may be able to get an uncontaminated sample for DNA testing. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 09:13:16 EST From: Chris Kennedy Subject: Re: Amelia Earhart recreation, March of Time, July 8,1937 Hmmm, not good......yes, that does answer the question. I don't know how the book is doing, but something which also might help temporarily is to "sell" TIGHAR's right to receive proceeds from future sales. For example, let's say TIGHAR is entitled to receive $1 for each book sold. Since no one knows how many books will be sold in the future, no one knows how much TIGHAR will ultimately receive, or how much the publisher would've received but for the obligation to give $1 per book to TIGHAR . Thus, TIGHAR might be willing to sell it's right to receive all future payments for some number of dollars, and the publisher might be willing to pay this, betting that ultimately he will sell more than enough books to cover the payment. Just a suggestion, and I understand there may be complications in the arrangement of which I am not aware that preclude it. --Chris *************************************************************************** From Ric Are you sure you never worked for ENRON? :-) ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 09:17:15 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: March of Time Ronald Staley has told that story that he has the MOT broadcast tape (?) for about a year, Deteriorating, etc.,needs to make a new dub. Good luck. Several of us have emailed him, contacted him, etc., but nothing ever comes from our pleas. Of course we would cover copying fees. He may be the only and last guy to have the 8 July 37 MOT. I have received a tape of a MOT broadcast but it was in Dec 37. It is about two and half minutes long, with a recreation of Itasca calling Earhart. Static etc, with the announcer in March of Time fashion, saying "That is the last message the world recieved from Amelia Earhart".Music. Very dramatic. I shall transcribe what I can, but the recreation was so good the Earhart voice is full of static, and may be impossible without voice enhancements. ************************************************************************** From Ric I wonder if March of Time dramatizations always included music. None of the alleged post-loss receptions reported music. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 09:27:08 EST From: Amanda Dunham Subject: squirrels du jour Well here are a few more squirrels for the pot and no thanks, I just ate. Last week I increased my biweekly (that means every two weeks, right?) payments to $40. Over the next 25 pay periods, that comes to $1000 - Patron level. Amanda #2418 *************************************************************************** From Ric Bless your heart. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 09:41:01 EST From: David Chase Subject: Red algae and iron The links below are high level info, but interesting. I've emailed a couple algae specialists asking for some professional advice as well, we'll see where it goes! Here are a couple links briefly discussing iron as a nutrient for red algae: From: http://www.thekrib.com/Plants/Algae/red-algae.html "While iron is needed for good growth of all plants, including algae, excess amounts will merely be extra food for algae and help it to thrive." and From: http://www.geolsoc.org.uk/template.cfm?name=SaharaDust "Storm activity in the Sahara Desert region kicks up fine particles from the arid topsoil there, generating vast clouds of dust. Easterly trade winds carry the dust across the Atlantic Ocean and into the Gulf of Mexico. The new study shows that these clouds fertilize the water off the West Florida coast with iron. Plant-like bacteria use that iron to set the stage for red tides. When iron levels go up, these bacteria, called Trichodesmium, fix nitrogen in the water, converting it to a form usable by other marine life." So the theory goes that the red tides we've heard about all these years are caused by airborne dust containing iron!!!!! It's interesting to speculate that a rusting Electra engine(s) might also be responsible for an effect like this, but I'd sure like to know: 1. why iron tends to promote mostly red algae growth; 2. why there's no red algae concentrations around where the ship ran aground; 3. why there isn't more red algae concentrations generally seen elsewhere around the island. Dave Chase *************************************************************************** From Ric Curiouser and curiouser. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 09:46:01 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: March of Time Here is a tape recording of a March of Time broadcast made in Dec 1937. I don't know if it is a rebroadcast, or if it is a second version, or if it is indeed the original broadcast later. The tape is about 2 minutes long. No doubt it is the MOT with the dramatic voices and music. Much static and music over the voices at time. Here is the best I can get so far: Announcer: Somewhere in the south pacific inside the Itasca radio room. Voice 1: ITASCA calling KHAQQ , calling Amelia Earhart. Direction finder frequency 550-270. Please transmit on 500 kilocycles so we can cut you in, KHAQQ go a head. Voice 2: She can't be far away, she may have over shot us. EARHART: ITASCA....searching...(unintelligible).....Howland..... Voice 2 : Can''t hear her..she may never find the island. EARHART: "....unintelligible...... VOICE 1: If that is all the gas she has she won't make the Island. EARHART: KHAQQ calling ITASCA.....unintelligible VOICE 2: Call the Island (Howland) at the land station, they might be able to get her. EARHART: SOS.....SOS.....(UNINTELLIBLE)... (STATIC) ...hit the water....STATIC....MUSIC OVER VOICE........ VOICE 1; THAT WAS THE LAST MSG THE WORLD WOULD HEAR FROM AVIATRIX EARHART...lost at sea wlith her navigator Fred Noonan. Music... For radio /navigator experts, what does the DF mean 550-270??? Note: Whether this is a year end review or the real 8 July 37 version, I have no idea. When you listen to the Itasca-KHAQQ transmissions, with static, Earharts simulated voice, you think you are hearing the real mccoy. Ron Bright **************************************************************************** From Ric Very interesting. Seems awfully short though. I thought that the March of Time was a half-hour broadcast. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 09:50:00 EST From: Doug Brutlag Subject: Niku IV Video Just got my copy of the video. I watched it to its conclusion. Ric: I found the material presented to be nothing less than superb! The quality & content is fantastic. Considering what it took to get the footage it is a bargain at $50 a pop. To all forumites who haven't yet purchased a tape, I encourage you to get off your hip pockets and do so yesterday. To all non-member forumites, think seriously and whip out your charge plates & checkbooks and send in your tax deductible membership fee and order your Niku IV video all in one effort. Over the course of time, a good number of you out there mentioned how cool it would be to be on the actual expedition. This video lets you do just that without the personal expense, the time off from work, the gallons of sweat working in 100 degree heat, and coconut crabs nipping your ass. Support the effort it took to make this tape and keep the TIGHAR purring. Ric, I can only think of one small improvement to the tape: could you and Pat consider humming a few bars of "Bali Hai" and dubbing it into the tape? It would make for great viewing under a sun lamp & a Mai Tai in your hand. Doug Brutlag #2335 ************************************************************************** From Ric Jeez, that would run the price WAY up. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 09:52:58 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Re: March of Time Great work! Where did you find the tape? Only _none_ of the Itasca's log entries reads like the dramatization & none of the dramatization reads like 'Betty's notes ! Don N. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 09:57:38 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: Re: March of Time It seems the only commonality on the MOT broadcast is she at least said SOS a couple of times. Note that AE and in this re-creation, both Itasca and Earhart use KHAQQ on every transmission. As I recall, Betty's didn't record one KHAQQ. Ron *************************************************************************** From Ric That's right. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 10:00:29 EST From: From Don Neumann Subject: Re: March of Time Yet, AE never transmitted any SOS on any of the transmissions entered on the Itasca log, I wonder where that came from? Might be interesting to discover just _who_ it was that actually _wrote_ the script & just how much 'license' they included in their production & whether they ever spoke with any of the participants actually involved in the flight or search effort; or had access to any of the _official_ records reporting the events that transpired on the Itasca or Howland ? Don N. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 10:18:50 EST From: Van Hunn Subject: Anomalous feature (Van was the Dive Team leader on Niku IIII) > From Ric > > Maybe one of the divers could comment on this. Our first dive-objective for Niku IIII was to locate and inspect the "anomaly" just off the reef edge and north of the wreck of NC. What we found there was a horizonally flat coral head (I call "table-top") which was circular in shape about 6-8 feet in diameter. Below it was some light colored coral sand which probably helped make the coral head stand out in the sat photo. I recall that this coral head was covered with a "dirty-brown" algae-- not red. This kind of algae is quite common in all the shallow areas we dove. In fact, later in the expedition I walked along the windward reef edge and saw that the shallow coral was also dirty-brown. Recall the report by reef biologist David Obura who dove in the same area in June 2000 You asked him about underwater surface along this area. He said, "Solid rock interspersed with large rubble. Covered with some coral-10-50% cover depending on where, otherwise mostly coralline algae, turf algae and halimeda." Van *************************************************************************** From Ric I think it was Walt Holm who told me that when you guys got to the spot where the anomaly should be, he looked over the side of the skiff and said, "Yup, there it is." Before even getting into the water he said he could see a big rust-colored area right below the boat which, even from that distance, looked like it could be rust-covered metal. Closer inspection, however, revealed it to be nothing but algae. Hence, our characterization of the anomaly as an unusual patch of "red" algae. From what you say, the only thing really anomalous about that spot is the "table-top" surrounded by sand - which raises the question of why it looked uniquely rust-colored in the satellite photo. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 10:24:58 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: Re: March of Time It is for the reasons you cite that we are interested in finding the elusive and perhaps unattainable tape of the March of Time. It was afterall produced 6 days after her disappearance, and lots of facts as well as speculation were available. I don't know if the Log was public, but many of her last messages had been reported in the newsaccounts. So times, places, etc were pretty well known. Who put the show together would be a real catch if we can find it. The MOT that I reported on is not the 1/2 hour version, I don't think. Ron ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 10:26:13 EST From: Cam Warren Subject: Re: March of Time The DF reference is more than likely a reference to the frequency range covered by the ITASCA's DF receiver. >>EARHART: SOS.....SOS.....(UNINTELLIBLE)... (STATIC) ...hit the >>water....STATIC....MUSIC OVER VOICE........ Well, that's interesting! Presumably some script writers use of "poetic license", but - do you think somebody actually heard such a message? (I doubt it!). And yes, I'm sure the broadcast segment was just a part of a year end wrap. You have the name of the producer and writer of the show in the "MOT History" I sent you. Cam ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 10:39:05 EST From: Rollin Reineck Subject: Re: March of Time The log was not public. It was held in he custody of the highest office of our nation. Paul Mantz had requested a copy of the log from the Coast Guard in April 1938. he was told he had to get Presidential approval. On 26 April 1938, Mantz wrote to Eleanor and requested the log. On 10 May 1938, ER sent the Mantz letter to Morgenthau (SOT) with a note that said "I don;t know whether you can send this man these records". 13 May 1938 Morgenthay calls ER to object (Morgentau transcription). 5 July 1938, (2 months and 10 days later) Morgenthau tells ER "We have found it possible to send Paul Mantz a copy of the Itasca logs" Conspiracy to keep the details of her flight a secret? You can't help but wonder How Morgenthau found it possible to send Paul Mantz a copy of the logs? Does the 40 minute period (0802 to 0844) where there is no communication from Earhart have anything to do with it? *************************************************************************** From Ric There may very well have been a communication at Earhart's scheduled 08:15 transmission time, but Itasca was transmitting on 3105 and blocked anything she might have been saying. Other than that, Earhart was heard again right on schedule at quarter-to the hour. It has been my impression that what Mantz requested and what Morgenthau was referring to was Thompson's official report "Radio Transcripts Earhart Flight" which is not at all the same thing as the actual radio logs. O'Hare's raw log was probably destroyed as was standard procedure after the "smoothed" version was typed up. The only reason we have Bellart's raw log is that he personally saved it as a memento. The official "smoothed" copies of both logs probably stayed with the ship's records. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 10:41:13 EST From: Steve Subject: Wild ass >but most of the time you live on ground squirrels and the occasional wild >ass. Living on wild ass?? Sounds like a mighty fine life to me... LTM Steve *************************************************************************** From Ric I woud have been SO disappointed if somebody hadn't picked up on that. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 10:43:14 EST From: Tom King Subject: Re: More on the Anomalous Pixels I started kicking myself for not thinking that the algae might represent the remains of something ferrous, but then it occurred to me -- so what if it was? Since there are iron ship parts on the reef (though why don't we find that thar red algae around the Norwich City?) and since if the iron's been reduced to algae poop we're not going to be able to identify it as Electra-iron anyhow, does it really matter? Is there something special about the ferrous metal in an airplane that would produce a special kind of algae??? LTM (who thinks "slicker than snot" is a compliment) TK *************************************************************************** From Ric Well, from Van's account it sounds like we've had a misimpression of what was there. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 10:45:45 EST From: Tom King Subject: Re: Amelia Earhart recreation, March of Time, July 8,1937 And since you asked me, too, Chris, though I have nothing to do with the TIGHAR budget, let me just say that to the extent the analysis of the Seven Site material is costing anything (e.g. for radiocarbon dating), a third party -- i.e. I -- am paying for it, because I know TIGHAR's in no position to pay for anything of the kind. TK ************************************************************************* From Ric Which we deeply appreciate. The TIGHAR Board has been very generous in helping us get over the rough spots. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 10:49:05 EST From: Suzanne Subject: Re: Red Algae >From Ric: >1. As you say, it seems like there has to be some reason why a big patch >grew there and nowhere else. >2. No sample was collected. It may be just as well that no sample was collected, since some species of red algae can be highly toxic and sometimes fatal, per internet reading! A search of "red tide" discusses that. Here is something interesting: http://europa.eu.int/comm/development/publicat/fish/pe099710.pdf (you need a free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this page) Seaweed production in Kiribati Sept. 1997: A New Cash Crop An important market exists worldwide for the type of seaweed, Eucheuma cottonii, introduced from Hawaii into Kiribati in 1977. Eucheuma cottonii belongs to the family of Rhodophyceae (red algae) and is widespread in tropical waters. It may be refined to extract carrageenan, a commercial name for a gelatinous natural polymers containing carbohydrates and sulphate groups. (more on page) Maybe a connection? Also, globetrotting dust clouds can trigger algae "blooms", by bringing the needed nutrients to the water to enable the algae to grow. Then, the algae follows the sun! Suzanne *************************************************************************** From Ric I know there was an attempt by Kiribati a few years ago to plant seaweed in the lagoon at Niku and the above may explain why. The attempt was apparently unsuccessful because we've seen no seaweed of any description in the lagoon. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 10:54:01 EST From: Ned Johnston Subject: Survival Mode Please mark me down as a ground squirrel (before someone calls me a wild ass) and send me one of those 'slick' aerial tour videos. Let me know if you don't have my CC info on file. LTM, Ned Johnston #2314 ************************************************************************** From Ric Thanks Ned. I begin to wonder what I've started here. Most nonprofits have "giving categories" (Patron, Donor, etc.). Leave it to TIGHAR to have Ground Squirrels, Wild Asses, and Mammoths. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 12:54:39 EST From: Marty Moleski Subject: Re: March of Time > From Ron Bright > It is for the reasons you cite that we are interested in finding the > elusive and perhaps unattainable tape of the March of Time. I think the quest is for tapes, plural. July 8 AND July 15. There was also a 1960 CBS retrospective: http://www.old-time.com/ffiles/carrcat.txt Edward J. Carr 216 Shaner Street Boyertown, PA 19512 PHONE: 610-367-9114 FAX: 801-729-8624 Email: edcarr@enter.net Reel UK#0426 1800ft Mixed Reel Sound OK 1L The Hermit's Cave Professor's Elixir Crimson Hand Plantation Mystery 2L Latitude Zero Discovery (First Show) 02-11-41 Results, Inc. Mummies Walk 12-30-44 Richard Diamond, Detective Jacoby Case AFRS 11-19-51 1R The Big Guy The Unheard Voice (First Show) 05-07-50 Case Of The Patent Leather Bag (Last) 10-29-50 Case Of The Villionous Friend 08-27-50 2R Rex Saunders Worth More Than Its Weight In Murder 07-25-51 Search For Amelia Earhart - 1 hour I spoke with Mr. Carr. He said he would send me a copy of side 2B. I e-mailed him my address. I never heard from him again. I haven't tried again to follow up. My theory was that the 1960 show might contain material from the 1937 productions. LTM, Marty ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 12:59:44 EST From: Carol Linn Dow Subject: Re: March of Time I'd like to jump in on this one. Just as a matter of opinion, I personally believe the way Earhart handled those radios in the final minutes was very suspicious....switching channels. I am pilot with about 500 hours flying time. Once a solid ground contact is established, nobody in their right mind goes switching around in an emergency situation....just the opposite....you hang on for dear life. I know I've heard all the Earhart arguments the radios were on the "fritz" ...that's fine except I don't believe it, and I don't accept it... and they had more than ample time to fix those radios (if they were on the "fritz") before they left New Guinea. If there was an antenna that was torn off the belly of Earhart's Electra on take off, it was probably a marker beacon antenna which would have nothing to do with voice radio communications. Marker beacon antennas were used to fly the "beam" in the early days of aviation and currently are used for outer markers, middle markers, and inner markers (buzzers and lights) on an ILS instrument approach (if they still use them). I have been away from aviation for a few years now. The position and the length of the antenna wire is a dead giveaway of what it is. In my honest opinion, Earhart had a hot tropical sun in her face on the morning of Sept 2, 1937, they couldn't see anything, and she turned back for Tarawa which in those days was under British control. Anyone who is going to ditch at sea is in one "h" of a situation and flying at one thousand feet is an even worse "h" of a situation. Depending on which navigator you believe, Alan "the smoking gun" Caldwell (hello Alan) or Rollin Renieck in Honolulu, she had enough fuel to make it back to somebody's island....and yes Gardner is a possibility. I'm personal friends with Don Wilson, and Don, the fine gentleman that he is, has pictures on the front of his book with stamps issued by the Marshall Islands showing Earhart's Electra crashed on a remote island in the Marshalls with one wing broken and another stamp showing the Japanese salvage ship Koshu hauling the plane off to who knows where. Ric, I know what your guidelines are, but I honestly believe you should widen the scope of your investigation to include the Marshall Islands. Tighar is an historic aircraft recovery group, and the best one on the internet. Your group does a nice job, and I would hate to see something pop-up in an underground bunker in the Marshalls and Tighar gets no credit for any of the investigation. That would be a tragedy. It stands to reason....why should you take a chance on being cut-out of the findings if there is any findings to be had in the Marshalls? It doesn't equate. I want to apologize to Alan Caldwell, I'm afraid I was the one who described him as "the smoking gun" to a few friends, and I believe I may have started all "the smoking gun" talk. Please pardon me, Alan. The next question you are going to ask is what is my interest in this affair....my interest is that I have a play about Amelia Earhart (I write plays in my spare time), and it would be nice to know how to end the final scene of what happened to Amelia Earhart....if that's possible to know. Why didn't Earhart get on those radios in the final hours of her flight and blast away she was ditching or turning back or whatever she was going to do? The only thing that makes any sense is that she was either out of radio range or she went into the water. SHE DID NOT ANNOUNCE HER INTENTIONS and that you all is very suspicious and gives way to all the spy theories which I personally don't believe. The one area the Navy didn't search was the Marshall Islands at the time of the disappearance, and for a good reason, the Japanese Aircraft Carrier Akagi, was sitting at Jaluit in the Marshalls (which the Navy may have known), and I am sure if the Navy needed information on the Marshall Islands, they could have sent a long range PBY or a submarine anytime they wanted to do "some looking" around. A PBY could have been refueled at sea. I know Wiley Post was on a spy mission so Earhart was on a spy mission....and on and on it goes. It takes a long time to write Emails, which I am sure you are all aware of the work that goes into these. I'll sit back and listen. You all do the talking. Carol Linn Dow ************************************************************************ From Ric Good idea. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 13:01:10 EST From: David Chase Subject: Anomalous feature: dead thread? Given Van's description of what the diver's saw I'd say the anomalous feature issue is pretty much a dead thread. The color on the photograph could be easily explained by a prism/lense effect coupled with sun position when the photo was taken, especially knowing that the reef was a flat 6 to 8 foot circular shape at that point - clearly an anomalous reflector and nothing much else! Dave Chase ************************************************************************** From Ric I 'spect you're right. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 13:32:24 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: Re: March of Time Your music note is an excellent point. There is music to start with, fades in and out and of course the dramatic music over the final words, and the end.. There is no doubt you are listening to a re-creation if you listen all for two minutes. Soooo, if none of the post loss messages contained any music or a heavy MOT voice, the MOT stuff may be of no value. This transcript only has the KHAQQ call sign, but no positions, such as reefs, east or west directions, sinking, that is discernible. I don't recall any with the word "Itasca". Maybe just another deadend, or at least we can dismiss the MOT as the source of the post loss msgs. When you (Ric) look at the matrix of the some three hundred post loss msgs, the spike in msg traffic should occur on 8-9 Jul and on 15-16 July, the dates of the broadcast. Ron Bright **************************************************************************** From Ric I can give you a sneak preview. First of all, there are lots of duplications in the various sources. There seem to be fewer than one hundred reported post-loss transmissions, but that's still a lot. As for peaks of activity, virtually all of the reported transmissions are heard during hours when it is dark in the Central Pacific although it was not necessarily dark at the point of reception. There is lots of activity on the night of July 2/3 and on the night of July 3/4 and on the night of July 4/5, and then it abruptly drops off to almost nothing. By July 8/9, when the first March of Time broadcast aired, there was only one report of a signal and it was heard hours after the broadcast. Nothing at all on July 15/16. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 13:33:15 EST From: Dan Postellon Subject: Red Algae I'll check my old botany book, if I can find it. I'm sure that "red tide" and "red algae" and different organisms. Dan Postellon TIGHAR #2263 ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 13:35:21 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: Dow Theory One small problem with your theory is that the Japanese Aircraft carrier AKAGI was in Japan undergoing extensive rebuilding from 1935-1938. She was not at Jaluit in July 1937. Norweigian Capt Parker saw a "carrrier", the Kamoi, a seaplane carrier, at Jaluit in April 37. Since the Akagi wasn't in the Marshalls it makes it more difficult for Japanese Pilot Firmosa to have shot or forced down Amelia's Electra at or near Mili. No one could find Firmosa in Japan nor his relatives. Ron Bright (Source: US NAVAL HISTORICAL CENTER, JAPANESE SHIPS) ************************************************************************** From Ric Spoil sport. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 13:39:37 EST From: Jim Tierney Subject: Re: March of Time Regarding the posting from Carol Linn Dow----- Somewhat rambling--she may raise some points that MAY merit further investigation-----BUT--Wiley Post on a spy mission...!!!!!!!!!!!! The mind boggles... Jim TIerney *************************************************************************** From Ric How gentle we have become. There was a time not that long ago when we would have flayed someone alive for posting such an anthology of misinformation and silly speculation. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 13:44:45 EST From: Andrew McKenna Subject: Anomalous feature << From Ric Actually, that thought had not occurred to us (or at least to me or anyone I've talked to). I don't know enough about what makes algae grow to know if there might be anything to it. As you say, it seems like there has to be some reason why a big patch grew there and nowhere else.>> this was a large section, maybe 12' x 12' of flat coral about 2-3' under the surface (just below low tide) where it receieves adaquate sunlight and warm temperature to foster red algae growth. Most of the rest of the reef was not so flat (remember those canyons?), and not at the right depth for a concentration of algae to grow in the same way. Deeper and it doesn't get enough sun, shallower and it ends up in the intertidal zone and gets too much oxygen or dries out. Evidently yellow algae survives better in the intertidal zone. There is lots of algae growning out there, most of it just doesn't have a nice flat and shallow surface to grow on and be seen from 439 miles up. I believe it was the combination of the color of the algae, angle of the coral, depth of the water, phase of the wave passing over, angle of the sun, moisture in the atmosphere, cloud cover, and angle of the sattellite photo etc. etc. etc. that made the pixels unique. If we really looked, I suspect there would be a lot of unique or rare pixels. Pure happenstance. It is not red because it is growing on top of a radial engine - I wish :( LTM (who's been there and seen it up close) Andrew McKenna 1045CE **************************************************************************** From Ric But is it red or dirty-brown, or are we talking eye-of-the-beholder semantics? ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 10:31:59 EST From: Angus Murray Subject: Re: shoes >It took us a > long time to realize that what we're looking at is a rather odd two-tone heel > but it's sure not like the solid-colored Cat's Paw heel, or the other heel, > we found on the island. Does this mean that in fact Pair1 and Pair 2 are one and the same or are we to believe that AE had two pairs of shoes with unusual two-tone heels? Regards Angus *************************************************************************** From Ric Both Pair 1 and Pair 2 (as described and shown in the Research Bulletin "Shoe Fetish Part 2" http://www.tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Research/Bulletins/31_ShoeFetish2/31_ShoeFetish2.html appear to have the distinctive two-tone heels. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 10:33:16 EST From: Mike Holt Subject: Re: Dow Theory > From Ron Bright > > For Carol Dow, > > One small problem with your theory is that the Japanese Aircraft carrier > AKAGI was in Japan undergoing extensive rebuilding from 1935-1938. She was > not at Jaluit in July 1937. Norweigian Capt Parker saw a "carrrier", the > Kamoi, a seaplane carrier, at Jaluit in April 37. One thing about all these reports of the AKAGI keeps me instrested in them: it's always the AKAGI. Never the KAGA; why not? The AKAGI and the KAGA seem to be the only carriers with one large funnel trunked downward to starboard, which is what I regard as how the observer knew it was the AKAGI. I keep thinking that there's something useful in all this, but for a paper on mass hysteria. Too bad my projects for this semester are all business cases. Mike Holt ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 10:34:58 EST From: Christopher Ferro Subject: Re: "Anomalous" feature I feel a bit embarrassed that I haven't joined in this discussion, since I am a Remote Sensing specialist. I have not seen the satellite data, nor the real algae. I would, however, concur that the combination of circumstances listed by others (sun angle, look angle of the satellite, atmospheric distortion, etc.) is very plausible. It happens often with other sensors (such as Landsat, SPOT, etc.). It could also just be that locally unique set of ecologic factors favor the growth of red algae only in that small area - water depth, temperature, salinity, and so forth. It is important to note that the image is NOT a photograph. The types and colors of artifacts (or anomalous pixels) are much different than what one would find on a photograph. Actually, the satellite data and the "anomalous" pixel issue are still very exciting! You had some information that pointed to something that could be related to the Electra. What you did at Niku IIII was called "ground truthing" - verifying that what you saw in the image was what you thought it was. It wasn't, and that's OK. Live and learn, as 'they' say. So in the end, it isn't anomalous after all... LTM, Christopher Ferro P.S. for those who want to know what Remote Sensing IS: http://rst.gsfc.nasa.gov/ or http://www.esa.int:8000/exercises/default/ ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 10:36:24 EST From: David Katz Subject: Re: Amelia Earhart recreation, March of Time, July 8,1937 > From Ric > > Are you sure you never worked for ENRON? :-) What Chris is describing is called the securitization of intellectual property rights. It is done all the time in the arena of structured finance (by qualified investment bankers), and is quite legitimate. I know -- I am one of the pioneers of the structured finance industry. That said, it would require a very large amount of prospective receivables ($50 million to $150 million) for such a securitization to be (a) attractive to potential purchasers of such securities, and (b) cost-effective to the issuer of such securities (the cost is in excess of $500,000). Although the book in question may sell many thousands of copies, I don't expect that it will sell in the many millions. Such intellectual property rights securitizations are typically done for the royalty rights of an entire list of publications, musical compositions, motion pictures, etc. David Katz ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 10:46:10 EST From: Carol Linn Dow Subject: Re: Dow Theory For Ron Bright: Good, I knew about the Seaplane Carrier and the Koshu. You know that really sounds suspicious to me that the Japanese would have any kind of a carrier or a salvage ship hanging around the Marshall Islands at the time of the Earhart flight. I can't remember where I saw it was the Akagi that was at Jaluit...it's been too long ago. The Akagi was later sunk at the battle of Midway in the Pacific....that's for sure. I will probably have to make changes in the play let me do some snooping around on what you said and see if I can verify it. I know, all the theories about Earhart being shot down by Japanese fighter planes came from the Akagi...except there is one problem....how do you account for the sightings by the Marshall Islanders of an Electra with a broken wing sitting in a lagoon or a beach or wherever it was. If the plane was shot down it would have been blown to pieces with nothing to show in the hereafter. Somewhere along the line you have to stop and put on your Sherlock Holmes cap and put in a call to Dr. Watson. Thank you for the Email. Carol Linn Dow ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 10:51:22 EST From: Carol Linn Dow Subject: Re: March of Time I can't remember where I saw that Wiley Post was on some kind of a spy mission. Someone posted that a long time ago on the other side of the moon, but I was really using that in jest more than anything else so please don't take it seriously. What I really want to happen out of all of this is for the Tighar group to do some work in the Marshall Islands....to disprove the theory if nothing else. I think that should be part of your mission. I think it is important, and I for one would be willing to contribute monies to that one. I am as poor as a church mouse, but I can still scrap up funds for the project. Tighar has the best group, the best organization, and the best people to do it with.....but it's up to you guys. I can't go myself....but there might be someone in the group who can. You might say Miss Carol is dying to find out about the Marshall Island. I don't think you are really making progress at Gardner Island. Open up the search....cover all the bases....investigate everything...that should be a part of your mission. I was personal friends with Muriel Morrissey (Amelia's sister).... a great gal. Tears come to my eyes when I think of Muriel. Was she ever a sweetheart....not a penny to her name, and she lived in a rickety old house just outside Boston. I never knew Amelia. Muriel and I wrote letters back and forth and back and forth. She was super. All for now. Ms.Carol Linn Dow *************************************************************************** From Ric Sorry to disagree with you but I think we are making great progress at Gardner and I see no reason at all to lend any credibility to the Marshall Islands nonsense by even discussing it. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 10:52:12 EST From: Marjorie Subject: Re: Dow Theory > From Ron Bright > > Since the Akagi wasn't in the Marshalls it makes it more difficult for > Japanese Pilot Firmosa to have shot or forced down Amelia's Electra at or > near Mili. No one could find Firmosa in Japan nor his relatives. Not surprising. "Firmosa" is impossible as a Japanese name. In Japanese, F is always followed by U and R is always followed by a vowel. LTM (who loves being a spoilsport herself) Marjorie Smith ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 10:54:46 EST From: Herman De Wulf Subject: Re: Dow Theory For Carol Linn Dow I do not agree with Carol's point of view that one will stick with a ground contact. If you get no response you will try something else. I'm speaking of personal experience. I experienced a radio failure once when I was about to enter the CTR of a major airport. Failing to establish contact with the tower before entering controlled airspace causes a serious problems because you are not allowed to enter that airspace and therefore cannot land at that airport. My situation was comparable to AE's in that it was impossible to establish communication. It was different however in that I knew where I was. Luckily I was flying over land and did not have to divert to Gardner Island. But the nearest non radio airfield was beyond reach as fuel was low. The only way to get down safely was either to land in a meadow (which is something to avoid) or to head for a closed airfield and make an unlawful landing (which is also something to avoid in my part of the world because of legalk consequences). The way to do is making a blind transmission to let the tower know of the problem, switched the transponder to the radio failure mode so that ATC knows you're in trouble and try an other frequency. In fact I contacted ATC, repeating my blind transmission and hoping they would find a way of assisting me and bring me down safely. Eventually I did not land at Gardner, nor at a closed airfield. The good Lord must have been listening. As I was banked flying a last circle studying my map I all of a sudden heard a far away faint voice in my earphones. I picked up the words "cleared to land from wherever you are". So I made a 180? turn and dashed to the airport without further radio communication to land and have the radio checked. AE was not so lucky. She got no reply. She could not switch a transponder on either. Nobody knew what her problem was, nor where she was. But trying to establish contact on an other frequency was certainly worth trying. *************************************************************************** From Ric Notice To Airmen Please, no more there-I-was stories. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 11:02:17 EST From: Russ Matthews Subject: Re: Dow Theory << How gentle we have become. There was a time not that long ago when we would have flayed someone alive for posting such an anthology of misinformation and silly speculation. >> I believe we flayed this particular dead horse for several weeks last year -- and you can see what an impression we made. LTM (who thinks AE was lost in July...not September), Russ **************************************************************************** From Ric Indeed we did. There's a lesson there. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 11:03:47 EST From: Andrew McKenna Subject: Anomalous pixels << But is it red or dirty-brown, or are we talking eye-of-the-behoder semantics? >> SHEESH, how about reddish brown. mostly brown with a reddish tint to it. Not red tide which I believe is a floating variety, this stuff is attached to the coral like slimy moss. amck ************************************************************************** From Ric Like maybe "rust-colored"? ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 11:09:12 EST From: Bruce Yoho Subject: Re: Niku IV Video I have to have one of those videos of the Niku 4 trip. You should have my card numbers and all. If not let me know. Thanks Bruce Yoho ************************************************************************** From Ric Thanks Bruce, but I need you to clarify your order. The video we're sending out now is Number 1 in the series "An Aerial Tour of Nikumaroro." Kinda like you did except we didn't pick up an engine. :-) We'll soon be coming out with Number 2 in the series, "The Niku IIII Expedition", and we're taking orders on that one too. Each is fifty bucks. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 11:45:48 EST From: Suzanne Subject: Re: Kiribati Atoll Seaweed Company Ric scribed, while horsing around atop that wild ass: >I know there was an attempt by Kiribati a few years ago to plant seaweed in >the lagoon at Niku and the above may explain why. The attempt was apparently >unsuccessful because we've seen no seaweed of any description in the lagoon. Per that net document, the Kiribati seaweed production began in 1986. It peaked in 1991 with 1020 tons. Production declined to 400 tons in 1993 as a result of "El Nino" adverse weather conditions (strong westerly winds destroying the farms; warmer waters). They also lacked marketing management. New Zealand stepped in to help. Production was up to 1283 tons by 1996, mainly on Maiana in the Gilberts and Tabuaeran in the Line Group. The seaweed is shipped to Denmark for processing. It continues to be an ongoing concern. Suzanne ************************************************************************* From Ric A font of knowledge as usual. Thanks Suzanne. (We should know this stuff.) ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 11:47:21 EST From: Kerry Tiller Subject: Re: Dow Theory > It takes a long time to write Emails, which I am sure you are all aware of > the work that goes into these. I'll sit back and listen. You all do the > talking. > > Carol Linn Dow > ************************************************************************ > From Ric > > Good idea. Ric, your powers of restraint amaze me. Kerry Tiller ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 11:49:09 EST From: Suzanne Subject: Re: Red algae <> I see that there are over 4000 species of red algae! http://www.marinelab.sarasota.fl.us/~mhenry/WREDTIDE.phtml WHAT IS RED TIDE? Red tide is the result of a massive multiplication (or "bloom") of tiny, single celled algae called Karenia brevis, usually found in warm saltwater, but which can exist a lower temperatures. It is a natural phenomenon, apparently unrelated to manmade pollution. In high concentrations, K. brevis may create a brownish red sheen on the surface of the water; in other instances, it may look yellow green, or may not be visible at all. Some red tides have covered up to several hundred square miles of water. No one can predict when or where red tides will appear or how long they will last since they are affected by many variables such as weather and currents. 442,000 more red tide links: http://www.google.com/search?q=red+tide (so you don't have to dig up that botany book!) Suzanne ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 13:11:41 EST From: Marty Moleski Subject: Re: Dow Theory > From Carol Linn Dow > What I really want to happen out of all of this is for > the Tighar group to do some work in the Marshall Islands....to disprove > the theory if nothing else. Finding evidence "beyond REASONABLE doubt" of AE and FN landing at Niku would disprove all other hypotheses about their fate. Trying to disprove that they were nowhere in the Marshalls is a project of practical impossibility due to the immense funds that would be needed to map and explore all possible sites so as to EXCLUDE them decisively from consideration. To look at it differently, you might say that TIGHAR has been trying since 1989 to disprove the Niku hypothesis and has as yet failed to do so. Only if it could be shown decisively that Niku is not a good place to search would it make sense to dedicated limited resources to searching elsewhere for the remains of the plane and crew. LTM, Marty #2359 *************************************************************************** From Ric "... you might say that TIGHAR has been trying since 1989 to disprove the Niku hypothesis and has as yet failed to do so." Exactly. Another way to look at the evidence uncovered at Niku is to approach it from the perspective of the "negative hypothesis", i.e. none of the known or alleged events which seem to suggest the Earhart aircraft or crew's presence on the island is in any way connected to the Earhart flight and might be expected to be found on any randomly selected island subjected to this degree of research and scrutiny. If you have a problem accepting that statement as reasonable, then you accept that it is more likely that at least some of the unexplained events at Nikumaroro are directly related to the missing flight. Once you have said that, you've said a mouthful. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 13:13:01 EST From: Dick Pingrey Subject: Carol Linn Dow Theory For the life of me I can't think of one good reason why the Japanese would want to interfere with Amelia Earhart's flight but I can think of quite a few why they would not. How does this theory explain the fact that Amelia was quite certainly very close to Howland and later flying on the line of position? Carol's theory may be entertaining but there is no scientific evidence to support such an event and lots of evidence that makes it unreasonable for serious consideration. Dick Pingrey 908C ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 13:16:04 EST From: Don Jordan Subject: Dow Theory Besides, "the Electra Group", headed by Ron Bright, is doing a fine job of disproving the Marshall Island theory. Don J. *************************************************************************** From Ric The Electra Group might be doing a fine job showing that the supposed evidence put forward to support the Marshall Island theory is flawed and incredible, but it can't disprove the theory unless it finds the airplane someplace else. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 13:22:12 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: Re: Dow Theory For Marjorie, re: Spelling of Japanese names Brennan's team of investigators identified the pilots name in Japan as "Fujie Firmosa". And that is how Brennan spelled the name. Since that name apparently is misspelled, that may account for the fact no one could find relatives, or Fujie himself. He was reportedly the ship's captain of the FUKUUN MARU at Saipan. He may have felt bad when they told him he shot down Amelia Earhart, an unarmed, civilian aircraft, and changed the spelling of his name. Ron B *************************************************************************** From Ric The incredible thing to me is that anyone takes that stuff seriously enough to try to "research" it. It's like engaging a team of meteorologists to show that it is impossible for a house containing a little girl from Kansas to be transported intact to an alternate universe. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 13:24:19 EST From: Lawrence Subject: Re: Dow Theory I have some of those stamps. Just how did that Marshall Island story start? Thanks, Lawrence ************************************************************************* From Ric Good question. Tracing the actual roots of the Japanese capture theory is really a rather fascinating quest, but off-topic for this forum. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 13:26:30 EST From: Pete Subject: Re: Dow Theory Regarding IJN Kaga, how interested are we in where she was in July 1937? I know of only one website that carries much info on IJN ships, and for KAGA is right now a gap from 1929 commissioning to named as flagship in April 1941. The page authors can be contacted by site link and may have some record of her whereabouts in 1937. For those interested: http://www.combinedfleet.com OR, pull up a search engine and enter "Nihon Kaigun" and the same page should come up. LTM Pete #2419 *************************************************************************** From Ric <<...how interested are we in where (KAGA) was in July 1937?>> Not at all, at least in the context of our Earhart investigation. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 13:29:22 EST From: Chris Kennedy Subject: Proving and Disproving Ric, does your reasoning also mean that someone has to find the airplane somewhere other than Niku to disprove the Niku theory? --Chris Kennedy *************************************************************************** From Ric Of course it does. This is not just MY reasoning. This is Logic 101. ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 08:41:52 EST From: Chris Kennedy Subject: Re: Proving and Disproving > Ric, does your reasoning also mean that someone has to find the airplane > somewhere other than Niku to disprove the Niku theory? > Of course it does. This is not just MY reasoning. This is Logic 101. Sounds like Enron logic 101. --Chris Kennedy ************************************************************************** From Ric Okay, outline a scenario in which the Niku Hypothesis could be disproved WITHOUT the the airplane and/or crew being discovered someplace else. ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 08:51:43 EST From: Carol Linn Dow Subject: Re: Dow Theory I'm afraid I started something. Let me say a few things. The only thing that makes any sense to me about the Marshall Islands is the Harris search that was written up in The Kansas City Star by Donna McGuire here recently. That really fired my imagination. That's the part that I think really needs to be nailed down. I would hate to see something come up on the "buried under a bunker theory" and Tighar doesn't get any credit. Look at the work and effort you people have put into this....why take a chance on our group being left out of the publicity? Opps, I'm coming into this cold. It's been discussed before and probably at great length, and I don't know all the details. I'll tell you one thing Donna McGuire at The Kansas City Star is sitting there itching to write another story. Not only that but McGuire did a huge Sunday front page on the "Holy Grail of Aviation." The subject matter if you might have guessed was Earhart. So everyone I know is after me for answers, and they want that play. So what am I going to tell them? I'm open to suggestions. I'll listen. I don't really know that much about this so I am relying on you all from the Tighar group for information. That's a big help to me. Ric, I know this is off subject and out of your guidelines but can't we investigate the Harris search and disapprove or approve what he is doing. Maybe it's already been done, and I should go into the archives. I don't know. But I do know one thing the Earhart search is a red hot potato with The Kansas City Star in particular...whew. McGuire's address is dmcguire@kcstar.com I write plays so I'm out looking for answers. She's running her own research department down there with people calling up....including Mr. Harris. Carol Linn Dow ************************************************************************** From Ric I know Donna McGuire at the Star. She's just reporting what people tell her. Makes good copy. If, as you say, you really want to rely on TIGHAR for information I can only tell you that TIGHAR has looked at the evidence offered to support the idea that the Earhart airplane is buried in the beach at Taroa in the Marshalls and has found it ludicrous. As to how to end your play, my suggestion would be to quote AE's final transmission heard by Itasca "We are on the line 157 337...." and then follow that line off stage. ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 08:52:55 EST From: Carol Linn Dow Subject: Re: Carol Linn Dow Theory For Dick Pingrey I would agree with your statement....the Japanese had no reason to want Earhart. But the point is they didn't want Earhart. In fact, they didn't want anyone snooping around those islands. If Earhart showed up, I personally believed they were ready to dispose of her and her airplane, both....that explains the seaplane carrier and the salvage ship. It's a matter of opinion. No one can prove any of this. Carol Linn Dow ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 08:54:02 EST From: Carol Linn Dow Subject: Re: Dow Theory Ric and Marty, If you think you have something at Gardner Island....full steam ahead by all means. Don't stop...keep going. Dow Theory ************************************************************************** From Ric Trust us. ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 08:57:33 EST From: Carol Linn Dow Subject: Re: Proving and Disproving My great worry is that if someone else (Harris) finds that airplane, Tighar is left out in the cold. Why should we put ourselves in a position like that? The implications for Tighar would be negative...not good, and I would like to be a part of your group.... because it's the best one with the best resources and the best people and the best moderator....the best website...lets keep Tighar going...the Dow Theory....onward and upward....keep searching....everywhere. Carol Linn Dow *************************************************************************** From Ric You'll find a printable membership form on the website at https://tighar.org/membernew.html or you can send a check for $55 to: TIGHAR 2812 Fawkes Drive Wilmington, DE 19808 ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 09:02:34 EST From: Carol Linn Dow Subject: Re: Dow Theory I wanted to send this of and then disappear into playwriting. Regarding the Marshall Island, I would hope someone from Tighar could search out Harris, find out what he is up to, and offer some of the following: 1. I would extend an offer for him to join the Tighar group. He is out there all by himself up against the world and probably has very little financial backing. I understand Harris was "fired" by Nauticos because they got into accusations over misappropriating funds. I don't know the exact details except that Harris sued Nauticos for false accusations. Lot of hard feelings there (according to Donna McGuire at The Kansas City Star.) 2. Tighar from a "National Geographic" viewpoint would be interested in documenting what he is doing, how much success he has had, and what he has found. Our group has a large website available, excellent access to the press, and also the possibility of raising funds. 3. If he refuses all help and assistance, would he object to our documenting what he is doing for historical purposes only? I think if he is approached in a kind and gentlemanly way, he would be delighted at the prospects of someone offering him help and assistance....especially with the prospect of the help he could get from the people on our website which also includes attorneys. In return for that I would ask for certain concession such as Tighar becomes a spokesman for the Harris findings (if he permits it). That would permit Tighar to send out press releases and possibly receive permission to setup a Tighar information booth or who knows maybe even a resort at the site of the buried bunker. That is....if the airplane is there. I believe, Richard, your experience in dealing with the press in these matters would be invaluable to G. Michael Harris. Now then, the rest of what is in the Marshall Islands is academic. Without the airplane the search is over with. If that airplane is not there, or Harris is chasing rainbows in the sky, I believe I would let it pass as water over the dam. So, no, you can't investigate all the Marshall Islands. It's prohibitive. The only party I'm really interested in is G. Michael Harris. Is he for real or is he for real? You can see the Donna McGuire write-up in The Kansas City Star archives at www.kansascity.com dated Monday Sept. 17, 2001, pg. B4, "Digging on land could solve Earhart mystery, expert says." So, I don't know if I'm right or wrong, or off course and off the guidelines, or I just fell in the wrong pond, or I'm beginning to sound like a broken record....but Donna McGuire and Mr. Harris sound real to me. Those postage stamps from the Marshall Islands....the plot is beginning to thicken. Here's the plot: Sherlock Homes needs to call Dr. Watson...uh, Watson is that you old chap? Oh yes I'm here Holmes are you there? Yes I'm here Watson....uh, Watson put in a call to the Marshall Islands and see if you can find this man G. Michael Harris. What for Holmes? Because I would like to talk to the man. About what? It's too complicated Watson, I'll tell you later....you don't mind do you? Not at all Holmes. It may take a few minutes....yes, yes, I understand that...please put in the call. All right...I'll call you back as soon as I know anything....good. We may have something we can bite our teeth into....like what....I don't know yet....Watson just put in the call and get the man on the phone....will you please I am suspicious of something....oh, I see. (Laughter)....I hope you enjoyed that....Carol writes plays. The Dow Theory **************************************************************************** From Ric Marty, what do I need to do to become a Jesuit? ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 09:05:55 EST From: Bruce Yoho Subject: Re: Niku IV Video Sorry Ric, did not know you had more than one. I want the Aerial tour and while you are at it, might just as well order the Niku IIII expedition also. That would be #1 and #2 Tapes for $100 Thanks Bruce *************************************************************************** From Ric BZZZZZT! Correct answer! :-) We'll send your Aerial Tour right out. The expedition tape is still in production. ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 09:22:44 EST From: Marty Joy Subject: Remote Sensing P.S. for those who want to know what Remote Sensing IS. Do you, by chance know who Art Bell is? He is a talk radio host who makes a good living putting wackos on the air. LTM( who knows a loony tunes when she hears one) Marty 0724C ************************************************************************** From Ric No, no, no....don't confuse Remote Sensing with Remote Viewing. Remote Sensing is a general term for a wide range of legitimate technologies like magnetometry, sonar, satellite imaging, etc. Remote Viewing (sometimes featured on Mr. Bell's program) is a totally bogus paranormal pseudo-science. ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 09:25:16 EST From: Woody Subject: Re: Dow Theory Ric, Any of these folks can pick up a copy of the book "Zero" by Caidin, Okuyama and Horikoshi (1956). In it the ships available for service in China on July 7th 1937 at the start of the Sino-Japanese Conflict are listed. I don't have my copy in front of me, but I know that the Kaga and Kamoi are on the list. The Akagi is not. I have never seen any documents to affirm or deny if she was in drydock at the time of Earharts dissappearance. If anyone has those documents I would like a copy, if possible. I even have a japanese interpeter at my disposal! Woody **************************************************************************** From Ric If memory serves, the dates of AKAGI's refit can be found in prewar copies of Jane's All The World's Fighting Ships. ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 11:50:03 EST From: Chris Kennedy Subject: Re: Proving and Disproving I typed a scenario, but let's try this first: What TIGHAR seems to be saying is that it won't consider the Niku hypothesis disproved until someone actually finds or discovers the plane and/or crew somewhere else. What happens in the event that someone proves that the plane did not have enough fuel to reach Niku. I mean "proves"--scientifically impossible; Tom King, the approved experts, Alan Caldwell, etc. all agree, no arguments. What's TIGHAR's response? --Chris Kennedy *************************************************************************** From Ric It can't be done. I don't care how many expert opinions you line up, you're still left with opinion, not proof. It's exactly what Elgen Long tried to do in his book - and here we are. Let's turn it around. Any rational assessment of the airplane's fuel situation shows that it should have been a physical impossibility for the flight to reach anywhere in the Marshall Islands, but that doesn't prove that it didn't somehow happen. I think you may be confusing the courtroom with the real world. All that counts in court is what you can "prove" to the jury, but what that really means is what you can convince a jury is true. That's why jury selection is the way it is. We don't get to select our jury and we have to operate to a much higher standard. Now, let's suppose that tomorrow we learn of famous wealthy recluse and aviation enthusiast Marvin Greenblatt who, with his wife Norma, attempted to fly across the Pacific in November 1937 in the 10E Special he had secretly purchased from Lockheed. The Greenblatts shunned all publicity and their disappearance was unknown to anyone but their son Clarence who only revealed the tragedy on his deathbed last week. Turns out that the trans-Pacific flight was scheduled to fly from Port Moresby, New Guinea to Tahiti using Gardner Island as a checkpoint. A note in a bottle, verified to be in Norma's handwriting, washed up on a beach in Chile in 1967. She described their landing on the reef at Gardner north of the shipwreck, the aircraft's destruction by the surf, Marvin's death in a shark attack, and her own attempts to survive at a small campsite near a bare patch of coral in the shape of a seven. Near death from blood poisoning after falling on the coral while gathering clams, Norma had written the note, put it in one of the two Benedictine bottles she had salvaged from the plane, and flung it into the sea. The bottle and note finally reached Clarence in 1982, by which time the was obviously nothing that could be done. Such a revelation would certainly discourage TIGHAR from further investigation on Nikumaroro but it would not prove that Earhart was never there. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 11:51:30 EST From: Stuart Alsop Subject: Akagi A quick web search came up with these links for the Akagi: http://www.history.navy.mil/photos/sh-fornv/japan/japsh-a/akagi2.htm http://www.warships1.com/JAPcv01_Akagi.htm According to these, the refit took place from 1935 to 1938. FWIW ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 09:25:05 EST From: Alexander Subject: Re: Carol Linn Dow Theory A few years back the russians shot a passenger jet out of the sky because it went into their airspace... Of course the RUSSIANS said that it was spying but they still shot it down... So by a long stretch of the imagination what if say an aeroplane in 1937 wandered into japanese controlled space and the same happened... would that be possible at all or would they just let it fly past... of course i'm not saying that this did happen but that would a point in the shot down/crashed/japanese got them myth... (no doubt this wont make it but i would be interested in your thoughts on that matter ric) ************************************************************************** From Ric There actually was a case of an American plane making an unauthorized entry into Japanese airspace in the 1930s. The two crewmembers were admonished and released. ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 09:26:17 EST From: Dan Postellon Subject: Re: Dow Theory Donna McGuire write-up in The Kansas City Star archives at www.kansascity.com dated Monday Sept. 17, 2001, pg. B4, "Digging on land could solve Earhart mystery, expert says." Your link is broken. You can't get there from here. Those postage stamps from the Marshall Islands....the plot is beginning to thicken. Here's the plot: You really have to talk to a stamp collector. It is not at all unusual for non-existent events to be depicted on stamps, particularly from small countries that use them as a source of revenue. The most famous of these may be a camel racing a train on old stamps from Tuva. Tuva had camels, but still doesn't have trains! Stamps are propaganda, an should be taken with a very large grain of salt. Dan Postellon TIGHAR #2263 LTM (Who never put stamp hinges on her best finds.) ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 09:39:39 EST From: Carol Linn Dow Subject: Re: Dow Theory Harris is saying the Marshall Islanders witnessed the Japanese haul the airplane to a spot further inland (not the beach) where they built a bunker, hid the airplane from view, and later, after the start of WW II, covered it up with dirt to protect it from American bombs. What they wanted with the airplane I have no idea except as possible salvage for parts. If anything it would have been a liability to them and would have inflamed the American public if it was found. The Electra was nothing more than a commercial airliner with added fuel tanks. By the way, Diane Keaton made an Earhart TV film recently. It ended close to the way you suggested and has since faded into obscurity. No one paid any attention to it....the critics shot it down. So, I can't go that route...it's already been done, and it failed. Will fill out your application blank and send it in along with the contribution. Would really like to sit back and watch the discussion now....it's very interesting and very well done. I have also probably made a lot of mistakes in some of the statements I made. Carol Linn Dow ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 09:42:28 EST From: Marty Subject: Re: Dow Theory > From Ric > > Marty, what do I need to do to become a Jesuit? Leave Pat and the boys, give up TIGHAR, accept Roman Catholicism, do two years in the novitiate, two years of philosophy, four years of theology, take vows of poverty, chastity, obedience to Jeb superiors, and obedience to the Pope. On the whole, I think you'll find it easier to find teeth on Niku than to join the Jebs. :o( Marty #2359 ************************************************************************** From Ric I see what you mean. ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 09:43:28 EST From: Dick Pingrey Subject: Re: Carol Linn Dow Theory Carol, you still don't explain how Amelia and Fred were very near Howland ("We must be on you but can not see you" plus the strength of their radio signal) and then later she reported flying on the "line of position". It is a little hard to do those things and still get back and be captured by the Japanese in the Marshalls. Opinion with out hard evidence doesn't mean much. In TIGHAR's case we have started with a theory and have found a large body of evidence that supports that theory. Where is the evidence to support your theory? We would have to discount fairly conclusive evidence to even consider your theory is possible. Until you or someone can take us beyond that problem it is hard to give very much serious thought to your theory. We are still making good progress in the research that continues to support the TIGHAR theory. It would be a mistake to divert or efforts from what we are doing unless there is stong evidence to support making a change. A theory is not evidence. Dick Pingrey 908C ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 09:47:50 EST From: Chris Subject: Re: Dow Theory & Nauticos Two questions, I check every couple of months on the Nauticos site, and it hasn't been updated since last March(?). Do you know any scuttlebutt on their Earhart expedition that was supposed to be this winter sometime? Also, I'd like to know what Carol Dow is taking (or smoking) and where I could get some? Chris in Petaluma #2511 *************************************************************************** From Ric Last I heard Nauticos was still looking for investors. No expedition scheduled as far as I know. Mr. Kammerer is till talking about doing a deep sea search later this spring but that depends upon upcoming sea trials of the remote vehicle they plan to use. Carol sounds like she is trying hard to get up to speed on the Earhart investigation. Let's be patient. ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 09:50:12 EST From: Chris Kennedy Subject: Re: Proving and disproving > Such a revelation would certainly discourage TIGHAR from further > investigation on Nikumaroro but it would not prove that Earhart was never > there. Thank you, Ric. --Chris ********************************************************************** From Ric You're welcome, Chris ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 09:51:17 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: Re: Dow Theory For Carol Dow I recommend that Carol look up Goerner's interview of Eric Sussman, who talked to the natives at Mili as a Peace Corp member in the mid 60s, and the report of LCDR Harris Powers, USN, who was dispatched by the Navy in 1944 to interrogate Japanese POWS at Jaluit. For Goerner, that put the cork in the bottle about the possibility the Electra landed at Mili and was transported to Jaluit in Jul 37. It should be worth examining in evaluating the Mili/Jaluit connection, at least in Goerner's opinion. Ron Bright ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 09:54:23 EST From: Mike Van Holsbeck Subject: Re: Proving and Disproving >From Ric, > >Now, let's suppose that tomorrow we learn of famous wealthy recluse and >aviation enthusiast Marvin Greenblatt who, with his wife Norma, attempted to >fly across the Pacific in November 1937 in the 10E Special he had secretly >purchased from Lockheed. The Greenblatts.. Have you thought of a side career of fiction novels? I bet you could make millions from the things floating around in your head. That was a great short story to start with..... now we need a pen name for you... HHMMMMM anyone have an suggestion? And as far as the jury thing. Right again. You have not proved she was there, but you have convinced me. This forum is not only educational but from what I see, Very entertaining. Mike ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 09:55:56 EST From: Daryll Subject: incredible ,..YES! << From Ric The incredible thing to me is that anyone takes that stuff seriously enough to try to "research" it. It's like engaging a team of meteorologists to show that it is impossible for a house containing a little girl from Kansas to be transported intact to an alternate universe.>> GEEZ Ric...., my (and a few others) sentiments exactly about the NIKU hypothesis ! *************************************************************************** From Ric To each his own. ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 10:08:18 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Hypotheses >Only if it could be shown decisively that Niku is not a good place >to search would it make sense to dedicated limited resources to >searching elsewhere for the remains of the plane and crew'.. L>TM >Marty. Sorry, I know I've sworn off this thread ! But there is one highly 'scientific' way of _proving_ that Gardner/Nikumaroro Island IS the _only_ place to search for artifacts related (however tenuously) to the AE/FN R/T/W flight & that is by locating the Electra's twin engines, which according to TIGHAR's _own_ hypothesis, should be lying on the bottom of the ocean, adjacent to the outer edge of the reef flat (algea or no algea) or 'hung-up' somewhere on the way down. Unfortunately, (admittedly) the cost of such a deep-water, _visual_ investigation off the reef-flat, would be prohibitive for TIGHAR. It's just too bad that Mr. Kammerer can't be persuaded to spend that $2.2 million (that he offered to Nauticos) investigating the _only_ deep water area where the TIGHAR hypothesis has determined those two engines _are_ located, thus satisfactorily & completely vindicating & validating the entire Niku project ! Don Neumann ************************************************************************ From Ric I sense that there is a subtle difference between the way you perceive a hypothesis and the way we do. A hypothesis is a guess. It's saying, "Okay, based upon what we've been able to find out so far, it looks like THIS might be what happened." and then figuring out some way to see if we're right. Most guesses turn out to be wrong and some guesses are easier and cheaper to check out than others, so we tend to go for the easiest and cheapest ones. ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 10:09:29 EST From: Tom King Subject: Re: Dow Theory I confess to having skipped all the Dow Theory posts until today when I happened to look at a couple of them. Has anybody suggested to Ms. Dow that she look at "Amelia Earhart's Shoes" for some story line ideas? TK *************************************************************************** From Ric Excellent suggestion. ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 10:10:57 EST From: Ross Devitt Subject: Re: Proving and Disproving How did you find out about the Greenblatt expedition? I thought that was one of the most closely guarded secrets of the 30's... Th' WOMBAT ************************************************************* From Ric Remote Viewing. ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 10:12:31 EST From: Alexander Subject: No Subject do you know ric that would make a damn fine explaination for the castaway legend...but then its only a story,pity though,you almost convinced me it had happed just by reading it...!!! ******************************************************************** From Ric Ah, the power of the written word. ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 10:14:25 EST From: Jim Tierney Subject: Re: Remote Sensing OH GOD- NO !!!!!!!!!!!!! Not Art Bell----Please lets continue to discuss/interact with people of this planet/species/race--each other---Lets leave the certifiable wackos out of this-----PLEASE Jim Tierney ************************************************************************ From Ric Yes, we have already have an adequate supply of certifiable wackos. ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 10:16:00 EST From: Tim Smith Subject: Niku aerial tour Hi, gang. Got my aerial tour of Niku on Wednesday, finally got to watch it tonight. Very well done, as everyone else has said. Especially nice job of integrating the sat images with the helo footage. Over the years, I've read virtually everything TIGHAR has put out, but this is the first time that I had a clear idea of what Niku was actually like. Well worth the price in my opinion. I'll be sending in my order for the expedition video tomorrow. LTM (who only wishes the video was LONGER) Tim Smith 1142 CE ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 10:17:09 EST From: Marty Joy Subject: Re: Remote Sensing Ref. Remote sensing vs Remote viewing. I knew as soon as I checked the website that I had screwed up. Sorry about that. LTM ( Who rarely does anything, much less screws up) Marty Joy ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 10:18:47 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Re: Carol Linn Dow >Marty, what do I need to do to become a Jesuit ?'... Have faith my son, there really _is_ a Carol Linn Dow, she has some connection with (try to remain calm) the 'Gorilla Theatre' in Kansas City ! Maybe that old line from 'Oz' (the Wizard of) would be appropriate: 'Carol, you're not in Kansas anymore' ? Death As Usual: Gorilla Theater Address:http://www.gorillatheatre.org/GorillaDeath.htm Don Neumann ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 10:25:49 EST From: Dan Postellon Subject: Problems with the hypothesis It seems unlikely to me. The Japanese would first have to find the plane, without radar in 1937. Shooting it down would be difficult, unless you were expecting it. There were no guided rockets, antiaircraft guns had limited range, and by the time you got a propeller-driven fighter aircraft airborne, the plane would be gone. Dan Postellon TIGHAR#2263 LTM (Who always flies above the flack.) ********************************************************************** From Ric Besides, when the energy in the tornado disipates sufficiently for the house to return to earth, the mass of the structure would cause it to accelerate at the usual 32 ft per second/per second and it's impact with the surface of Munchkinland would certainly cause the collapse of the woodframe farmhouse killing not only the witch upon which it landed but the girl and dog in the bedroom. ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 10:28:14 EST From: Doug Brutlag Subject: Becoming a Jesuit I don't think you'd appreciate the hair style either Ric. Doug Brutlag #2335 ************************************************************************* From Ric Marty, do you guys still do that? Just curious. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 11:47:28 EST From: Mike Everette Subject: Re: Problems with the hypothesis >Besides, when the energy in the tornado disipates sufficiently for the house >to return to earth, the mass of the structure would cause it to accelerate at >the usual 32 ft per second/per second and it's impact with the surface of >Munchkinland would certainly cause the collapse of the woodframe farmhouse >killing not only the witch upon which it landed but the girl and dog in the >bedroom. Ric, Ric, Ric... Don't you SEE? The rules of physics work differently in this case. We are dealing with a Special World here. Force is SELECTIVELY applied in Munchkinland. The house kills only the Wicked Witch of the East, for the same reason the fire does not burn the Scarecrow and the water only kills the Wicked Witch of the West. The Witches NEED KILLING. One of the first laws of fiction: Understand the rules under which your fictional world operates. The Forum is a Special World. Does this thread need killing, too? Let's help Amelia get home.... LTM (whose real name may be Glinda) and 73 Mike E. the Radio Historian (and writing teacher) **************************************************************************** From Woody Ric, If the girl and dog died- did they use stand in's? Check with your remote viewer. This is really bothering me! Woody ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 11:58:42 EST From: Marty Moleski Subject: Re: Becoming a Jesuit > From Ric > Marty, do you guys still do that? Just curious. Most of the RC clergy do not get tonsured or keep tonsure any more. My guess is that it is still practiced in some monasteries. My maternal grandfather's genes, however, are bestowing a pretty good imitation of a tonsure on me. :o( Now to drag this thread, kicking and screaming, back toward the topic: part of the fun in the forum is thinking about thinking. How do we know the past? How do we tell facts from fantasies or downright lies? How do we distinguish between reliable witnesses (Emily, for example) and unreliable (the zillions of stories about Amelia captured by the Japanese)? It was easy and cheap for me to answer Ric's question. All I had to do was look in my own head for memories of priests I've met and stories I've heard about tonsure. Getting answers about AE and FN is expensive. Finding the remainders of the bodies and the plane would be the best proof, such as it is, that some witnesses were right and others wrong. I'm betting (guessing, believing, hoping) that TIGHAR is searching the right haystack. I believe the story of the bones, shoes, and instrument box. If you would be so kind as to let me spend your money (the rector yelled at me for going over my budget last year), I would love to invest a few MILLION dollars on the reef search. To be decisive, it would have to cover a lot of very difficult territory: deep water, the ocean side of the reef, all of the crevices and canyons, the island side of the reef, the channel, the lagoon, and the shores. My imaginary search party would have to have the means of dredging up debris and testing it to find out whether it is part of the Norwich City or not. And, at the end, they'd put everything back so that the environment would not be destroyed by the search. Well, since I'm spending imaginary money, I guess I'd better increase the budget a bit. $10 million should give my dream team enough time and resources to do a pretty good search. Even then, there would be no guarantee of a definitive finding one way or the other--not even in my dreams. :o( LTM, Marty #2359 ************************************************************************** From Ric Thank you. I've learned a new term - "keeping tonsure." Yes, how do we know the past? What stories do we believe and which do we dismiss? When is a story verified as true? These questions are at the heart of our investigation and finding the answers is what keeps all of us facinated by the puzzle. If it makes the rector feel any better you can tell him that at least you got an apostate Protestant to consider joining the order. Pat and I have held an Executive Committee meeting and approved your recommended budget. Now all we have to do is raise the money. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 12:05:25 EST From: Roger Kelley Subject: Carol Lynn Dow thread.... I took Don Neumann's advice and reviewed the Gorilla Theater web site at www.gorillatheatre.org/GorillaDeath.htm and took special interest in the current play and it's production staff. I noted that the titles of the staff members are off set from the name of the individual employed in that position. I also noted that Carol Linn Dow is currently listed as a member of the production staff for the current play. A quick glance reads, "Carol Linn Dow.........Thinking Monkey." I'm just reporting the content of the web site. Don't laugh, it's for real, check the web site. LTM, Roger Kelley ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 12:51:15 EST From: Don Robinson Subject: Re: Dow Theory Ron Bright's memo brings up the question of the atoll mili in the Marshall islands which is of interest to me. I know this is off subject,but I recall being on Kwajelein in the summer of 1945 ,and running into a pilot who was an instructor with me at Pensacola. He was flying R4D'S on the short runs to and from the outer islands.He told me he had just returned from Majuro where they had just found Amelia's luggage.The word was that CDR Grow was the head honcho. CDR grow was the skipper of Ellyson Field at Pensacola when I was a cadet there in 1943 According to Fred Goerner, CDR Grow took no action on the matter. After the war was over I was in an evacuation squadron VRE-1 and had hoped we might find AE and bring her home. That was not to be,but we did bring Pappy Boington back Don Robinson *************************************************************************** From Ric Rumors of discovered Earhart evidence were rampant in the Marshalls and the Marianas. The stories (and there are dozens)follow a very consistent pattern: A soldier - almost always an enlisted man - obtains a physical object (a photo, a diary, a log book, a briefcase, luggage, a skeleton, etc., etc.) and brings it to the attention of an officer who takes custody of the evidence and swears the soldier to secrecy. The officer and the evidence disappear and nothing further is ever heard. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 12:58:47 EST From: Chris Kennedy Subject: Re: Proving and disproving Why did you insert this language from your message above my signature? I didn't send it. --Chris Kennedy Richard E. Gillespie wrote: > >From Chris Kennedy > > > Such a revelation would certainly discourage TIGHAR from further > > investigation on Nikumaroro but it would not prove that Earhart was never > > there. > > Thank you, Ric. > > --Chris > ********************************************************************** > >From Ric > > You're welcome, Chris ************************************************************************** From Ric People frequently reply to postings without specifying whihc posting they are replying to, as you did with your one line "Thank you, Ric." in reply to my lengthy answer to your earlier question. In such cases I will often drop in a short excerpt from the original posting so that forum subscribers will know the context in which the comment was made. It is never my intention to alter the intended meaning of the posting. If that happened in this case, I apologize. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 13:06:41 EST From: Patrick Gaston Subject: Becoming a Jesuit "Marty, what do I need to do to become a Jesuit?" 1. and foremost, you need to develop a fondness for learned argument which could even be perceived by others as betraying a certain intellectual arrogance (hmmmm). 2. Become a Catholic (sorry, no exceptions). 3. Minimum four years studying philosophy and theology at a Jebbie-approved institution (there are so few ....) 4. Get ordained into the priesthood (you can stay married. We have a special dispensation for that). However, this could still be difficult given your unsavory reputation. If all else fails try slipping the Bishop a fiver. 5. Undertake pilgrimage to Pamplona, where Ignatius of Loyola fell during the French siege of 1521. The exact spot is marked by a plaque in the sidewalk of the Paseo Sarasate. It was while recovering from this wound (cannon ball in the left calf) that Ignatius was inspired to found the Society of Jesus. The pilgrimage is not mandatory but can be a lot of fun if scheduled to coincide with the Fiesta de San Fermin a/k/a/ the Running of the Bulls (daily from July 7-14). 6. Forget steps 2 through 4 and concentrate on Step 5. You will not be a Jesuit but after a week of San Fermin it will no longer seem important. 7. Ask not for whom the bell tolls. Pat Gaston (educated by the rival Holy Cross order) PS While in Pamplona be sure and say hello to Mikel Urmeneta and the rest of the gang at the Kukuxumusu tee shirt shop on the Estafeta. Or just visit their website at www.kukuxumusu.com (Kukuxumusu = "kiss of the flea" in Basque). Pa'lante! *************************************************************************** From Ric Sheeeesh! And I thought the Earhart crowd was bad. Look you guys; I'll be happy to provide email addresses if you want to fight this out off-forum. I didn't expect the Spanish Inquisition. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 13:33:51 EST From: Patrick Gaston Subject: Re: Proving and disproving I agree that the Niku Hypothesis cannot be conclusively proven or disproven by fuel-consumption studies, radio-propagation studies or similar analytical tools. Nor, for that matter, can the Saipan Hypothesis, the Gilberts Hypothesis, or the Captured-by-Martians Hypothesis. The more appropriate question is whether, over the course of five expeditions, TIGHAR has developed sufficient evidence of Earhart's presence on Niku to justify further expeditions. Each potential contributor must answer this question for himself or herself. Personally I believe that, at this point, the organization's funds are more efficiently invested in going back to the books. This might include an intensified search of the PISS archives in England and elsewhere, a return to Fiji for another shot at Dem Bones, and a week-long examination of the Goerner papers in Texas. I also wonder if it would be possible to develop more information on the "wreck photo," which seems to have been forgotten but is still intriguing. And then there's the 1938-39 Kiwi survey crew. Are any of these guys still alive? Did they keep any private journals or take any personal snapshots? Don't forget the survey team was on Niku before Emily was, and only 17 months after Earhart's disappearance. If there was anything to see they should have seen it. It seems to me that most, if not all of these research efforts could be accomplished at a fraction of the cost of the average Niku expedition. Pat Gaston **************************************************************************** From Ric Make that six expeditions - if you don't count the trip to Kanton. I don't recall anyone trying to raise money right now for an immediate return to the island. In fact, Tom King has expressed our consensus that we should learn all we can from the massive amount of data collected during Niku IIII and, as you put it, "hit the books" looking for more documentation and gathering more anecdotal accounts in an attempt to understand what was going on at the Seven Site in later years so that we may better assess the significance of the various objects we found there. The Wreck Photo has not been forgotten, nor have we given up trying to locate Dem Bones. Don't make the mistake of thinking that all TIGHAR research happens on the forum. None of the original New Zealand Survey team seems to still be alive but we have recently obtained the scanned pages of a journal kept by one of the party (courtesy of his son). We also have a couple dozen photos taken during the survey. We'll be putting together a full account of what we know about the New Zealand Survey expedition for the website as soon as we can get to it. You might withold your judgement about what they "should" have seen until you know where they went and what they did. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 13:36:45 EST From: Bill Zorn Subject: Re: Dow Theory Not to split linguistic hairs, or worry the minutia of the use of the English language like a dog with an old shoe, (we never do that in the forum).... I have to take some exception to Carol Linn Dow's use of the word "recently" with respect to the TV movie with Diane Keaton about AE. "Amelia Earhart: The Final Flight" was released in 1994, a lifetime ago in the television business. Interesting casting.(?) Rutger Hauer as Fred Noonan, Bruce Dern as George Putman LTM who hopes this does not start another "if I was casting the movie it would be"....thread. Bill Zorn ************************************************************************** From Ric Ah yes, I remember it well. The alternative title was "Annie Hall Circumnavigates Southern California In A Twin Beech". ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 13:45:33 EST From: Woody Subject: Re: Dow Theory For Carol I have Admiral Soichi Kamada's war crime investigation reports from the National Archives. On Dec 20th 1943 the Admiral sent the natives away because he didn't want them injured in the US bombing. I spoke to the last surviving native present at that time on Taroa and he said the Admiral was telling the truth. I have a photo from 20 Dec 1943 that shows a plane fitting the dimensions of Amelia's, minus the left wing outboard of the engine and the flap gone, right wing removed outboard of the engine,(no, not the Brink photo). So if it's still in a revetment on the day the natives left the island in 43, who told Harris that story? As a matter of fact, there are no natives present on Taroa today that were there during the war. Only the man I spoke to on Majuro survives and at the age of 82 is a real anomaly.Because of western diets and a lack of vitamin A, 60 is old in the Marshalls.Harris doesnt know the guy exists. He does no original research, as far as I can tell. If anyone wants to determine wether or not Taroa is the final resting place of the Electra, all it takes is money. *************************************************************************** From Ric Hey Woody. If you have the photo you say you have why not let us all take a look at it and see if we agree that it's a plane fitting the dimensions of Earhart's Electra? ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 13:46:44 EST From: Woody Subject: Re: Dow Theory For Carol, I could give you Harrises phone number and email address, but he REALLY likes to sue people! Remember Madeline Albright? He sued her! Ric, I'd love to talk to Carol Linn Dow off the forum. I would like to tell everyone of my experiences with Mr. Harris on Taroa last August but most of it would be unprintable. I refrain from posting on the forum about my week on Taroa with his group because Mr. Harris is so suit happy (litigous). What I can tell you as fact is that he had no MRI equipment with him nor an archaeologist.What he did have is a middle of the road White Electronics metal detector that went off every 2 feet. It was kind of like using the detector to find car parts in a junkyard. As for the allegations that the Japanese were building bunkers at the time the photos that he has were taken- poppycock! The only photos that he had at the time that the article was written were an 8x10 that he took from another member of his group, Pat, that I had lent to Pat to use in his cartography work. He was doing a GPS reconfigugation of the coastline that is important to my work. Mr. Harris took the photo from Pat and never returned it to me. I have never recieved the redo map of the coastline, either. I'll be going back in the near future to do it myself. I gave Dr. Howell, another group member, ( no, not Thurston!) several photos of the island after the US bombing started. The point is that the Japanese were finished with all military structures and fortifications in April 1943. On Dec. 20th 1943, the cement mixer sheds were destroyed along with the mixers. I have several photos of their remains from the last trip. All of the photos that exist of the island in military and the National Arhcives were taken after 28 October 1943, so in all of the pictures that Mr. Harris (his earliest picture is from 12 Dec 1943) had at the time of the article, none would have shown new concrete construction of any fortifications, bunkers included I was never reimbursed for those other photos by Dr. Howell as agreed, either. (nice 20 x 24s too) As a matter of fact, IN MY OPINION the article that Donna wrote was pure shibai as supplied by Mr. Harris. As you can guess, I wont be doing any business with Mr. Harris again, ever. Woody ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 13:50:14 EST From: Chris Subject: Posting format I thought it might be interesting to know where the forumites are sending their messages from. I always sign my name as Chris in Petaluma, Ca. Since then I've had personal correspondence with Tom King, who saw where I was in the country (his hometown) and contacted me to let me know he was going to be here for a book signing and wanted to see if we could hook up. Also, Dick Pingrey #908C who used to live in this area contacted me from Washington State to let me know he was going to be in my area last Christmas and we ended up having coffee together in Santa Rosa. I for one had a great conversation about airplanes, theories, and AE with him. Hell of a nice guy! By signing your name and town, you never know what interesting people your going to meet! Chris in Petaluma, Ca. #2511 *************************************************************************** From Ric I'll be happy to post hometowns if anyone wants to sign their name that way. By the way, it does save me a lot of time if you start your posting with "From ....." so that I don't have to do it. That way you also get to determine how you're announced. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 13:53:52 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Dogfight over Mili >From Dan Postellon: > >It seems unlikely to me. =A0 The Japanese would first have to find the >plane, without radar in 1937. Shooting it down would be difficult, >unless you were expecting it'.. Plus the fact there is no evidence the Japanese had any 'fighter' planes in the Marshall Islands in July 1937, as there were no airfields for any land-based planes & no post-war record of any aircraft carriers in the Marshalls in that time frame, only some very slow & cumbersome 'float-planes' , which even though armed with machine guns, would have had a very difficult time 'catching' the faster Electra, even with a non-combatant such as AE at the controls! Don Neumann ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 14:00:35 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Captured by the Japanese >From Ric, >There actually was a case of an American plane making an >unauthorized entry into Japanese airspace in the 1930s. The two >crewmembers were admonished and released'... Would the two intrepid airmen have been Pangborn & Herndon, who 'ruffled' some Japanese 'feathers' in 1931, when they inadvertantly took some aerial photos of Japanese 'military' installations, while flying over the Japanese mainland, (without proper authorization) during their preparations for their TransPacific flight from Japan to California ? Flight Address:http://museum.wsd.wednet.edu/WVMCC/WFTPF/flight.htm *************************************************************************** From Ric You got it. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 14:01:45 EST From: Dan Postellon Subject: Re: Carol Linn Dow thread <> You need new glasses. She's the production assistant, Martin is the "Thinking Monkey" ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 14:07:59 EST From: Mike E. Subject: Give Carol a chance Come on, people... give Carol Linn Dow a chance. She says that she sincerely wants to participate. She says she may have gotten off on the wrong foot to start with. She wants to get up to speed on the whole Earhart project. She says she's even sent in her TIGHAR membership. All right. She has paid her dues. Let's make her welcome. But be aware, Carol... occasional sniping, and strafing runs, are part of the territory. We're glad you're joining us in the bunker. I don't know that "Thinking Monkey" may not be one of those quirky theatre terms that needs explaining. Like "Key Grip" or "Best Boy" in film credits.... Inquiring minds want to know. LTM (who never believed Darwin) and 73 Mike E. **************************************************************************** From Ric You also used to urge us to be kinder and gentler towad Janet Whitney. We'll have to make you the forum's official Champion Of The Oppressed. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 14:13:59 EST From: Herman Subject: Re: Problems with the hypothesis I don't mind if people get carried away a bit from time to time. But if "There I was" stories are off topic, how about houses being carried away by tornadoes ? And as we are trying to find out what happened to AE's Electra, is calculating the speed with which houses will impact when returning to earth not a bit off topic ? Herman 2406 *************************************************************************** From Ric You're confusing good-natured story telling with mean-spirited sarcasm. The former is occasionally on topic. The latter always. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 14:22:00 EST From: Russ Matthews Subject: Re: Becoming a Jesuit << I didn't expect the Spanish Inquisition. >> NO ONE expects the Spanish Inquistion!!!!!! LTM, Russ *************************************************************************** From Ric I wondered who would be the first to come back with the correct response and how long it would take. I should have known it would be Russ. He sent his email 11 minutes after I sent out the posting. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 14:25:56 EST From: Carol Linn Dow Subject: Re: Becoming a Jesuit Dear Richard the Lion Hearted (You have to be to have me around), I went on a ski trip Jan.19th (my birthday) and was skiing with my girl friend (she's a ski instructor), and we got our skis crossed getting of the charlift and I went up in the air and came down and bounced my head off the snow and wound up with a concussion, in the ambulance, and I woke up in the hospital with my girl friend by my side that night. I'm having trouble remembering things, but am slowly coming around. I can't even remember hitting my head on the snow. I'm doing good to send this Email. It's going to be awhile before I can get to the mail. I've got a stiff neck, I must have really jerked my head around. It's crazy because both of us are Nastar silver & gold medal skiers. I don't know what's going on sometimes (not that I ever did). Need a few more days. Have fun. Go skiing but don't knock your brains out because you can't remember things. It's January you all (isn't it).... go skiing. Carol Linn Dow *************************************************************************** From Ric See Herman? A "there I was" story that is totally on-topic. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 14:27:18 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: Woody's photo Woody and I have talked about his photo which he states is different from the photo in Brinks book taken in 1944 of Taroa, and the photo in Mark Peatties book that was taken in Dec 43. The Brinks photo and the Peattie photo are attributed to the same source the Nat. Archives, Military Div. The Peattie photo appears to be identical to Brinks, but does not show an aircraft. Although noone could confirm this, Brink claims that Dwight and John Heine "told investigators" (unidentified) helped unload the Electra at Taroa in mid July 37. Woody, scan that photo and lets put it up for analysis. Ron Bright ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 15:08:08 EST From: Dick Pingrey Subject: Home Towns and the Video Ric and Chris in Petaluma, I too often wonder where forum contributors are from. Had Chris not stated he was from Petaluma I would never have made contact with him. I certainly enjoyed our hour together over coffee at Starbucks in Santa Rosa. This past Saturday I had the pleasure of listing to Dr. Tom King's presentation at the Seattle Museum of Flight and in meeting him after the presentation. He did a great job and there was a good group in attendance. It was a long drive over the Cascade Mountains but worth it to get my copy of the book signed and to meet Tom. One last thing. The video arrived a couple of days ago and I found it very well done. Maybe you should change professions Ric. By the way I am from Selah. Bet it takes a lot of looking at a map or atleast the may index to find Selah. You can guess which state. Dick in Selah (more commonly Dick Pingrey 908C) *************************************************************************** From Ric <> I can think of several people who share that opinion. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 10:02:34 EST From: Dick Pingrey Subject: Pangborn and Herndon It may be of interest that a replica of Pangborn's and Herdon's airplane is being built in Wenatchee, WA where they landed after crossing the Pacific from Japan in 1931. Actually, they are rebuilding a wrecked airplane of the same model that was recovered by helicopter in Alaska. The plan is to recreate the full around the world flight on the 75th anniversary of the original. Clyde Pangborn's grandson or nephew (I am not certain which it is) is working on the project and hopes to fly the last leg to Wenatchee. For those that don't know the story, the airplane was taken off on a dolly that was droped after the flight was in the air. That way they got rid of the weight and drag of the landing gear. The release didn't work so Pangborn had to climb out and kick it free in flight. The west side of the Cascade Mountains was socked in with fog when they arrived so they flew inland to Wenatchee where it was clear and landed on the belly skid. Wenatchee's airpor t is named Pangborn Field. I vistited the hangar in Wenatchee were the work on the airplane is under way in September. I don't recall what happened to the original airplane. If it is stuck away in a barn some where it might be an interesting TIGHAR project to find it. I am sure some of our folks know what happened to it. Dick in Selah (Dick Pingrey 908C) ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 10:04:10 EST From: Lawrence Subject: Re: Woody's photo Is there any evidence of any twin engine aircraft crashing in the Marshall Islands prior to WWII? Thanks, Lawrence *************************************************************************** From Ric Not that I know of. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 10:10:22 EST From: Tom King Subject: Re: Posting format (formerly of Petaluma, now, unfortunately, of Silver Spring MD) Chris in Petaluma's question reminds me of one I got at the end of a talk I did yesterday at the Museum of Flight in Seattle (Thanks, Dick Pingrey, for driving clear over the Cascades to swell the ranks and make a pitch for the Forum). The question was whether TIGHAR has local chapters, to which I responded in the negative but suggested the Forum as our sort of cyber-chapter. Whether organized chapters are a good idea or not, I think the idea of encouraging interaction among TIGHARs in regions where there's some kind of critical mass would be a good one. *************************************************************************** From Ric We tried (unsuccessfully) for years to come up with some way to make a network of local chapters make sense. However, periodic get-togethers of TIGHARs in regions where there is, as you say, a critical mass would be fun. We could get Marty to officiate. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 10:16:21 EST From: Tom King Subject: Re: Give Carol a chance Incidentally, in response to Carol's revelation that Donna McGuire at the Kansas City Star is interested in Earhart disappearance theories, Altamira Press is sending Ms. McGuire a copy of "Amelia Earhart's Shoes" to review. Can't hurt. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 10:17:32 EST From: Mike E. Subject: The Oppressed I respectfully bring before the bench, the following evidence regarding Carol Linn Dow and Janet Whitney... Ms. Dow has paid her dues (or claims to have sent them in). Ms. Dow has asked for forgiveness and professes repentance. Ms. Dow deserves consideration. Ms. Whitney did neither. Ms. Whitney did herself in by her own words and attitude. Bombs Away. LTM (who insists that the children play fair) and 73 Mike E. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 10:22:44 EST From: Angus Subject: Re: Becoming a Jesuit > From Ric > > See Herman? A "there I was" story that is totally on-topic. Richard the Hardhearted, Your ironic tone is quite misplaced. It is obvious as the nose on your face that Carol is diligently researching the effect that Noonan's headwound and a few drinks would have had on his state of mind and consequent actions and has selflessly sacrificed herself on the altar of knowledge for the benefit of us all. This noble and heroic act has been met with undeserved scorn and you should be ashamed and chastened. The information we will gain could be incalculable. Angus **************************************************************************** From Ric This forum is like a pack of sled dogs. If we don't keep working we get snarly. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 10:26:31 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: Proving and Disproving in Austin, TX (if I'm going to begin this way I need a macro) How do I do that in AOL? > Any rational > assessment of the airplane's fuel situation shows that it should have been a > physical impossibility for the flight to reach anywhere in the Marshall > Islands, but that doesn't prove that it didn't somehow happen. Amen, Ric. If anyone will simply take the time to run out a fuel schedule even just using Kelly Johnson's telegram info they will quickly see that for AE to have flown up to Truk and across they would run out of fuel in the Marshalls. It takes no special knowledge to do fuel and distance calculations. Just a little simple math. Calculators are acceptable. All the fuel info is on the web site and all the distances may be found on any decent size map. There is a suggestion of a radio contact or sighting near Nauru. Is that supportable or just nonsense? I think there is supposed to be a report of a plane flying at night over one of the Gilberts (Tabiteuea). I assume that's mere hearsay. The evidence that they were close to Howland, however, seems more difficult to toss out. But to get them to the Marshalls the Nauru story, the Gilbert story and the Howland evidence MUST be tossed out. Don't take my or anyone else's word just run the fuel from Lae to Howland and tell me how to come up with significantly more than 150 gallons of fuel. Then tell me how to stretch that fuel to Mili Atoll. Anyone? Ah! But there is another possibility. The Japanese came down to Niku and took the airplane and our daring duo back up to the Marshalls. What Japanese ship was capable of doing that? A seaplane tender? Or could some other kind of ship do that? If anyone has an answer to that tell me what ship and what supports that particular ship being available in the Phoenix group to do that. Now tell me how they were able to get the plane from the reef or beach out to the ship. For all this supposition we can ignore "WHY." I can't think of any rational reasons for either scenario. Oh! I can make some up but not rational ones. I'm not being facetious. I would really like for someone to do this. I have to tell you I absolutely cannot support getting the plane into the Marshalls. Alan #2329 ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 10:34:40 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: Two-tone heels > . All of the > photos showing AE wearing her blucher oxfords around the time of the World > Flight (and there are about a dozen) consistently show that the "inside" part > of the heel is light colored while the "outside" part is dark. It took us a > long time to realize that what we're looking at is a rather odd two-tone heel Ric, I'm probably missing something but is there any other evidence that a two-toned heel ever existed? Why would anyone make a two-toned heel? Decoratively I could see two-toned layers but from inside to outside it would be hard for anyone to know it was like that. If the answer to my first question is no then is there another possible answer that could explain why the heels appeared to be two-toned but maybe were not? If the answer to my first question is yes then just delete my post and never mind. Alan #2329 *************************************************************************** From Ric We've had several anecdotal recollectons of two-tone heels from people on the forum, but no hard documentation. It seems that heels were produced that featured two different grades of rubber - a "hard" grade for the outside where most wear usually occurs and a softer grade on the inside for comfort. Finding the hard documentation might best be done by researching period trade catalogs from which manufacturers and shoe repair shops ordered heels. We have a good industrial/historical research library right here in Wilmington, DE at the DuPont Corporation's Hagley Museum. I'll try to get over there and see what I can find. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 10:35:24 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: Viretic Twitch Don, your grammar is fine. Its the little underlines between words that catch their attention. Alan #2329 ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 10:37:39 EST From: Woody Subject: Woody's photos Harris has one of the photos in question. I am again a working stiff because of Sept 11(no funds to go back to Taroa for a while.) I will get copies made with my next check (OOH a paycheck!)to send to you and when the purloined one is copied from the NA it will be on the way. I will send them to you for comments and study. No problem! Woody ************************************************************************** From Ric Excellent. And I'll be happy to share them with the forum via the website. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 10:39:12 EST From: Woody Subject: Re: Woody's photo Ron, I disagree with you on the Heine statement. The Heines were 11 and 12, I believe in 1937. There was no Japanese military presence on Taroa in 1937. Base construction started in 1939, thats when the dock was constructed.( you need one to unload ships). The date is written in the concrete in Japanese. Everybody likes to finger-paint in the stuff. I think it is much more likely that they saw it unloaded between June 1943 and 28 Oct 1943( First photo of Taroa by US) when they were 17 and 18 and working as stevedores on Japanese cargo ships. I have never seen a narrative stating they saw it in 1937 being unloaded there, its an assumption made in error by many. My dates are drawn from personal deduction, timelining and a little common sense. Since the dock wasn't built until 1939 and they wern't old enough to work until 1940, I can't see 1937 as being possible. There are other reasons for the June 1943 date that would fill several pages of a book. Maybe later. Woody ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 10:41:48 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: Dow Theory Carol, I'm sorry but I must have missed "all" the talk about me and smoking guns. I don't recall ever using the term though I may have. Also I have never suggested we needed a "smoking gun" for any purpose if that's what that means. If it means anything else it is completely lost on me. Many of my posts are designed to show what was possible or likely to be impossible in my opinion. I have never made a requirement that there be positive proof of anything in order to prove or disprove someone's theory. I HAVE suggested strongly the theory ought to at least be possible. You might just think a moment as to why TIGHAR is not looking in the Marshalls and why NOONE EVER looked there. By "noone" I am referring to the official search in 1937 not would be authors of books. I would also refer you to my post challenging anyone to propose a supportable scenario that gets the Electra into the Marshalls. (Supportable" doesn't mean PROOF. It means rational or at least possible) Now as to your radios commentary let me ask how you know what the belly antenna was for? Not opinion. I'm a pilot also as are a number of forumites. Most have more than 500 hours and many have far more than my 4,000 hours. I can assure you I've switched radio frequencies like crazy when I desperately needed to communicate something of a dire nature. To sit on one freq without apparently getting through would be utterly foolish. Your suggestion they might have been out of range is well taken, however. Not for the reason I know you are suggesting. Between the night and day frequencies AE used they had different ranges of success as a review of the message traffic should show you. There is also no question they might have turned back toward the Gilberts. Not to Tarawa as it was far out of range but certainly they could have headed toward the nearest island. My question to you is how was Noonen to navigate to that island? He had the sun behind him. How does he shoot sun shots and even if he could they would only be speed lines -- no course line. Look at a map and you will see how widely spaced the islands are. How would he know he was heading for any particular piece of ground? You might also notice the distance from Howland. And don't suggest they turned back well before reaching Howland. How would that make sense? They wouldn't have known they couldn't find it if they did that. Sorry. You need not only to sit back and listen but get out a good map, ruler, plotter and calculator and show everyone where they are wrong. There is no need to apologize to me for whatever reason you think is necessary and I hope we can solve the mystery so your play is not unduly delayed. Hope it is in the final stages and you can think of a nice exciting ending. Glad you are joining this motley crowd. Alan #2329 ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 11:01:58 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: Dow Theory Ric, I can't believe it. I've been suckered into responding to Dow theories again. Never again. If I do don't post them. Alan #2329 *********************************************************************** From Ric We have a twelve step program. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 11:07:30 EST From: Woody Subject: Re: Woody's photo To Ron, I haven't seen the Peattie book or photo but the only photos that don't show the G3M2 Nell that is still in the revetment today , by the way -were taken 28 Oct , 12 Nov, 12 Dec and 20 Dec 1943. I believe that the Peattie book has the 20 Dec photo in it. There is smoke billowing up from the hangar fire right by the revetment in the Brink photo that holds the Nell( the Brink photo was taken on 28 Dec 1943. The date stamped on it is the date that the War Materials Board- the censors- released the photo for publication.)- the Nell is partially obscured in that smoke plume and is intact at the time. Today, underneath the remains of the rear of the plane is a cart used to pull it into the revetment after the L wing was blown off. The wing is still there about 50 feet away from the rear of the plane. The sequence of events is easy to see if you have all of the photos of the island from 28 Oct 1943 to April 1944 as I do. I went to great lengths to obtain the dates those pictures taken, versus the stamped dates that were put on them when released for publication. It took 2 trips to the NA and 3 weeks of digging to find all that I could on Taroa, and I have still overlooked a few items( next time I'm flying!) It can be misleading if you dont correlate the pictures with the dates of the photo runs done during the bombing and look at the 3x5 cards that give the actual photo dates, and in some cases, request the original film rolls from cold storage.Did I miss anything? I hate typing- Woody ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 11:10:35 EST From: Woody Subject: Re: Captured by the Japanese For Don Neumann In 1935 Lowell Thomas and Rex Barton flew a Sikorsky twin engined amphibian from the US to Japan via Alaska, The Kuriles and Ryuku Islands. They were intercepted in Tokyo by 3 carrier launched fighters that escorted them to the airport. The airport CO went over their papers and informed them that they couldnt do any more flying over Japan until they were ready to leave the country. The book is "Wings over Asia" 1937 published by the John C Winston Company. Woody ************************************************************************* From Ric Okay, so now that's two pre-war incidents in which American flights entered Japanese airspace without permission and no one was "held captive." ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 11:20:21 EST From: David Kelly Subject: Re: Proving and Disproving (Sydney - "Great Southern Land") I recall on this forum the mention of the HMNZS/HMS Archilles being involved in the '43 survey. Is this my faulty memory? Regards David ************************************************************************ I'm not aware of Achilles being involved in any survey of Niku and I'm quite sure that she served in the Atlantic at least in the early years of the war. The 1938/39 New Zealand Survey was supported by HMS Leander. The 1943 "survey" that supposedly selected the southeast tip of the island as the location for the U.S. Coast Guard Loran station is something of a mystery. We've never been able to find a report or official record of it beyond a visit by a U.S. Coast Guard PBY bringing the British District Officer from Canton to ask the village elders for permission to build the station. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 11:23:52 EST From: Dennis McGee Subject: Ric's nom de plume Mike Van Holsbeck suggested Ric should write a book about this stuff but believes Ric needs a pen name (nom de plume). Well, things are slow here and on the AE Forum, so here goes (Haven't we done this before?): How about ethnically correct Scott S. Mann (Scotsman)? Or one showing leadership qualities, such as Irvin M. Daboz (I am Da Boss)? But we can't ignore the work already done, so how about William E. Nothat (We know that)? On the "cute scale" this may be a two, but I kind of like Allan E. Selectra (AE's Electra)? (With apologies -- but no royalties -- to IBM for besmirching the name of its typewriter.) Or if Dubya was submitting nominations I think you see something like Ric "The Island Boy" Gillespie. Ok, guys and gals, now is the time to pile on!!! Go get 'em! LTM, who is in a playful mood today Dennis O. McGee #0149EC **************************************************************************** From Ric To paraphrase Julie Andrews - somewhere in my youth or childhood I must have done something truly awful. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 11:26:25 EST From: Marty Moleski Subject: Re: Posting format > From Ric > We tried (unsuccessfully) for years to come up with some way to make a > network of local chapters make sense. However, periodic get-togethers of > TIGHARs in regions where there is, as you say, a critical mass would be > fun. We could get Marty to officiate. I'd be delighted to host meetings in the Buffalo area from time to time when I'm back home in Buffalo. I'm in Chicago unil April 10 doing some reading in non-Amelia archives at the U of C. After that, I hope to drive out west to see family and friends. There's a restaurant by the airport called Flying Tigers. I've only been there once. Probably a little pricey, but you can't beat the location. :o) For a more high-minded and less expensive site (no food or drink), we could visit the little air museum in Niagara Falls. Buffalo had some aviation ties from the days of Curtis until the 60s (the X-planes, helicopters, hovercraft, the rocket belt). If we have any historic aircraft to recover in the area, they're probably not buried in sand. Marty #2359 Buffalo, NY ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 12:54:30 EST From: Michael Subject: Achilles It defenitely would not have been HMS Achilles in any 1943 "survey." She took a bomb hit on January 5, 1943 off New Georgia and proceeded to Portsmouth, England for repairs and modifiaction, which took until May 1944. (Source: M.J. Whitney "Cruisers of World War Two") Best wishes, Michael (in Charlotte, not to be confused with other southeastern cities being with "Ch") ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 12:55:15 EST From: Dick Pingrey Subject: Group meetings I think there is great value in having people meet face to face from time to time. There may be several ways of doing it but no matter how it is accomplished I am for the idea. Dick Pingrey in Selah 908C ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 12:57:01 EST From: Angus Subject: Re: Two-tone heels Alan, If you look carefully at the pic on the Tighar website showing the soles of either Pair1 or Pair 2 (identity not decided*), it is apparent that this pair at least, definitely had two tone heels. One can see the straight dividing line between the inside and outside. One expects to see the nearest heel in profile, but further inspection shows the heel angled toward the viewer and there is no doubt about the fact that inside and outside are different colours. Of course AE was involved in promotional work on items like clothes and suitcases and it is possible that research as to the identity of her sponsors might establish the source of these shoes. Since few people in the ordinary way buy two pairs of shoes from the same manufacturer, a link with a sponsor might explain why both according to Ric, appear to have the two tone heels. This* particular pair are unlikely to have needed re-heeling as the rear edge of the heel looks unworn. It is just possible that all the pics showing two tone (ie when one can see both feet from opposite sides) are of this pair, and the other pics which show a lighter colour to the lower layer actually show a replacement heel of the Cat's Paw type which appears lighter because the mould release agent has not yet worn off. Regards Angus ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 12:58:29 EST From: Bob Brandenburg in San Diego Subject: Re: Dow Theory Alan, I fully agree with your response to Carol. It doesn't make sense to go looking for the Electra in places where it can't be. The first step in arguing for a search in any given place must be a logical demonstration that the aircraft could actually have reached that place. Forumites may recall that in October 2000, I suggested a simple way to test the hypothesis that Earhart headed for the Gilberts upon failing to find Howland. The test depended only upon the physical feasibility of the hypothesis, and had 5 minimum essential elements including, inter alia, a flight plan plus details of navigation feasibility, and an explanation of the logical basis on which Earhart would decide that the plan was a feasible alternative to proceeding to the Phoenix Islands. Interested readers will find the posting on the TIGHAR web site. There have been no takers thus far. The same procedure can be used to test the feasibility of the Marshalls hypothesis. LTM, Bob #2286 ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 09:24:01 EST From: Daryll Subject: Re: Captured by the Japanese << From Ric Okay, so now that's two pre-war incidents in which American flights entered Japanese airspace without permission and no one was "held captive." >> Ric, it's a matter of timing..... AE/FN went down on Mili on July 2, 1937, simply out of gas in the wrong place at the wrong time. While waiting on Mili for the KOSHU to arrive from Jaluit, (July 13-16th) war broke out in China (July 7, 1937). Whether the incident at the Marco Polo bridge was planned or not, Japan turned aggressor against the Chinese and was at_war_. War 101 states that you need oil to conduct a war. Unlike WWII four years later, Japan was not actively engaged in taking over oil supplies in Indonesia. The U.S. was still a significant oil supplier to Japan and a Chinese ally. Chennault had quit his army job (SOP) and had just arrived in China in June, 1937 to help the Chinese air force organize. Not having an "oil supply" plan for the Chinese war, Japan recognized that the U.S. had them over the "(oil) Barrel". Because things hadn't shaken out politically when AE went down, Japan was still counting their cards trying to evaluate their hand. AE had to be a face card in the "Roosevelt" suit. It's a card that you wouldn't readily discard. Yamamoto fancied himself a poker player. It should be very clear to us in todays world how political hostages are used. Daryll *************************************************************************** From Ric I see. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 09:25:22 EST From: Russ Plehinger Subject: Pangborn-Herndon The Pangborn-Herndon airplane, a Bellanca CH-400 Skyrocket dubbed Miss Veedol, was later renamed American Nurse and disappeared on a flight across the Atlantic in September of 1932. Pilot William Ulbrich along with Dr. Leon M. Pisculli and Edna Newcomer were never seen again. Russ Plehinger Orchard Park NY ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 09:34:05 EST From: Carol Linn Dow Subject: Re: Carol Linn Dow Theory (Apparently for Dick Pingrey.) Dear Dick, I just now am coming back to the world after a ski accident. No, absolutely not, please don't abandon your Gardner Island search...never, never, look at the time and effort you have in on it. The only point I would make is that I believe this G. Michael Harris should be checked into....is he for real or is he for real? The one who got me on this track was a navigator in Hawaii from WW II...Rollin Reineck.... Here's some points I would make: 1. If the Harris search comes up with the airplane, Tighar is left completely out of any credits and that would be tragedy. I'm repeating...look at the time effort you have in the search. Tighar and its moderator, Richard Gillespie, is the best search group, and I'm a member, and I don't believe we should leave any stones unturned (matter of opinion). 2. Reineck believes Earhart was to the north and west of Howland and caught up in the cumulus that was reported in that area. One of the problems with that part of the Pacific is that we are dealing with the tropical convergence zone (so I found out), and the weather is extremely changeable....now you see it...now you don't. Earhart starts out at 10,000 ft. then she reports in at 7,000 ft. with heavy cumulus, then the next time she reports an altitude she checks in at 1,000 ft. That's an extremely... repeat extremely... dangerous altitude to be flying at over open water. It's crazy! Pilots don't do things like that unless they are forced down to lower levels by CU. Also, they did not have weather avoidance radar (one reason why I sold my airplane) in those days and there is no way you can tell the thickness or the extent of cloud formations ahead. A heavy thunderstorm can tear the wings off an airplane... it has happened. The Dallas Morning News won a Pulitzer prize recently for an article they did about the crash of a Cessna biz. jet on a flight from Dallas to Teterboro, New Jersey. I have the article around here someplace. It is frightening. 3. I personally am very suspicious about the series of events that happened in the Earhart case. Why would Earhart take a chance on trying to find another island similar in size (and isolated) the same as Howland? Even is she got there, where was the support she needed to continue the flight. The Navy reports (available on CD from Ebay) clearly state that the Navy could not understand why Earhart could not find Howland Island. Not only that but it was clear at Howland on the morning of Sept. 2, 1937, and it was clear all the way down to Gardner Island...no one has ever disputed those statements. If it was clear, why couldn't Noonan navigate his way to Howland? Why didn't they keep trying? Why try to navigate to another isolated island where there was no help and assistance...none, nothing but crabs running around on the beach. 4. Dick, I'm looking at this from a pilot's perspective. If I was out there in the Pacific I would have tried to set down in the water as close as I could get to Howland. The waters were calm and the sea was smooth....perfect for a water landing....tail first....then it would have pitched forward and floated for a long period of time. The plane had 5,000 lbs buoyancy over gross weight. All the help and assistance she needed on this flight was right there at Howland Island, and they knew a search party would have been sent out. They might have ditched their parachutes at New Guinea but flying over open water they needed those life rafts and life preservers. No debris field was ever found. No floating bodies....nothing ever washed up on shore...nothing. The report that came in from the Itasca were that the exhaust stack smoke just puffed up in the air and then settled across the surface of the sea....the same thing that happened with the bonfire they were supposed to build....it just settled down on the surface sea.....the winds must have been very calm.....perfect ditching conditions. The Long book made a point of the wind conditions, and Long also contends Earhart set down within 100 miles of Howland Island. That close! Why didn't they find her and the airplane or parts of it at least.....hard to believe. In fact, the Long book is hard to believe....it's pushing the envelope....the story doesn't fit. 5. So, the question remains what happened? If I was out there in the Pacfiic flying along with an airplane low on fuel and couldn't find an island because of a hot tropical sun in my face, I would have saved enough fuel to make it back to Tarawa. The Navy Dept. reports made a very important point of the fact that the only reason why Earhart couldn't find Howland, in their opinion, was because of the glare of the sun in their face. So Earhart and Noonan went up and down the LOP line, one side of the plane would have given them excellent vision. The other side of the plane might have been useless because of the sun. Still they couldn't find anything. Then the radios....ye gads, the radios. Do you realize that Earhart reached up and switched off a valid radio contact on this flight to another frequency....right at the worst possible time. That's something pilots don't do....what was it fatigue and disorientation? THAT CAN HAPPEN DON'T LAUGH IT HAS HAPPENED TO ME. One time Carol is flying into Dallas-Addison at night, and I couldn't figure out if the landing gear was down. You get dizzy flying there with a collection of dials and levers staring you in the face for hours and hours....fatigue. It happens. 6. I wouldn't rule out the possibility that Earhart and Noonan headed for Tarawa in the Gilberts where there was aviation fuel available, and they could replan their trip Tarawa-Honolulu. Tarawa was under British control. Only what happened? Were they caught in the tropical convergence zone and had to start dodging night time thunderstorms? Limping along, low on fuel, desperately trying to find land that they knew was in the Gilberts (which they just flew over)....did they accidentally wander into the Marshalls? Rollin Renieck in Hawaii (a B-29 navigator from WW II) says they could have done exactly that. I wish I still had his Email on line so I could send it to you. I was impressed with what he said because it sounded very reasonable. 7. So, should our group abandon the Gardner Island search....no, no. If you think you have a valid premise...go with it. Yes, I'll take your suggestion and go through the archives because you have the best archives on Earhart I have ever seen. No one can come anywhere close. 8. So what is Carol's suggestion? Carol thinks our group should check out Harris. Is he for real or is he for real? Dick, I'm exhausted after wrting all of this. My little brain is tired after getting banged up on the ski slopes. I have to go rest. I can't do too much. Carol Inn Dow **************************************************************************** From Ric Dick, if you try to reply to this I will not post it. Carol, you have not recovered from your head injury. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 09:41:59 EST From: Carol Subject: Re: Dow Theory Tom, The problem I have with the play is that it is staged in the year 1939, two years after she disappeared. Mack Brown, a veteran newspaper reporter, is trying to publish a Sunday review on her mysterious disappearance. He's trying to figure out what happened, and he comes up with a "theory." The only trouble is he can't prove it. So do I need Tighar? You bet. Somewhere along the line it has to be right. Who is this Harris? He worries me, and I would much rather prefer the finders of the mystery be Tighar and Richard Gillespie's people. The shoes didn't come up until just a few years ago, so I can't figure out a way to work them in. But let me think about it. Carol *************************************************************************** From Ric While you're thinking about it and recovering from your head injury I will impose the Substantive Posting Rule for your own protection. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 09:47:42 EST From: A. Bridgeman Subject: Re: Dow Theory I saw the subject of luggage/FN's flite bag, etc mentioned in a History Channel program about WWII Pacific battles several years ago. I wasn't involved with TIGHAR then so and didn't note when/what program, etc. If anything were actually turned in to Marine or Army intelligence, there might be entries in logs. After the war a lot of intelligence stuff that turned up was just piled back in government warehouses and forgotten. Or piled into someone's seabag. Whatever happened, some researcher who wrote the script for the History Channel must have run across some document somewhere to have written it in. A. Bridgeman #2486 **************************************************************************** From Ric I don't know how to break this to you, but the History Channel will run anything that sells advertising time. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 09:58:30 EST From: Woody Subject: Re: Woody's photo To Lawrence, There are anecdotal accounts of a Japanese 2 man torpedo plane being lost along with the lives of the crew in March 1937. I have never been able to ascertain what type of plane. Matt Holly, the divemaster for the Loomis trip ( he says that there wasnt a sober soul in that group the entire trip) has heard the stories and told me that there is a torpedo and aircraft remains still there, but he's never taken a look. There is a small section about it in Don Wilson's book. Woody ************************************************************************* From Ric Every once in a while, when things are slow, we open the gates and allow some excursions into the Japanese Capture Theory if only to see if anything at all has yet come to light to support it. If Woody produces his photo we'll look at it. Otherwise I think we need to close the gates again. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 10:01:49 EST From: Tom MM Subject: Niku Essential Conditions? For Bob B. Appended below is the list of Essential Conditions from your post of Oct 18, 2000. I have always wondered how those conditions were fulfilled for the Niku hypothesis, particularly #3 onward. When you get the chance, could you please take the Essential Conditions and add the corresponding summary of analyses and results as they apply to the Niku hypothesis on a point by point basis? All of this has no doubt been detailed out at one time or another, but it would be great to see in compiled form. Thanks, TOM MM >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Original Post of Essential Conditions Follows Here's a brief outline of the minimum essential elements of the test: 1). Define the uncertainty area containing AE's actual position at the time she executed the plan. 2). State, and justify, the estimated fuel AE had at the time she executed the plan. 3). Define the objective of the plan, i.e., to fly to a specific preselected island, or to fly to a general target area and then search for a suitable island. If the latter case, specify the center and radius of the target area, how much time is allocated for searching the area, the area search rate, fuel consumption during the search, and allocated fuel reserve. 3). Define the flight plan, including course, speed, altitude, and fuel consumption for each leg of the plan. Include an explanation of how FN would decide which initial course to fly, given the uncertainty of his starting position at the time the plan was executed, and how any error in his estimate of the starting position would impact the outcome of the plan. 4). Explain in precise, step-by-step detail how FN would navigate along the way. Describe the minimum acceptable navigation accuracy that would ensure success of the plan, and explain in detail how FN would achieve that accuracy. 5.) Derive and present the overall probability of success of the plan, and explain the logical basis on which AE would decide that the plan was a feasible alternative to proceeding to the Phoenix Islands. I propose that, instead of haggling over who said what about what AE may have said was her alternative plan, that the proponents of the Gilberts hypothesis perform the test outlined above and submit their results to the forum. Any takers? LTM, who thinks feasibility proofs are nifty. Bob Brandenburg #2268 ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 10:04:36 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: Two-tone heels > appears lighter because the mould release agent has not > yet worn off. Angus, the mold release is something I hadn't thought of but I did wonder if maybe there was something temporary on the heel -- as if she might have stepped in something. (Please no one speculate ) Also I remembered having wedge shape heels put on my shoes as a kid because my ankles turned in. They worked too. **************************************************************************** From Ric It's not temporary. The light inside edge and dark outside edge are apparent in photos taken months apart. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 10:06:28 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Search justifiaction >The first step in arguing for a search in any given place must be a >logical demonstration that the aircraft could actually have reached that >place > >From Bob Brandenburg in San Diego Like the 'deep' end off the outer edge of the reef flat, based upon the 'good guesses' (not hypotheses) displayed on the TIGHAR website ? Don Neumann Lehigh Valley, PA ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 10:12:10 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Re: Captured by the Japanese >From Ric >Okay, so now that's two pre-war incidents in which American flights >entered Japanese airspace without permission and no one was "held >captive." Neither of which occurred in the Japanese Mandated Island Groups, though both incidents do demonstrate that the Japanese were quite 'sensative' (very early on) regarding overflights of their territory, which reached a climax with their downright 'rude' reception for the Doolittle raiders in 1942 ! Don Neumann Lehigh Valley, PA **************************************************************************** From Ric The historical record shows that they had less to hide in the Mandates than anywhere else and I don't know that they were any more sensitive than any government to unauthorized entry into their airspace. Are you now arguing for capture by the Japanese or are you just being argumentative? ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 10:23:41 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Fuel issues >If anyone will simply take the time to run out a fuel schedule even >just using Kelly Johnson's telegram info they will quickly see that for >AE to have flown up to Truk and across they would run out of fuel in the >Marshalls > >From Alan Caldwell in Austin, TX Plus the _fact_ remains, _any_ overflight of the Japanese Mandated Islands, given the well documented takeoff time from Lae, would have occurred _after_ dark ! >Don't take my or anyone else's word just run the fuel from Lae to >Howland and tell me how to come up with significantly more than 150 >gallons of fuel. Then tell me how to stretch that fuel to Mili Atoll. >Anyone? With all due respect for the many expert/professional _opinions_ regarding the amount of fuel consumed during the course of the Lae to Howland flight, or the amount of fuel remaining in 'reserve' at the time of AE's _last_ received/recorded radio transmission, we must keep in mind that there exists _no_ truly accurate record of the exact manner in which AE managed her fuel consumption, _during_ that leg of the flight & only a very ambiguous reference (about an hour _before_ her _last_ transmission) by AE concerning her fuel reserve: 'gas running low', or as some still insist: 'half-hour left'. None of AE's received/recorded radio transmissions provide any details as to the _number_ of altitude or airspeed changes she made during that flight, no information about weather conditions, (only some brief pre-dawn references to 'cloudy/overcast') no details about wind direction or velocity, all of which would materially affect any attempt to estimate or reconstruct the _actual_ fuel consumption during the flight or the remaining fuel reserve at the time of her last radio transmission. Naturally, any such reconstructions or estimates also require reasonably accurate knowledge of just how far _off_ (if at all) her plotted course AE was in her approach to Howland Island & just which direction she had _actually_ flown on the LOP & in which directional 'sequence' she turned, at the time of her last radio transmission. Even the most authoritative reconstructions & estimates of fuel consumption & fuel reserve are _still_ only based on certain basic _assumptions_ which, however reasonable & logical they may appear, are still _assumptions_ which _may_ be proven wrong, at some future time. Don Neumann Lehigh Valley, PA **************************************************************************** From Ric I agree. In order for Earhart to have run out of gas at 08:43 that morning (as Long maintains) or for her to have reached the Marshall Islands (as the Japanese Capture folks maintain) something remarkable must have happened for which there is no evidence. We don't know what happened so we don't know that something remarkable did not happen. The same logic applies to the Alien Abduction Theory. There is a roughly 160,000 square mile general area in which the flight could have come down without the intervention of remarkable and unknown influences. Within that area is one place where there are abundant indications that the flight may have arrived there. Seems like the best place to keep looking for conclusive proof. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 10:40:57 EST From: Randy Jacobson Subject: Re: Carol Linn Dow Theory The Intertropic Convergent Zone was located at 5* North, nearly 240 nm north of where AE and Howland Island were. It is very unlikely that she encountered the ITCZ and related weather conditions. There were no planes in the Gilbert/Ellice Islands during 1937, so what makes you think there was avgas there? **************************************************************************** From Ric Randy, just about everything in Carol's posting is factually incorrect. The reason this forum has been so successful (now nearly 800 subscribers) is because we have maintained a (fairly) high level of intelligent discourse about the Earhart disappearance. There is always some turnover but since I started posting Carol's messages and allowing various Japanese Capture ramblings, we've had a significant increase in the number of people leaving the forum. The message is clear. I need to do a better job keeping the forum on topic and on track. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 10:57:57 EST From: Dave Bush Subject: Survey Ric - in a recent post you mentioned that a survey was conducted (you didn't make it clear to me whether by the Brits or the US) to determine a location for the Coast Guard station on Niku/Gardner. You further mentioned that you don't know when the survey was conducted or what ship was involved. This brings up a point to my mind - or rather two points: 1) Photo of the wreck on "an" island - ship name and date unknown 2) Survey of Niku/Gardner - ship name and date unknown Well, we have two unknowns that occurred. This doesn't mean that there is a connection between these two events, but it certainly seems probable. Lets assume that the "government" ship that was mentioned by some of the natives, came to do a survey, was shown the remains of an airplane. It is photographed and loaded onto the "government ship". This solves a couple of problems. 1) Where is the wreckage of AE's airplane if it isn't highly visible on the island or off the reef? If it was completely removed (except for the missing engine), then there is NOTHING to recover from the island. 2) When and where were the wreck photo taken? Thus we have Bruce's engine found sometime later and moved to another island. If the ship really did remove the wreckage that was seen in the photo, then that is the only major piece of proof left intact more or less in situ. So we need to find out what ship visited the island and when that occurred. Once that is established, the ship logs should provide the final clues as to what occurred (or didn't occur). But that seems to me like the missing piece of the puzzle. So, pull out the guns and let the dogs loose. I opened my mouth and now I have two toned heels from stepping in it. LTM, Dave Bush **************************************************************************** From Ric Interesting theory but there are a couple of problems with it. There are surveys and there are surveys. There is no indication that an actual survey was conducted in 1943. It was almost certainly nothing more than a PBY visit to pick out a spot for the Loran station. After all, the Navy had just done an extensive survey of the island in 1939. The place hadn't changed. No need for another one. The other problem would be removing an airplane, like the one in the Wreck Photo, from the island. It would ba a HUGE engineering job to get several thousand pounds of wreckage off the beach, out over the reef, and onto a ship. The island was inhabited at the time and yet there is not the slightest hint of a story about such an operation taking place either among island residents or the many military personnel who would have been involved. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 10:27:44 EST From: Chris Subject: Re: Carol Linn Dow Theory I have a confession to make. Although Carol Dow's messages are rambling and sometimes incoherent, I do admire her interest and energy! I think with a little guidance from Ric and all of us, maybe we can straighten her out. I must say that although inaccurate, she does seem to stir my imagination of things or possibilities I wouldn't have otherwise thought of. I think that's good. But she also needs to read and comprehend the other responses so she doesn't keep repeating the same argument. She obviously is NOT doing this! Chris #2511 *************************************************************************** From Ric Until such time as she shows evidence of having recovered from her head injury (not the skiing accident - the one that happened when she fell out of her crib) Ms. Dow's messages will not be appearing on the forum. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 10:38:02 EST From: Herman De Wulf Subject: Re: Woody's photo Ric wrote : "Every once in a while, when things are slow, we open the gates and allow some excursions into the Japanese Capture Theory". Ric, Doesn't that remind you of the Monster of Loch Ness ? Being of Scots descent you must be familiar with it. As a rule it appears around August when everybody is on holiday and newspapers have little real news to report... Having read and read and read again about AE and the Japanese connection I think that theory has been proven false over and over again. I see no point in turning it into a Pacific variant of the Monster of Loch Ness. LTM {who gets bored by reports of sightings of the Monster of Loch Ness) *************************************************************************** From Ric The parallels between the two myths are really quite remarkable. I once wrote an article for one of the early editions of the Earhart Project Book entitled "Amelia Earhart and the Loch Ness Monster." Lots of fun. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 10:41:36 EST From: Dick Pingrey Subject: In Response to Ric and Carol I would not have tried to respond to Carol Linn Dow's posting. The effort would have been meaningless. I think most of the pilots in the group who have flown in the Pacific (of which I am one) understand that ditching is never preferable to an alternate plan that is very likely to get you to land. I also think that most of us understand that finding out what really happened to Amelia and Fred is the motive in what we do and not getting credit for TIGHAR. Enough said. Dick Pingery in Selah 908C *************************************************************************** From Ric I didn't really think that you would try to respond. I know that, with your experience, you know when to declare a missed approach and go around. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 10:42:26 EST From: Dick Pingrey Subject: Pangborn-Herndon Airplane I was quite certain some one in this group would know what happened to the airplane. Maybe we could get the splash in the ocean crowd to start an effort to find the Bellanca. Dick Pingrey in Selah 908C ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 11:06:31 EST From: Chris Subject: Re: Leaving the forum? Ric, I'm a little surprised that there are people leaving the forum because of Carol Dow's threads. I was the first to ask what she might be smoking. But to leave the forum because of these infrequent (how do I say this politely?) kooky people seems a little extreme to me. They don't last long, and it adds a little comic relief, for me anyway. Just curious, does one who is leaving notify you and say I'm leaving because of Carol Dow's postings? I think a limited sense of humor is in order here! Besides, you did say it's a little slow right now. (remember the 19 year old guy who was a "writer" and couldn't spell and said he made more money than the rest of us? Hilarious!). Chris #2511 *************************************************************************** From Ric It's actually pretty interesting to track the ebb and flow of forum subscribership. Predictably, we get a rash of new sign-ups in the wake of media events that bring new visitors to the TIGHAR website. I can usually tell by the screen-name of new subscribers whether they are likely to stay or will soon leave. (Somebody needs to do a masters thesis on the psychology of screen-name selection.) Two things tend to prompt an exodus of lurkers: - a sudden big increase in message volume. - a prolonged (one week or so) deterioration in the intellectual quality of the postings. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 11:39:22 EST From: Lee Boyle Millville, DE Subject: Re: Survey Question - Who made the Survey to determine where the Coast Guard Loran Station would be located on Gardner Island was requested by Dave Bush. In a copy of the U. S. Coast Guard report of the building of the Phoenix Loran Chain which I have sent you several times on page 89 it spells out - GARDNER ISLAND SURVEYED A survey of Gardner Island, which was about 200 miles west of Canton Island, was made in June (1944), while the landings were being made at Baker Island. Coast Guard plane PBY-5 (Catalina) piloted by Lt. Comdr. Clement Vaughn, USCG, left Canton Island on 8 June, with the survey party, including Lt. Comdr. John F. Martin, USCGR, at that time in charge of Pacific construction; Lt. George L. Kelly, Jr., USCG, commanding officer of Construction Detachment D; and Lt. John H. McGuire, USCGR, who was to build the station there. This island was a British possession under a Resident Administrator residing at Canton Island. It was approximately four miles long and one mile wide, and was to be the site of the master station. A picturesque lagoon was enclosed by the island, with its opening on the south side. A day and a half was spent in examining the station site and in making notes on the condition of the reef, the surf and the amount of clearing to be done. This will clarify that the US made survey for the location of the U. S. Coast Guard Loran Station. **************************************************************************** From Ric Thanks. That confirms my suspicion. We actually have a photo taken during that visit by Jack Shea, the Armorer aboard the Coast Guard PBY. It's a great photo. Jack crawled out onto the port wing and took a picture of the "survey party" embarking from the port-side blister into a canoe manned by villagers. The British DO from Canton is distinguishable by his pith helmet. Jack also gave us copies of his logbook showing all the flights that PBY CG189 made while it was based at Canton. That first trip was flown on June 5, 1944. There were 10 people total aboard the airplane and the flight down from Canton took 2.8 hours. They stayed overnight and returned to Canton the next day, again with 10 people aboard, in 2.5 hours. Jack tells a funny story about that trip. He says that the British District Officer had cautioned the Yanks that the local people were very proud to be subjects of the King and that it would be important for him to assure them that they could freely cooperate with the Americans. When the PBY landed in the lagoon a canoe quickly put out from the village shore but as it approached the DO was somewhat nonplussed to see that the villagers had unfurled the Stars & Stripes (which they must have obtained during the USS Bushnell survey in 1939). Anyway, whatever "survey" was done to select a site for the Loran station rather quickly accomplished. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 11:43:53 EST From: G. Michael Harris Subject: Re: Dow Theory The e-mail below was sent to me this evening and I am very discouraged to see that Woody has chosen the words he has. I would be happy to talk to anyone who would like to discuss the truth about our week in the Marshall Islands. Woody, you wrote "I refrain from posting on the forum about my week on Taroa with his group because Mr. Harris is so suit happy (litigious)." Heed your own words.....Woody, was aloud to ride on my boat out to Maloalap with my expedition because He had told me that he had a great friendship with the Islanders.....this sad to say was not the case. I will be more than glad to discuss Mr.Woody with anyone that wants to call. You only get sued when you are full of prunes! G.Michael Harris President Out of the Abyss, Inc. **************************************************************************** From Ric Well guys, the TIGHAR Earhart Forum is not the Jerry Springer Show so you'll have to fight it out someplace else. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 11:48:37 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Captured by the Japanese >The historical record shows that they had less to hide in the >Mandates than anywhere else and I don't know that they were any more >sensitive than any government to unauthorized entry into their airspace. >Are you now arguing for capture by the Japanese or are you just being >argumentative? The historical record also _clearly_ shows that the Japanese prohibited _any_ unauthorized entry into their mandated territories, whatever the occasion for such tresspassing might have been, from the 1930s on to the start of WWII. Any such travel in the mandates was by 'invitation only' & the Japanese were very selective in approving any such visitors & kept quite close tabs on them during such visits. I agree, such prohibition was _not_ occasioned by the fact that the Japanese had any _overt_ military facilities to 'hide', on the contrary, such a security/secrecy 'cloak' over these islands was occasioned more by the fact that the Japanese did _not_ have any such military 'fortifications' in place or under construction until 1938-41, rather they were extremely suspicious of any American 'designs' for a future 'take-over' of these islands in the event of hostilities breaking out in the Pacific, between the two nations, because of the strong opposition by FDR to the Japanese Army's blatant Asian adventures & therefore should the Americans become fully aware of the fact that these isands were _not_ being strongly fortified, would only make them _more_ attractive & easy targets for take-over & use as advanced American bases in the event war should breakout in the Pacific. Actually, the Japanese suspicions were well founded, as revised American battle plans (Battle Plan Orange) for the Pacific, from the 1930s on, show that the early capture & use of these islands was to play a significant role in any American attempt to thwart Japanese efforts to expand their power base throughout the Pacific Rim & also as a buffer against any cut-off of allied supply routes to Australia & New Zealand in the event of war. How does all this affect the AE/FN flight from Lae to Howland ? It doesn't affect it at all, other than to provide some excellent reasons for the flight to scrupulously _avoid_ any encroachment upon any of the Japanese mandated territories, as given the extent of 'cooperation' AE/FN received from the US government, (in particular the US Navy) AE was no doubt made well aware of the fact that her flight into any of these Japanese administered territories would be unwelcomed at best & possibly met with hostility at worst! As for your questions regarding my views on the Japanese 'capture' theories, even if the Japanese _had_ captured/rescued AE/FN, they certainly had far more to gain by promptly returning them to the US authorities than attempting to 'spirit' them away in some obscure effort to avoid any perceived, overt/covert scheme to 'expose' their ill-fortified islands to any unwelcome American scrutiny. As for being argumentative, I don't see the recitation of simple facts as being in any way argumentative, but again, as in the example of beauty, I suppose it's all in the eye (or mind) of the beholder! Don Neumann ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 12:15:45 EST From: Ric Subject: TIGHAR Tracks on CD For some time now, back issues of TIGHAR Tracks have been available, five years at a time, as spiral bound printed compilations. Of course, there were compromises. The color covers had to rendered in black and white and many of the graphics didn't come through as cleanly as in the original. Now, after months of work, the first five years of TIGHAR Tracks have been "re-mastered" and are now available as PDF files on CD-ROM. Not only is the color there, but the graphics and photos are as good (and in some cases better) than in the originals, and most importantly, the PDF format means that the files are searchable. Once our current stock of printed compilations is exhausted we don't plan to produce any more. The CD is a far superior medium for preserving and accessing the history of the TIGHAR organization. The price is $50. The next CD will cover TIGHAR Tracks Volumes 6 through 10 (1990 - 1994). Reproduced below is the introductory page on the CD that is now ready to ship. TIGHAR TRACKS Volumes 1 through 5 (1985 - 1989) This CD represents TIGHAR's first struggles to define itself as an organization, and shows the primary projects which are still our daily business taking shape. Every effort has been made to preserve the look and feel of the original issues, although some of the graphics had to be redone resulting in much more attractive presentations. Volume 1 Number 1 was typed on an electric "memory" typewriter (I seem to recall it had something like a 60 character memory), then pasted up using rub-on letters and photocopied graphics. A local copy center ran it off and folded it. Our records show it was mailed to a whopping 82 people. With a slight increase in mailing volume, that's the way we did it for a year and a half. A brief flirtation with a card-stock cover (Volume 2 #3 and Volume 3 #1) was an improvement, but we were still letter rubbing and tracing and photocopying. Finally a board member took pity on us and had his staff design and set up a real magazine (Volume 3 #2 through Volume 4 #2). It was so beautiful... and so expensive to print. We just couldn't afford it; it took us years to pay off that printer. But with the first donations for the Earhart Project we bought our very first computer and brought production of the newsletter home. It was a Mac II, with a 40MB hard drive and 4 MB of RAM -- plenty in those days. And a laser printer! a rarity for a small office then. Starting with Volume 5 #1, while still fiddling with traced and hand-drawn graphics (remember, we are historians, not artists!), the look and feel of TIGHAR Tracks began to come together with our own style. Always a work in progress, TIGHAR Tracks continues to evolve. These first few years contain the seeds of our current work. We hope you enjoy this piece of TIGHAR's history. We enjoyed putting it together! ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 12:17:22 EST From: Dick Pingrey Subject: Fuel Issues To Don Neuman, Ric and Alan, Yes, we have been through all this before. It just seems to me that unless there is some evidence that "something remarkable" happened, and I have seen no such evidence, then we must go on what reasonably factual evidence exists. Kelly Johnson's fuel management calculations and recomendations exist. The time at which Amelia arrived in the vicinity of Howland exists from her, "We must be on you but can not see you" message is known. The fact that Amelia flew the airplane two-thirds of the way around the world apparently using reasonably good fuel management is known. The fact that it would be foolish to not use good fuel management by any rational pilot is known. Given all this information it seems only reasonable to me that we base our hypothesis on what would we could expect her to do unless there is evidence to point in some other direction. I don't recall hearing any EVIDENCE to support the "something remarkable" having happened concept. Dick Pingrey in Selah 908C ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 12:25:50 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Where to search >There is a roughly 160,000 square mile general area in which the >flight could have come down without the intervention of remarkable and >unknown influences. > >Within that area is one place where there are abundant indications that >the flight may have arrived there. Seems like the best place to keep >looking for conclusive proof'... > >LTM, >Ric Ric, Like the ocean bottom around the most likely point the Electra could have touched-down, upon landing on the reef-flat, at Gardner/Nikumaroro Island? Don Neumann **************************************************************************** From Ric I think it's important to make a distinction between places where evidence, clues, whatever-you-want-to-call-them, have been found and places where we think stuff MIGHT be found. The Seven Site and the village fall into the first category. The deep water off the reef is in the second. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 12:27:05 EST From: Bob Brandenburg Subject: Re: Search justifiaction For Don Neumann > From Don Neumann > > ...'The first step in arguing for a search in any given place must be a > logical demonstration that the aircraft could actually have reached that > place'... > > >From Bob Brandenburg in San Diego > ***************************************** > Like the 'deep' end off the outer edge of the reef flat, based upon the > 'good guesses' (not hypotheses) displayed on the TIGHAR website ? > > Don Neumann Note that the first step is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for justifying a search. There then follow additional conditions that must be satisfied, such as optimal allocation of finite resources subject to maximizing the likelihood of overall project mission success, while minimizing opportunity costs. Ric, Tom King, and others have argued persuasively that there are avenues of investigation that would make better use of project resources than an underwater search. I think they have it right. LTM, Bob #2286 ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 13:56:36 EST From: Bob Brandenburg Subject: Re: Search Justification For Tom MM: When you get the chance, > could you please take the Essential Conditions and add the corresponding > summary of analyses and results as they apply to the Niku hypothesis on a > point by point basis? All of this has no doubt been detailed out at one > time or another, but it would be great to see in compiled form. > > Thanks, > TOM MM The information you seek is available on the TIGHAR web site, and in various references cited there. Compilation is left as an exercise for the interested reader. LTM, Bob **************************************************************************** From Ric It's a dirty job but..... <<1). Define the uncertainty area containing AE's actual position at the time she executed the plan.>> ("The plan", in this case, being the decision to run southeastward on the LOP.) A swath, say, 30 miles wide representing the advanced 337/157 LOP extending from a point 10 miles southeast of Baker to, say, 100 miles southeast of Baker. <<2). State, and justify, the estimated fuel AE had at the time she executed the plan.>> If we say that she executed the plan at 08:00 local time (19:30 Z) when it became apparent that DFing was not going to work, the airplane should have had at least 4 hours of fuel remaining. This figure assumes that Earhart followed, without significant modification, the fuel management profiles recommended by Kelly Johnson for the Oakland/Honlulu flight and that those recommendations were, in fact, quite conservative. <<3). Define the objective of the plan, i.e., to fly to a specific preselected island, or to fly to a general target area and then search for a suitable island. If the latter case, specify the center and radius of the target area, how much time is allocated for searching the area, the area search rate, fuel consumption during the search, and allocated fuel reserve.>> The objective of the plan was to fly along a line that should bring the aircraft within visual range of any one of three islands - Howand, Baker, or Gardner. <<3). Define the flight plan, including course, speed, altitude, and fuel consumption for each leg of the plan. Include an explanation of how FN woulddecide which initial course to fly, given the uncertainty of his starting position at the time the plan was executed, and how any error in his estimateof the starting position would impact the outcome of the plan.>> Proceed on a true course of 157 degrees at an altitude of 1,000 feet and an airspeed of about 110 mph burning roughly 42 gph and watch for land.Noonan's decision to fly that course was based upon his knowledge that the 337/157 LOP advanced through Howland also fell within visual range of Baker and Gardner, and his expectation that he could fly that line with sufficient precision to stand an excellent chance of seeing one of the three islands. <<4). Explain in precise, step-by-step detail how FN would navigate along the way. Describe the minimum acceptable navigation accuracy that would ensure success of the plan, and explain in detail how FN would achieve that accuracy.>> The accuracy of the advanced LOP and of the flight along it after turning southeastward woud depend largely upon Noonan's ability to assess groundspeed and wind drift, both of which are a function of wind speed and direction which he should have been able to assess by using the drift meter aboard the aircraft. That's what it was there for. At 1,000 feet, Gardner's large bright turqoise lagoon should have been visible from 20 miles out. Accuracy within 15 miles either side of the LOP through Howland (the 30 mile swath described above) should have been adequate. <<5.) Derive and present the overall probability of success of the plan, and explain the logical basis on which AE would decide that the plan was a feasible alternative to proceeding to the Phoenix Islands.>> Of course, proceeding to the Phoenix Islands is what we're talking about. Probability of success? It was literally the textbook procedure for the situation they found themselves in and, provided there had been no major miscalculation in the navigation up to that point, virtually assurred landfall at one of the three islands before the fuel ran out. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 14:14:54 EST From: Barry Limoges stuck in Stanton, Nebraska Subject: Proposed Convention While viewing all the interesting message postings, I realize that many of our forumites are interested in meeting each other (some with boxing gloves). Lately, several postings mentioned trying to form local chapters. Has TIGHAR ever organized a national convention. I would think with advanced notice and lots of planning we could put together some great debates, social events (of course), and discussions. Locations such as Purdue University or San Diego (I'll vote for that being in Nebraska) would influence members to come to the convention. We could all meet the famous Gillespie and his crew in person along with many of the regular contributors to the forum. I can just visualize us sitting on the edge of our chairs while attending a talk as Ric discusses and shows the artifacts of the island. LTM, Barry #2504 **************************************************************************** From Ric We held a "TIGHAR Gathering" in Washington, DC in '93 or '94, something like that. We had a really outstanding series of events lined up - special tours of the NASM Garber Facility, the NTSB laboratory, the National Archives, the Library of Congress, etc. We also did dog and pony shows about the Earhart expeditions (we had done two at that time) and showed off the artifacts we had found. The turn out was very disappointing (like, a couple dozen people) and we lost our.....shirt. National conventions got added to our list of never-agains right along with having a booth at airshows. Of course, that was back in the days before websites and email forums. Maybe things would different now but I tend to doubt it. Travel is a bigger pain in the butt now than it was then. Still, I am but the servant of the people. If the interest is there and we can find a way to make it make sense financially, I'm all for it. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 14:18:54 EST From: Mark Subject: Re: Leaving the forum? I seem to recall another female participant in the forum that appeared a year ago or so that finally got bounced for being extremely prolific with postings and extremely off in the ozone somewhere. Any relation to our current Carol Dow ?? Mark 1214 *************************************************************************** From Ric I suspect that both Janet and Carol were, in fact, the ghost of Amelia having some fun with us. Who ya gonna call? ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 15:05:19 EST From: Red Glove Subject: Re: Leaving the forum? <> So how long did you think I would be here? Red Glove. ************************************************************************ From Ric I figured you'd probably stick around longer than CueTpie. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 15:17:04 EST From: Dennis McGee Subject: Local chapters etc. I've been around TIGHAR long enough (10-12 years) to get deja vu all over again when talk turns to conventions and local chapters. Ric and Pat have tried just about everything and the harsh reality is that it costs money and time to do all of that stuff. Ric has been invited (and probably disinvited, too) to several events to speak about the AE mystery, but my understanding is that most of those invitations were initiated by the sponsors, not TIGHAR. If the membership believes it would like greater exposure for the organization, perhaps a volunteer coordinator should step forward to book this stuff for Ric under Ric's direction/approval. It could operate along the lines of a speaker's bureau except that there would be only one client -- TIGHAR. The concept is simple but the execution is exhausting. What happens is that the volunteer scours the convention circuit for appropriate audiences, pitches the TIGHAR story to the coordinators, and wrangles an expenses-paid invitation (plus an honorarium?) for Ric to present TIGHAR's theories on the issue. Ric could notify TIGHARs via the earhartforum regarding his next appearance and those in the area would be able to drop in or sneak in, whatever would be appropriate. The downside to this is obvious -- it is a lot of work for everyone. The coordinator really has to hustle to get prime audiences and if done even on a monthly basis, it would take up at least 2-3 days of Ric's time for travel etc. All of this assumes the volunteer is a self-starter, can hustle events, and enjoys the confidence of TIGHAR, its board of directors, and Mr. Gillespie. Everyone interested in volunteering, take one step forward. LTM, a former hustler herself Dennis O. McGee #0149EC *************************************************************************** From Ric I have learned from long experience that personal appearances take many hours of preparation if they're going to be any good and they do not, as a rule, bring in memberships or contributions. For several years now my speaker's fee has been $3,500 plus expenses, whether it's a 20 minute breakfast briefing or a two hour evening lecture. Song and dance numbers are extra. I get, on average, one or two gigs per year. I do local school groups for free as time permits. ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 07:58:53 EST From: Ross Devitt Subject: Re: Leaving the forum? Are the people "leaving the forum" actually unsubscribing? or just not posting for a while as they read and chuckle? As a non-financial member (yes, I'm still digging my way out of the debt I got in when I was injured) I try not to post unless: * I've got something more or less constructive to add. * I've got what I believe to be a reasonable question. * I'm trying to help give someone a "go" (as Chris is trying to help Carol) * I can't help it as the post is too funny, controversial or lunatic to resist. Obviously, I don't always manage to stick to the guidelines. I don't know what eventually happened to Janet, but we do have others who were skating on thin ice as far as forum guidelines go, who are now occasional "constructive" if still controversial posters. You'll remember who I mean. Th' WOMBAT (BTW, Ric, I only have another $6000 to find before I am free to become financial. With the Aussies dollar as it is, everything "Tighar" doubles in cost for us.) **************************************************************************** From Ric When I say "leaving the forum" I mean unsubscribing (although most can't figure out how to do it themselves and ask me to take them off). As of today have 798 subscribers and I don't have to tell you how many regularly submit messages for posting (maybe a couple dozen?). So the vast, vast majority are lurkers. Whether they subscribe to the forum for education, entertainment, penance for some sin we can only imagine, or just to fill up their email in-box - we'll never know. ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 08:01:41 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: Fuel issues > Even the most authoritative reconstructions & estimates of fuel > consumption & fuel reserve are _still_ only based on certain basic > _assumptions_ which, however reasonable & logical they may appear, are > still _assumptions_ which _may_ be proven wrong, at some future time. > > Don Neumann Don, you couldn't be more correct. That fact alone considerably damages Long's theory wherein he miraculously comes up with "facts" unknown to anyone else. In any of my posts on fuel used or remaining I'm guessing what the MOST fuel remaining might be. Not the least or anything in between. I'm also assuming that the altitude and power setting schedule Johnson proposed would have been the most efficient plan. I can't think of a reason he would have suggested or that AE would have flown a plan that would have used significantly more fuel than was nescessary. As to the latter she certainly could have been forced by weather to do so but again that just means less fuel not more. I think estimates of around 150 gallons is clearly possible although my own estimate is about 135 gallons. Again those guesses are what is thought to be the most she could have had. Lord only knows what the real amount was. I have trouble believing anything drastic happened to her fuel or her flight plan. There is no known evidence of that. Also I think plain common sense (if used < G>) would tell us that if there was such a critical fuel reserve heading into Howland they would have known that long before. Nauru or most any Gilbert would have been a good choice rather than running out of gas somewhere in the Pacific. Alan #2329 ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 08:03:32 EST From: Woody Subject: Re: Leaving the forum? Ric, I can't agree with you on why people leave the forum. I believe it's because as media events occur and the sheer volume of postings increases as short-timers join the forum you can get an unmanageable number of postings, especially after a few days away from your trusty keyboard. It can be discouraging. I have finally learned how to put things on vacation when I'm away so I dont get intimidated anymore when it takes an hour to recieve 431 messages( it happen April-May of 2001)- I just delete them and wait for more! Remember guys and girls, no hypothesis should be discarded until the right one is proven with hard evidence, something with serial numbers on it. Some of you may not believe it, I dont think the Japanese CAPTURED her. Although Ric and I dont agree on Amelias fate-for some reason he keeps posting my stuff- Thanks! Woody ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 08:05:22 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: Search Justification > From Ric > > It's a dirty job but..... That's great, Ric. Now would someone do the same for the Marshalls and for the Gilberts? Alan #2329 ************************************************************************ From Ric Maybe there's a reason no one has tried. ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 08:07:12 EST From: Kurt Subject: Sled Dog thread You need to be careful with the sled dog thread. You know what they say about sled dogs don't you? "If you ain't the lead dog, your view never changes!" Kurt :) ROTFLMAO ************************************************************************** From Ric The lead dog will refrain from commenting. ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 08:09:45 EST From: Brandon Subject: Smoking What is the matter with smoking? I am sure that plenty of others on the forum smoke. I know that I do, and want to quit. Marlboros and Lucky Strikes are okay, I stay away from that "other" stuff though, I am not to sure about some of the others on the fourm! 73 Brandon KB3GPA **************************************************************************** From Ric Did somebody say something about smoking? I must have missed it. But if you have to ask, "What is the matter with smoking?" I don't think there is anything we can do for you. ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 08:11:53 EST From: Chris Subject: TIGHAR convention? Why not ask Tom King? He's been wandering around the countryside with speaking engagements and plugging his book. Who better to ask? Then we could gauge the turnout he's been getting to see how much interest there is out there? Chris #2511 ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 08:24:36 EST From: Don in Branson Subject: New technology Ric, here's part of a story I found a couple of years ago on the Net. It's about searching for Sir Frances Drake's treasure. In the section of the story that I'm sending you, they mention this NERS machine that seems to be capable of finding things on earth that don't normally belong there......hope you find it as interesting as I did. Wouldn't this be fun to try over a particular island? Sorry if this isn't sent properly, I didn't want to type the whole thing. Don *************************************************************************** From Ric Quoting from the file you attached: "Basically NERS (Natural Earth Rejection Syndrome) is a-spin-off of the medical field. As most people are aware, many times a surgically transplanted organ will be rejected by the patient's body. When this happens, death may occur. The same observation of energies occurs in the earth as well. A cache is a deliberate non-compatible implant in the earth by people. If rare metals are cached in the earth nature will try to reject it if the balance is not compatible. This natural energy activity is the study of NERS." We'll certainly consider this new technology carefully. Meanwhile, you might be interested in a bridge we have for sale in metropolitan New York. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 10:58:50 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Re: Essential Questions >From Ric > >...'It's a dirty job but..... > ><<5.) Derive and present the overall probability of success of the >plan, and explain the logical basis on which AE would decide that the >plan was a feasible alternative to proceeding to the Phoenix Islands.>> > >Of course, proceeding to the Phoenix Islands is what we're talking >about. Probability of success? It was literally the textbook >procedure for the situation they found themselves in and, provided there >had been no major miscalculation in the navigation up to that point, >virtually assurred landfall at one of the three islands before the fuel >ran out The only element still missing from this very 'feasible' explanation for the 'probable success' of the flight actually reaching the Gardner/Nikumaroro alternate landfall site, is the _still_ unanswered question... How did AE/FN plan to arrange for their _rescue_ from their island paradise? Only _one_ of AE's radio transmissions suggests that she ever received _any_ of the Itasca's radio transmissions & even on the basis of that _one_ transmission (an effort by Itasca to obtain a bearing for/on AE & the Electra, not any attempt to exchange any other meaningful information) AE was unable to establish _any_ further two-way communication with Itasca. Based upon that _one_ (very brief) transmission, AE had no way of determining whether or not the Itasca had been able to receive _any/all_ of her previous transmissions which, all things considered, really wouldn't have mattered very much anyway, because AE _never_ gave Itasca any clue as to their intentions, regarding their seeking any alternate landfall, should they fail in their efforts to locate Howland Island. Which would seem (to me anyway) to reflect that up until AE's _last_ received radio transmission, our daring duo Had _not_ made any decision about flying anywhere else, otherwise, why on earth (my own opinion) would they not have so informed Itasca of such intentions ? While we must allow, after making the decision to fly SE to the Phoenix Chain, the 'possibility' that AE _did_ continue to transmit radio signals during the flight down the LOP to the Phoenix Chain, the _fact_ remains, the Itasca received no further radio transmissions from the flight after that last (8:43) transmission & following Cmdr Thompson's determination that the flight _must_ have terminated, he proceeded to steam to the NW, not to the SE, in search of what he probably presumed was the 'ditched' Electra. Assuming that AE/FN were _still_ in possession of all their reasoning faculties at that point & were not completely overwhelmed by the prospect of ditching the Electra in the ocean, & given the fact that AE had not previously been able to establish any two-way communication with Itasca, nor any record that they ever informed Itasca of their intention to fly SE to the Phoenix Chain in search of an alternate landfall, was the choice of flying to the Phoenix Islands the _most_ obvious, logical & reasonable alternative? Now I'm not trying to be _argumentative_ about this matter, I'm simply trying to provide a view of (what I suggest is) at least the _second_ most imperative consideration to be made in the decision between any alternate landfall sites &/or ditching at sea... the rather critical question of _ultimate_ survival &/or location & rescue, by the _only_ source of such rescue (known at that time) by AE/FN. There appears to be _no_ question that AE/FN had the _capability_ of flying to the Phoenix Chain (providing all the many 'assumptions' & 'speculations' about their fuel consumption & fuel reserve are accurate representations of the 'real-time' situation that AE rather ambiguously described in her radio transmission), my only reservation is... given the lack of _two_ most critical elements (no two-way radio communication with & no explanation of diverting the flight to an alternate landfall, to their only _known_ source of search & rescue) would AE/FN have decided to 'tough-it-out' & risk facing the very real possibility that no one knew where they were & by the time such rescuers figured out where they were, they could well expire on an uninhabited, equitorial island, with questionable (if any) fresh water sources, even though they _might_ be able to survive an initial landing, as opposed to any open ocean ditching? As I've often stated, _none_ of the available choices were all that acceptable & _all_ had clear, serious risks for any ultimate survival, certainly not the kind of decisions any of us would ever be adequately prepared to make, given the same or similar circumstances. Don Neumann **************************************************************************** From Ric I will attempt, yet again, to somehow get it across to you that the decision to fly SE down the advanced LOP was NOT - I say again NOT - a decision to abandon Howland as a destination and proceed to an alternate. It was, instead, the ONLY way to search for Howland and still stand a chance of putting down on land if the search failed. Thompson's decision to search to the NW of Howland was based upon his assumption that the plane had been forced to ditch due to fuel exhaustion. That assumption had, in turn, been based upon O'Hare's alomst certainly erroneous claim that Earhart had said she only had a 1/2 hour of gas left at 07:42. Thompson had already decided to go searching for the ditched plane and had recalled the men from the island BEFORE the 08:43 message was received. Later that evening, when senior Naval aviators in Hawaii reviewed what Earhart had reportedly said, they concluded that she had probably flown southeastward on the LOP. The Colorado's search was based upon that hypothesis. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 11:12:34 EST From: Tom MM Subject: Search Justification I appreciate your responses to the Niku Essential Conditions, which gives those of us on the forum some idea of appropriate level of detail which would need to be provided for any proposed hypothesis - Gilberts, other Phoenix, or whatever. This is good to know, since the Conditions themselves provided no hint of the level of detail considered to be adequate. Now that TIGHAR has set the bar, maybe others will try to jump their own hypotheses over it. Obviously, I would dispute some of the statements, but that was not the point. One thing though - I thought that it was determined that the Electra did not have adequate instrumentation for determining drift. I think I have a forum response somewhere confirming that. This could have significant navigational implications - has something new come to light? TOM MM **************************************************************************** From Ric Did I just hear the click of a trap being set? The level of detail is, of course, limited by the rather severe lack of detail available about the conditions that existed. Estimates such as the 30 mile LOP swath and the 42 gph fuel consumption are merely educated guesses that can be shown to be within demonstrated limits. The question of establishing wind speed and direction is an interesting one. Nothing new has come to light. I don't recall that it was "established" that the Electra had inadequate instrumentation to do that. They did have a drift meter and it's fairly apparent that Noonan thought he could determine what the wind was doing. I don't know how you'd go about establishing that he couldn't. ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 11:16:01 EST From: Stuart Allsop, in Santiago, Chile Subject: Re: New technology " ... If rare metals are cached in the earth nature will try to reject it if the balance is not compatible. ..." Now wouldn't that be nice! I guess I was under the apparently misguided impression that rare metals actually CAME from the earth, and had to be dug out of it in the first place! Come to think of it, if this weird and wonderful theory were true, we would all be tripping over raw chunks of gold, silver, platinum and titanium while we walked around, as the good ol' Earth frantically regurgitated and "rejected" these "unnatural" things from the depths, and spit them out on to the surface, under our feet.... Maybe someone should tell the entire mining industry that they can all go home now, since the Earth itself will take care of doing there job from here on in.... **************************************************************************** From Ric I wish I could remember who it was that once said, "No one ever went broke overestimating the gullibility of the public." ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 11:38:38 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Mechanical problems? >The time at which Amelia arrived in the vicinity of Howland exists >from her, "We must be on you but can not see you" message is known. The >fact that Amelia flew the airplane two-thirds of the way around the >world apparently using reasonably good fuel management is known. The >fact that it would be foolish to not use good fuel management by any >rational pilot is known'... >Dick Pingrey in Selah 908C Must agree with Mr. Pingrey, AE _did_ attempt to scrupulously maintain a very 'tight' fuel management regimen throughout the course of the R-T-W flight, however, that said, she also experienced difficulty with a broken fuelmeter shaft after leaving Natal & a jammed manual mixture-control lever between Assab & Karachi, which caused considerably greater fuel consumption, for which she had to compensate. So even though such problems had been 'fixed' &/or defective parts replaced, & there is no 'evidence' of any such fuel system malfunctions on the Lea to Howland flight, 'bad' things _do_ happen & machines do break-down, not necessarily the result of any 'remarkable' occurrence. After all, this was a fuel system that _had_ flown over two-thirds of the way around the world, in all kinds of weather & climate conditions & endured various & sundry 'adjustments', often by some less than first-rate mechanics, & given AE's laconic style of transmitting her radio messages, perhaps she simply thought her 'running low on gas' transmission was adequate to convey her concern about any &/or all of her fuel problems that _might_ have developed during this leg of the flight. Don Neumann **************************************************************************** From Ric Back when I was in the aviation insurance business there was an ongoing debate among underwriters about whether a loss-free account had demonstrated its ability to operate safely or was "overdue" for a big accident. Earhart had flown two-thirds of the way around the world. She had had some mechanical problems and had been scrupulous about getting them fixed (in fact, she had actually returned to Java because a repair had not been done correctly despite pressure to get home by the Fourth of July). Chater's letter says that the airplane departed Lae in good condiiton. We know there was a problem with the radio as she approached Howland and AE certainly wasn't laconic about complaining about it. To interpret "but gas is running low" to mean that there was also an engine or instrumentation problem that severely impacted her fuel reserve seems about as likely as Elgen Long's contention that "speed 140 knots" meant that she had suicidally abandoned her fuel conservation measures to boost her airspeed. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 11:40:36 EST From: David Jeane Subject: Re: Leaving the forum? > Whether they subscribe to the forum for education, entertainment, > penance for some sin we can only imagine, or just to fill up their email > in-box - we'll never know. Isn't it obvious....cheap thrills!! ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 11:45:01 EST From: Dennis McGee Subject: quotes Ric said: "I wish I could remember who it was that once said, 'No one ever went broke overestimating the gullibility of the public.' Pick one: A. P. T. Barnum B. Abraham Lincoln C. Yogi Berra Two of the three are among the most often misattributed quoters. The remaining one is the correct one, I believe. LTM, who's not gone broke yet, either Dennis O. McGee #0149EC ************************************************************************** From Ric Do I know how to launch an off-topic thread or what? Lincoln: You can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time. W.C. Fields: You can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time, and that's enough to make a decent living. ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 12:01:07 EST From: Mark in KY Subject: Re: New technology A quick internet search points out that H.L. Mencken said, "No one ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public." Is that the quote you're looking for? Searching on "overestimate" brings up the related Mencken quote: "The chief value of money lies in the fact that one lives in a world in which it is overestimated." I'll go back to lurking now... :-) - Mark in KY (Not a member - yet - still trying to feed twins...) ************************************************************************ From Ric Thanks Mark. ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 12:02:34 EST From: Patrick Gaston Subject: Captured by the Japanese For Darryl Bollinger Darryl, if the US was still a "significant oil supplier to Japan" in 1937, wouldn't that relationship have been furthered by returning AE and FN (with attendant fanfare) rather than enraging FDR by holding innocent civilians hostage? Are you saying that the US would alter its entire geopolitical strategy over the fate of one stunt flyer? Would we have quit bombing Afghanistan if the Taliban captured Julia Roberts? LTM Pat Gaston (who likes Julia for the AE role in the upcoming movie. Daniel Day-Lewis as FN. Lambrecht & Co. portrayed by Groucho, Harpo and Chico) ========================================================================= Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 14:49:39 EST From: Randy Jacobson Subject: Captured by the...... If the Taliban had captured Martha Stewart instead, the entire Taliban government would have gotten the Congressional Medal of Honor, no doubt! *************************************************************************** From Ric Oh swell. A new thread - People We Wish The Taliban Had Captured. ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 08:14:51 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Phoenix Rising Expedition Just happened to come upon this NAI'A website while web searching, which has some very interesting material about their '2000' Project in the Phoenix Islands in the Republic of Kiribati... 2000 Phoenix Rising Expedition - Preliminary Summary Address:http://www.naia.com.fj/phoenix/phxsum.html Don Neumann **************************************************************************** From Ric Yes, we're very much aware of that trip and were in contact with members of the scientific party before and after expedition. There observations were a help to us in planning the dive work for Niku IIII. ========================================================================= Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 08:48:52 EST From: Tom MM Subject: Re: Essential Questions.. Ric wrote: >Did I just hear the click of a trap being set? The level of detail is, of >course, limited by the rather severe lack of detail available about the >conditions that existed. Estimates such as the 30 mile LOP swath and the 42 >gph fuel consumption are merely educated guesses that can be shown to be >within demonstrated limits. > >The question of establishing wind speed and direction is an interesting one. >Nothing new has come to light. I don't recall that it was "established" that >the Electra had inadequate instrumentation to do that. They did have a drift >meter and it's fairly apparent that Noonan thought he could determine what >the wind was doing. I don't know how you'd go about establishing that he >couldn't. Well, actually I have no quibble with the 30 mile LOP swath (at least in the Howland area), and the 42 GPH fuel consumption - issues lie elswhere. However, these days whenever I sit down at the computer I try to repeat to myself "This is the Earhart NIKU forum. It is not a forum is open to consider the crashed and sank theory, or a run for an alternative landfall other than Niku. It exists to further the Niku hypothesis and to provide a funding source for TIGHAR." There is, however, a lot of fun and interesting information passed around irrespective of the forum focus, which may account for many of the lurkers. So, let's see - why has no one bothered to work up and posted a serious version of an attempt to reach the Gilbert's or other Phoenix Island? Must be that it can't be done, right? On the drift sight - I think I recall that this was discussed and some general assement of the capability was made. How far back are old forum logs available? TOM MM *************************************************************************** From Ric I certainly hope that no one has the impression that there is any effort on this forum to suppress information that might be damaging to the Niku Hypothesis. We try to keep the discussions focused on Niku because that's where we believe the answers can be found but, as you note, we frequently spice up the discusssion by entertaining dissenting viewpoints and even inviting proponents to make their case - as Bob Brandenburg did with his Essential Questions challenge. If no one picks up the gauntlet, so be it. Perhaps you're right that our Legion of Lurkers is here for the condiments rather than the meat, but I prefer to think that they enjoy watching the process of hammering out the truth in the crucible of solid research and intelligent peer review. Is the forum a funding source for TIGHAR? You betcha - but only if what happens here is seen as fair, honest, genuinely productive, and worthy of support. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 10:43:56 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: SE on the LOP >I will attempt, yet again, to somehow get it across to you that the >decision to fly SE down the advanced LOP was NOT - I say again NOT - a decision >to abandon Howland as a destination and proceed to an alternate. It >was, instead, the ONLY way to search for Howland and still stand a >chance of putting down on land if the search failed.... >Ric If flying SE on the LOP was the ONLY way to search for Howland, why was it recorded that AE mentioned 'running North & South'..., or are you still insisting that AE never made such a statement, or that the Itasca radio operator simply added his own editorial comment to the log, about what he _thought_ he heard? >Thompson had already decided to go searching for the ditched >plane and had recalled the men from the island BEFORE the 08:43 >message was received'... >Ric If Thompson had, in fact, based his assumption that AE was already 'down', ONLY upon O'Hare's allegedly having heard AE say: 'Half-hour left', wouldn't the subsequent 8:43 transmission, an hour _after_ the 'running low on gas, half-hour left' message, (with _no_ subsequent mention of the fuel situation) have raised some suspicion as to how the original 'fuel' message should be interpreted, since she obviously was still in the air, still searching for Howland & contemplating a change to her day-time radio frequency in order to _continue_ transmitting & receiving? Or, are we simply saying that Cmdr Thompson was so fixated upon taking a pro-active course of action, or so dull witted, he completely ignored any implications that should have been raised as a result of the 8:43 transmission? Additionally, wasn't the Navy's decision to search the Phoenix Chain as much related to subsequent radio signals that PAA & the Navy had determined originated from that area, rather than any 'clue' they may have perceived to have 'read' into any of the messages received & recorded by the Itasca radio operators? Perhaps my post failed to make my point clearly enough, I don't question the underlying technical/navigational feasibility of the 'flight-to Gardner/Nikumaroro' scenario or that it was not _a_ course to follow, _if_ the _only_ consideration was to find Howland Island &/or an alternate landfall & thus (presumably) avoid ditching at sea. What I do find lacking from that scenario however, is the non-consideration of what I (apparently alone) believe is the _equally_ important issue of just how AE/FN (presuming of course, that AE/FN were still capable of any reasonable/rational analysis of their situation) had any reasonable expectation of ultimate survival & rescue, from an uninhabited, equitorial island, with limited (if any ) fresh water source, especially when they had never established any two-way radio communication with their only _known_ rescue (or anyone else that _we_ know of) source & had never (to our knowledge) informed such rescue source that they were flying 300+ miles to the SE. Obviously, in retrospect, Cmdr Thompson couldn't/didn't figure out that _this_ scenario provided the ONLY way AE could search for Howland Island nor did the Navy place much confidence in their _original_ assessment that the Phoenix Chain was the ONLY place to look for the missing aviators, as they promptly abandoned the search, after a cursory overflight failed to reveal any evidence of the Electra or it's remains, in spite of being 'bugged' by GPP & Paul Mantz to make a more thorough investigation of those islands. (Unless, of course, we tend to lend _any_ credence to the conspiritorial chorous, that the Navy 'really' knew they headed for the Marshalls, which is why they diverted their search to the seas NW of Howland Island!) One of my points of disputation with the scenario TIGHAR has developed, is the fact that it's more vigorous adherents/supporters seem to insist that there is absolutely _no_ other (reasonable/logical) way to explain the disappearance of AE/FN & their Electra & since there is no 'evidence' (by their own measure) to support any other scenario/theory/hypothesis, therefore the people who continue to question or challenge the TIGHAR scenario (for many of the same reasons) are simply uninformed/misinformed at best or too dull witted to understand or accept the so-called, preponderance of 'evidence' in support of the TIGHAR scenario as the ONLY answer/solution to the mystery. However, I do appreciate the fact that you continue to publish posts such as mine, though we obviously have many points of disagreement & approach the problems associated with attempting to solve the mystery of the AE/FN disappearance from differing perspectives. Don Neumann *************************************************************************** From Ric The technique for finding an island using an advanced LOP involves searching in both directions along the line and there is every reason to think that AE and FN did that within the constraints of fuel and logic (hence her comment, w hatever it was, about "north and south"). Because all of the alternative islands were southeast of Howland, the search to the northwest had to be very brief if they were to be sure of having enough fuel to reach land of some kind. Yes, running SE on the LOP is the ONLY way to search for Howland and be reasonably assured of not taking a bath. If you know of another way I'd like to hear about it. The Navy's original decision to search SE along the LOP was not based upon post-loss radio signals and, in fact, was made before the first signals were reported. The Colorado's captain was very clear about that in his report. Later, as the signals began to come in, the decision was made to concentrate the search on the islands of the Phoenix Group because it seemed apparent that the airplane had succeeded in reaching land. Your insistence that the perceived chances of rescue from an uninhabited waterless island would have colored the what-to-do-now decision presumes that Earhart and Noonan were privy to information about the nature of the islands to the southeast that the Colorado searchers certainly did not have. "Well, Amelia, we're obviously not where we thought we were. We have a choice. We can search around where we think Howland should be and hope that we stumble upon it before we run out of gas and have to ditch in the ocean, lose the airplane and almost certainly our lives OR we can run SE along the LOP and stand a good chance of reaching maybe Howland, maybe Baker, maybe Gardner. Howland is the one we want but we know there are Americans on Baker. We don't know anything about Gardner except that it's British. What do you want to do." "Gosh Fred, what if we don't find Howland or Baker and what if there is no one living on Gardner and what if there's no fresh water there. And what if nobody figures out that we did exactly what you're supposed to do in a situation like this. I think we better just set up some kind of search pattern and hope that we find Howland in time." The decision to search the open ocean northwest of Howland was made by the captain of the Lexington after the Colorado's search of the Phoenix Group came up negative. If those who can not recognize the preponderance of evidence that points to Nikumaroro seem dull-witted we can only continue to try to find evidence that is easier for them to understand. :-) LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 10:51:55 EST From: Lawrence Subject: Re: Phoenix Rising Expedition While searching for giant green sea-turtles off the Nikumaroro coast, did John and Michelle hall mention anything about their exploration which might be of use to Tighar? Thanks, Lawrence ************************************************************************** From Ric No. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 10:52:55 EST From: Stijn de Jong Subject: Re: Essential Questions.. >Perhaps you're right that our Legion of Lurkers is here for the condiments >rather than the meat, but I prefer to think that they enjoy watching the >process of hammering out the truth in the crucible of solid research and >intelligent peer review. Exactly. I prefer a good meal any day. The main reason I've been lurking here for the past 2 years is because I find the discussions between all you experts utterly fascinating, yet I'm not nearly knowledgeable enough to actively participate in them. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 10:55:24 EST From: Jim W. Subject: Metal smoking rejects First, this issue with smoking. Should Ric, through the forum, ban smoking? I have wondered why my computer emits smoke at times when I read the forum postings. But I have not thought of the forum as detrimental to my health in spite of the smoke. Actually, quite the opposite. I have learned a tremendous amount about navigation, history and culture in the Pacific region, investigative techniques, archaeology, marine environments, why native or foreign occupation of some islands does not succeed, tons of aviation techniques and history, and on and on. I live in an aviation oriented family and my parents and in-laws grew up with Earhart, Noonan, Manz, Lindbergh and the others. Because of the forum I have been able to have reasonably intelligent and very fascinating conversations with my elders - which has generated much renewed interest on their part. I also have been able to discuss and provide information for other people to use to broaden their perspective about Earhart and her disappearance. Next, I haven't been to confession for more years than the forum has been in existence, and I have been a forumite since the forum was pretty young. If the forum had been available, any good priest would have penitized me to follow it to test my mettle. The good reverend would have been happy to know that I have survived both pats on the back and being smoked, and am still standing and lurking on the forum. Speaking of metal, this thing about the earth rejecting metals that upset the balance. I would bet that most of the forum subscribers over the age of forty have had amalgam fillings in their teeth. As a result of this dental work, if the earth didn't like the imbalance it has created we would be a bunch of rejects. Finally, my apologies. This posting hasn't directly furthered the solution to the Earhart Project. But the forum has been an educational tool that I have often employed, and to that point I hope what I have gained from the forum has been a valuable indirect asset. Hopefully I have been able to i nspire someone else to better understand the Earhart saga, to subscribe to the forum and join TIGHAR. Jim W. **************************************************************************** From Ric Thanks Jim. No need for me to try to ban smoking. It's a self-correcting problem. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 11:07:38 EST From: Daryll Bolinger Subject: what title will this have? << from Patrick Gaston For Darryl Bollinger Darryl, if the US was still a "significant oil supplier to Japan" in 1937, wouldn't that relationship have been furthered by returning AE and FN (with attendant fanfare) rather than enraging FDR by holding innocent civilians hostage? Are you saying that the US would alter its entire geopolitical strategy over the fate of one stunt flyer? Would we have quit bombing Afghanistan if the Taliban captured Julia Roberts? LTM Pat Gaston (who likes Julia for the AE role in the upcoming movie. Daniel Day-Lewis as FN. Lambrecht & Co. portrayed by Groucho, Harpo and Chico)>> <> <> AHHhh...GEEZ,...I guess the dots were too far apart. I give a logical motive for the Japanese not to immediately return AE/FN to safety and it's made fun of. By the way, It's spelled _Daryll_. Do I dare respond ?...not knowing if Ric will clip it again or not. I'll give it a try. The Secret Service extends protection to certain individuals and relatives just because of the possibility of them being taken "political" hostage. Love or affection for someone is the ultimate motivator. The movie "Green Mile" made a point of that when the little girl didn't scream to save her sister from _immediate_ death by the stranger with the knife. "Hostage Taking" or "Political Hostage Taking" is the most sinister form of assault on someone's liberty that can happen to them. It's done by someone who is weaker against someone who is stronger but at the same time who is powerless to respond. The hostage finds themselves the object of something they had no control over in the first place. You reject the idea of AE as an hostage because the circumstances were so perfect. Two important people, one of them Eleanor Roosevelt's friend, just disappeared off the face of the earth. To everyone in our world they were lost doing what they had chosen to do. There was no real expectation of finding them alive and only a hope at that. Years later a trail shows up from people who had no connection to the western world regarding the event. It caused me to look back on our history to try and understand what the evidence seemed to show. This Forum makes a living on the Japanese not having a motive to detain AE/FN in the Marshalls because it contradicts the NIKU splash down theory. Well there's a heck of a lot more evidence that points in the Marshall Island direction. AE as an "overflight" spy just didn't seem to fit to me, that job could have been done by someone else. Although It is my opinion that AE/FN were working with the Navy's super secret OP-20-G in establishing a picture of the Navy's "radio coverage area" through the Central Pacific. The public only really knows about a hostage situation because of the press (media). The press finds out about it because someone didn't come home from work and they were called. The reason I say AE/FN's circumstances were so perfect was, that the Japanese didn't plan it in advance and she fell right into their laps five days before they went to war with China. War with China would be a "triggering event" for embargo actions by the U.S. Embargo actions come from the "Office of the President" with the nod of his head. I seem to recall that Japan retained a 90 day oil supply in storage. Oil is a consumable and an immediate critical import for Japan who suddenly was at war on July 7th. Japan's oil came from the U.S. and the Dutch East Indies. From memory, without looking it up, I recall that oil was one of Comdr. McCollum's (sp?) points in his memorandum circa 1940-41. The Dutch, under political pressure from the U.S., required the Japanese to pick up oil from them _ONLY_ with their own "flagged" tankers. The Japanese could not fulfill their oil needs with their tankers alone. These same political "oil" strings that the west had on Japan, existed in 1937. Oil then, as it is today, is all political. Now Pat seems to have the impression that a "stunt flyer" could NOT alter U.S. political strategy. I agree _if_ that was public knowledge that was discussed in a public forum at the time, but it wasn't. Just to cast a little different light on these circumstances ; AE was a close personal friend of Eleanor's. Didn't they go flying together? Eleanor even interceded for Mantz to get the radio logs from Sec. Trea. Morgenthau. She did this because of her concern, friendship and memory for AE, not because she was a "stunt flyer". You suggest that the hostage idea is absurd because one person could not move the mass. Well...I see your point,....if the "mass" had known. It would have to be too perfect to have a legitimate reason that BOTH sides would want to keep something like this a secret. Roosevelt certainly could not let it be known that he was being blackmailed by the Japanese because of Eleanor's friend, AE, was a hostage.The Japanese had "Deniability" so they wouldn't say anything either. It is curious to look back at the history books. Japan continued to get oil until 1941 while the U.S. supplemented the Chinese effort against them. Daryll ************************************************************************* From Ric Just to correct a misconception, it really doesn't matter whether the Japanese had a motive or not ("Who knows what evil lurks in the minds of men?"). What little reliable information we have about the Earhart flight indicates that it was physically impossible for her to have gotten to anywhere they were and there's no indication that they journeyed a thousand miles or more into American and/or British territorry to kidnap her. The concept of a secret hostage is an interesting one. Can you cite other examples? LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 11:18:59 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: Mantz and Fuel Consumption 1 A close look at Kelly Johnson's two telegrams on 11 March 37 , see Osborne, page 184, one sent to Amelia at Oakland and the second to A.H. Marshall at Pratt and Whitney, Hartford, Conn., show that Kelly's fuel calculations were dependent on further information forthcoming both from Earhart and from Marshall. He submitted his prelininary calculations based on Earhart's testing to Pratt and Whitney, and also requested that Earhart send results of her "test hop over ocean on way to Oakland at once." 2. It is clear that Johnson expected additional information about fuel consumption from both sources. 3. I have not seen any evidence of Marshall's reply from Pratt and Whitney to Johnson. Johnson intended to send Earhart the refined P&W fuel consumption calculations. What were they? Were those fuel consumption figures changed? Do we have them? 4. Do we have the Johnson's final calculations sent to Amelia by telegram on or about 13 March before her flight to Honolulu? 5. And to add to confusion of Johnson's calculations, his figures were developed for the west to east first flight via Honolulu. The question is were there any changes made by Kelly Johnson after the March 17 Electra ground loop as she prepared for the second attempt. Time, fuel aboard, direction ,altitudes, climate changes for the new flight seems to me should affect AE's consumption. ENTER PAUL MANTZ 7. The Electra is returned to Oakland and rebuilt for the second attempt. According to Lovell's book, p257, Mantz sent the Eclipse flow meter and a Cambridge fuel analyser to the manufacturers for overhaul. Mantz then worked out "a carefully planned table of throttle settings that he felt would enable Amelia to economize on fuel...". On May 21, Amelia left on her first leg to Miami and dumped Mantz. 8. Mantz, said Lovell, was "astounded and angry" because he wanted to make a " ' a final check of her radio equipment, OF HER FUEL CONSUMPTION, to run through the list of optimum power settings for each leg' ".( Emphasis mine) 9. It seems that noone really knows whether Mantz' s recommendations were used by AE or if she relied solely on Kelly Johnson's earlier recommended settings on her world flight, second attempt. 10. In view of Mantz' significant role in March during the Oakland-Honolulu flight of assisting in the fuel consumption, adjustments, and power settings in the Electra , it seems to me that his calculations made in May are necessary to better estimate her fuel consumption. His recommendations might be quite different. It is likely that Earhart depended on the more recent figures than on the Johnson calculations in March. Do Mantz figures exist. In view of the controversy arising again on how much fuel she had left at 0843, maybe Mantz' calculations would help. Ron Bright *************************************************************************** From Ric As Kelly might have said, "You're a bit behind the power curve." You'll find three telegrams from Johnson to AE on the TIGHAR website at http://www.tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Documents/Kelly_Johnson.html where they have been since November 28, 1999. Marshall did confirm the numbers and Johnson did send some minor revisions to AE on March 13. To my knowledge, no recommendations from Mantz have ever turned up but it seems safe to assume that they would only have supplanted Johnson's figures if they provided even better performance. We also know that Mantz believed that the airplane could have reached the Phoenix islands. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 11:24:36 EST From: Ross Devitt Subject: Essential Questions.. > From Tom MM > > So, let's see - why has no one bothered to work up and posted a serious > version of an attempt to reach the Gilbert's or other Phoenix Island? Must > be that it can't be done, right? I don't think the reason no one bothered to work up a Gilberts scenario is that it couldn't be done. I had calculations roughed out that suggested they could have done it on the fuel they probably had if they had a fair tailwind back again. The main point as I see it is that shortly after Earhart and Noonan disappeared, a skeleton was confirmed as being found that possibly had the remains of a European female's shoes in a place where no European (using the term to ciscriminate between native and whatever) female should have been. There was also evidence that a box that once contained a sextant was found. A sextant box is not the sort of thing usually left lying around on an island. I often wondered if this came from the Norwich City, but as anyone who has researched sextants would have found, they were very expensive, and any sextants on board would certainly have been recovered by the N.C. survivors. Anecdotal evidence suggests the box even contained a part of the instrument when found. I have not been able to find an account of the wreck survivors however to see how likely it was that the sextant could have been lost. No such findings have been reported from the Gilberts. Any other stories, myths, legends or whatever are unsupported by material evidence. The Niku hypothesis at least has some actual documented material to support the possibility. It may be wrong. Earhart may never have been near Niku. But the available documented evidence and anecdotes suggest something happened on the island other than the N.C. wreck and that it may have involved a airplane around the time Earhart disappeared. The biggest spanner in the works for me was that there were no obvious objects from the aircraft recovered from Nuku. Things Earhart and Noonan would have taken ashore, like empty thermos bottles, or perhaps the last of Earhart's famous tomato juice. A lot of thinking on this though has reminded me that there have been no obvious finds of items from the survivor's cache either, and it was likely to be a bigger collection of items that that from the plane. The answer probably lies in the fact that some of us forget that the island was constantly inhabited for over 20 years. None of the N.C. cache has been found by Tighar (as far as we know). I'd imagine the Islanders picked it over pretty well. The same would probably apply to anything obviously useful brought ashore from the Electra. Another thought. Somewhere on the island there has to be "the local dump". It is amazing what you can find going through 20+ years of other people's garbage. I'd imagine that has been one of Tom King's priorities. (As an archaeologist - not as a garbage collector). With no conservation movement active when the Island was deserted, there may be some interesting finds amongst the stuff that was not considered worth taking away. Th' WOMBAT *************************************************************************** From Ric The big problem with a return to the Gilberts is fuel AND navigation. You can reverse the procedure that got you to the Howland LOP, i.e. shoot another LOP and advance it back to the Gilberts, but when you get there you don't have any fuel to search along the line. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 12:19:44 EST From: Dick Pingrey Subject: Flying SE on the LOP To Don Neumann, Don, I think part of the problem here is the difference in background and training between the pilots in the group (Excluding Carol Dow) and the non-pilots. As pilots we are taught from day one of our student training in cross country flight planning that it includes both a destination and an alternate. Even today when all our high tech navigational aids insures we will be able to find our destination we still plan for an alternate. This is because the weather at the destination might prevent a landing or an airplane might have crashed on the only runway at our destination closing the field. Thus, for most of the pilots in the group, it would be inconceivable that Amelia and Fred would not have planed for getting to an altenate place to land if they were unable to find Howland. If you start with that mind set and then look at Amelia saying we are running on the line 337 - 153 it is nearly impossible for most of the pilots to read that any other way then as explained by Ric. Would they have flown to the northwest upon reaching the LOP. In my view they would for a short time depending totally upon how they evaluated their fuel situation. If they figured they were about on the fuel burn schedule then a 20 to 30 minute or so run to the northwest would be justified. At that point it would be necessary to do a 180 degree turn and head southwest assuming that Howland was to their southwest on the LOP but if it wasn't they would still find their alternate landing site in the Phoenix Islands before running out of fuel. Personally I can not think of any reason why Amelia and Fred would follow any other plan then one that would take them to a place to land in preference to looking for Howland until they ran out of fuel. I do understand that the non pilots in the group may look at it differently but Amelia and Fred were pilots and Fred was a navigator and they would almost certainly view it from the pilot perspective. It takes just one flight over the vast expanse of the Pacific Ocean as a pilot to bring this point home very clearly. Dick Pingrey in Selah 908C ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 14:02:02 EST From: Gary F. from L.A. CAL Subject: Reef Landing Is it a possibility that AE tried to land on the reef and she just did not have the skill necessary to do so and crashed in her attempt and skidded off the reef? Or over shot on her approach and went in the water? *************************************************************************** From Ric Sure it's possible, but if that is what happned then all of the alleged post-loss radio signals are bogus. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 14:33:32 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: Re: Mantz and Fuel Consumption Thanks for the reference to Kelly Johnsons telegrams on 13 Mar re new figures for fuel consumption. My second question is would the reverse route going east to Howland have any significant affect on fuel consumption estimates? Would new routes, new altitudes,etc., or whatever variables affect consumption, prompted Johnson to revise figures for the flight leaving May 1. A lay question, of course. Is it your understanding that no new consumption figures were made after 13 March 37? LTM, Ron Bright ************************************************************************** From Ric All we can say is that if any new power management formula was devised we don't know about it. I can't see how reversing course around ther world would have any possible bearing on power settings. Air is air. The engine doesn't know or care which way it's pointed. ========================================================================= Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 14:35:23 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: Paul Mantz and AE For historical interest, A. Paul Mantz, Paul Mantz's son wrote a letter dated 14 Sep 92 from Monticello, Ut, ( to an unidentified researcher). He claims his father was having an "affair" with Amelia when he was married to his first wife Myrtle. Of interest for us, A. Paul Mantz writes that his father "felt she most likely was lost at sea. Or maybe on a very slim chance could have possibly ended up on an island. But this he doubted. As famous as she was he felt it didn't sound to likely that the Japanese would have killed her." [sic] According to A. Paul Mantz, his father blamed Amelia's loss on her removal of a trailing antenna that he had installed, and that Amelia just wouldn't listen to him. A. Paul Mantz said that his father's documents with the serial numbers were stolen, which he said "added to the mystery". There is no specific mention of any fuel consumption recommendations. This letter is of course hearsay and A. Paul wrote that his sources were conversations with his father and many newspaper articles. LTM, Ron Bright Bremerton, WA. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 11:12:04 EST From: Dick Pingrey Subject: Jim W and other forum lurkers I think it is important that the so called "lurkers" on the forum realize that they may just hold the key to solving many of the difficult problems that come up from time to time. Maybe it is simply asking a question or suggesting that we look at a problem from a different point of view. Some times the answer is hard for those very close to a problem to see but those less involved can look at the problem from a different perspective that come up with a solution. They may have read a small bit of information that the rest of us have never seen or heard about. Yes, you can be put down if you ask a stupid question or make a mistake in the information you put forward (been there and done that). We all have different ways of looking at problems and we all have vastly different backgrounds and experiences to call upon. There have been several times on the forum when just one small bit of data has open up vast amounts of information. Its great to lurk but of even greater value to contribute. Jim W, we all have learned a great deal by being members of the forum and we can learn even more with the additional ideas and information that you lurkers can very possibly share with the rest of the group. None of us have a corner on all the knowledge or experience that is needed to solve the Earhart mystery. In my opinion it is the collective efforts of many people that makes the forum such a valuable tool. Dick Pingrey in Selah, 908C ************************************************************************* From Ric Amen. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 11:13:03 EST From: David Kelly Subject: Re: what title will this have? From Stijn de Jong > > Exactly. I prefer a good meal any day. The main reason I've been lurking > here for the past 2 years is because I find the discussions between all you > experts utterly fascinating, yet I'm not nearly knowledgeable enough to > actively participate in them. You don't have to be intelligent OR an expert. (TIGHAR regularly publishes my posts). It does help to ask sensible questions though, and to have followed the forum for a while as you have, AND read the TIGHAR FAQs on the web site. Actually, it's a good idea to check out the whole TIGHAR site at www.tighar.org just to see what has been discussed already. You'll notice that we don't all agree with every aspect of the TIGHAR hypothesis, but most of us do agree it is a distinct possibility because of certain evidence that came to light (letters, bone discovery etc.) so we try to add bits and pieces from time to time. The biggest mistake new forum members seem to make is jumping in with questions that have been discussed at great length already, or, as I did, make some startling new discovery that has already been discovered several times . Reading the documents on the website makes understanding the forum posts so much easier, and can fill in some time on those rainy days. Th' WOMBAT. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 11:19:27 EST From: Ross Devitt Subject: Re: Mantz and Fuel Consumption > From Ron Bright, > 5. And to add to confusion of Johnson's calculations, his figures were > developed for the west to east first flight via Honolulu. The question is > were there any changes made by Kelly Johnson after the March 17 Electra > ground loop as she prepared for the second attempt. Time, fuel aboard, > direction ,altitudes, climate changes for the new flight seems to me should > affect AE's consumption. It is worth remembering that, although we don't have fuel figures, by the time the Electra left Lae it had been flown about half way round the world. From their various hops, some of them quite long ones, Earhart and Noonan had considerable written data on fuel consumption and speed in various conditions, with and without head and tailwinds in various weather conditions. All this would have been taken into account as they prepared to leave Lae. A couple of years ago I tried to work out their fuel usage across Africa and Indonesia using their known routes, stops and existing receipts. If I remember correctly I had an average of something like 42gph. The problem is that there was no info on whether they followed standard procedure and topped up the tanks they were using, and whether they were charged for unused fuel left in opened drums so it was a lost cause. I still think there is an important key to the fuel consumption figures to be found in relating the Kelly Johnson figures to the Clarence Williams flight plan. Those times, especially the initial 22 minutes have to be important. Th' WOMBAT ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 11:33:22 EST From: Ross Devitt Subject: Re: Essential Questions.. > From Ric > > The big problem with a return to the Gilberts is fuel AND navigation. You > can reverse the procedure that got you to the Howland LOP, i.e. shoot > another LOP and advance it back to the Gilberts, but when you get there you > don't have any fuel to search along the line. Had they turned back, and I still think they could have had the fuel, they had a whole chain of islands virtually across their path. I don't think they would have worried about which one they found. My argument for Niku still stands though. Niku was on the reported line they were flying when last heard from and has the evidence of something out of the ordinary involving a female's shoes, a sextant box and various anecdotal stories some of which are backed by hard evidence. The Gilberts were not. I also still believe it was no coincidence that the radio logs suggest almost exactly an hour was spent looking for Howland. It looks too much like a plan was in effect. Search for an hour in the area, then head off to look for an alternative, "running on line". All it needed was for them to say which direction. Line 157/337 would suggest at first they were heading the wrong way. Th' WOMBAT ************************************************************************* From Ric <<...they had a whole chain of islands virtually across their path.>> Look at the map. If they were smack on course for Howland and turned back for the Gilberts they would be headed for the seven atolls of the Southern Gilberts, but only five were reachable with even an optimistic assessment of their fuel and the wind. If they were north of course they would be headed for the three atolls of the Central Gilberts, but they wouldn't be able to reach any of them. If they were south of course, forget it. They would miss the entire chain. And they had no way of knowing whether they were on, north, or south of course. Turning back for the Gilberts was not an attractive option. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 11:35:00 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: what title will this have? Ric, after reading the last few posts it is evident to me that we should start all over. Some folks have not been listening over the last few years AT ALL. Can emails bounce off rather than being absorbed? Alan #2329 ************************************************************************** From Ric It depends upon the density of the target. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 11:35:55 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: Essential Questions.. > The main reason I've been lurking > here for the past 2 years is because I find the discussions between all you > experts utterly fascinating, yet I'm not nearly knowledgeable enough to > actively participate in them. That lack of knowledge has not stopped anyone else. Participate away. Alan #2329 ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 11:37:30 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: SE on the LOP > What I do find lacking from that scenario however, is the > non-consideration of what I (apparently alone) believe is the _equally_ > important issue of just how AE/FN (presuming of course, that AE/FN were > still capable of any reasonable/rational analysis of their situation) > had any reasonable expectation of ultimate survival & rescue, from an > uninhabited, equitorial island, with limited (if any ) fresh water > source, especially when they had never established any two-way radio > communication with their only _known_ rescue (or anyone else that _we_ > know of) source & had never (to our knowledge) informed such rescue > source that they were flying 300+ miles to the SE. Don, perhaps you are alone in this question because most of us believe the chances of surviving and being found is better from an island than from 17,000 feet below the ocean's surface. You also say, "adherents/supporters seem to insist that there is absolutely _no_ other (reasonable/logical) way to explain the disappearance of AE/FN & their Electra & since there is no 'evidence' (by their own measure) to support any other scenario/theory/hypothesis...." There is certainly evidence of some kind or another for the Niku theory. What is your evidence for any other theory? Do you have evidence from any other island in the Phoenix group or from any island in the Gilberts? If you're going to try the Marshall nonsense you will first have to give a rational or even possible explanation as to how the plane got there. THEN offer up evidence it was in the Marshalls. The reason some of us are somewhat dogmatic about this is that so far no one has offered any evidence from the Gilberts or the other Phoenix Islands and no one has been able to explain or even try to explain how the Electra could possibly get from Howland to the Marshall Islands. Can you supply any of that? I'm not trying to say your ideas have no merit, Don. I'm certain you believe what you write but I'm missing any support for them. I may well have skimmed through emails and missed it so if you don't mind please help me out. Alan #2329 ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 11:39:02 EST From: Woody Subject: Re: Search Justification Alan, Sometime in the near future I will be returning to Taroa with GPR and a Mag Scan unit. I am going to pay the natives to devegetate gridded areas of underbrush and do the scanning with hand held units. I will take 3 months to do the entire island. With that information I can then apply for a dig permit with the HPO in the promising areas, after I reach an agreement with the landowner. My plan is to settle the question as to wether or not the Japanese buried Amelia's plane on Taroa. I will go to Mili when done and use the same equipment on certain areas of some of the islands in that atoll group. Woody ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 11:51:12 EST From: Brandon Subject: AE/FN movie First things first, sorry about bringing up the smoking issue. Now I am going to get to the real issue, is there really a movie being made about AE/FN's infamous flight around the world? Or is just forum makebelieving? By the way I won't be able to get a good nights sleep if I don't get an honest answer! Brandon, KB3GPA Ric, by the way I will join TIGHAR as soon as I can cough up the dough to join up. It is hard being an 18 year old high school student trying to save up money for car insurance and a car while working for $5.65 an hour at a Giant Eagle! **************************************************************************** From Ric A production company bought the rights to Jane Mendelsohn's horrendous novel "I Was Amelia Earhart". There has been talk of actually making a movie if somebody can translate the book into English but so far the project seems to be all talk. If anybody knows different, please warn us. It's a bit difficult to sympathize with your money woes if you're spending most of your hourly wage to buy one pack of cigarettes. This is not a financial issue, it's an intelligence issue. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 11:59:15 EST From: Tom MM Subject: Essential Questions.. > Ross Devitt wrote >I don't think the reason no one bothered to work up a Gilberts scenario is >that it couldn't be done. I had calculations roughed out that suggested they >could have done it on the fuel they probably had if they had a fair tailwind >back again. Ross, quite true. However, my question was largely rhetorical. I think any navigator could put together a reasonable plan to either return to a "close" Gilbert or to another Phoenix Island (Canton springs to mind as a target). Given the contemporary or subsequent populations of those areas, I think it is quite safe to say that if that was the choice it was not successful. However, it does leave open a "crashed at sea enroute" possiblility. None of FN's options offered any real certainty - "running down the LOP" for anything like the potential distance to Niku is not a good bet either. Going down at sea would have been a very real possibility there as well. There is nothing essentially wrong with Niku as a hypothesis among several, and there is nothing wrong with a forum which is committed toward that hypothesis if the owner(s) of the forum so choose. It is a bit silly though, to imply that alternate views serve anything other than an opportunity to restate the Niku hypothesis, or as entertainment during slow periods on the forum. It is all very fun and interesting, but real discussion of alternatives does not belong here. TOM MM *************************************************************************** From Ric Look, Earhart could have gone down at sea - we all acknowledge that - but I really don't see how constructing imagined scenarios about how she might have tried to get hither and yon before hitting the drink will accomplish anything except burning bandwidth. Crashed and Sank is not a testable hypothesis. The Niku Hypothesis is. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 12:16:06 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Re: SE on the LOP >Thus, for most of the pilots in the group, it would be inconceivable >that Amelia and Fred would not have planed for getting to an altenate >place to land if they were unable to find Howland. If you start with >that mind set and then look at Amelia saying we are running on the line >337 - 153 it is nearly impossible for most of the pilots to read that >any other way then as explained by Ric'... >Dick Pingrey in Selah 908C Even as a non-pilot, the logic of your reasoning appeals to me (& always has), however, the people that AE was trying to communicate with on the Itasca were _not_ pilots & I think we might also agree, they would therefore _probably_ not have had that same 'intuitive' ability to 'think' like a pilot, upon hearing AE's last 'LOP' transmission, & thereby automatically start steaming SE toward the Phoenix Islands as the 'obvious' location of the flight's alternate landfall. In fact, Cmdr Thompson's reaction was exactly the opposite, once he'd convinced himself that the Electra was 'down', he headed NW where he viewed the gathering 'storm' clouds on the horizon, which his 'seafaring' experience _probably_ suggested to him, must be the spot where the Electra ran into trouble, because of two brief, pre-dawn references made by AE about 'cloudy & overcast'. >Personally I can not think of any reason why Amelia and Fred would >follow any other plan then one that would take them to a place to land >in preference to looking for Howland until they ran out of fuel. I do >understand that the non pilots in the group may look at it differently >but Amelia and Fred were pilots and Fred was a navigator and they would >almost certainly view it from the pilot perspective'... Frankly, I must agree with _your_ perspective here (even though I'm _not_ a pilot). Yet, given _your_ perspective, that AE/FN had _planned_ all along for just such a _possible_ contingency & knew (in advance) they would fly SE on the LOP to the Phoenix Chain, _if_ they failed in their efforts to 'find' Howland, does it not seem rather strange/unusual that two such highly practical & pragmatic air-persons as AE/FN would not supply the Itasca with at least _some_ clue as to those intentions, rather than the rather ambiguous announcement that they were on the LOP, 'running North & South' ? Additionally, as Chief Navigator for PAA it would seem (to me anyway) that FN would have had _some_ access to the planning & preliminary investigative material being developed by PAA (as early as 1934) for the proposed Clipper route to New Zealand via Kingman Reef to Samoa, which included surveys of those Central Pacific Islands adjacent to that proposed route, including the Phoenix Chain. Seems reasonable (to me anyway) that such material would have contained _some_ information about the habitation/non-habitation of such islands as well as the resources such islands might provide, including availabilty/non-availability of fresh water sources. Making the _assumption_ (not an unreasonable assumption, to me anyway) that FN was somewhat knowledgeable about the demographics of the Phoenix Island Chain, would that not have made it imperative that he would insist AE provide some signal to Itasca of their intentions to fly SE to the Phoenix Chain, if their SE 'sweep' on the SE leg of the LOP failed to turn-up Howland or Baker islands, given the _possibility_ that they _might_ wind-up landing on one of those uninhabited, inhospitable islands, where ultimate survival & rescue would be _highly_ problematical, especially with the seeming inabiliy of AE to achieve any reliable two-way communication with Itasca ? Naturally, not being a pilot nor being a navigatior, my views are no doubt 'suspect', but I'm not altogether certain that common-sense observations or applications are _always_ over-ruled by only considering one's own perspective of the issues & problems involved. By the way, given the very practical perspective that you have as an experienced, over-water pilot, what is your _opinion_ as to whether FN (very practical/pragmatic, experienced aerial & maritime navigator that he seemed to be) used any 'off-set' in charting his course from the Gilberts to Howland? Don Neumann **************************************************************************** From Ric Do we really need to dig up that horse? It was smelling pretty bad when we buried it a year or so ago (for the umpteenth time). To correct a couple of misconceptions (again): - There were no storm clouds gathering to the northwest. The scattered clouds just looked a little thicker in that direction. There's no question about that. The Itasca's deck log records what the cloud cover was when they got there. - Earhart never said "cloudy and overcast". Thompson added that when he wrote up his Radio Transcripts Earhart Flight report. Bellarts' original log contains no such entry and, at that time (according to Bellarts) Earhart's tranmissions were coming in only over his own headphones, so it does not seem possible that someone else heard somethig he missed. - If PAA developed any information about the islands of the Phoenix Group prior to 1937 I've never heard about it. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 12:17:51 EST From: Dean Andrea Subject: Re: Leaving the forum? I am a member of TIGHAR and the forum because of an interest in Amelia. I think TIGHAR has an excellent way of uncovering clues/facts to find out what really did happen to her last flight. To me, TIGHAR has simply followed a logical pursuit of a mystery and I believe they, or some of the things they uncover, will convince most people of what became of Amelia and Fred. I run several businesses and don't have a lot of time to read messages and post. Occasionally, if I have time, and something really is interesting to me I will post to the forum. I do find myself getting frustrated with BS and rehashing things for the tenth time. However, I am not frustrated enough to leave the forum but I do use the "delete " button A LOT. I think a lot of people get frustrated following a seemingly "boring" methodology to arrive at the truth about something. They want something spectacular and QUICK and when they don't get it they give up and try something else. There is no substitute for hard work. This is what needs to be done. ========================================================================= Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 12:26:34 EST From: Christopher Subject: Re: Search Justification I understand the need/want to search as thoroughly as possible...... BUT...... DEVEGETATE AN ENTIRE ISLAND/ECOSYSTEM? Um...... I realize that archaeology is inherently destructive to the environment, but there should be SOME sense of environmental protection. LTM, Christopher Ferro (from Wheeling, WV) **************************************************************************** From Ric Don't worry Chris. The Republic of the Marshall Islands has an excellent set of laws and regulations governing the protection and preservation of its WWII historic sites and they have an active and vigilant Historic Preservation Office who make sure that amateur treasure hunters do not disturb them. Woody is not going to devegetate anything and he is certanly not going to be permitted do any digging. (You see, the head of the HPO is really the illegitimate son of a scandalous liaison between FDR and Tokyo Rose and there is no way he is going to let Woody uncover that airplane.) ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 09:34:43 EST From: Jim Tierney Subject: Re: Lurkers Dick--Speaking for a small group of Forum Lurkers--a group of one-.. Thank you for the kind words and invitation to participate.... We appreciate it and will do so..... Some of us do already--inserting facts-corrections-references-as we see the need. We enjoy the forum and wish it to continue.... Jim Tierney Simi Valley, CA ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 09:35:37 EST From: Dennis McGee Subject: Devegetate? Woody said: "Sometime in the near future I will be returning to Taroa with GPR and a Mag Scan unit. I am going to pay the natives to devegetate gridded areas of underbrush and do the scanning with hand held units. I will take 3 months to do the entire island." Do I read this correctly that you are planning to "devegetate" the island of Taroa so it can be mag scanned with hand-held units? I see two problems with that. One, are the inhabitants of Taroa or its government to be consulted prior to your destruction of their habitat? I'd love to see your Environmental Impact Statement on this project. Two, the island is about 1.5 km wide by 1.6 km long, for a total surface area of about 2.5 square-kms. I don't think 90 days is enough time to do it by hand. Have you thought of using fire? LTM, who is resting at the moment Dennis O. McGee #0149EC ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 10:05:25 EST From: Marjorie Subject: On the LOP Forgive me if this is another horse, dead and buried before I joined the forum, (and I will probably display a shocking ignorance about the principals of navigation) but could the phrase "on the LOP, running north and south" refer to one of two lines of position, the other running east and west? Wouldn't it take two lines to define a point such as Howland Island? And presumably the one running east west would be from Lae to Howland's longitude? -- Marjorie Smith ************************************************************************** From Ric Yes, it takes two lines to define a specific location but two lines were not available to Noonan. The LOP referred to was derived from a celestial observation of the sun at sunrise. There was no way to get an East/West LOP. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 10:07:01 EST From: Dick Pingrey Subject: SE on the LOP Don, just a couple of quick points. I think Amelia's "Flying on the line 337 - 153" statement was a clear message of her plan to follow that line to the southwest. She was telling the world what she was planning to do. Had she been in two way communications with the Coast Guard she may have sent much more information on what she was doing but she didn't know if they could hear her or not. We don't know that she didn't try to transmit her position and her intent to land on Gardner once they reached the island. All we know is that no one heard her send that message. When her last message was sent about flying on the LOP she probably was fully expecting to find Howland so there was no reason to say she was on her way to an alternate. The fact that Comander Thompson, a non-pilot, searched to the Northwest may be explained by the fact he was not a pilot and may not have understand the significance of the LOP message and Amelia's need to eventually stay on that line heading to the SW if Howland wasn't found. Dick Pingrey 908C ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 10:10:57 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Preponderence of Evidence >If those who can not recognize the preponderance of evidence that >points to Nikumaroro seem dull-witted we can only continue to try to >find evidence that is easier for them to understand'... :-) >LTM, >Ric Dull witted lout that I am, I still prefer the terms: 'artifacts & clues', when identifying the great wealth of material that the extensive TIGHAR efforts have produced thus far & I do applaud & wish you well in your continuing & determined efforts to tie the knot on the connection between the latest batch of artifacts, with the AE/FN flight. <:-( Don Neumann ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 10:28:52 EST From: Daryll Bollinger Subject: mileage & hostages <<"...the Earhart flight indicates that it was physically impossible for her to have gotten to anywhere they were..." [Ric] >> The mileage difference between Mili and Niku is about 240 miles.........3,2,1, While you're still picking yourself up off the floor laughing, Alan Caldwell # figured that out. That's how much fuel the Electra needed and didn't have, based on the point to point distance between Howland and Mili. You, yourself, have admitted to a 200 mile radius for a margin of error around Howland. So what now?.....you want to argue about the 40 miles that I could explain away with a tail wind. Do you want to simply just ignore the witnesses on Mili who saw her crash? <<...The concept of a secret hostage is an interesting one. Can you cite other examples? LTM, Ric >> To use your own words, Is that click I hear the sound of a trap being set ?? I'm not really clear on the "other examples" you're asking for, about "secret hostages". If they were secret....how would I know about them? First of all, I think everyone should go to their dictionary and look up the word "hostage" like I did. I think it should be clear that I didn't apply the term "hostage" to AE. I noted it's use in connection to her during my research on the French "bottle message" . Here is an example of something that might be equivalent ; Eric de Bisschop (EdeB), who wrote the "bottle message", & Joseph Tatibouet were held by the Japanese at Jaluit (1935) for 15 days. That 15 day time period was the amount of time it took the Japanese Governor on Jaluit to check his story out with Tokyo and come to decision. I think the 15 day time period is reflective of the mechanical speed of communications between "command & control" in the Marshalls circa mid '30's. It also showed that anything that was done (politically) in Marshalls went through Tokyo. In defense of the Japanese position, they didn't kidnap AE. They were technically her rescuers. I can imagine the political posturing that would go on trying to determine at what point a rescue stops and detention starts. Where it gets real sticky is when the rescuee/hostage dies while in and under your control. I think an analogy would be ; A person was given a week in jail for being drunk and disorderly,....they die in jail,....then they were really given a life sentence for being drunk and disorderly. The point where the "rescued" becomes a hostage would be the point where a demand is made. I think the real concern here is whether "secret negotiations" (Presidential Blackmail) could have taken place or not and still remain a secret. In 1937 the only secret form of communication in the world, over such a long distance, would be the diplomatic pouch. I can see a minimum of three people being involved. 1. The Japanese counterpart 2. Ambassador Grew in Tokyo 3. FDR "eyes only" in Washington. There is a living Japanese historian that has stated that in the 2 weeks prior to the occupation of US forces in 1945, the Japanese destroyed all evidence that could be used against the Emperor in a war crimes trial. Presumably that means international crimes before the war also. I'm told that Ambassador Grew makes no mention of the Earhart matter during his tenure. There can be no lies about things that were never said. What that leaves is another attempt to prove a "negative hypothesis". Embargo actions, or the threat of them, are presidential tools for him to use as _he sees_ fit. The "Blackmail pay-off", using AE in a hostage status, would be for FDR to do _nothing_ regarding embargos against Japan because of the Chinese war. Daryll *************************************************************************** From Ric I don't know where the 240 miles comes from. I make it about 750 nm from Howland to Mili and about 350 nm from Howland to Gardner, so it looks to me like Mili is 400 miles farther away from Howland than is Gardner. As for all of the witnesses who saw her crash at Mili: TIGHAR's investigation is based upon the premise that anecdotal accounts (eye witnesses who tell their story years later) are not, in themselves, evidence of anything but a possible direction in which to look for documents, photographs or artifacts. In the case of Gardner, for example, anecdotes about the bones of a woman castaway being found led us to documented proof that it actually happened. I'm not aware of any such verification of any of the stories about Mili. If you know of any such hard evidence I'd love to hear about it. Otherwise I'll assume that your hypothesis is based primarily upon your own imagination. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 10:40:09 EST From: Paul Penwell Subject: Earhart Biography I came across an Earhart biography in my local library titled "East to the Dawn" by Susan Butler, copy write 1997. I mention it because I did not see it in the bios list on the web site. Perhaps it is old news and has been discussed previously here. I did not read the entire book but merely skimmed it and will not attempt to give a review. My comments are that on the couple of chapters dealing with Earhart's around the world flight the author quotes transcribed telephone conversations and other telegrams (during the flight) between Amelia and Putnam. Particularly pages 396 - 403. According to the author certain content of these communications such as Amelia saying "having personnel problems again" is indicating that Noonan had been drinking again. I known the Noonan the alcoholic subject has been discussed many times and that it does not help anyway with determining the Electras ultimate fate. But found it interesting and perhaps some do not know of this biography. *************************************************************************** From Ric Yes, we need to update that list. Butler's book is a rather worshipful biography of AE that avoids or glosses over many of the less attractive aspects of her life. The alleged content of the telephone call is footnoted as having come from a book written by Paul Collins who claimed to have been present with Putnam and took notes of both sides of the phone conversation between GP and AE (he said the connection with Karachi was so good that he could clearly hear what Amelia was saying). The notes were not produced. It's pure anecdote. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 10:41:15 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: mileage & hostages << The mileage difference between Mili and Niku is about 240 miles.........3,2,1, While you're still picking yourself up off the floor laughing, Alan Caldwell figured that out. That's how much fuel the Electra needed and didn't have, based on the point to point distance between Howland and Mili. >> Daryll, if you're going to quote me you need to get your facts straight. The difference in mileage between Niku and Mili is NOT 240 miles. The difference is 461 statute miles or 404 nautical miles. Now talk about a tail wind. Was it of hurricane strength? Alan #2329 ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 10:44:59 EST From: Cam Warren Subject: Re: SE on the LOP Somehow you keep forgetting (accidentally, I'm sure!) about Canton as the best alternate landing site. Ten times the size, broad flat beaches, some water, and better known to the shipping trade. And it's only about a half hour more flying time than Gardner. Obviously AE/FN never got that far - the old "out of gas" problem, but I still maintain the deep sea recovery boys look around Winslow Reef first. And, oh yes, Pacific Air Pilot (examined by the Electra crew prior to the last flight), had lots of information about Canton and other good choices. (Gardner didn't make the cut; sorry!). Cam Warren **************************************************************************** From Ric Perhaps you'd like to accept Bob Brandenburg's "Essential Questions" challenge and show just how you'd get from an unknown position on the 157/337 LOP to Canton Island? ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 10:57:40 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Washing up in the Gilberts >I don't think the reason no one bothered to work up a Gilberts scenario is >that it couldn't be done. I had calculations roughed out that suggested they >could have done it on the fuel they probably had if they had a fair tailwind >back again. >Ross Devitt There is another question that has always bothered me, do we have any record of just how _thorough_ a search was conducted by the British administrators of the Gilbert Islands, (which span the equator, perpendicularly, for some 500 miles) & just what resources did _they_ commit to such effort? I don't know of any British seaplanes based in the Gilberts, nor do I know of any 'official' ships or boats regularly plying the waters between the respective islands of the chain. In fact, judging from the Itasca reports, the British appeared to rely soley upon the reports (or non-reports) of the _residents_ of such respective islands, in determining whether AE/FN or their Electra had been 'spotted' & the Itasca itself made only a cursory search of one or two of the _main_ islands before abandoning the search of the Gilberts. Additionally, I've never been able to ascertain whether _all_ of the islands in the Gilbert Chain were actually inhabited or regularly 'visited' by any Gilberts' residents in 1937. I've always accepted the conventional wisdom expressed by the 'experts' that AE/FN would _not_ have sufficient reserve fuel in the Electra's tanks, at the time of her last (recorded) radio transmission, to fly back to the Gilberts & that it would _not_ have been possible for FN to navigate a course back to the Gilberts from an _unknown_ position on the LOP. However, (bite-my-tongue) _supposing_ AE/FN actually did the 'unthinkable' & against all 'conventional' widom, turned back to the Gilberts & 'splashed' somewhere near enough to reach one of the many islands in the chain (uninhabited in 1937) by raft, what would their chances of being found have been, if in fact, only a 'cursory' search (if any) of the more outlying islands was made at the time? Hmmm, sounds something like a very familiar scenario, lost on an uninhabited island, with no fresh water source, & no radio to communicate with any possible rescuers, (who don't have the faintest idea where they are anyway) also no US Navy aircraft searching through the islands, because the Itasca had already been there, done that ! Who knows, maybe the skulls & bones of our intrepid air-persons are still buried or bleaching in the sands of one of the more remote islands of the Gilbert Chain ? Sorry Ric, just couldn't help myself, us dull-witted folks just can't seem to pass up any potentially promising scenarios that seem to always be popping-up! Don Neumann *************************************************************************** From Ric That's the curse of being dull-witted. Lots of things look promising (astrology, remote viewing, magnetic therapy, playing the lottery, uninhabited islands in the Gilberts) that a little research would show to be less so. The Gilbert Islands had been under British rule since 1892 and were part of a well-established and closely administered colonial system. None of the islands was uninhabited. In fact, overpopulation was a serious concern and the main motivation for the Phoenix Island Settlement Scheme. Had Earhart and/or Noonan washed up on any of the atolls of the Gilberts it would have taken a Bollinger Class conspiracy to keep that information away from the searchers. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 10:58:57 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: Search Justification > I will go to Mili when done and > use the same equipment on certain areas of some of the islands in that > atoll > group. Woody > Woody, I certainly wish you good luck. That is quite an undertaking. You already know how I feel about the Marshall theory so I won't go over that again. To date no one has been able to explain how the plane could possibly get to the Marshalls but if you find it there I'll concede. Alan #2329 ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 11:00:48 EST From: Lawrence Subject: Re: Search Justification << "a scandalous liaison between FDR and Tokyo Rose">> I thought Amelia WAS Tokyo Rose! ************************************************************************* From Ric Exactly. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 11:01:26 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: SE on the LOP Don, I reread my response to you and I sounded too harsh. I apologize. Some things just get frustrating after awhile. I meant no disrespect to you or your opinions. Alan #2329 ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 11:02:36 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: AE/FN movie >There has been talk of actually making a movie if > somebody can translate the book into English They might use Forum emails to make their movie but they might run into the same difficulty. Alan #2329 ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 11:06:46 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: SE on the LOP > To correct a couple of misconceptions (again): > - There were no storm clouds gathering to the northwest. The scattered > clouds just looked a little thicker in that direction. There's no question > about that. The Itasca's deck log records what the cloud cover was when > they got there. > - Earhart never said "cloudy and overcast". Thompson added that when he > wrote up his Radio Transcripts Earhart Flight report. Ric, there is a web page called truth or fiction (I think) that debunks a lot of the nonsense we are sent over the internet. Maybe we need a page on the web site briefly debunking all the many misconceptions and continued mistatements we on this forum are constantly treated to. Your comments above are a good example of the brevity I refer to. Alan #2329 *************************************************************************** From Ric We try, we try. The TIGHAR website has two such features: "Common Earhart Myths" http://www.tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/forum/FAQs/AEmyths.html and "Forum FAQs" http://www.tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/forum/FAQs/Forumfaq.html ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 11:17:40 EST From: Oscar Boswell Subject: Re: You can get there from here - fuel for the Gilberts Some months ago, Ric said "you can pretty much get her to run out of fuel whenever you want". And that's perfectly true. You can create a scenario that gives fuel exhaustion at 20+13. You can postulate a "normal endurance" of 24 hours following Kelly Johnson's figures. And you can create a flight plan that takes the plane from the Howland vicinity at 20+13 to the Gilberts (or even Mili), all based upon figures in Lockheed Report 465. Ric, you should still have the cruise data graph from Report 465 that I sent you. It is a one page document. Might I suggest posting it? Almost anyone should be able to read it and learn a few things about the actual cruise capability of the Lockheed 10 E at normal gross weight. The chart shows clearly that at normal gross weight, 10,000 feet and 38 gph, the plane was capable of about 173 mph. At normal gross weight, 10,000 feet and 200 hp per engine (under 31 gph at a specific fuel consumption of .46) the plane was capable of 165 mph. At 1000 feet, a 200 hp per engine setting gave 151 mph at normal gross weight (fuel consumption say 32 gph at sfc of .48). These figures are important because they are significantly higher than the 150 mph that we all tend to assume was the normal speed of the plane. Once gross weight was reduced to below 10,500 pounds, it was faster than that, on less than 38 GPH. Let's construct a flightplan. Assume 1100 gallons of fuel and a 15,000 gross weight on takeoff. Assume that Kelly Johnson's plan is followed for the first 15 hours of the flight. The first question we need to answer is "what speeds will the Johnson settings give at the increased gross weight?" Although the charts in Report 465 give the normal cruise speeds at 10,500 pounds, that report contains no information on the effect of increased weight, so we need to add some assumptions about how to calculate that. Let's be conservative in our assumptions about the effect of gross weight, and err on the side of maximum effect. (That assumption is conservative in this context because we are attempting to show that the plane had greater range available than is usually supposed in these discussions, and our error will reduce the range we calculate.) I propose to assume that speed varied with the square root of the fraction of which the numerator is the cube of 10,500 and the denominator is the cube of the actual weight. (This is not a purely idosyncratic assumption; it is a simplification of John D. Anderson, Jr.'s discussion of power required in AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE AND DESIGN, pages 234-239.) Using that method, speed at 14,000 pounds would be .6495 (64.95 % or say 65%) of the speed at 10,500, all other things being equal. If, for example, the airplane would fly at 190 mph at a given power setting and 10,500 pounds, it would maintain 123.5 mph at 14,000 pounds. The following table calculates speeds using that method. What do the first 15 hours look like using Kelly Johnson's instructions for the flight to Hawaii? HOUR GPH TOTAL FUEL USE SPEED DISTANCE TOTAL DISTANCE WEIGHT 1 100 100 0-120 100 100 14,400 2 60 160 122-127 125 225 14,040 3 60 220 127-132 130 355 13,680 4 60 280 132-137 135 490 13,320 5 51 331 133-138 135 625 13,017 6 51 382 138-143 140 765 12,714 7 51 433 143-148 145 910 12,411 8 43 476 138-143 140 1050 12,153 9 43 519 143-148 145 1195 11,895 10 43 562 148-153 150 1345 11,637 11 38 600 148-153 150 1495 11,409 12 38 638 153-158 155 1650 11,171 13 38 676 158-163 160 1810 10,943 14 38 714 163-168 165 1975 10,715 15 38 752 168-173 170 2145 10,487 In this table, the GPH column gives the fuel consumption in gallons per hour for the hour of the fllight shown in the HOUR column. The TOTAL FUEL USE gives total consumption for that hour and all previous hours combined. The SPEED column gives the speed range for that hour's fllight, rounded to the nearest mph - 143-148 means that speed was 143 at the beginning of the hour, and that it increased to 148 during the hour due to the reduction in aircraft weight caused by fuel burn. The DISTANCE column gives the total distance (IN STILL AIR MILES) flown during the hour - or, stated differently, the average True Air Speed for the hour - rounded to the nearest 5 mph. The TOTAL DISTANCE column gives the distance IN STILL AIR MILES covered since the beginning of the flight. And the WEIGHT column gives weight AT THE END OF THE HOUR, which is also the aircraft weight (obviously enough) at the beginning of the next flight hour. Notice that in the first 15 hours, use of the KJ settings has reduced the weight of the plane to below its normal gross of 10,500 pounds, and that the speed at the 38 gph setting (approximately 237 hp per engine) is about 173 mph at 10,000 feet. (The average true airspeed for the first 15 hours is 143.) Fuel remaining is approximately 350 gph. We have two choices: continue to use the KJ 38 gph setting, which will give us 9 more hours, at a speed in excess of 173 mph, or reduce power to increase endurance and range. The chart in Report 465 indicates that we can cut fuel consumption to under 31 gph by going to a 200 hp per engine setting that will yield 165 mph at 10,000 feet for more than 11 hours. The 2 hour increase in edurance is obviously a good trade for the loss of perhaps 8 mph (9 x 173 = 1557; and 11 x 165 =1815, a gain of 258 miles in still air). We reduce to 31 gph and continue on for 4 additional hours, covering at least 660 still air miles (still being conservative, we discount the continuing increase in speed each hour with fuel burn). At 19+12 we have covered (2145 + 660 +33 =) 2738 statute still air miles. This is the trip distance (2,556) plus 182 miles (slightly less than a 10 mph headwind allowance) and "we must be on." We can remain in the area searching until 20+30 or even 21 + 00. At 21+00 we still have 5 hours fuel remaining that will give more than 151 mph at 1000 feet and more than 165 mph at 10,000 feet, and when we turn to the West, we will receive the benefit of a tailwind. The Gilberts are about 600 miles away, stretched along a line that roughly parallels the 157-337 line through Howland for a distance of 400 miles. A turn due West brings us to that line in 3 1/2 hours. We have 1 and 1/2 hours of fuel remaining.. Q.E.D. Mili is a stretch, but it's only about 800 miles from a point on the 157-337 line 120 miles NW of Howland. (All distances are eyeball estimates from the chart in Roy Blay's article in the May 1988 LOCKHEED HORIZONS.) If you assume the plane was 120 miles to the NW, you can make it to Mili with a small reserve. This is the thesis of the Loomis and Ethell book, AMELIA EARHART: THE FINAL STORY, which relied on the computer radio analysis of Paul Radford for the plane's position. Under that thesis, the turn to the West to reach the Gilberts took the plane to Mili because AE and FN assumed that they were at or South of Howland's latitude, rather than significantly North, and set course accordingly. (See the chart on page 104.) Nothing in the foregoing discussion assumes anything like a maximum effort at actual "best range speed" toward the end of the flight (which might have been 100-105 mph IAS (not true) at 9000 pounds weight at - what? - 20 odd GPH?). On the contrary, it assumes merely that any pilot who read the POH and thought about the numbers could see the benefits of a further reduction of power and airspeed once normal gross weight was achieved. It's in the book - or at least Report 465 - and there is no reason to assume that AE didn't have access to it. If you will indulge me a little longer, I would like to go back to the table above and its indication of true airspeed during the first 15 hours of the flight. As it happens, we have 3 pieces of information that enable us to cross-check it. The first of these cross-checks is "the Fix" - AE's broadcast of position 7 hours and 20 minutes into the flight. That position is 853 statute miles from Lae. According to our chart, the plane would have covered 910 STILL AIR statute miles in 7 hours, and would be making good a true airspeed in the first part of hour 8 (after the power reduction) of about 138 mph. The range of still air distance from 7 hours to 7 hours 20 minutes is thus 910 to 956 miles. If the fix refers to the 7+20 position, it is 103 miles less than the estimated still air distance (which equates to an average headwind of just over 14 mph). If the fix refers to the position after 7 hours, it is 57 miles less than the estimated still air distance (which equates to an average headwind of just over 8 mph). Either of these estimates is within the plausible range. The second cross-check is the "ship in sight ahead" at 10+30 hours into the flight. Our chart indicates that 1420 still air miles would have been covered in 10 1/2 hours. Assuming (with Roy Blay) that the ship was the USS ONTARIO (1272 miles from Lae), this indicates a shortfall of 148 miles over the 10 1/2 hours, again indicating an average headwind of almost exactly 14 mph. (Slightly off topic: it also tends to indicate that the fix was a 7:20 position. If the fix was position at 7:00, only 419 miles would have been covered in 3 1/2 hours, an average groundspeed of 119.7 mph during a period in the flight in which the average TAS should have been about 145 mph. This would indicate an average headwind during the 3 1/2 hours of 25 mph - certainly not impossible, but at variance with the 8 mph headwind average for the first 7 hours that flows from assuming the fix was at 7:00.) The third cross-check is in AE's LAST FLIGHT (p. 76) and relates to the South Atlantic crossing. Her log entry reads: "Indicated our speed 140 at 5780 feet. Man. Pressure. 26 1/2 rpm 1700 5 1/2 hours out." The power setting is the one KJ intially recommended for 6,000 feet on the Hawaii flight, with a fuel consumption of 49 GPH. An indicated airspeed of 140 at 5780 is equal to about 155 true airspeed. How does that compare with what our chart method leads us to expect? We need to modify our assumptions a bit, because the plane probably carried about 947 gallons on takeoff (same fuel load carried on takeoff for Hawaii and first takeoff for Howland). That is 153 gallons (918 pounds) less than at Lae. Let's assume that the plane also carried some items that were removed at Lae, and estimate that the gross weight was about 14,300 for takeoff. The initial cruise instructions called for 3 hours at 4000 feet and 58 GPH, followed by 3 hours at 49 gph at 6000 feet. Assume consumption in Hour 1 is 100 (or a bit less, considering climb only to 4000) followed by 2 hours at 58 and 2 1/2 hours at 49 gph. This gives fuel consumption of (say) 338 gallons or a bit less. Call it a 2000 pound weight reduction, to 12,300 pounds. Applying the same calculations with reference to the effect of weight on speed used in doing the table gives us a factor of .7887. A fuel consumption of 49 GPH equates roughly to 612 hp (at .48sfc), or 306 per engine. The 10 E cruise chart shows a 300 hp cruise at 6000 feet of 181 and a 350 hp cruise of 190. Call it 182 for 306 hp. Multiply 182 by .7887 and you get 143.5 - not so good a match as we might have hoped. Suppose they carried 900 gallons (deemed sufficient by KJ for a longer flight to an island, not a continent) ? Weight at 5 1/2 hours would be about 12,000 pounds. The speed factor is .8184. Multiplied by 182 that gives 148.9. We're still 6 mph off (4%) the actual airspeed AE said she was getting. Suppose that they had only 100 pounds more cabin load than at Lae, rather than the 200 we estimated. Weight is about 11,900 and the speed factor is .8288. Multiplying 182 by .8288 gives almost 151 and gets us within 3 %. But wait a minute! Let's remember what the stated purpose of the exercise was. It was to make a conservative estimate of the range of the airplane, when flown at settings within its demonstrated capacity but more efficient than the KJ settings later in the flight. Since that is what we started out to do, it should not distress us to find out that the plane might have been slightly faster earlier in the flight than we estimated. That just means that the range was in truth slightly more than we expected, and the plane might have covered 50 to 75 miles more still air distance in the first 15 hours of flight. The question of navigation, I leave for another occasion. **************************************************************************** From Ric So, if the airplane was capable of better performance than could be obtained by following Kelly Johnson's recommendations, why do use suppose he wrote what he did? I can only think of three possibilities: 1. Kelly Johnson was not as sharp as Oscar Boswell. 2. Kelly Johnson understood the limitations of his customer. 3. Kelly Johnson was in on the conspiracy to sabotage the flight. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 11:22:33 EST From: Jim Pearson Subject: AE/FN Movie For information about the " I was Amelia Earhart " movie check out www. upcomingmovies. com. *************************************************************************** From Ric I took a quick look but saw no mention of it. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 11:23:22 EST From: Woody Subject: Re: Search Justification Ric, Devegetation is encouraged by the HPO and no permit is required, just the property owners permission. Otherwise, jungle swallow up sites. Umgawa. And NOBODY looks like FDR! Woody ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 11:25:01 EST From: Woody Subject: Re: Search Justification For Christopher, The devegetation is not done to the roots nor is the ground cover completely removed. I cut paths every 20 feet about 3 feet wide. The interval between trip1 and 2 was 4 months last year and you couldn't find the trip one cuts at all. The Japanese clearcut Taroa for their base operations and introduced several non-native species as did their predecessors, the Germans. In 1970 Steve Achent did EOD and opened up the East-West runway to '3000, He then planted thousands of coconut trees for Tobolar, the govt copra company. As we speak there is a Japanese fishing concession building just finished, a coastal loop road being built, the dock is being reconcreted, the -E-W- runway is being opened up from ocean to lagoon and 800 new natives are moving there in addition to the 150 that already reside. The mosquitoes are horrendous because nobody bothered to fill up the bomb craters that are now filled with stagnant water. What ecosystem? Woody ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 11:38:28 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Evidence >From Alan >Don, perhaps you are alone in this question because most of us >believe the chances of surviving and being found is better from an >island than from 17,000 feet below the ocean's surface'... Rather obvious that no one can survive 17,000 feet beneath the surface of the sea, Professor ! May I also assume then that you are equally convinced there is _no_ circumstance in which the Electra & it's crew could possibly have survived a ditching at sea, even though, admittedly, survival in a raft in the middle of the Central Pacific is highly unlikely for any extended period of time (except for the Rickenbacker crew of course) ? What _is_ plainly obvious, is the fact that no matter _what_ choice AE/FN actually made, they _didn't_ survive & _no_ one has ever found any trace of their properly identifiable remains or that of their aircraft (although I must concede, we haven't yet plumbed the depths of the abyss off the edge of the Gardner/Nikumaroro reef-flat). Additionally, no matter _what_ choice AE/FN ultimately made, the _fact_ remains, the Itasca had _no_ clear idea where they were or which direction they may have headed after their last radio transmission & in fact, _if_ the Niku scenario ultimately proves to be the correct scenario, tragically, the Itasca's Captain apparently never considered that to be (SE) the place to start looking & the US Navy gave up on the Phoenix Chain after a quick aerial look-see failed to reveal (in the Navy's judgement) any visual evidence that the R-T-W flight had terminated on any of the Phoenix Islands. Since you concede that ultimate 'survival' was something that we should, at least, take into consideration, perhaps you might provide us with your own scenario for the prospects AE/FN could have anticipated for their location & rescue from Gardner/Nikumaroro Island, based upon the _factual_ situation that confronted them as they flew SE on the LOP, after failing to locate Howland or Baker Islands, having established _no_ two-way radio communication with Itasca & never having informed Itasca of their intention to seek alternate landfall in the Phoenix Islands, or that they were actually heading in that (SE) direction, in any of the radio transmissions the Itasca actually received & recorded? >The reason some of us are somewhat dogmatic about this is that so far no >one has offered any evidence from the Gilberts or the other Phoenix >Islands and no one has been able to explain or even try to explain how >the Electra could possibly get from Howland to the Marshall Islands. > >Can you supply any of that? I'm not trying to say your ideas have no >merit, Don. I'm certain you believe what you write but I'm missing any >support for them. I may well have skimmed through emails and missed it >so if you don't mind please help me out. >Alan What we seem to have here is a difference of opinion as to just what constitutes 'evidence' . Just as there is _no_ 'evidence' to support any of the _other_ Earhart scenarios, as yet there is _no_ 'evidence' to support the Gardner/Nikumaroro scenario. What has been uncovered during the six TIGHAR expeditions is a vast array of 'artifacts' & 'clues' , many of which are indeed curious & interesting, possibly even of some historic or anthropological significance, in & of themselves. Some also have been identified from the same basic time-frame (1930s) as the Earhart flight, however _none_ have been directly connected to the R-T-W flight, the Electra aircraft or AE/FN. Therefore, (at least in my mind) there is still _no_ preponderence of 'evidence' (actual or circumstantial) to support the TIGHAR scenario, only a preponderence of 'artifacts' & 'clues' that, _if_ such a direct connection can be sustained with the flight, aircraft or crew, _might_ very well provide the 'missing' link or links to the final solution of the Earhart mystery. Frankly, after all these years of reading & considering all the 'so-called' evidence that has been developed for _all_ the various scenarios, I still am willing to be convinced by such a 'preponderence' of what can truly pass muster as 'evidence', but so far _none_ of the scenarios have been able achieve that objective, though, admittedly, TIGHAR's efforts have shown more promise than most. I guess that is what comes with being an incurable, intractable, dull-witted sceptic ! Don Neumann *************************************************************************** From Ric It's the same old problem we've beaten to death before. To some people "evidence" is synonymous with "proof" rather than the dictionary's "tends to prove". So when we talk about the evidence that supports the Niku hypothesis they read it as if we're alleging proof. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 11:39:33 EST From: Don Jordan Subject: Re: mileage & hostages I also note that some researchers will quote, or use, only from "evidence" that supports their theory. Here, the message in the bottle supports the Japanese involvement theory. But the other message in a bottle was not mentioned, because it supports the "Crashed and Sank" theory. If only you could find a message in a bottle on Niku! One that describes the slow death of our famous duo as they watched the search planes fly overhead. Frankly, I don't believe either one of the bottle messages. But if I had to pick one to believe in, it would have to be the "Crashed and Sank" bottle. It's less complicated! Don J. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 13:30:24 EST From: Doug Brutlag Subject: Mileage to Mili Atoll For Daryll Bollinger; What are you using to come up with 240 miles from Niku to Mili Atoll? I could not find the Lat/Long of Mili but I used an Atoll coordinate also in the Marshall Chain, Maloelap which is about 200 or so miles north of Mili-good enough for a ball park estimate. Howland to Maloelap- 867 nautical miles on a 304 deg. True Course Niku to Maloelap- 1170 nautical miles on a 313 True Course While these figures are not exactly to the Mili Atoll I know I'm reasonably close. If you have the Lat/Long of Mili I'll figure it out for you exact mileage/true course. Bottom line: based on these numbers, the fuel capacity of the Electra, and any reasonable estimate of fuel remaining, I'm afraid the Marshall Island diversion isn't plausible. Doug Brutlag #2335 **************************************************************************** From Ric Mili is at 6.08 N / 171.55 E ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 13:31:11 EST From: Dennis McGee Subject: continuing education Woody said about "devegetating" Taroa: "What ecosystem?" Woody, continuing education is a valuable resource for all of us. Here is a site you may want to visit before your assault on Taroa. Some of its concepts and ideas are applicable to that island also. http://www.epa.gov/ LTM, who actually does recycle stuff Dennis O. McGee #0149EC ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 13:31:54 EST From: Tom King Subject: Re: Search Justification For anyone interested, most of the legislation pertinent to Woody's search can be found at http://life.csu.edu.au/marshall/html/RMILAW/RMI_HPO_Law.html Tom King ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 13:43:45 EST From: Oscar Boswell Subject: Re: You can get there from here - fuel for the Gilberts >From Ric > > So, if the airplane was capable of better performance than could be obtained > by following Kelly Johnson's recommendations, why do use suppose he wrote > what he did? I can only think of three possibilities: > 1. Kelly Johnson was not as sharp as Oscar Boswell. > 2. Kelly Johnson understood the limitations of his customer. > 3. Kelly Johnson was in on the conspiracy to sabotage the flight. As usual, there's a fourth and simpler possibility - one that is implicit in KJ's telegrams - he gave AE a program that would enable her to make a 15 hour flight to Hawaii on 900 gallons with a 40% reserve - THERE WAS NO NEED TO STRETCH. (You might remember that they had to slow down to make the flight take 15+47.) Much of that flight would be at weights above normal gross, hence the need for higher power settings. The increased performance below normal gross at lower power settings is not something I figured out, it is in Report 465, the author of which was, of course, Mr. C.L. Johnson. He drew the cruise chart you have that shows what the plane would do. Unfortunately, so far as we know, he never wrote AE a detailed program on the Lae to Howland leg with 1100 gallons, but the point is that he left perfectly clear charts of general application. KJ didn't intend the instructions to have any wider application than the particular flight to Hawaii (as shown by his request in the telegrams that fuel consumption data be sent him so that he could provide advice on other legs). I apologize to all concerned for the messy and garbled table in my posting. It was perfectly square in draft, but something went wrong. I have faxed you a copy of the draft. Oscar **************************************************************************** From Ric I can't fault your logic. Let's suppose that Mr. Johnson (or someone else who was competent to do so) prepared a simple hour-by-hour power management program for Amelia for the Lae/Howland leg. If it was prepared anytime prior to the actual stay in Lae it was probably based upon a full 1,150 gallon fuel load. It would be interesting to see what, in your opinion, that program would look like. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 13:48:23 EST From: Chris Subject: good documentaries/lurkers Does anyone have any recommendations on a good documentary on AE's flight and disappearance, one that goes into detail about the order of events and search for her? I've seen the "American Experience" episode but it was frustratingly vague and didn't go into the search efforts. Anything you can rent out there? Also, I think Dick Pingrey is right on the money about forum members that aren't pilots or highly educated. (I for one). Their particular view of things is needed because from my own experience with people with specialized skills is that sometimes they are so immersed in solving a certain problem that they ignore or miss the obvious and simplest answer.(working with my dad, a commercial 2-way radio tech). I also must commend Ric for the patience he displays for the hundreds of new comers asking the same questions over and over. Chris #2511 **************************************************************************** From Ric I don't know of a good documentary that is commercially available. The most accurate was "Untold Stories - The Search for Amelia Earhart", a two hour show by NBC News Productions that aired in 1992 but it was never offered on videotape. We have a copy but we can only reproduce it for research purposes. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 14:05:37 EST From: Pat Gaston Subject: Gilberts Ric wrote: "The big problem with a return to the Gilberts is fuel AND navigation. You can reverse the procedure that got you to the Howland LOP, i.e. shoot another LOP and advance it back to the Gilberts, but when you get there you don't have any fuel to search along the line." Ric, that's an absolutely fair and reasonable analysis but I'm not sure their fuel would have been >that< low. TIGHAR member Alan Caldwell (who I'm sure will correct me if I'm misquoting him) calculates the distance from Howland to Niku at 390 statute miles, from Howland to the closest Gilberts at 500 sm. At the Electra's normal cruising speed of 150 mph in still air, that's 2 hours, 40 minutes to Niku and 3 hours, 20 minutes to the vicinity of Beru or Arorae. However, assuming normal weather patterns there would have been a tailwind on the westbound trip to the Gilberts. The Monte Carlo analysis assumes a constant eastbound headwind of 25 mph, so let's be conservative and make it a15 mph tailwind on the return flight. That means the Electra could have covered the 500 miles to the vicinity of the Gilberts in three hours flat, for a net difference of 20 minutes aloft between the two hypothetical destinations. Depending on whose fuel calculations you believe and when they made the turn, they could have had as much as an hour's flying time left. Of course there are problems with this scenario, chief among them Earhart's "low on fuel" message at 1912 GMT. But this is as much a problem for the Niku Hypothesis as it is for the Gilberts Hypothesis. We also know that, an hour later, they were still flying "north and south" or "north to south" or something like that on the 157/337 line, but we don't know for how long or how far. As Dick Pingrey has noted, "It would be inconceivable that Amelia and Fred would not have planned for getting to an alternate place to land if they were unable to find Howland." I agree wholeheartedly. Granted, Dick and TIGHAR believe that "alternate place" was Nikumaroro. But the fact remains that in the totality of Earhart lore there is one and only one documented mention of a Plan B, and that document is the Vidal Transcript on file at the University of Wyoming. In this undated interview, Gene Vidal mentions not once but several times that AE's alternate was the Gilberts. Was he just making it up? Not likely. Could AE and FN have changed their alternate based upon the circumstances? Sure. But it's still the only evidence of a Plan B that we have. But wait, the Navy searched the Gilberts, didn't they? Depends on what you call a "search." AP reporter Howard Hanzlik was aboard the Itasca during this phase of the operation. Hanzlik was interviewed by Ron Bright on August 18, 2001, and again by Carol Osborne in September. Here's his description of the Gilberts search effort: "When we got to the Gilberts, the Gilertese natives came aboard but no one could communicate with them about whether they heard a plane or not. The XO picked up a model airplane and zoomed it around over his head. The natives watched, seeemed puzzled, then they started to clap their hands as if they had seen some kind of show." Hanzlik mentioned this humorous incident as an example of the communications problems that plagued the Itasca's search effort. No one aboard spoke Gilbertese and few if any of the Gilbertese spoke English. In light of this firsthand account, one must question how effective the Navy's efforts really were. It is true that subsequent searches of the Gilberts by the British and FDR pal Vincent Astor turned up nothing. Subsequent searches of the Phoenix Group also turned up nothing. In the final analysis the question isn't whether AE and FN reached the Gilberts, but whether they >thought< they could reach the Gilberts -- a question that can only be answered by AE and FN themselves. Certainly they could have (and most likely did) fall short, just as they could have headed for Niku and fallen short. Given Vidal's recollections, however, it's probable that the "Gilberts option" was at least considered -- and that's why some of us think it's worthy of consideration by TIGHAR as well. Has TIGHAR combed the files to determine whether there were reports of unidentified aircraft wreckage in the Gilberts during the pre-war years? LTM Pat Gaston Kansas City **************************************************************************** From Ric When Kenton Spading and I were in England in 1998 we spent a week combing though the records of the WPHC looking for anything that might possibly relate to the Earhart disappearance. For every file that we copied we probably looked at twenty. For every twenty that we had pulled and actually looked at there were probably 200 that we rejected on the basis of the file name. I can assure you that had there been a file entitled "Wreckage, airplane...finding of on Arorae" or anything remotely like that, we would have jumped at it. The really remarkable thing was how anomalous File No. M.P. 4439 --1940 "Skeleton Human --- finding of on Gardner Island" was. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 14:24:12 EST From: Claude Stokes Subject: synonyms This is a true story,, no lie,, when I put the words "don neuman" in my bookshelf thesarus, this is what popped out at me. So help me Myrtle, swear on a bible, this is no lie,, Now every time I read one of those posts Ill have a clear understanding of just what Im dealing with,, I think during the nighrt when Amelia was flying fhru the rain, here fuel gauges actually increased in quantity, therefore, making it possible for her to continue the flight all the way to California,, regards,, the Stoker error, erroneousness, wrongness, unsoundness silliness, absurdity untruth, unreality, nonobjectivity falsity, unfactualness, nonhistoricity, nonexistence errancy, straying from the truth, inexactitude, deviation inaccuracy, logical error, fallacy, self-contradiction, sophism creedal error, misbelief, unorthodoxy, heterodoxy mists of error, wrong ideas, old wives' tales, superstition, vulgar error, popular misconception, ignorance liability to error, fallibility, misjudgment subjective error, subjectivity, unrealism, mistaken belief, wishful thinking, doublethink, self-deceit, self-deception misunderstanding, misconception, misconstruction, cross-purposes, misinterpretation misguidance, misteaching bad memory, forgetfulness, oblivion falseness, untruthfulness, falsehood illusion, hallucination, mirage, visual fallacy false pregnancy, pseudocyesis false light, false dawn, disappointment mental error, delusion, mental disorder flattering hope, dream, pipe dream, fantasy false impression, wrong idea (see mistake) warped notion, prejudice, bias *************************************************************************** From Ric Must be a different guy. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 14:25:23 EST From: Oscar Boswell Subject: Re: You can get there from here - fuel for the Gilberts > It would be interesting to see what, in your opinion, that program would look > like. I'll be glad to do it, but I probably won't have the chance to look at it until the weekend. Give me 10 days. Oscar ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 14:27:51 EST From: Dale Intolubbe, Rathdrum, Idaho Subject: Re: mileage & hostages It looks as if the 400 nautical miles was interpreted as kilometers and using .6 miles/ kilometer the figure 240 was derived. Dale Lurker # xxxx ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 14:33:53 EST From: Mike Holt Subject: The Gilberts > Has TIGHAR combed the files to determine whether there were reports of > unidentified aircraft wreckage in the Gilberts during the pre-war years? Were there any reports of identified aircraft wreckage? What was done when an airplane crashed? > The really remarkable thing was how anomalous File No. > M.P. 4439 --1940 "Skeleton Human --- finding of on Gardner Island" was. This suggests to me that finding human skeletons probably didn't rate its very own page in the policy manual. Did airplanes get any coverage? Or, stated slightly differently, were aircraft wrecks filed with the RAF or the RN, instead of with a civil agency? **************************************************************************** From Ric Mike, Mike, Mike...there weren't any airplanes out there in those years, let alone airplane wrecks. And believe me, the finding of a human skeleton was a big deal. The vast majority of the files deal with mundane administrative matters. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 14:34:59 EST From: Claude Stokes Subject: Re: Mileage to Mili Atoll these are the numbers I calculate for Mili at 6.08n/171.55e from mili to howland is 988sm heading of 269 and from mili to niku is 1248sm heading of 268,, the stoker ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 14:48:22 EST From: Angus Murray Subject: Re: SE on the LOP > Perhaps you'd like to accept Bob Brandenburg's "Essential Questions" > challenge and show just how you'd get from an unknown position on the 157/337 > LOP to Canton Island? It has often been argued that Noonan only missed Howland by a short distance, maybe 10miles. AE certainly said "we must be on you" so seemed fairly sure of their position. Consequently their position was not unknown, merely unconfirmed because they couldn't see Howland. You might equally argue that they couldn't navigate to any landfall once their instantaneous position was calculated rather than known. In short, they had a DR position and they knew Canton's position. They might have guessed their position was at least 5 miles wrong (because they couldn't see Howland) but a 5 mile error in known position in transit to a destination would be of no consequence. They "knew" their present position from DR. They would have merely assumed their DR position for Howland was correct and flown a DR bearing for Canton, taken a new sun sight and arrived at a new LOP on which to search for Canton, in just the same way as they searched for Howland. They could even have maintained their original bearing in approaching Howland and advanced the 157-337 LOP by the appropriate flying time for it to intersect Canton, although this would have made the route considerably longer. This always assumes they had enough fuel which seems unlikely. There is also the argument that if their navigation to Howland was insufficiently accurate to allow them to find it, they were no more likely to find Canton as they were using the same calculations in part. This would obviously also apply to Niku. Why fly to somewhere even further away than Howland when your chance of finding it is even less (due to compounding navigational errors)? You would have to rely on errors cancelling out, which is most unlikely. Let us suppose they flew north on the LOP x miles from Howland, then turned south and flew until they were x miles south of Howland. Since they had not found it at this stage, they may have thought they ought to be closer to Niku than Howland with insufficient fuel to fly north again and so pressed on SSW for Niku. If they were on the 337 LOP through Howland, they would have missed Niku by about 20 miles. They might have seen it from that distance or could have earlier corrected course to put them over Niku. Finding it meant that their DR to Howland was essentially accurate. The implication of a landing at Niku is that either they were close to Howland but did not see it or their deviation from their intended course on the LOP due to drift exactly compensated for their (large) original DR error in estimating their position at Howland. Since we know Noonan was a good navigator, this suggests the former scenario is more likely. Once we agree that Niku was found by navigation, not a combination of cancelling errors, we see that Noonan really did know essentially where he was and given enough fuel, a landfall at Canton would have been every bit as possible as at Niku. Regards Angus **************************************************************************** From Ric It has, as you say, often been argued that Noonan missed Howland by only a few miles but it has also been argued (by me, among others) that he probably missed it by quite a bit - perhaps as much as 100 miles. The only way he's going to know for sure where he is is by spotting an island he can identify or getting a second LOP once the sun has moved enough to give him a decent cut across his original LOP. By that time (about 10:30 in the morning) if he has flown SE down the LOP, he has come far enough that it doesn't make any sense to do anything but head for Gardner. ========================================================================= Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 14:54:00 EST From: Cam Warren Subject: Re: Evidence > So when we talk about the evidence that supports the Niku hypothesis > they read it as if we're alleging proof. TIGHAR continues to sidestep the obvious, claiming the "splash down" proponents (comprised of a long list of very credible individuals and organizations) can't possibly be right, because they can produce no supporting "evidence". NO credible "proof", "evidence" or "clues" have surfaced to support the notion that the Electra ever reached dry land (nor floated long enough for the crew to be rescued by the Japanese). So what's a reasonable (no, let's say convincing) alternative? How about the bottom of a very big ocean?? Cam Warren (another of the dull-witted crowd, who doesn't believe "the check is in the mail"). *************************************************************************** From Ric All you're saying is that you don't find TIGHAR's clues convincing and you find the people who share your opinion credible. So, what else is new? ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 10:19:34 EST From: Ross Devitt Subject: Re: Essential Questions.. > From Ric > > Look, Earhart could have gone down at sea - we all acknowledge that - but I > really don't see how constructing imagined scenarios about how she might > have tried to get hither and yon before hitting the drink will accomplish > anything except burning bandwidth. Crashed and Sank is not a testable > hypothesis. The Niku Hypothesis is. My entire point was that I believe she had sufficient fuel NOT to have gone down at sea. I don't believe she headed for the Gilberts, hence my mention of clues found at Niku and NONE at the Gilberts. Th' WOMBAT ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 10:29:34 EST From: Ross Devitt Subject: Re: SE on the LOP > From Dick Pingrey > > Don, just a couple of quick points. I think Amelia's "Flying on the > line 337 - 153" statement was a clear message of her plan to follow that > line to the southwest. Ummm, according log jam, the transcript was "we are on the line 157 337 we will rept msg.... we are running on line" If we follow the numbers for a direction we are going the wrong way! Might even be the reason the Itasca headed off to the NW. Th' WOMBAT **************************************************************************** From Ric "We are on the line 157 337" is merely a statement of position. What makes you think that the order in which she said the numbers revealed her direction of travel? ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 10:30:15 EST From: Ross Devitt Subject: No Subject > From Paul in Menlo Park, CA #2421 > > I came across an Earhart biography in my local library titled "East to > the Dawn" by Susan Butler, copy write 1997. I mention it because I did > not see it in the bios list on the web site. If you do a search on the net you'll be able to download quite a few pages from the book. Makes entertaining reading if nothing else. Th' WOMBAT ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 10:37:14 EST From: Angus Murray Subject: Re: SE on the LOP > Finding it meant that their DR to Howland was essentially accurate. PS By this I mean - Finding it meant that their DR from Lae to the LOP was essentially accurate. ( so accurate navigation to a new LOP through Canton should be possible) Regards Angus. *************************************************************************** From Ric They didn't DR from Lae to the LOP. They DRed from Lae to the general vicinity of Howland with occasional checks during the night using celestial observations. They got the LOP at dawn and advanced it (by DR) through Howland but they had no way of knowing where they were on the LOP and when they reached the advanced LOP and did not see Howland they had no way of knowing whether they were north or south of where they wanted to be. You can't DR to a specific point from an unknown point. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 10:38:10 EST From: Doug Brutlag Subject: Mileage To Mili Gracias for the Mili Lat/ Long Ric. Based on the numbers I calculate Howland to Mili- 757 nautical miles/295 deg. true course Niku to Mili- 1039 nautical miles/308 deg. true course and for those just recently joining the forumite crowd-Howland to Niku-351 nautical miles/159 deg. true course. For those non-aviators in the forum, bear in mind 1 nautical mile equates to 1.15 statute miles and 1.852 kilometers. Doug Brutlag #2335 ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 10:40:25 EST From: Dick Pingrey Subject: Oscar Boswell's Fuel Calculations Oscar is right about the fact that airplane was capable of better fuel performance. To fly the airplane at max range would mean constant power setting adjustments and changing airspeed and altitude with airplane weight changes. The fuel consevation by flying the airplane that way was probably not considered to be worth the effort it required as it would not be a major fuel saving over Johnson's recomendations. If the 10E had a 24 hours endurance at Kelly Johnson's fuel setting and the flight time to Howland was estimated to be 20 hours the 4 hour reserve was sufficient for most anticipated situations including stronger then normal headwinds. Remember they were counting on radio direction finding equipment for the final heading corrections to bring them to Howland. Kelly Johnson's recomendations would get them close to Howland with sufficient fuel to fly along the Line of Position and eventually to an alternate. Perhaps flying at max range would get them back to the Gilberts but that was not their goal. There goal was Howland. Landing any other place was a disaster for the purpose of the around the world record. Even Gardner was a disaster and to be avoided unless it was down to a choice of ditching or landing in the Phoenix group. The only plan that got them to the Line of Position for Howland and then allowed them to fly on that line with the probability of finding Howland was the one they apparently selected (as proven by Amelia's last radio message about flying on the line 157 - 337). Returning to the Gilberts destroyed their opportunity to search for Howland on the line of position. It was not, in my opinion, a practicle option. Dick Pingrey in Selah 908C ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 10:44:20 EST From: Kenton Spading Subject: Bones, Sextants, Dumps Ross Devitt wrote: >The main point as I see it is that shortly after Earhart and Noonan >disappeared, a skeleton was confirmed as being found that possibly had the >remains of a European female's shoes in a place where no European (using the >term to discriminate between native and whatever) female should have been. The Niku skeleton and alleged female shoes are certainly compelling evidence. I am not discounting them. However, context is important. As a reminder, the Brits/natives also found a skeleton on Henderson Island. They actually found more than one skeleton...possibly a family. Like the Niku/Gardner skeleton, evedence suggested that at least one of the skeletons was that of a female. A pathologist from Fiji examined some hair from the skeletons and concluded they were likely Europeans. So, the Brits were 2 for 2 when it came to finding what appeared to be european female skeletons on remote islands where logically no european females should have been. Gallagher and others guessed that some of the shoe parts, found in a So. Pacific environment, were from a female's shoes based on their experiences with western fashion...i.e. a biased opinion...something we are all subject to. >There was also evidence that a box that once contained a sextant was found. > A sextant box is not the sort of thing usually left lying around on an >island. I often wondered if this came from the Norwich City, but as anyone >who has researched sextants would have found, they were very expensive, and >any sextants on board would certainly have been recovered by the N.C. >survivors. It is not hard to imagine that the master/captain loaded his sextant into the life boat before abandoning ship. However, the life boats were all capsized so it easily could have been lost (and most likely was) and later the box could have washed up on the island. The Norwich City remains a viable source for some of the non-aircraft evidence (like the sextant box) that have been found on the island. >Another thought. Somewhere on the island there has to be "the local dump". >It is amazing what you can find going through 20+ years of other people's >garbage. I'd imagine that has been one of Tom King's priorities. (As an >archaeologist - not as a garbage collector). I believe I have heard of "dump archaeology". I imagine it analagous to Tom King's recent notes on "household archaeology". Veryl Fenalson mentioned to me one time that he found a dump on Niku. Why have we not considered poking around in the Niku dump? Tom? Ric? Years ago when I was in the escavating business I dug some trenches through an old dump and indeed you do find interesting stuff. LTM Kenton Spading St. Paul, MN *************************************************************************** From Ric I am not aware of any "dump" on Niku. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 10:48:45 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: SE on the LOP Ric, one of the misconceptions some folks have is thinking there was ONLY one LOP and thus they have trouble contemplating the navigation scenarios. Of course there is no reason to believe Noonan never took another sun shot after projecting his sun line through where he thought Howland was. He would have been using every navigational tool and technique at his disposal right up until either sighting land or running out of gas or being spirited away in mid air by the Japanese. Alan #2329 **************************************************************************** From Ric Perhaps, but the only LOP we know about for sure is the one AE specifically mentioned, and the only time Noonan could have gotten that LOP was at dawn. There is also the point that, once they have descended below the scattered cloud deck to look for Howland, getting further sun shots might have been very difficult if not impossible. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 10:49:26 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: Evidence > NO credible "proof", "evidence" or "clues" have surfaced to support the > notion that the Electra ever reached dry land (nor floated long enough > for the crew to be rescued by the Japanese). So what's a reasonable (no, > let's say convincing) alternative? > How about the bottom of a very big ocean?? Cam, you might be right. Maybe they did "splash down." If so what would you suggest should be the next step? Alan #2329 ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 10:53:22 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: Evidence > Rather obvious that no one can survive 17,000 feet beneath the surface > of the sea, Professor ! May I also assume then that you are equally > convinced there is _no_ circumstance in which the Electra & it's crew > could possibly have survived a ditching at sea, even though, admittedly, > survival in a raft in the middle of the Central Pacific is highly > unlikely for any extended period of time (except for the Rickenbacker > crew of course) ? Don, you misread my posting. What I was trying to point out is that if they reached land there is a continuing point to the search but if they sank into the ocean this deal is over and we go on with life. If anyone thinks AE and the Electra currently reside on the bottom of the ocean I don't understand why they would participate in any further discussion. It seems pointless. As to what AE's reasoning could have been on how anyone could ever find them neither I nor anyone else could possibly have a clue. If I had to guess I would say they felt if they were on dry land anywhere there was a chance someone might figure it out but if they crashed and sank no one would ever know what happened to them. Do I think the plane would float for a significant time? I doubt it. Not with those P&W 1340s on the front end. And that's assuming they made a graceful and gentle ditching. Here's another thought. Let's say they decided to ditch. How would anyone know where in all that ocean to look? But on the other hand let's say they decided dry land was a safer alternative. Where would the rescuers have to look? Ten specific points of land. Howland, Baker, Gardner, Canton, Enderbury, Rawaki, Manra, Birnie, and Orano. Now if you were lost in the South Pacific would you want the searchers to be searching thousands or even hundreds of square miles of ocean or ten specific points of land? I'll pick land. Now for all the number crunchers let me once again set out some locations and distances. The lat/long data is from the CIA. Please note it is in decimal form. Hopefully the CIA knows. The distances are great circle route distances as computed by Drexel University. I am giving both statute and nautical distances. I could care less about kilometers. Howland Island is at 0.80 degrees North and 176.63 degrees West Mili Atoll is at 6.13 degrees North and 176.98 degrees East Niku is at 4.75 degrees South and 174.76 degrees West Arorae is 2.65 degrees South and 176.90 degrees East For those who would rather fuss than bother to look up the distances they are as follows. From Howland to Niku is 405.0531 Statute miles and 351.9877 Nautical miles. From Howland to Arorae is 507.0613 Statute miles and 440.6320 Nautical miles. From Howland to Milli Atoll is 868.2621 Statute miles and 754.5124 Nautical miles. Give or take. Now for those who want to argue about tail winds please explain to me how anyone would know what the winds were going to be over a 500 nm course hours after having traversed it and explain to me why you would bet your life on it when your fuel was low and you had no reasonable way to navigate to the west. I apologize again for getting frustrated but I try to think logically and I have difficulty with theories that rely on impossibilities or utter stupidity by AE and FN. For those who somehow have missed it my take is that it is not possible to get the Electra to the Marshalls and no one will even attempt a rationale for that theory. If the airplane crashed into the sea there is no reason for any of us to be here. There is no location and it is not a testable theory. For those who want to pin down a logical location in the ocean to search let me remind you that once the Electra broke ground at Lae, New Guinea and faded out of sight there is not one living soul now or at any time that knew where the plane was at any given moment except AE and FN and they weren't absolutely certain. If they tried for dry land there are some obvious and limited places to actually look. Game is still open. If you want to argue TIGHAR's "evidence" is merely "artifacts" So be it. Tell me what "artifacts" have been found on any other Phoenix or Gilbert Island. Alan #2329 ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 10:54:43 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: Preponderence of Evidence > Dull witted lout that I am, I still prefer the terms: 'artifacts & > clues', Again, Don what artifacts and clues do you have that our dynamic duo went anywhere else? Alan #2329 ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 10:55:33 EST From: Alan Caldwell Subject: Re: Devegetate? > Have you thought of using fire? Dennis, where have you been all this time? I wish I had thought of this. We've been wasting our time digging in the sand when all we needed to do was burn down all the Marshall, Phoenix and Gilbert Islands. We might need a bunch or warships over there just in case some of those folks took exception. (I know you were jesting but it was too funny to pass up) Sorry Woody. Alan #2329 ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 11:01:35 EST From: Jim Pearson Subject: AE/FN Movie Oops, not enough information. To get to the "I Was Amelia Earhart " page go to www. upcomingmovies. com. Click on by title, look under the letter " I " then the movie is listed in the 2003 column, click on the listing to go to the page! Whew ! My apologies to those who couldn't find it. Finding Amelia is never an easy task. *************************************************************************** From Ric Thanks Jim. Bottom line: the film is going nowhere. Let's hope it stays there. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 11:33:35 EST From: Lawrence Subject: Fuel comsumption All this talk about fuel comsumption/management has raised several questions. 1. In Lae, 1100 gallons of fuel were put on board the Electra. For the sake of simplicity it does not matter if they were U. S. gallons or Imperial gallons. If the capacity of the tanks were 1150 gallons, do I understand correctly AE landed in Lae with only50 gallons left in fuel cells? Second: If AE manage her fuel comsumption to the maximun, and the weather conditions were most favorable, how far South could she have flown on the LOP before ditching? Taking into account she did not run North and South along the LOP and did not circle, but turned directly South without hesitation. The same question for how far North could she have flown? Thanks **************************************************************************** From Ric They were U.S. gallons and it does make a difference. For an expalantion of why th aircraft carried 1100 gallons see The Chater Report http://www.tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Documents/Chater_Report.html Applying Kelly Johnson's figures (and, as we've seen recently, these are probably conservative), the flight "should" have had about 4 hours of fuel remaining when Earhart was last heard from at 08:43. How far that would get her depends, of course, on her airspeed, altitude, and the wind - but if you draw a 450 nautical mile circle around Howland that is lopsided a bit to the west and northwest (to allow for the east southeasterly winds) you'll have a pretty good idea of all the places where the flight could have ended up. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 11:35:00 EST From: Andrew McKenna Subject: Plan B Pat Gaston said <> Carrington in his book quotes Mantz, or at least relates that Mantz told him directly, that for the planning of the East to West Hawaii - Howland first attempt, they considered the Phoenix islands as their alternate. Carries about as much weight at the Vidal story. They'd have been crazy not to have looked at all the options. All these stories are probably true. Andrew McK in Boulder CO ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 11:36:29 EST From: Woody Subject: Re: Devegetate? For Dennis, I hope you read my earlier reply. I dont do anything without consulting with the state archaeologist at the HPO( Leslie Meade), the Irooj or the property owner. I have no interest in removing artifacts or digging without a permit. These people live on less than $800 a year per capita income. I pay them more than anyone else except ironically, the Japanese. On the last trip I gave away over 800 pounds of clothing and household goods that was donated, I paid the postage and inter-island air freight out of my pocket, over $1000.No one was wearing anything with a hole in it when I left. Even got a couple of marrige proposals! My point is that I am as concerned for the locals welfare as I am in doing a dig. They are a really frendly and happy group of people. As for how long it takes to do a hand held survey, you really need to see the island before you make a time judgement. Several of the areas that I have looked at are devoid of any vegetation. Many others are just sawgrass that will flatten under the equipment and pop up after you go by. If you think I am going to mess up the ecosystem, well-everyone there has a machete ! Woody ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 11:38:29 EST From: Woody Subject: Re: Mileage to Mili Atoll Doug , Ric, thats the middle of the lagoon. The southernmost tip of Mili Atoll is 5.58 N and172.07 E Its also the farthest island east in the atoll chain. Woody ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 11:44:47 EST From: Stuart in Santiago, Chile Subject: Yet another AE flight re-creation FWIW, this little snippet was in AVWeb's bi-weekly newsletter this morning: "TAKE A WARM COAT: Remember that pilot who flew from Maryland's Montgomery County Airpark to the North Pole in an open-cockpit aircraft in 2000? Well, if you want to know more about the chills and thrills, and you'll be near Baltimore on February 7, you can hear it from the horse's mouth. Gus McLeod will talk about his journey to the North Pole at Baltimore-Washington International Airport. McLeod will also discuss his next venture -- a trip around the world in a Lockheed Electra like the one Amelia Earhart took on her ill-fated final flight. Why spoil a good adventure with modern conveniences? For more information call 410- 859-7229. No charge for the enlightenment." **************************************************************************** From Ric Oh brother.....just for the fun of it I called the number. It's the Maryland State Aviation something-or-other and the number is for people who want to attend an upcoming Black History event. I left a message for Gus McLeod. I'll let you know if he calls. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 11:46:47 EST From: Denise Subject: This wouldn't be the good Father himself, would it? Jim Tierney of Simi Valley, CA - representing the Lone Lurkers Non-Association - you wouldn't happen to be the self-same Father Jim Tierney of the Columban Father's Missionary Group, are you? LTM (who remembers Father Jim with great fondness) Denise ************************************************************************** From Ric C'mon Jim. 'Fess up. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 12:04:28 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Uninhabited Gilberts >From Ric, > >The Gilbert Islands had been under British rule since 1892 and were >part of a well-established and closely administered colonial system. >None of the islands was uninhabited'... Would you be able to provide the source for your claim that _none_ of the Gilbert Islands were uninhabited in 1937 ? If _all_ of those islands were inhabited, it might presuppose that they _all_ had an adequate fresh water source, even the smallest of the outlying atolls & islands of the group. I'm well aware that there was a serious problem of overcrowding on the _main_, larger islands in the chain in the late 30s, however I've not been able to find any source that documents the fact that _all_ the islands were inhabited in 1937. By the way, on the lighter side, here are a couple of websites promoting AE theatrical offerings, including 'plugs' for the TIGHAR organization: NPC Theatre Dept. presents one-woman play "Amelia Lives" Address:http://www.northland.cc.az.us/news/Pages%20folder/Amelia.html Changed:10:23 AM on Monday, October 15, 2001 But Can She Bake A Cake Address:http://www.ex.ac.uk/drama/shows/canshebakeacake.html Don Neumann **************************************************************************** From Ric My maps show 16 atolls in the Gilberts group. I don't know which of them you would consider to be "outlying" but all of them have been the subject of considerable scholarship. If you're really interested in pursuing your hypothesis I would suggest that you read "Tungaru Traditions - Writings on the Atoll Culture of the Gilbert Islands" by Arthur Francis Grimble, edited by H.E. (our own Harry) Maude. University of Hawaii Press, 1989. I think you'll find that not only has each of the atolls been populated for hundreds of years, but there is surprising cultural variation from atoll to atoll. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 12:06:08 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Personalized Thesaurus? >From Claude Stokes >This is a true story,, no lie,, when I put the words "don neuman" in >my bookshelf thesarus, this is what popped out at me. So help me Myrtle, >swear on a bible, this is no lie,, Now every time I read one of those >posts Ill have a clear understanding of just what Im dealing with',, Claude, My father always said: 'I don't care what you write about me, just be sure you spell my name right !' It's a double 'n' on the end, Claude! By the way, where did find that personalized Thesaurus, does it also have a listing for 'Claude Stokes' ?... How about Amelia & Fred ? In all good humor... <:-) Don Neumann ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 12:07:14 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Re: apology >From Alan Caldwell >Don, I reread my response to you and I sounded too harsh. I >apologize. Some things just get frustrating after awhile. I meant no >disrespect to you or your opinions'... >Alan >#2329 Hardly any need to apologize, after all this _is_ an open forum for discussion & expression of opinions (within reason of course), just consider today's entry from my good friend Claude Stokes... seems as though you'd have a very long way to go to top that ! Don Neumann ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 12:45:21 EST From: Hal Banks Subject: Search for an Earhart Flight Simulator For the past 3 or 4 years I've enjoyed following the search for AE/FN on the TIGHAR website and the Forum Highlights. I've often thought that a flight simulation of their last flight would go a long way to help me understand some of the problems regarding navigation, environmental conditions, fuel management, distances/geography, etc. involved in that fatal flight. So, does anyone know of a PC flight simulator that includes the Electra and that part of the world in detail? If not, could there be a potential source of funds for TIGHAR if such a simulator could be developed (pro bono, of course, by some talented programmers in the forum!)? Keep up the good work, Hal Banks *************************************************************************** From Ric I few weeks ago I provided some 10E specs to a group (not a company, just a bunch of Sim enthusiasts) who are putting together such a simulation but I didn't save the address - sorry. We've often thought that a good simulation would be a lot of fun and a good way to show people the realities of the situation (Wanna go to the Marshalls? Fine. Try it.) but a really good simulation would be very labor intensive to construct and a less than very good simulation would be worse than none at all. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 12:52:29 EST From: Christopher Ferro Subject: Re: Evidence I think what many of "us" don't realize (though I do), is that the WHOLE POINT of the Niku investigation is to see IF it is indeed where AE, FN and the Electra ended up. It may be that eventually we find that there is NO evidence of it and THAT'S FINE. The WHOLE POINT is to FIND OUT. We can't do that if we don't investigate. Just because we are searching in one spot doesn't mean that they HAD to have landed there. That's the whole point of hypothesis testing. LTM, Christopher Ferro (From Wheeling, despite my best efforts) **************************************************************************** From Ric Chris is right but I'll also say that we'd have to be nuts not to check out another hypothesis if one emerged that looked as good or better than Niku and was testable. So far, that hasn't happened. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 12:53:39 EST From: Tom King Subject: Re: Bones, Sextants, Dumps I'm not aware of a dump on Niku, either. Veryl, are you holding out on us? If there is one, it would be very interesting to investigate. What archeologists do most of the time is dig into garbage; you can learn a lot. See http://bara.arizona.edu/gs.htm for the application of archeological methods to contemporary garbage. I've often wondered why we haven't found a dump on Niku. Elsewhere in Micronesia a lot of stuff just gets disposed of by tossing it into the bush, a carryover from the days when almost everything was biodegradable, but informal dumps tend to accumulate, and considering how organized things were in the Niku colony I'd expect dumping to be, too. If there IS a dump, we ought to take a good hard look at it. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 12:58:27 EST From: Chris in Petaluma Subject: Nauticos update This is a response I just got from Nauticos if your interested. Chris #2511 ----- Original Message ----- From: Lynn Jourdan To: Chris Strohmeyer Cc: Webmaster@nauticos.com Sent: Thursday, January 31, 2002 5:30 AM Subject: Re: update Thanks for your interest. You are right, we have not been updating our website with info on our Amelia project, but it is moving forward. We are just finishing the planning stages of our mission. We have done all the renav analysis, have identified a large search area and hope to get on site in the spring for a three month operation. The team will do a sonar search by towing NOMAD, our search system on a specially made fiber optic cable that is 6 miles long in a pattern sometimes referred to as "mowing the lawn." They will make note of sonar targets, but keep going without investigating them until the search pattern is complete. Then they will send out the ROV (remotely operated vehicle) equipped with lights and cameras to investigate the most likely targets. It is important to be disciplined and finish a search area before taking the time to bring in the sonar and deploy the ROV. Otherwise, much time is lost and an area is not thoroughly searched. Many different disciplines have been used in our planning stage. Collins Radio has been involved in determining the radio strength and distances of the last messages heard from Amelia Earhart. Fuel analysis has been done by professors at Cal. Tech to determine the exact range of fuel that the Electra would have had given the weather, wind speed, and altitude that day. Navigation experts here at Nauticos have been working on determining the navigation errors that complicate navigation at sea. Elgen Long, a pilot who circumnavigated the globe in 1961 has been studying the disappearance of the Earhart plane for many years and is our partner. He has written a fascinating book: "Amelia Earhart, The Mystery Solved." I will add you to our list of people to notify as we make progress and will send you an email when we have a new newsletter on our website. The first mission, planned for late winter, will only be to search and take photographs. We would then return at a future date to make a thorough record of the site that would be used to carefully plan how to best recover the plane. A big part of the project would be the photo documentation of the site without disturbing it. Only after that was complete would we recover any artifacts and the plane. We plan an intensive restoration to slowly remove the salt water before we display the plane and eventually donate it to a museum. Thanks again for your interest! Lynn **************************************************************************** From Ric Very interesting. I'll see if I can get some more details. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 13:05:25 EST From: Daryll Bolinger Subject: Autograph please...? tap tap tap.........excuse me,....EXCUSE ME,......I don't mean to interrupt (I get the Forum digest). I just came back to say thank you for the compliment and ask for your autograph. >it would have taken a "Bolinger Class" conspiracy to keep that >information away from the searchers." >LTM >Ric HEY GUYS.......Ric CAN recognize the truth when he trips over it ! Daryll ************************************************************************** From Ric Just trying to recognize the meretricious character of your research. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 13:17:35 EST From: DAVE BUSH Subject: Re: SE on the LOP >From Ric >They didn't DR from Lae to the LOP. They DRed from Lae to the general >vicinity of Howland with occasional checks during the night using celestial >observations. They got the LOP at dawn and advanced it (by DR) through >Howland but they had no way of knowing where they were on the LOP and when >they reached the advanced LOP and did not see Howland they had no way of >knowing whether they were north or south of where they wanted to be. You >can't DR to a specific point from an unknown point. Wouldn't the celestial shots taken by Noonan at night (right up until dawn) have given them their position in a fairly accurate and acceptable range? For an experienced and capable navigator, what is the largest variance that would be expected - +/- 20 miles? What I'm asking is: once you take several celestial shots and do the math and come up with a lat/long - how close to the position can you expect to be given the potential errors due to motion, equipment accuracy, etc. Thus given an "accurate" LOP taken at dawn, Fred could expect to be how close/far to Howland. Put another way. Given the LOP reported by Earhart and supposing that it was taken at dawn by Noonan, and say that they were exactly on course from Lae to Howland, what would have been their exact (+/- standard error) position at dawn? How far from Howland would they have been and how long would it have taken them to fly that distance? Is all of that info posted anywhere on the website in that format? LTM, Dave Bush **************************************************************************** From Ric I really do have to find the time to put up on the website an explanation of the navigation situation facing AE and FN that morning. Noonan could have expected to establish an LOP that was accurate to within 30 miles (10 miles if he was lucky). But that only gave him information about where he was on the East/West axis. The accuracy of his position North/South depended entirely upon how well he had guessed the wind based upon whatever multiple star fixes he had been able to obtain during the night. In a nutshell, he was confident that he was pretty close East/West wise but could only hope that he was close North/South wise. When Howland did not appear over the nose, all he know was that he was not where he thought he was and he was either too far north or too far south - but which way and how far he could only guess. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 13:19:55 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Transmissions >She was telling the world what she was planning to do. Had she been >in two way communications with the Coast Guard she may have sent much >more information on what she was doing but she didn't know if they could >hear her or not. We don't know that she didn't try to transmit her >position and her intent to land on Gardner once they reached the island. >All we know is that no one heard her send that message'... >Dick Pingrey 908C Dick, Can't disagree with the _possibility_ that AE _did_ attempt to transmit after the 8:43 transmission, however the Itasca never received any such transmission. Considering the fact that she commented upon her fuel situation ('Gas is running low') & seems to be alluding that they _should_ have been able to _see_ Howland ('we must be on you but cannot see you') an hour before her _last_ received/recorded transmission, (the LOP & radio frequency change message & after the _only_ acknowledgement of having received _any_ of Itasca's transmissions) it just seems (to me anyway) _that_ would have been the _most_ opportune time to mention any plans about seeking alternate landfall, since their prospects for locating Howland, within the constraints of their fuel reserve, appeared to be getting dimmer & dimmer. Since no one can claim to know _exactly_ why Itasca never heard from AE again, we can only speculate upon what she might have transmitted. Strangely, _none_ of the post-flight termination messages (none of which has never been proven valid) ever provided any clue as to their location, other than ambiguous/vague descriptions & Longitude/Latitude numbers, subject to various interpretations. If AE's reference to the LOP & their 'running North & South' was intended as any 'clue' as to their intentions, it surely fell on the wrong ears & as to whether she might have failed to include such intentions, because she wasn't sure anone would hear them, I seem to recall a 'quote' she issued after flying across the desolate African landscape, that she never-the-less _continued_ her position report transmissions, on the half-hour, even though she doubted anyone was there to hear such transmissions. Don Neumann ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 13:28:42 EST From: Roger Kelley Subject: The duump... Kenton Spading suggested that a search of the Niku village dump might produce valuable artifacts relating to Earhart's disappearance. Ric responded that he was not aware of any "dump" on Niku. I ask the following: 1) Does TIGHAR have knowledge of, or are there any indications of a "village dump" on Niku? 2) If so, have previous expiditions targeted the "dump" for examination and possible excavation? LTM, Roger Kelley **************************************************************************** From Ric No knowledge of dump, no indications of village dump, no targeting of dump, no dump - at least none that Tom King and I are aware of. Kenton is under the impression that Veryl Fenlason came upon something that he felt was a dump on one of the expeditions he was on (Veryl was along on the first five trips, all but this last one.) I have a hunch that the place he is talking about might be a place in the "new village" where there was quite a bit of discarded radio stuff that we reasoned might have been taken from the Loran station after it was abandoned, but it wasn't a "dump" in the sense of being a place where a variety of junk was pitched. I'm sure Veryl will clarify what he is referring to. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 13:30:13 EST From: Don Neumann Subject: Bolinger Class conspiracies >Had Earhart and/or Noonan washed up on any of the atolls of the >Gilberts it would have taken a Bollinger Class conspiracy to keep that >information away from the searchers. >Ric Is that the _same_ reason the Brits never told the Americans about the 'bones' discovery by Mr. Gallagher on Gardner/Nikumaroro Island ? Sorry Ric, I couldn't resist ! <:-) Don Neumann *************************************************************************** From Ric No doubt. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 13:32:09 EST From: Doug Brutlag Subject: New Mileage to Mili Atoll For Woody: Reran the calculations using your numbers and the results: Howland-Mili - 741 nautical miles/295 deg. true course Niku- Mili - 1023 nautical miles/308 deg. true course. Miles did not differ significantly enough to make any real difference and true course the same. Unless AE had a couple hundred gallons of extra fuel hidden somewhere in the Electra I cannot come up with any realistic scenario of how the fuel burn could have been manipulated anywhere near what it would take to do an about-face and reach the Gilberts, or for that matter why she & Fred would even want to try without psychologically profiling them as having suicidal tendencies. Doug Brutlag #2335 ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 13:35:41 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: Re: Evidence It is no wonder Amelia missed Howland what with map distances differing by well over a hundred miles. Stoker with his map calculates 988 statute miles from Howland to Mili. Caldwell calculates 868.21 statute miles for the same distance. ( My Nat. Geographic map shows about 789 statute miles). So if Amelia used one of Caldwell maps she might have missed Howland by a couple of hundred miles short, and hence several hundred miles closer to the Gilberts!!! Or maybe to Mili ! LTM, Ron Bright ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 13:40:51 EST From: David Katz Subject: Re: Autograph please...? > From Ric > > Just trying to recognize the meretricious character of your research. Whoa... Them's pretty strong words! David Evans Katz **************************************************************************** From Ric It was an experiment. He took "Bolinger Class Conspiracy" as a compliment. I just wondered how far we could go. It's not as if I accused him of being a sexagenarian. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 15:31:33 EST From: Ron Bright Subject: Re: Preponderence of Evidence For Alan Caldwell There may not be artifacts and clues elsewhere outside of Niku (except the famous blindfold) but other evidence exists to suggest or support our "dynamic duo" went down in the Marshall Is areas and ended up on Saipan. I would suggest you as an attorney closely review those witnesses and point out why they are either mistaken or lying. I have found that it is a formidable task taking on all of the witnesses starting with eleven year old Josephine Blanco Aikyama who in the "summer of 1937" contemporaneously reported to her mama she saw an unusual event at Tanapag Harbor. Who were those "white fliers", the "lady American pilot" in the twin motored, non-Japanese silver plane? A story she retold in 1960 to Linn Day, of the San Mateo Times, and later Briand and Goerner, and in 1946 to Dr. Casimir Sheft on Saipan. I can't quite figure it out yet. It is an extraordinary story. LTM Ron Bright **************************************************************************** From Ric Excuse me for jumping in here but 34 year old Josephine Akiyama (maiden name Blanco) telling a newspaper reporter in 1960 a story something she says she told her mother 26 years previously is not a contemporaneous source. It's pure anecdote. It has always amazed me that no one ever seems to notice why Mrs. Akiyama was talking to the reporter at the San Mateo Times in the first place. Josephine and her husband Maximo were engaged in a war reparations lawsuit against Japan for damage done to their Saipan property during the war. When Goerner first called the reporter to ask for Mr. Akiyama's number the reporter referred him to the Akiyama's attorney. The attorney, William Penaluna, admitted that he was the one who brought Mrs. Akiyama's story to the attention of the newspaper. It's all right there on page 2 of Goerner's book. I can't imagine why a lawyer would go out of his way to have his plaintiff client's name associated with the defendant's alleged abduction and murder of an American hero. Can you? Sheft's story is also anecdote that emerges only when Goerner tracks him down and asks him about it in 1960. If we tried to peddle transparent tales like that even as anecdotal evidence you guys would laugh us off the internet. LTM, Ric ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 15:33:22 EST From: Randy Jacobson Subject: Re: Autograph please...? Let poor Daryll masticate in peace, will ya? Sheesh! ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 15:36:42 EST From: Doug Brutlag Subject: Re: Evidence Ron Bright says: <> I didn't use a map for my numbers. I use an aviation version of celesticomp. I do have Jepp & DMA maps of the pacific suitable for navigation but the computer makes it a piece of cake and fits in my pocket as well when I go aviate. Doug Brutlag #2335 *************************************************************************** From Ric Confucious say, "Man with watch knows what time it is. Man with two watches never sure." ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 15:40:49 EST From: RC Sherman Subject: Evidence II To comment on Allen's tongue in cheek decimal distances .. > From Howland to Niku is 405.0531 Statute miles and 351.9877 >Nautical miles. [Etc...] Even the first decimal place is suspect. The CIA's data is based on an inaccurate model. The 'spherical earth' used for almost everyones trigonometric distance computations is 21,600 nm. in all circumferences; the earth is about 40 nm. longer around the equator than the 'model' used for computations, and 2 nm. less pole to pole. Thus AE's milage from Lae to How was somewhat greater than the figure usually given ..[for the fuel used enthusiasts] but Allens northerly & southerly distances are much closer to actual. RC [St. Joseph, CA] ************************************************************************** From Ric <> Remind me never to live next door to a target. ========================================================================= Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 15:43:30 EST From: Dick Pingrey Subject: Re: Transmissions To Don Neumann, Don, we have been through this a zillion times or it seems that way. I don't think there is any thing the pilots in the group could write that would change your reasoning nor does your logic change mine. None the less, here are a few brief points. To me and I think the other pilots the fuel running low simply means she was starting into her reserve fuel an still had about 4 hours of fuel remaining. The Coast Guard Captain may not have understood the running on the 157 - 337 line but certainly the navy and others got the implication and thought the Phoenix Islands were the most probably place to look. I would suggest the following as to what probably happened in the time between, "We must be on you..." and "running on the line 157 - 337" messages. When they arrived at the line of position that ran through Howland they were expecting to be very near Howland if their navigation had been accurate. Thus she transmitts, "We must be on you but can not see you". They evaluate their fuel situation and see that they are starting into the resurve fuel and she transmitts, "Fuel running low" indicating she is starting into the reserve fuel. They then start a run up the line on the 337 degree heading. After a relatively short run (possibly 20 to 30 minutes) they reverse course and head down the line heading 157 degrees. After passing the point where she turned northwest and continuing for another 20 to 40 minutes on the 157 heahing she sends her running on the 157-337 line message and they continue on their 157 heading. She still expects or at least hopes to find Howland on that heading but if she doesn't she will have at least told anyone who might be able to hear her what they are doing. Later messages that were not picked up by the Coast Guard are always possible because HF become less reliable as the sun rises higher and higher and she gets further and further to the south. Dick Pingrey in Selah (near Yakima, WA) 908C ********************************************************************* From Ric For what it's worth, I think Capt. Pingrey is bang on.